The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
BW
That doesn’t help Freo at all. The AFL is just condoning violence by not sending off someone. As a player, I could literally chainsaw off the heads of a few opposition players in the Grand Final and I’d be allowed to play out the game and collect my winners medal, although my celebrations would probably be curtailed a bit by the police.
Guy on the Drum from National Farmer’s thingy thinks NEG will solve climate change. They deserve more drought if that’s the case.
Qureensland and Victoria are absolutely correct. Who in their right mind would sign up for something without knowing the final details?
The blame lies with Turnbull. Proper procedure would be to present the ENG to the states AFTER being agreed by the L/NP party room, not prior to a big party room bun fight.
Husar tells a bit from her side.
Ms Husar said in a statement that the internal Labor investigation into the claims made against her was now so compromised by damaging leaks that she had no choice but to reveal details of the allegations and her defence to them.
Fairfax Media understands that Ms Husar has retained the high-profile Sydney defamation silk Sandy Dawson, while her lawyer has sent letters threatening defamation action to Jeremy Anderson, BuzzFeed and News Corp Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fighting-to-survive-emma-husar-details-her-side-of-the-story-20180806-p4zvva.html
Diogenes @ #443 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:38 pm
Couple of things.
1. As every one knows with Aussie Rules, there are no rules. You can get a free kick for grabbing someone’s jumper. But, knocking someone unconcious or cause serious physical injury to someone goes without sanction.
2. So send off in this situation is a ridiculous concept.
3. This incident is pretty nasty. But, given the amount of contact and aggravation in the game, I’m thankful that it is only an occasional event. The most egregious incidents that come to my mind are this one, Cameron’s hit on the Brisbane Lion player earlier this year (the player ended up with bleeding on the brain), Barry Hall’s hit on Staker and of course Leigh Matthews on Neville Bruns back in the 80s.
I’ve seen other incidents. But they are the ones I’ve always regarded as deliberate thuggery for itself
4. Gaff is going to be dealt with in the same way other thuggish incidents have been in the past. Whether that offends your sensitivities, is neither here nor there. My guess is he’ll get about 6-8 weeks and won’t play again this year. However, most followers of the game will not be clamouring for red cards despite what the MSM might tell you.
Dio
I agree with red card and 17 players.
But I would also have a blanket rule: perps do not play until the week after their victims play – regardless of whatever other punishments apply.
For example, one of the things I think we don’t properly convey in the teaching of mathematics and science is the messiness of real mathematics and science. They get taught as a sequence of discoveries/inventions that worked, ignoring all the things that were tried and failed.
If you’re trying to discover new things, you have to try things you’re unsure will work, you’ll frequently run into dead ends, have to backtrack, and be able to pick yourself up and carry on. You need to be creative, but creativity is no guarantee of success. It’s also helpful to be thorough, rigorous, and have discipline enough to apply certain skills over and over (the kind of skills you can test) but that’s no guarantee of success either.
What is pass/fail in those kinds of situations? Are tests an appropriate instrument?
Diog
The suggestion in my family is that the attacker should be out of the game for at least twice as long as their victim. If their victim never comes back, neither do they.
GG
I know most aren’t clamoring for red cards but that’s my point. The AFL and its supporters are highly tolerant of violence that every other sport in the world wouldn’t tolerate. In fact, you get REWARDED if you are violent enough to knock someone out so they can’t come back on.
AFL nowhere as violent as American Football.
I do agree that a red card (cannot come back on but can be replaced) would work – I see that in amateur league every week.
Diogenes @ #458 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:04 pm
Rubbish!
It’s a contact sport. If it’s too awful for you support three dimensional chess instead.
LU – sure about that? It all depends on the price of carbon and financing….
AFL definitely needs a red card system. One classic incident was the Port, Brisbane grand final in 2004. Brisbane fullback Alastair Lynch had announced his retirement before the game. Very early Lynch attempted to take out Port Adelaide full forward Darryl Wakelin with a full on head punching unprovoked attack. Fortunately Wakelin showed some agility and managed to dodge most of the punches.
After the match Lynch got a 10-match ban and $15,000 penalty. What a joke. Had he been able to seriously damage Wakelin it may well have helped Brisbane win rather than lose. The penalty was entirely meaningless. Sending off is the only way to prevent this sort of calculated thuggery.
