The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.
The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.
Perhaps proof the press still have some influence. If the TPP increases over the next two weeks ( to labor), they can take some joy. They are no longer important players, but they are players.
A staggering result, reinforcing Newspoll. The media are all-important. Murdoch rules.
Yes, truly staggering. I am totally staggered, if not stagged.
Emma Husar MP
@emmahusarmp
[I’m a survivor of DV with kids at home. Stalking my house and my family – by sitting in a car with dark windows out the front – is poor form, not in the public interest & dangerous @dailytelegraph. I shouldn’t have to call the police again.]
Speaking of Murdoch scum.
Morning all.
Paul Manafort is in court today facing fraud charges. Prosecutors have called their first witness, Bernie Sanders’ chief strategist from his 2016 campaign.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2018/07/31/paul-manafort-trial-live-coverage/?utm_term=.20339526d43c
Peter Lewis of EssentialPoll explains why popularity of an Opposition Leader is a worthless statistic, why conviction outweighs transactions, and why it doesn’t matter for actual voting. He finishes with this…
The irony is that the platform Labor is preparing for the election is among the most progressive in a generation with increased economic intervention, Indigenous treaty, a 50% renewable energy target, even a republic already announced policy. These may all be dismissed as transactions too, until the point that Shorten gets the chance to exercise power and turn his promises into a program.
So here’s my positive take on Shorten for what it’s worth. The first Gen X leader of his generation, he will win government on traditional Labor values and govern as a progressive centrist with the interpersonal skills to manage a united and ambitious team with a long-term plan for a fairer Australia.
Maybe at this point Shorten will win the personal approval of Australian voters. Or maybe not. Because, as results on the weekend proved yet again, it really doesn’t matter.
• Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential and a Guardian Australia columnist
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/bill-shorten-will-win-on-traditional-labor-values-his-popularity-is-secondary
One of the more bizarre revelations from Manafort’s trial: he owned a $15,000 jacket made entirely from ostrich feathers.
I hate to be a spoilsport, but the results in Braddon and Longman could well be consistent with a national 49-51 2pp. Especially if you were to adjust the results in the by-elections to take account of:
1. voters taking advantage of the “free hit” they get against a Government in by-elections;
2. the reluctance of voters to ditch a new member after one term (or less than one term);
3. the poor candidates fielded by the Libs.
The result for the Libs in Mayo was bad, but that’s not really indicative of all that much nationally: eg, any more say that the equally bad result for Labor against Wilkie in Denison (now Clark) in 2016.
Labor supporters have got every reason to celebrate the fact that the dog didn’t bark in the night in Braddon or Longman. We can now assume that any talk of leadership instability will cease and the party faithful and workers have received a huge boost leading up to the start of the election campaign.
But the results on Saturday didn’t suddenly make the task of removing an incumbent government in an election any easier. It’s a task that, by my count, Labor has only achieved 3 times out of its last 17 attempts (the Libs have managed 4 out of 11). With the polling relatively close, Labor still has a mountain to climb: even with the potential advantage they will get from the redistributions in Vic and the ACT. Australians are cautious voters, and don’t tend to vote out Federal governments unless they are demonstrably in complete chaos (eg, Labor in 1975 and 2013) or until they have become thoroughly sick of the incumbents: a process which typically takes 3 or more terms.
Therefore, in my mind, the key question is the extent to which the public see the Turnbull Government as being chaotic. The fact that Turnbull remains relatively popular is possibly a bad sign for Labor in this regard. But a lot can happen before polling day and, as I predicted a few weeks ago, Abbott is now out and about strutting his stuff again.
Morning all
Does anyone on PB listen to 2GB?
Kristina Keneally’s Tweets
Kristina Keneally
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I’ll be joining @AlanJones next on @2GB873 this morning to talk about what we learned about $444m ‘murky’ grant that the Prime Minister personally gave the Great Barrier Reef Foundation – Senate inquiry hearing this week.
Looking forward to watch the trends in the polls over time during this period post-by-elections.
