The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
Sky News is getting a proper pasting on Twitter over its big announcement.
P1
Question answers itself, doesn’t it? If they can’t be bothered learning, not much point expecting them to be able to teach.
And when Malcolm limps out of the partyroom with a bullshit NEG (if he gets that far), Anna will deliver the coup de grace. Good one Anna.
Simon² Katich® @ #395 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:13 pm
I am not having a debate with anyone on either of these subjects, as far as I know.
Just pointing out why – despite everything we have clearly known for decades – C02 emissions are still rising.
BK @ #393 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:11 pm
When does parliament resume? Turnbull does even worse when parliament is sitting.
zoomster says:
Monday, August 6, 2018 at 3:16 pm
frednk
No, I’m extending the tosser by telling them that near enough isn’t good enough and he needs to extend himself if he wants the S.
Your arguing with a tosser and I can tell you the only years I enjoyed in secondary school were the ones I could work at my own pace. The standard curriculum is as boring as shit. Bored kids find other things to interest them.
Rowe has Turnbull in his Abu Ghraib dressing gown again.
zoomster @ #401 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:21 pm
Also, how many teachers who got “satisfactory” marks because their own teachers believed they were working to their fullest capabilities – even if they didn’t actually do very well – are now working in our education system?
Actually, I think I may have known a few of these teachers 🙁
I will eat my hat if the LNP get a meaningful general election swing to them in NSW, especially if the March state election leaves them in minority territory and the occasional cabinet-level leaking escalates into full blown infighting.
SkyNews & The Australian also bashed on The Drum for racist attacks, following Tim S’s report.
Caroline Overington fired up: If the PM says something, should’t we report it?
Well….
Er, fred, students working at their own pace is exactly what I’m talking about….there’s a difference between that and not bothering.
..some of the best teachers I know struggled in school. That’s why they’re good; they understand the difficulties students face, and understand what it takes to engage them. On the other hand, I know of teachers with PhDs who absolutely suck.
Dutton will be irate over the Sky News backdown. A few days ago the Oz had an article where he berated big business for going all ‘politically correct’.
The shocker for Dutton is that Sky News is a Murdoch satellite.
Agree with Zoomster on less educated teachers. My best Maths teacher as a kid was 2 year trained … he could connect with students better than any other teacher we had.
Partly because China has increased its GDP by 10 fold in 20 years. Partly because of vested interests holding power over elected members of parliament. Partly because of waste. Sure, you can add Germany and others should have more Nuclear power. But doing so without context (the other factors) is misleading.
If I read the graphs correctly, Germany has reduced its emissions from 1990 by 30%, while increasing its GDP by 50%.
zoomster @ #412 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:48 pm
It is you who is struggling here, Z.
P1
No, I’m not. It’s just that you don’t have the necessary skills to process what I’m talking about. That was Gittins’ (the article I originally commented on) problem, too – he thinks he understands education but he doesn’t, and as a result his article was contradictory.
Of course, that’s one of the problems with education – it’s an area where, because everyone has been educated, everyone thinks they know what it’s about. And they don’t.
…but, of course, I do know you’re limited, P1, which is why I usually don’t bother to engage with you. After a certain point, your mind just closes down and you basically get bogged.
What are we struggling with? I want to know what this argument is about so I can jump in and have fun too!
Someone explain it to me.
Something to hide eh Uber Tuber ?
,
“Australia’s tactics used to turn back asylum-seeker boats must be kept secret or they will damage international relationships, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton was warned..
The document said revealing information about Operation Sovereign Borders “may affect Australia’s relations with foreign governments” and put international agreements at risk.”
.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/keep-boat-turnback-details-secret-report/news-story/a6ebef6e217620f226a6cb768e823fa1
My eye is drawn to the shadow cast by the fruit bowl. Is that what I think it is or is it a flourish of my imagination?
I also see a cat shadow but I am sure that is not correct.
Catching up, catching up, catching up (and possibly repeating)
TBF to @workmanalice
She did warn, when she refused to report parliamentary Dorothy Dixers, and Labor (here) cheered mightily, that she had no fear, nor favour, to any side of politics. And she’d report whatever she came across. I agree it has completely marred the investigation, but what reporter wouldn’t have reported it?
AS FOR FARMERS needing Govt assistance, in times of drought and flooding rains.
These are the folk that feed us: that’s why they get priority; that’s why they get assistance. It would be a pretty poor govt that didn’t care about feeding its population. And it’s why the manufacturers of plastic widgets don’t get the same support.
The bit that annoys the heck out of me about farmers, in my experience, is that they pay no tax, ever. They have so many ways to write off – just about everything, yet they’re the first to complain about being taxed out of existence. What? Show me a farmer who pays tax, and I’ll show you a farmer who has a bad accountant.
Still, we need to be fed, and we want our fresh milk, meat and veg/fruit. So what’s not to like about helping them to be sustainable in lean years. Farming is a hard slog, year in year out, ploughing, sowing, reaping, husbandry, culling, breeding, etc.
And, ultimately, get the fruit of their labour to your market.
kezza2 @ #422 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:58 pm
It’s Amy Remeikas that does not report Dixers. She’s with the Guardian.