Fairfax Media understands that Ms Husar has retained the high-profile Sydney defamation silk Sandy Dawson, while her lawyer has sent letters threatening defamation action to Jeremy Anderson, BuzzFeed and News Corp Australia.
They would be able to call Nicholas as proof that they encouraged others to further damage her reputation. Looking more and more like a right wing Machiavellian effort very poorly executed.
I know the powers that be don’t like this poll, but there is still something attractive about it.
@GhostWhoVotes
2h2 hours ago
More
#ReachTEL Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 43 (-5.2 since election) ALP 57 (+5.2) #auspol
Spence @ #462 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:11 pm
But he didn’t. Lynch was incapable of doing anything to affect Wakelin. Port won the Grand Final. So, the ultimate justice was done.
Wakelin was the full back not the full forward.
FWIW i have spoken to Lynch about that day and he is still embarrassed and totally remorseful of his behaviour that day.
The NRL clamped down on the worst of the thuggery some time back. Players can be and are sent off for deliberate violence and their team plays on one down.
DisplayName says:
Monday, August 6, 2018 at 7:01 pm
For example, one of the things I think we don’t properly convey in the teaching of mathematics and science is the messiness of real mathematics and science. They get taught as a sequence of discoveries/inventions that worked, ignoring all the things that were tried and failed.
1+1 equals a number between 1 and 3. You are not taught that in school.
Labor is correct and after all it was LNP who killed Carbon Pricing.
This is revenge attack.
And how Labor should play.
Not be weak as a four X beer.
Thank doG for that.
https://youtu.be/Ata8F7liAx0?t=10s
Also I think Farmers should not get anything.
They keep voting LNP/National Party.
They didn’t help protect other industries.
Yes, and the context Zoomster was discussing was primary and secondary school education – a critical, formative stage of life when children are learning how to learn, discovering their interests, learning that effort often precedes motivation, developing a work ethic, building basic intrapersonal and interpersonal skills, and so on.
She was not talking about professional training. She isn’t saying that professionals should be let loose on the world without being competent to practise.
Tries hard. Satisfactory.
Achieves no competencies. Unsatisfactory.
I would love to see a red card/no replacement system in the AFL. Should be fun.
“LU – sure about that? It all depends on the price of carbon and financing….”
Nuke plants…….consider the cost of insurance in the event of a serious accident.
@Citizen
I expected this, and am glad to see it happen. There is no way any state with a genuine commitment to curtailing climate change could give the Federal Coalition a “Blank Cheque” for the policy called NEG, but with few real details available.
I fully expect that, as Catherine Murphy noted last Saturday in the Guardian:
But, you know what, if Victoria did support the NEG, the Federal Government would still rain down fire and fury upon them every day from now until the Victoria November state election. It would just be about different things – African Gangs anyone?
I feel very sorry for Victoria. The Andrews government is not perfect, and no democratic government that manages to get the support of a bit more than 50% of the constituents ever will be. However, I think their chances of being returned are slim – there is no strong media voice that supports them.
As a Sydney-sider, I particularly feel sorry for the many people in Melbourne who will be impacted by Guy Matthews free-for-all for developers. He was the genius behind the Fishermans Bend redevelopment, which many Liberal MPs profited from, but which was a planing disaster when trying to put together a good community living space.
Fishermans Bend was a good idea – I fully support urban renewal, and also medium to high-density housing in cities, and live in such an area. However, in NSW, I have watched all planning controls be dismantled since the advent of our current Liberal state government. All “value capture” goes to developer’s profits. No new public transport CAPACITY is provided. No community is planned, and developer’s providing parks / greenspace is no longer a requirement. No parking spaces need be provided by the developer. If Sydney was Paris or London, the latter would be fine, but the truth is, you have no hope if getting your kids to sport our other activities in Sydney without a car.
Disclaimer: I no longer own a car, and use Carshare, but help occasionally with the Grandkids. Public transport in Sydney is shocking. What can take you 10 mins by car, can take over an hour by public transport.
Zoidlord “They keep voting LNP/National Party.”
If auto workers did that we’d still have an auto industry.
Zoidlord @ #446 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
Only one of us is silly. We will have to agree to disagree about which one.
A lot but not all farmers I’ve met hate greenies, foreigners, anybody telling them how to manage their land, gays, intelligence, city dwellers, trees, progressive ideas.
