Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Peter Dutton hired a lawyer to block a critically ill baby being treated in Australia. How is that even possible? He did it with our tax$ on our behalf.This seems to be an everyday event. Evil has crept up on us. https://t.co/HqYScwo8ui— Peter Lalor (@plalor) August 4, 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/03/critically-ill-refugee-baby-and-parents-to-be-flown-from-nauru-to-sydney-for-care

    Disgusting conduct from Dutton… and nothing to be heard from Labor.

    Shame on them.

  2. Fess

    Between the Koch Bros, the Mercers, Eric Prince and ors, they are doing everything to destroy democratic institutions.
    It is that serious
    See what Turnbull has seen fit to do by giving his rich mates 450 million dollars and you see where all this is headed

  3. Because we don’t train enough of our citizens.

    We need to make education and training free for all citizens and ensure sufficient aggregate spending to support full employment. Some of the federal government’s spending should be targeted at direct job creation for the unemployed in a scheme that makes a universal, unconditional offer of a minimum wage job to anyone who wants one. Full employment exists when there are more job vacancies than there are job-seekers.

    We don’t need a big skilled migration program. A small skilled migrant intake of ten or twenty thousand per year would be enough. It’s good to get an infusion of skills and ideas from elsewhere. But the immigration program should focus mainly on refugees. There is an ethical reason to accept more people in dire humanitarian need.

    A gross migration intake of 70,000 per year (net migration intake of zero) would be fine. Natural increase last year was 166,000. We could have a net migration intake of zero and the population would keep growing for 20 years because of population momentum.

  4. Vic:

    I thought Schmidt’s prediction that the next presidential elections will have a thirst for ‘new’ to be interesting. I just hope this doesn’t lead to the Democrats preselecting a ‘star candidate’ who is largely untried and untested on the national stage.

  6. Steve777 @ #1846 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    Here’s a rant I posted in the comments on Ms Murphy’s article:

    You are right in pointing out that energy and climate policy in this country is a mess. In fact, it makes a dog’s breakfast look like a paradigm of excellence in organisation. And who’s fault is that? Five years ago, we had a plan in place. It wasn’t perfect, but it sure beats what we have now, which can be best described as “chaotic inaction”. Power prices were much lower that they are now and emissions were coming down. Then came the Abbott Government.

    The main reason that we have no viable energy and climate policy now is that powerful vested interests do not want one. The fossil fuel industry, especially coal miners, want to keep the game going for as long as possible, like the tobacco industry before them. Others business interests, while having no particular brief for coal, do not want to incur additional costs or regulation that might result from effective climate action. And the Coalition parties are determined to support these vested interests in their position.

    With the wisdom of hindsight, it is possible to see where Labor, the Greens and others concerned about climate change might have done better. But make no mistake, it’s not the “political class” to blame. It is the the Liberal and National parties and those vested interested that own them. The only division in the Liberal Party is between those determined to take no action on climate change and those who think we need to make some token effort.

    The problem with this is she’s a news journalist. This is not news!

  7. Maybe I lived in a Parallel Universe in 2013; maybe not, because I recall the KRudd promised to “terminate” the “carbon tax” by … bringing forward the carbon price trading system. In other words accelerating the transition period from 3 years to 2 years. That seemed to be a very good idea to me at the time for the following reasons.

    After Abbott and a compliant, indeed partisan media – including a culpable CPG, completely fucked up the language of the debate vis “the carbon tax”, which for all her strengths Gillard was not able to neutralise, the debate needed to be reset. Taking advantage of Combet’s breakthrough in adopting and incorporating our carbon pricing scheme with the European scheme already up and running made a 3 year transition totally unnecessary. It’s just a shame that Rudd didn’t roll Gillard in March 2013 because then treasurer Bowen could have included the switch in that year’s budget for it to start on 1 July. That could have completely reset the political narrative leading into the election later tha year. Alas.

    But I’m guessing in The Murph’s Parallel Universe that makes Rudd a wrecker alongside Abbott.

    Have I missed anything, or gotten my basic facts wrong? Please let me know …

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1956 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:25 pm

    Maybe I lived in. Parallel Universe in 2013; maybe not, because I recall the KRudd promised to “terminate” the “carbon tax” by … bringing forward the carbon price trading system. In other words accelerating the transition period from 3 years to 2 years. That seemed to be a very good idea.

    After Abbott and a compliant, indeed partisan media – including a culpable CPG, completely fucked up the language of the debate vis “the carbon tax”, which for all her strengths Gillard was not able to neutralise, the debate needed to be reset. Taking advantage of Combet’s breakthrough in adopting and incorporating our carbon pricing scheme with the European scheme already up and running made a 3 year transition totally unnecessary. It’s just a shame that Rudd didn’t roll Gillard in March 2013 because then treasurer Bowen could have included the switch in that year’s budget for it to start on 1 July. That could have completely reset the political narrative leading into the election later tha year. Alas.

