Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. Davidwh

    Why?

    He has been a spokesman for the cops in NSW since his son has been a copper and used them and him for self-promotion.

    What sort of knob calls a press conference about his son’s arrest?

  5. Fess,
    Indeed, the cravenness of Republican Congressional leaders abject failure to uphold their oaths to defend the Constitutional rule of law deeply distresses people like Schmidt and former RNC Chair, Michael Steele.

  7. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    22h22 hours ago

    A refugee severely injured his leg and had been denied any treatment for nearly a week. Six days later an x-ray revealed a complete patella rupture. He has been belatedly rushed to medical attention https://trib.al/VKL8crI

  8. “Hmm. I don’t know the bloke, but from comments here it would seem he suffers from a very tight radius of empathy.”

    Ray Hadley is one of Sydney’s stable of Far Right Shock-jocks. Probably thinks that Genghis Khan was too full of the milk of human kindness.

  9. Prof. Higgins @ #2009 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    Fess,
    Indeed, the cravenness of Republican Congressional leaders abject failure to uphold their oaths to defend the Constitutional rule of law deeply distresses people like Schmidt and former RNC Chair, Michael Steele.

    And many others. Schmidt was asked how many other Steve Schmidts are out there. He replied that . there are many like him, reflected in Trump’s polling among Republicans.

    However his views about the future of the GOP nationally following that of the California Republicans (now a 3rd party force and way more scary-crazy), is not a good thing. The health of a democracy needs a functional and feasible alternate govt.


  10. Davidwh says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    Oh well that’s it then. The government is cactus at the next election. For a while there I thought they had a chance.
    I/i>
    I assume your reflecting on the reef thing. It’s hard not to conclude Turnbull had come to the same conclusion before pulling the stunt.

  13. There are vast numbers of people in this world who are deserving of sympathy, often through no fault of their own. I see no need to give any priority to sympathy for the Hadley family.

  14. I’ve been wondering who the second force in Californian politics is after the Democrats, if the Republicans are the third?

  15. Thank you heaps, ‘Fess, for Real Time and Overtime. The scariest observation for me was by Charles Blow, I think it was, who equated the Birther movement and their constant demand to see President Obama’s Birth Certificate with ‘Papers Please’ now.

  16. And remember who tried to force ‘Papers Please’ on Australia?

    Benito Dutton (thank you, Mike Carlton) and Michael Pezzulo.

  19. Player One @ #1953 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1914 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 4:43 pm

    So, as I said, train our own citizens and then it can be significantly reduced and we can increase our humanitarian intake.

    So if you now agree we should reduce the skilled migration program in order to stabilize our population growth, then what are we arguing about?

    Nothing of the sort.

    I’m arguing that we maintain our numbers and work towards replacing skilled migration with humanitarian.

  22. The Sydney Morning Herald
    ‏Verified account @smh
    2h2 hours ago

    Labor Senator and former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally dubbed the saga #reefgate
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/senator-calls-out-karl-stefanovic-s-conflict-of-interests-promoting-great-barrier-reef-foundation-20180804-p4zvjf.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  24. C@t:

    I’m totally loving the Trump Imbroglio. So many threads, so many rabbit holes. Way better than a thriller novel or movie!

  26. Davidwh @ #2010 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 8:21 pm

    Shellbell I have no respect for Hadley and his views. I just don’t kick someone when they are down.

    He is not down, he is using the power he has in the media in a way others in the same circumstances cannot. In fact if it is someone in opposition to him then what do you think he will do? Give them his platform to garner support?

    His son is probably the victim of our stupid approach to drugs of addiction in this country, but guess whom gets on radio and preaches the status quo or worse?

  28. It’s worth noting that in a tweet yesterday David Crowe of Fairfax cited several articles since May concerning the GBRF bankrolling by Turnbull as “proof” Fairfax had competently covered the story.

    However, none of the stories were by David Crowe, Fairfax’s Chief Political Correspondent (and ex-The Australian and The Financial Review).

    They were all written by either the Entertainment or the Environment departments of Fairfax. Today’s article was in the Entertainment section, presumably because it dealt with Karl Stefanovich.