Will the opinion polls results be totally insensitive to the obvious instability that is rapidly increasing within the Coalition parties as a result of the by-elections?
… Stay tuned…. 🙂
“So here’s my positive take on Shorten for what it’s worth. The first Gen X leader of his generation, he will win government on traditional Labor values and govern as a progressive centrist with the interpersonal skills to manage a united and ambitious team with a long-term plan for a fairer Australia.”
That’s perfectly spot on!… Shorten has finally framed the Federal election as a clash of world views: the Coalition old, tired and failed Neoliberalism-Conservatism vs the new, forward-looking, progressive Social Democracy offered by the ALP.
Funny enough, this massive ideological clash is not coming with the emotional excitement of an “It’s Time” campaign, not with the attractiveness of a prophet-like personality such as that of Gough Whitlam. The advance of the ALP Social Democratic offer for a better, fairer and more sustainable Australia is coming with the calm, strength, determination, hard work of a Professional team that is both united and also humble and sensitive to the voice of the People.
Perhaps paradoxically Shorten, the listener, will be one of our greatest leaders!
So, the Liberal talking point after the loss of 3 from 3 by-elections they contested is, they weren’t voting against us, they were voting for the S44 candidates. Yeah right, Trickle.
Sky News Australia
@SkyNewsAust
Georgina Downer: The feeling on the ground in Mayo was very much; this is a byelection caused by section 44, it wasn’t Ms Sharkie’s fault, we think she should see out her term and we don’t see the byelection as a question of leadership.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Just in – Thieves have made off with priceless Swedish crown jewels, in a daring heist reminiscent of a Hollywood movie.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/thieves-steal-sweden-crown-jewels-flee-in-motor-boat-chase-ensues-20180801-p4zurn.html
Big legal shenanigans in NSW over the Sydney light rail project.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/spanish-company-accused-of-using-light-rail-lawsuit-to-duck-damages-bill-20180730-p4zugx.html
Hunt backs down on MyHealth. Just goes to show when the people lode trust with a government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/health-minister-backs-down-on-my-health-record-20180731-p4zuqo.html
Ross Gittins explains how young people are bearing the brunt of a weak economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/young-people-bearing-the-brunt-of-a-weak-economy-20180731-p4zuku.html
And Greg Jericho says that while the Hilda survey mostly has good news on inequality, it remains a struggle for middle Australia to get ahead.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/incomes-dont-keep-up-as-the-financial-stress-for-families-is-getting-worse
David Crowe reports that groups representing 650 independent schools across three states have fired off a blistering letter to Turnbull demanding an urgent meeting to ensure he does not strike a “special deal” with Catholic schools to give them an unfair advantage. He’s really got his hands full here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/school-funding-war-erupts-in-challenge-to-turnbull-20180731-p4zuox.html
John McDuling tells us that two key Fairfax Media shareholders have voiced opposition to its planned merger with Nine Entertainment, with one key backer of both companies tipping Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp to enter the fray and disrupt the deal. I think I’d prefer Nine’s pap to Murdoch’s crap!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/shareholders-doubt-nine-fairfax-deal-with-gordon-murdoch-lurking-20180731-p4zuq6.html
Stephen Holt tells us why Matthias Cormann could be our next Prime Minister.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/why-matthias-cormann-could-be-our-next-prime-minister-20180731-p4zulq.html
If the Turnbull government doesn’t change its ways the coalition will be voted out at the next federal election, Barnaby Joyce believes. The former deputy prime minister says the coalition is heading over a cliff but thinks things can still turn around.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/01/coalition-nothing-changes-barnaby-joyce/
Australia’s bankers have attempted to address mounting community anger over repeated scandals by rewriting their code of conduct to include promises of simpler contracts with fewer conditions.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2018/07/31/bankers-code-conduct-scandals/
This AFR article gives a very good contrast on the ways Labor and Liberal are going about contesting marginal seats.