    But I’m guessing in The Murph’s Parallel Universe that make Rudd a wrecker alongside Abbott.

    Have I missed anything, or gotten my basic facts wrong? Please let me know …

    You’ve missed the chapter where Rudd was an unmitigated undermining “cunt” totally self obsessed and unwilling to support the broad Labor principles he’s always tells us he believed in!

  10. …It’s just a shame that Rudd didn’t roll Gillard in March 2013 because then treasurer Bowen could have included the switch in that year’s budget for it to start on 1 July. That could have completely reset the political narrative leading into the election later tha year. Alas…

    The internal treachery/destruction of the Govt was the inescapable narrative.

  12. This article shows how deeply the Turnbulls and the Hughes and the Liberal and National parties are involved with Chinese Property Developers (and for the information of fatheads like Rex Douglas whose constant bleats of Lib-Lab same-same, Labor have a specific clause in their donation rules that excludes money from Property Developers, of any kind):

    The Chinese developers at the centre of a scandal involving disgraced former MP Daryl Maguire hired a Liberal lobbyist firm just days after they came under the spotlight in a corruption hearing.

    The NSW lobbyist register shows Barton Deakin was engaged by Country Garden Australia on July 20, just a week after a secret phone tap revealed Mr Maguire claimed the developers were his clients…

    Another Liberal-aligned lobbyist firm, Crosby Textor’s property advisory CT International and Corporate Advisory, has had Country Garden as clients since April last year among other developers, the registry shows.

    The former Liberal Opposition leader, Kerry Chikarovski, also appears several times on the Department of Planning and Environment’s register which lists contact between staff and lobbyists.

    The register also shows Harry Hughes, the nephew of prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, became a lobbyist for property developers within a month of leaving planning minister Anthony Roberts’ office in September 2017.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/chinese-property-developers-turn-to-liberal-lobbyists-amid-icac-storm-20180802-p4zv7l.html

    No wonder Lucy Turnbull was gifted her own plaything called ‘The Greater Sydney Commission’. Paid for by the taxpayer no doubt.

  13. “The internal treachery/destruction of the Govt was the inescapable narrative.”

    That may be so, Rex, however will you have the courage and integrity to accept my analysis of what Rudd proposed doing in 2013 upon resuming the Prime Ministership?

  14. Rex is not blaming the ALP for Dutton`s actions, he is criticising the ALP for not criticising Dutton`s actions.

  15. On his radio show, Hadley Snr is forever telling “bleeding heart” magistrates, judges and the DPP to throw the book at the accused. He spends a fair (EDIT) portion of his 2GB show ranting and raving about accused offenders being let off too lightly. Hopefully the judicial system will ignore Hadley in this case, just as they (hopefully) ignore his rants on 2GB.

    Radio broadcaster Ray Hadley says his police officer son, who was allegedly busted with cocaine on Friday, is battling “serious” mental health issues.

    Daniel Hadley, a NSW Police officer, was yesterday charged with possessing 0.79 grams of cocaine worth $200. He was off-duty at the time after suffering a leg injury.

    Speaking to reporters, Ray Hadley said he was “angry and perplexed” upon finding out his son, a “respected police officer, was involved in such a matter”, adding that it later turned into sadness.

    The 28-year-old officer was being monitored by the Professional Standards Command based on a tip off. He was granted conditional bail.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-04/hadley-says-cop-son-daniel-has-mental-health-issues/10073922

  16. ”
    Wayne says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 4:06 pm
    You all know deep down in your hearts that our great LNP will win the next election by a landslide and our great PM will lead our great nation where if shorten was to get in God help us we will have people drowning at sea and back in to debt
    ”
    What is happening to me today. I am replying to Wayne’s posts. Could it be because they moved from “broken record” stage to ignorant stage? or could it be because I responding to Rex posts? or do I have more time on my hands?

    However, the reason for above Wayne post is for below sentence:
    “if shorten was to get in God help us we will have people drowning at sea and back in to debt”
    So who will get back in debt if people drown in sea? If Wayne is implying that the country will get back in debt if people drown, why will we get in debt if people drown? Also, it appears Wayne does not know LNP has doubled the debt in last 5 years.

  17. Tom the first and best @ #1963 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:53 pm

    Rex is not blaming the ALP for Dutton`s actions, he is criticising the ALP for not criticising Dutton`s actions.

    And he’s making that assumption based upon the fact that it hasn’t been reported in the media. Not that it hasn’t happened. Or that there aren’t people in Labor actively and persistently campaigning for the refugees and criticising Dutton. Like these 2 groups on the home page of the Refugee Action Coalition:

    Labor for Refugees (NSW)
    Labor for Refugees (Vic)

    http://www.refugeeaction.org.au/

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1699 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:53 pm

    “The internal treachery/destruction of the Govt was the inescapable narrative.”