    Political writers at Fairfax are avoiding this story like the plague, while giving “Breaking News” type coverage to the Husar matter.

    Also notable is that the Hadley story is being given very muted “just the facts m’am coverage” today: straight down the line lollipop articles.

    Hadley is of course a Fairfax broadcaster.

  31. The Electric Warrior@soloriffs1953
    8h8 hours ago
    After watching “Real time with Bill Maher” tonight, I’m convinced whomever leads the Democratic nomination in 2019 immediately hires @SteveSchmidtSES to run his/her campaign. No kidding.

    Hmm. I knew this would happen.

    Steve Schmidt is an anti-Trumper, but he is still a conservative who presumably still holds onto all the nasty stuff conservatives hold as values.

    I listen to and am interested in his commentary about Republicans (as I am with David Frum, Tom Nicholls, Ann Navarro, Rick Wilson etc), because that’s their people, they understand and speak to those people and one assumes holds their values dear to their hearts. If anyone is going to cut through to sane Republicans and take back their party it will be these people.

    But they have little to offer a Democrat campaign in policy terms because none of them espouse Democratic policy principles or values.

  33. Zoidlord @ #2021 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    ‏Verified account @smh
    2h2 hours ago

    Labor Senator and former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally dubbed the saga #reefgate
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/senator-calls-out-karl-stefanovic-s-conflict-of-interests-promoting-great-barrier-reef-foundation-20180804-p4zvjf.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

    Well, actually it was Mike Hilliard. But, ok, KK, you can have it. 🙂

  34. I agree with you, ‘fess, about the Never Trumpers. Some of them probably think of Trump as, once a Democrat, always a Democrat. So their motivation would be to take back THEIR party and hand it over to someone like, oh, Jeb Bush. 🙂

  35. I also think it is apposite to note that Ray Hadley’s son is suffering from Depression and has been self-medicating with the Cocaine because he said he was afraid to confide in his father about his mental illness. I imagine that is because he probably listens to his father’s radio show every day and hears his lack of empathy for others in a similar position.

  37. C@tmomma @ #2034 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    I also think it is apposite to note that Ray Hadley’s son is suffering from Depression and has been self-medicating with the Cocaine because he said he was afraid to confide in his father about his mental illness. I imagine that is because he probably listens to his father’s radio show every day and hears his lack of empathy for others in a similar position.

    Poor bloke. Self medicating with illegal drugs is not uncommon amongst people with depressive-style illness. Anything to get out of bed in the morning, I suppose.

  40. I have the greatest sympathy for Hadleys son. After all he started off in life with the great disadvantage of having Hadley for a father.

    Ray Hadley Himself can go whistle. Actions have consequences and when someone has chosen to go down a particular road, there is very little anyone can do to rescue them. Sympathy becomes rather pointless.

  41. Hadley is a grub of a human.

    I detest the thing.

    For those that can find it, check out the story of the staff member that reported bullying by Hadley. Hadley had apparently threatened the staffer with violence but went into overdrive retreat when it was brought to his (Hadleys) attention that the staffer was a highly ranked martial arts expert.

  43. I still can’t get my head around Turnbull actually giving the GBRF the whole 6 years of funding in advance in one lump sum
    Imagine if a Labor PM had even given a fraction of that money in similar circumstances to any organisation, the pitchforks would be out.
    You only have to look at the outrage by Turnbull during the Godwin gretch scandal demanding Rudd and Swan resign for a perceived conflict.
    This just boggles the mind

  45. Vic,
    Imagine if that amount of money was given to The Australian Conservation Foundation by a federal Labor government, ‘to fix the Reef’!?!

  46. C@t

    There would be a frenzy.

    Turnbull should resign in disgrace and the money should be returned until proper processes have been put in place. Nothing less should be expected in this Imbroglio

  47. Shellbell and others, I have seen people I cared for deeply destroy their lives through drug use. No one, not even Hadley, should go through that. However I do understand where you are coming from.

  48. Why? The prick won’t cut anybody else some slack when it comes to their family.

    Yep. He won’t in future either after he finds a way clear of all of this.

    But tories stick together.

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