Workman alice has been pursuing Cash about the AWU raid.
Simon² Katich® @ #415 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:50 pm
As you say, context is important …
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/10/10/why-arent-renewables-decreasing-germanys-carbon-emissions/
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/dossiers/energy-transition-and-climate-change
zoomster @ #417 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:55 pm
Oh, I understand what you’re talking about. I am merely pointing out how ridiculous and illogical your original contention was.
I also get that you don’t like having that pointed out.
Mr Whelans enquiry is not compromised he has his professional reputation to maintain…sure he will make recommendations on the evidence available…his recommendation will go to the nsw alp admin cmmee
A crown?
DisplayName @ #419 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
If you are wondering about what Zoomster and I are discussing, Zoomster contends that instead of giving a student an actual mark (e.g. in an exam) it is better to give someone a “satisfactory” rating if they don’t do very well but are trying as hard as they can (in the teacher’s estimation), and an “unsatisfactory” rating if they do extremely well but are not utilizing their full potential (again, in the teacher’s estimation).
I disagree.
Confessions @ #427 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:05 pm
It’s a facehugger. From Aliens.
P1
I think it depends on the purpose. Is the assessment for grading/sorting/filtering students or for the teacher to use in tailoring further teaching/learning?
DisplayName @ #430 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:14 pm
You’d have to ask Zoomster that one.
Player One @ #427 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:08 pm
Because you have no understanding of what she is talking about.
Personally, the idea has much merit. 🙂
GG
Thanks for that correction. Could’ve sworn it was workmanalice.
Nevertheless,. . .
by the way, loved your daughter Douzey’s Ophelia. What a great voice.
Any chance of getting the lyrics? My ears can’t decipher the words. Reminds me of my parents, when I’d get them to listen to something I liked, and they confessed they couldn’t understand the lyrics. Must be getting old.
Barney in Go Dau @ #432 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:16 pm
For assessing kindergarten kids, perhaps.
For assessing doctors or engineers (or even teachers 🙂 ) then I don’t think so.
Good oh. One of those articles states that the closing of East German dirty factories is partly the reason Germany has reduced its emissions by 30% since 1990. Sure ‘partly’, but the way they left the sentence there they insinuate it is ‘mostly’ the cause which isnt the case. The reduction was steady for 2 decades and closely correlates to the expansion of renewables. And this is in the face of increasing GDP over that time.
In context, we could include that Australia has increased its emissions by 30% since 1990.
I have stated before that I not against nuclear power being included in the mix especially as these are desperate times and we export the damn stuff anyway. So long as the sums add up – and an energy sum adder upperer tells me they do if we are taking emissions reductions seriously.
kezza2 @ #433 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:16 pm
I’ll try. But, she’s working at Edinburgh Comedy festival atm. So, it might be a couple of days.
a r:
Hideous, yet so totally Rowe!
Caroline Overington spinning spinning spinning. Should go into right wing politics.
Well, it looks like a pigs head to me.
SK,
Nuclear doesn’t add up. But SMRs might if the production trains are refined over time. Talking sub megawatt
It seems to me that tests are useful if you have specific knowledge or procedural skill in mind, but less so in situations that are open-ended, where optimal solutions are difficult to find (or don’t even exist), and knowledge is uncertain. Tests may even be counter-productive in the latter situation as they direct the energies of students and teachers down overly simplified, unrealistic paths.
Where do different professions fit in? What simple procedural knowledge/skills do teachers employ, for example? Can their job be done by following straightforward prescriptions?
GG
Gee, GG, your daughter’s getting out and about, isn’t she?
Edinburgh Comedy Festival. What next.
I heard a podcast of her from a Qld radio station (although it seemed like they branded her sound as “country”), sounded exactly like her newly released single. It’s quite haunting, I think. And catchy, so therefore branded as indie/pop, from their point of view,
Anyway, good on her; and you are rightly proud. I loved it. And I look forward to you posting the lyrics.
I’m going to be away for a few days, so I’ll check next week, say Wednesday, for your reply?
On the Gaff assault, AFL has to be the only sport in the world where you are better off being the attacker than the victim. Gaff got to play the rest of the match and Freo had to play one short. AFL actually rewards you for punching out an opponent. Brayshaw will be out for longer than Gaff and has to have surgery, teeth removed and eat a non-chew diet for six weeks which Gaff just misses six games.
The police will probably be too weak to charge Gaff with assault occasioning actual bodily harm and the AFL will ride it out and avoid bringing in red cards.
Dio:
My WCE fan facebook friends are saying Gaff came off worst because his Brownlow hopes are now shot.
And yes those comments are real and genuinely held.
The Drum was good; finally good people are calling the crap out. 100 points to Craig Emerson.
P1
No silly.
Use your head.
If it’s getting hotter then we use the sun.
Simon² Katich®
Lots of cats on his dressing gown.
Dio
Whatever other rule applies, one should be mandatory: Gaff not to play until the week after Brayshaw plays his first return game.
Boerwar @ #447 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:45 pm
How do you then deal with someone who attempts the same thing Gaff did but the other player is not seriously injured?