    That may be so, Rex, however will you have the courage and integrity to accept my analysis of what Rudd proposed doing in 2013 upon resuming the Prime Ministership?

    Don’t you talk about courage and integrity while attempting to polish the actions of team Rudd. You’re funny. 😆

    We had a progressive minority Govt that had the broad support of the senate… only for it to be destructed from within all the while in full knowledge that an Abbott Govt, with all its denialism, racism, cruelty and destruction, would be the result.

    Courage and integrity indeed.

  19. You are deflecting Rex into RGR Leadershit. I’ll take that as an admission that you have been lying and I’ve caught you out.

    So, the answer to my question is obviously, “Rex: no, I possess neither courage or integrity”.

    Good to know.

  20. ”
    poroti says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 4:30 pm
    Philip Adams on Truffles. Ouch. Use Google trick, pay walled. Outline did not work for me.

    But what power, Malcolm? What’s been the point? The purpose? You will go down in history as the invisible man.

    Another Malcolm, my old friend Malcolm Muggeridge, once made the deadly observation of David Frost that “he rose without trace”. That will be Turnbull’s political epitaph.

    Malcolm Turnbull the invisible man

    In Australian politics, camouflage often begins with deceptive packaging. Over the decades, any outfit branding itself Democratic wasn’t – just as One Nation, hinting at harmony, is haven to every imaginable hatred. . And the Liberal Party? Liberal? The Nats, once claiming to be the farmer’s party, are now unashamedly the parliamentary representatives of fossil fuelishness. Only the Hunters and Shooters wear clear IDs. But it is the PM himself who is the champion of chameleons. Yesterday upon the stair we met the man who wasn’t there. No one could accuse Tony Abbott of invisibility, of camouflaging his intentions and ambitions. He advertises them louder than Harvey Norman. But our Malcolm is the master of disguise and duplicity.

    I’ve told the story of Kerry Packer introducing me to young Malcolm just back from his Rhodes scholarship at Oxford – “never get between this kid and a pile of money”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/columnists/phillip-adams/malcolm-turnbull-the-invisible-man/news-story/cd9532714ff87a9f13772d6af4ad1862
    ”
    The following statement by Philip Adams caught my eye:
    “In Australian politics, camouflage often begins with deceptive packaging.”
    Recently, I introduced a phrase “Tiger with Cow face”. What it means is that people are deceived because they think that creature is docile like cow. But in reality it is a man-eating Tiger. I derived it from Sanskrit word “GoMukhaVaygra”. Go=Cow; Mukha=faced; Vyagra=Tiger.

  21. Thanks for the Bill Maher link and Steve Schmidt’s chilling expression of America’s democracy in peril. He’s a regular panelist on MSNBC mostly on programs hosted by his former Republican colleague, Nicole Wallace. In one sense, their withering criticism of Trump constitutes atonement for having created and kept viable that prototypical Trumpesque monster on a presidential ticket, Sarah Palin.

    As revealed in ‘Game Change’, it became obvious that Palin was in a depressed state and couldn’t survive the Veep debate with Biden. Their solution was to violate not only the format of this debate but a half-century of televised debates. Palin simply brought along cue cards covering the usual debate topics, regardless of how closely these cards might relate to the specific questions she was asked. As luck would have it, most of her answers were not wildly irrelevant, and so the MSM “normalised” this farce (the Fox focus group immediately voting her the winner, of course) instead of alerting Americans to how utterly unfit she was.

    This is how Slate.com reviewed Palin’s debate performance: “She said she wasn’t going to answer some of Moderator Gwen Iifil’s questions but then at the end took credit for taking tough questions. I guess that’s what they call chutzpah in Wasilla. Nevertheless, she and her allies will keep up the fight because press-bashing rallies the base in a way that is not unappealing to middle-of-the-road voters.”

    Credit where it’s due: Palin didn’t say the press is “the enemy of the people”. It was heaps more effective to delight her campaign rallies with a version of the line that was suggested to Palin in an email from McCain HQ, which included Schmidt. Here’s the line: “This is not a man who sees America as you and I do — as the greatest force for good in the world. This is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country.”

    And so America began dipping its toe into the Trough of Trumpism.

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 5:47 pm
    Peter Dutton hired a lawyer to block a critically ill baby being treated in Australia. How is that even possible? He did it with our tax$ on our behalf.This seems to be an everyday event. Evil has crept up on us. https://t.co/HqYScwo8ui— Peter Lalor (@plalor) August 4, 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/03/critically-ill-refugee-baby-and-parents-to-be-flown-from-nauru-to-sydney-for-care

    Disgusting conduct from Dutton… and nothing to be heard from Labor.