https://outline.com/FJscDj
Linda Morris exposes the dysfunctionality of the Powerhouse Museum board.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/museum-trust-knew-of-fashion-ball-losses-20180727-p4ztxm.html
The AFR says David Murray’s extraordinary blueprint for the governance of the board of AMP breaks many of the generally accepted rules that have guided directors overseeing public companies in Australia for the past 16 years.
https://outline.com/7wvSS3
The former head of the Australian Border Force has said all deaths within Australia’s offshore immigration regime should be investigated by an Australian judge or coroner. Does Roman have some scores to settle?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/31/former-border-force-chief-says-australia-should-investigate-all-deaths-in-offshore-detention
Stephen Koukoulas sums up Super Saturday with “It’s inequality, stupid!”
https://thekouk.com/item/623-it-s-inequality-stupid.html
Nicole Hemer gets a little precious over Sacha Baron Cohen’s shows.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/sacha-baron-cohen-has-outlived-his-usefulness-20180731-p4zukx.html
Facebook has just revealed that there is still nefarious activity occurring in its platform and it’s very similar to what happened in 2016.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/russia-may-have-just-spread-disinformation-on-facebook-wheres-trump-20180801-p4zurl.html
Nicole Hasham previews the COAG meeting on the NEG and how the ACT will be a key player.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-forget-the-big-picture-says-man-who-could-kill-energy-plan-20180731-p4zun6.html
And Engineers Australia says that while coal will rightly remain a part of Australia’s energy mix in this time of transition, we must be looking forward to establishing a modern, technically sophisticated power system and focus on continuing to ramp-up our renewable generation capacity.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/politics-are-polluting-the-neg-and-we-all-stand-to-lose-20180730-p4zuev.html
Jennifer Hewett reckons Frydenberg is hoping for a NEG ceasefire.
https://outline.com/7qsj2V
Meanwhile Barnaby Joyce has threatened to pull his support for the Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee if it places emissions targets on the agriculture sector.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/31/nutcase-stuff-barnaby-joyce-threatens-to-oppose-national-energy-guarantee
Rod Sims has promised “a very close look at the Nine-Fairfax takeover, foreshadowing “a long review” and “a very careful study” of its impacts, including on diversity of views.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/aug/01/fairfax-nine-takeover-watchdog-promises-long-review-focusing-on-media-diversity
Is this the end of the road for the euro?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/31/is-this-the-end-of-the-road-for-the-euro
The SMH editorial outlines why action is needed on housing stress. It says Sydney has a problem looking after those who contribute so much to the city’s fabulous demographic patchwork but can no longer afford to live here. It will take some ingenuity to solve.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-stress-requires-targeted-solutions-20180731-p4zunc.html
Women’s sport and regional and rural sporting clubs will be the big winners following a groundbreaking decision that allows Australian sport to access more than $4.4 billion of philanthropic assets retained by Public and Private Ancillary Funds.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/sport-focus/2018/07/31/australian-sports-foundation/
The distinction between university higher education and vocational courses would be abolished under a bold plan for a complete federal takeover of tertiary education – including state-run TAFEcolleges – proposed by advisory firm KPMG.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/01/federal-government-should-take-over-tafe-and-vocational-education-kpmg-says
David Crowe says Morrison has vowed to take the government’s company tax cuts to another vote in parliament within weeks in what could be a make-or-break decision that clears the ground for a policy rethink if the Senate blocks the changes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-stands-by-company-tax-cuts-in-new-push-for-senate-vote-20180731-p4zuq3.html
A very good contribution from Nicholas Stuart on the failures of Fairfax and its intrinsic value.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nine-deal-puts-a-dollar-figure-on-a-priceless-commodity-20180731-p4zumg.html
And The Conversation says, “If you value the media’s watchdog role in democracy, then the opening words in the deal enabling Channel Nine to acquire Fairfax Media, the biggest single shake-up of the Australian media in more than 30 years, ring alarm bells.”
https://theconversation.com/nine-fairfax-merger-rings-warning-bells-for-investigative-journalism-and-australian-democracy-100747
Adele Ferguson reports on a shocking case involving Bendigo Bank.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/when-will-it-end-scott-s-plea-to-bendigo-bank-20180731-p4zupr.html
Elizabeth Knight tells us about the unfolding data plan war between the telcos.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/my-plan-s-bigger-than-yours-telcos-in-data-fight-to-the-death-20180731-p4zupm.html
A media trend featuring attractive, female far-right warriors is appealing to predominantly male baby boomers according to Belinda Jones .