A few I’ve met are the best people on earth.
Nicholas @ #468 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:20 pm
A subject on which you are an expert, I will grant.
It would be a surprise if John Whelan and Sandy Dawson ended up in the same political party meeting
@P1
That be you.
Because Nuclear is old tech.
Once you’ve invented/discovered some mathematics, it is usually straightforward to compute/calculate with it. That’s the kind of thing you can test. Invention/discovery of mathematics is much harder to test.
Knowledge of science “facts” (and how they have changed over time) is easy to test. Some skills are easy to test (communication, processing data, lab skills, etc). Scientific invention/discovery is much harder to test.
Unfortunately, thinking mathematically is, in the imagination of most, reduced to merely calculating/computing. Science doesn’t have that kind of image problem (as far as I’m aware) though it may have other more subtle problems with how it is perceived to work at present, especially with those on the conservative and right side of politics who clearly don’t have a clue :-P.
Are any Bludgers watching Leigh Sales getting Malsplained? I couldn’t bear to.
Sales interviewing Trumble on Reefgate. Asked all the wrong questions and could not get off the subject fast enough. 😛
Matthew Guy seems from this distance to be a thoroughly nasty piece of work. I hope he doesn’t get anywhere near the levers of power. And the Victorian Liberals deserve several terms in Opposition for that “side letter”.
David Marler
@Qldaah
43s44 seconds ago
Did @TurnbullMalcolm just claim on @abc730 that @Tony_Burke gave GBRF $12m? Did I hear that right? #ReefGate
0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
Sales could have necked Mal over #reefgate there but passed onto other issues. Frankly there are so many stuff ups it’s hard to keep a coherent narrative.
Anthony Albanese
Verified account @AlboMP
13s14 seconds ago
So @TurnbullMalcolm says the GBR Foundation advance payment without a tender is ok because Parliament has not blocked supply #GoodGrief
Zoidlord @7:47PM “Did @TurnbullMalcolm just claim on @abc730 that @Tony_Burke gave GBRF $12m? Did I hear that right?”
Yes, with proper due process. He mentioned it in his interview on Insiders yesterday:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mjiB9PyLyvc
Kristina Keneally
Verified account @KKeneally
54m54 minutes ago
Here @JoshFrydenberg does not deny that CSIRO scientists will now need to apply to the miners & bankers in the @GBRFoundation to access public money for the Great Barrier Reef
#reefgate
The story from @rachelbaxendale –
Zoidlord @ #482 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:42 pm
And coal is new? You are just being ridiculous.
@P1
Coal and Nuclear are has been old tech.
Bit like LNP policies, really.
This is interesting:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fighting-to-survive-emma-husar-details-her-side-of-the-story-20180806-p4zvva.html
Douglas and Milko,
Andrews will win in a canter.
Unless and until, say, an MP is charged, the “red shirts rorts” affair is a big yawn. Not least because the amounts involved are pretty small beer.
As for Guy, Labor are keeping their powder dry: a lot of well-connected Liberal Party donors made out like bandits when he rezoned Fishermans Bend overnight. Then there’s the lobster with the mobster ….
The Victorian Liberals have been taken over by happy-clappers and fundies: it’ll be fun to watch Guy squirm when he’s asked on the campaign trail if he’ll allow a private member’s bill to recriminalise abortion to be voted on.
Finally, memories of the uselessness of the last Coalition government are still pretty fresh.
Talk that Andrews is likely to go down is just horserace commentary. You’ve still got to be pretty damned awful to lose government after only one term.
The Handmaidens’s fail. Hope she and Mal have a nice meal.
Leigh for Sale must have forgotten how to interupt rudely. She should go and look at a few of her older interviews with Bill Shorten.
Malsplaining Mal has her eating of his hand, begging for some more crumbs to fall from the big table.
Absolutely pathetic.
I understand 4Corners tonight will have you deleting Facebook, if you haven’t already
“Zoidlord @7:47PM “Did @TurnbullMalcolm just claim on @abc730 that @Tony_Burke gave GBRF $12m? Did I hear that right?””
I’m Not sure about the suns involved but Cassidy quizzed Burke about this on insiders. Burke pointed out there was an actual application and it was assessed under existing guidelines. So, not an ‘apples with apples’ comparison.