    Shame on them.

    It’s been explained to you a hundred times Rex. Labor can’t do anything about it until they get back into government.

    Anything they say about it now will only be used by the scumbag Liberals to make that task more difficult.

  30. And so America began dipping its toe into the Trough of Trumpism.

    Well in the opinion of the historian on the panel, that descent happened long before Palin got herself the prospective VP nomination. In her view the descent into Trumpism (racism, sexism, white privilege) began in 1964 presumably with their so-called southern strategy.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D38INfcIMro

  31. Tom the first and best @ #1976 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:39 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/08/01/essential-research-51-49-labor-4/comment-page-40/#comment-2852163

    Labour for Refugees is not an option on the ballot paper for the general voting public but an internal group that does not seem to be getting very far in moving the ALP`s position. People are entitled to judge a party on its policies and statements, even if there are some people within the party who want to change it.

    I’m sure they’ll be pleased to know that you think their efforts have been fruitless and are thus worthless.

  32. Victoria,
    Spot on. No other commentator I’ve heard or read characterises the clear and present danger to America’s democratic republic of Trump’s “fuhrer cult” more cogently than Steve Schmidt.

  34. Fess,
    I was a young American voter in first decade of the Southern Strategy, which was delivered within a John Howard genre of dog whistles. The whistling became louder and more shrill with, say, Reagan’s “welfare queens riding around in Cadillacs”. Imho, Palin was the first candidate on a major party’s presidential ticket to go the mongrel with a bullhorn.

  35. Some of KKeneally’s interesting tweets

    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    Well, well, well. Let’s have a look at this. And then read my thread, please. #Reefgate
    Karl Stefanovic
    @karlstefanovic
    The @GBRFoundation deserves and will use every cent in its arsenal to save the reef. I’ve no doubt their research into reef dna and conservation is the key. Let’s give them supporting space to prove it.
    11:29 AM · Aug 4, 2018
    555
    Retweets
    672
    Likes
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    Replying to @KKeneally
    Here’s @karlstefanovic on air promoting a report done by Deloitte for the @GBRFoundation in July 2017
    Embedded
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    Deloitte is a member of the @GBRFoundation Chairman’s Panel. They pay $20k a year to have their brand associated with the Great Barrier Reef.
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    But it gets more interesting. A month before @karlstefanovic interviewed Deloitte on air, The Today Show announced a “We Love Australia” trip to celebrate its 35th anniversary.
    Embedded
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    “Karl, Lisa, Richard, Tim and Sylvia’s adventures will begin with a special program showcasing the Great Barrier Reef, broadcast from Hamilton Island in the picturesque Whitsundays.”
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    Have a look who sponsored @karlstefanovic ‘s trip to the Great Barrier Reef so he could interview their Chairman’s Panel member Deloitte live on air. Yep. You guessed it. The @GBRFoundation
    Embedded
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    8h
    So @karlstefanovic – while you are publicly advocating for the @GBRFoundation – would would you like to declare any conflict of interests as well?

  36. Wayne @ #1875 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    There will not be a federal election till May 2019 and it will be our great LNP who will go on to win it by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be PM till he decides to retire from politics and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers

    I missed you! You little thruster, you.

  37. Prof Higgins:

    Obama as an African American (the first black presidential candidate) was always going to draw the worst excesses of the Republican filth campaigning. It just happened to be Palin who took up the cudgels, but in all honesty, I reckon any other GOP VP candidate would’ve done exactly the same if they’d been in her place.

    They’ve been cultivating the racist thing for 50+ year now after all.

  40. Fess,
    Point taken. Do you reckon Paul Ryan and Romney took up the cudgels against Obama in a similar vein as Palin’s attacks?

  41. This tweet made me laugh

    Conversation
    Michael West
    Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    PM and @GBRFoundation Joint Communique to @karlstefanovic : Karl, shut up
    2:54

  42. Steve777 @ #1933 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    Sandi Logan quoted by Rex “But the attempts by #RayHadley to influence a serious criminal matter now before the courts pleading extenuating circumstances such as mental health, injury, inspector’s apology “letting son down” are disgraceful”

    Surely Ray hasn’t gone soft on crime all of a sudden?

    Hmm. I don’t know the bloke, but from comments here it would seem he suffers from a very tight radius of empathy.

  47. Prof. Higgins @ #1994 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    Fess,
    Point taken. Do you reckon Paul Ryan and Romney took up the cudgels against Obama in a similar vein as Palin’s attacks?

    I think any attacks that were dog whistles against his cultural background were of the same vein. Same as the dog whistles against HClinton for being a woman.

    And it bears repeating that when Trump was out there as a candidate saying terrible things about Mexican immigrants, African Americans, his behaviour towards women, where were the majority of Republican leaders? Mostly silent. They still are.

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