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/sexed-up-message-needed-to-win-ageing-males-swinging-to-one-nation,11741
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe does it again.
A ripper from Fiona Katauskas on that $443m sling to a GBR crowd.
Paul Zanetti takes us to the parapets.
Mark Knight’s Kill Bill effort.
Jon Kudelka with the problem the government is having with its business tax plan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cartoons/kudelka-cartoons/image-gallery/6c86336ba162daf8c34d42596589f6db
David Pope.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-1-2018-20180731-h13doy.html
It would have been nice if Essential had shown the 2PP if Albo was leader.
My estimate is that it would be something close to 55%-45% to the ALP.
Adrian,
They won’t get Husar…. but we will get Cash! Michaelia has nowhere to hide, her anti-Democratic behaviour will not be tolerated…. and the court will so hold…. 🙂
mb
‘I hate to be a spoilsport, but the results in Braddon and Longman could well be consistent with a national 49-51 2pp. ‘
Or they could show that Labor’s vote is being consistently under read by pollsters, and is actually in the nature of 53/54.
After all, we have had a number of by elections now where we were told it would go down to the wire – we were told with Batman, as we were with Longman, that the result wouldn’t be known for days – where it became quite quickly apparent Labor was going to win.
Of course Labor shouldn’t rest on its laurels and assume the game is in the bag. And, of course, black swan events come along and upset everyone’s predictions.
The only reason, however, that I was in any doubt about Batman, Longman or Braddon was because the media told me things were happening which clearly weren’t. The more the media does this, the less I’m going to listen to them. In the case of the ordinary punter, being told Bill is dead when he clearly isn’t might have the same effect.
And, of course, nothing succeeds like success.
So there’s another possibility – that the public start to regard Shorten as a winner and decide to back the winning team.
“Does anyone on PB listen to 2GB?”
Not since Mike Carlton left.
lizzie @ #15 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 7:57 am
Oh that’s easy.One is a Minister of the crown the other is a Member of HM Loyal Opposition with special needs.
The front page of.the DT is about Emma Husar going on taxpayer funded Bruno Mars concert in Brisbane, and not having any official duties. Although apparently it is being mentioned on twitter that she did have official duties.
Anyhoo why haven’t the DT
Got a front page spread on The actual PM giving 444 million to a foundation that supposedly didn’t even ask for?
Thanks BK. That jewel heist is indeed like something out of a movie!
“this is a byelection caused by section 44, it wasn’t Ms Sharkie’s fault”
Thanks for the quote C@tmomma. So, before the by-election Sharkie was “sloppy”, “unprofessional”…. perhaps even a “liar”…. Now, “it wasn’t Ms Sharkie’s fault”…. Ha, ha, ha….. what a bunch of ridiculous clowns…. and they wonder why the People have stopped listening to their mainstream media!
“It would have been nice if Essential had shown the 2PP if Albo was leader.”…. Oh dear…
Still running in circles?
The “Albo for leader of the ALP” stupidity can only be supported by Liberal party voters or Marxists looking forward to a collapse of the ALP in the hope of getting hold of a little bit of the dust.
The Liberals will keep talking about Albo…. because they are sinking and have no other option.
Frankly this conduct alone should sink this fraud of a PM. Meanwhile the attempted to smear Shorten via the ROC regarding a donation made of 100,000, 10 years ago which was approved by the union at the time.
Seriously twisted!
Kristina Keneally’s Tweets
Kristina Keneally
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7m
Yes it is. And the Senate inquiry will continue….
Hugh Riminton
@hughriminton
This is a staggering story:
“PM personally approved $443m fund for tiny Barrier Reef foundation” (link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) theguardian.com/australia
meher baba @ #8 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 7:31 am
Meher
I think that might have held water as an idea if it were not for the national character of these polls and the media attention.
I cannot comment on Braddon because I know little about the seat but Longman is like a cross section of Australia. It is not a close or homogeneous community although it has lots of small pockets of such but they are so wildly different that you do not get that local person sort of deal.
The significant feature was not Labor’s vote, although it held up well. Rather the total and embarrassing collapse of the LNP vote. Sure the candidate was a duffer but a vote below 30% is a very big problem.
On the other hand Labor should not be complacent.
Zoomster – another possibility is that a lot of voters are on autopilot right now. They want stability after RGRA. But when they are asked to wake from their slumber and vote they look at this govt and go “no thanks”. According to Labor insiders there was a constant drift towards Labor in Longman as the poll got closer. That should worry this govt.
meher baba @ #8 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 7:31 am
Nah. You’ve neglected to factor in that PHON preferences are being overallocated to the Coalition, and that pollsters haven’t themselves factored in all the young people who enrolled for the marriage equality survey-thingy.
53-54 2PP to Labor is more plausible than 51.
Tetsujin @ #17 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:03 am
ROFL 😆
It didn’t work before the by-elections and it’s not going to work after them either.
Can I call meher baba a Concern Troll? 😉
C@t
Any reaction to the MasterChef final? 🙂
Given the unrelenting blatant anti Labor/union tone of just about everything which makes it to air/print this result neither staggers, amazes nor surprises me.
The Holt article (Stephen Holt tells us why Matthias Cormann could be our next Prime Minister. https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/why-matthias-cormann-could-be-our-next-prime-minister-20180731-p4zulq.html ), making the analogy between Cormann and Gorton, is interesting. It is the only way I can see of the non-rabid members of the GRASPers saving the Nation Building Family furniture. I look forward to the appearance of the Cormannator in a cast off leather jacket.
What say other Bludgers?
lizzie @ #32 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:33 am
Don’t tell me the result! 😀
I nobly decided to go to Sydney and see Thomas Frank, American author and journalist for The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/30/donald-trump-worst-politician-ever-on-path-to-re-election-thomas-frank-says
in conversation with Kristina Kenneally and Wayne Swan. So I forwent the Masterchef Finale, knowing that I could watch it at 1pm today as well. So I still don’t know and don’t want to know until I’ve watched it later on. 🙂
rhwombat @ #34 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:41 am
You mean like this?
🙂
Based on the primary numbers on Essential 51/49 is a fair call. I doubt you could get to 53/47 with L-NP primary of 41%
C@tmomma@7:54am
This is the same dynasty girl, who said Brexit is good for UK because OZ can do Free trade deals with UK who dismissed Mayo opinion polls as fake( the only single seat polls which were accurate). My point is her judgement.
Be interesting if Alan Jones decides to get behind the ‘grant’ scandal.
How long can most of the MSM continue to ignore it?
C@t
OK. I dozed through part of it and woke towards the end, so I’ll be watching it at 1 pm too.
C@tmomma @ #31 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:29 am
Yes
Oh dear.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-31/mike-nahan-is-dual-us-citizen-embroiled-in-tax-dispute-with-irs/10057092
rhwombat @ #34 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:41 am
Gut reaction. He talks funny. I can’t see the Libs giving him the keys.
C@t,
it’s really good. Won’t spoil it for you but it’s a terrific watch. The final challenge dish is incredible.
Late Riser
He can’t fake sincerity well enough to be PM.
Bloomberg
Verified account @business
1m1 minute ago
BREAKING: The Trump administration will propose raising to 25% its planned 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, sources say https://bloom.bg/2Oyq6IN
adrian@8:50am
As long as MSM are in thrall of MT. Their ignored so many of his failures and they will still ignore it because of opinion polls.
Also, did you notice deathly silence of Rex and Pegasus on this grant scandal?
Zoidlord@8:59am
Good.
lizzie @ #40 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:50 am
I just like the spectacle they create. It’s good old harmless fun. 🙂
Why good?