Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. A common trick that partisan hacks use to disguise their bias and protect their side is to apportion, to everyone, blame that for the most part belongs to their side. Because, hey, if they’ve given everyone a good kick, they can’t possibly be biased.

  6. poroti, I am still amazed by that incident with Turnbull and the lady. One thinks of the Abbott incident as well Keating and the construction workers. Spontaneous moments like that are rare.

    In the 2016 election when Turnbull strode down the main street of Stirling I was reliably informed his team had planted people along the way. Cafe owners confirmed that ‘customers’ arrived a few minuted before Turnbull came past, they chatted to him for the cameras, and then they left having never ordered anything.

  7. There is only one side of politics that has consistently and persistently blocked, or even sabotaged, Australia’s efforts at tackling AGW, and has frequent flirtations with rejecting science. Even the NEG is looking more and more like an attempt to lock in inaction for decades.

    By blaming everyone, Murphy is protecting her side by diminishing their responsibility, and is providing support to the idea that it doesn’t matter which party you vote for if you want action on AGW.

    Well it does matter. A Labor majority government would see an end to the political paralysis and significant action taken. A Liberal majority government would at best continue with another in their line of fig leaves, more dithering, and inadequate policy. There is not one ounce of symmetry to be found.

    Absolutely disgusting journalism. I had been giving Murphy some benefit of the doubt for attempting to reassess her role as a journalist, but it seems I was being far too generous.

  8. It was the two major party leaders in Abbott and Rudd who sabotaged efforts at tackling energy/pollution in this country so Murphy is correct in sharing the blame.

  9. Funny how Murphy was prepared to be critical of Gillard in 2012, with specifics, the like of which that she would never use for Trumble:

    Good stuff, powerful beyond the sum of its parts because of the symbolism. If you are disposed to be negative, here is Gillard captured potently where she often is, encircled by hostile forces ready to storm the shaky citadel. That flat-footed politician who always stumbles when the going gets tough. A prone puppet now firmly in the grip of others. When politics turns against a protagonist, the universe seems to want to amplify that fact. I don’t know why, it’s just so. Call it sympathetic background if you will.

    And on Abbott:

    Abbott has to decide whether to maintain his boot firmly on Gillard’s neck, or mix up his presentation, risking occasionally being the story. Using Parliament to indulge his characteristic uber-partisanship through party tricks such as no-confidence motions, censures and the like feels inevitable. The brute partisanship of the US presidential race is so deafening, it is floating across the Pacific. Conservative politics has begun a phase of railing against the establishment – never mind the inconvenience that conservative politics used to serve establishment values. Best not to sweat small imponderables. Conserve energy. It will be a long year.

    Whether Abbott can remain predominantly in pure politics mode is a function of whether Labor chooses to spend the year talking about itself, indulging the cycle of retribution, throwing another leader on the pyre in terror about the catastrophic primary vote – or whether it can rise above its own hard-wired propensity for plots and schemes.

    Yes, it’s all fun and games Katharine – ‘party tricks’. Well we all know how that turned out.

  11. I had been giving Murphy some benefit of the doubt…

    I had been giving her more than that. But no more. Woeful article. Utterly devoid of reality and coming from someone across the detail, that makes her article filled with bias.

    Who is at fault of inaction on emissions control? Maybe Murphy needs a mirror.

  16. Yep, Rex Douglas, put Kevin Rudd in the same basket as Tony Abbott, marked ‘sabotage of all attempts at energy/pollution policy’.

    I really should just ignore this twerp.

  17. The only party that has sabotaged carbon pollution mitigation is the party that legislated to remove the highly effective carbon pricing scheme the country had. That party being the Liberal / National party.

  18. The bias of Labor partisans here is precluding them from acknowledging that operatives from Liberal and Labor have sabotaged energy/pollution policy.
    To then rage at Katharine Murphy for stating what’s obvious to all non-partisans shows a high level of ignorance.

  20. More sweeping generalisations from the twerp.

    Plus I see that ‘Labor partisans’ is now the insult du jour. Oh, Rex, it burns! 😉

  21. SK – Murphy’s big agenda is making sure that the next time she phones one of her liberal mates, someone answers the phone. I said that and was quickly moderated. She now has about a 1000 comments and almost every one is critical. That is quite a pounding from your readership.

  22. The objective reality, obvious to all who are living in the real world is that the coalition government legislated to abolish the carbon pricing scheme we had in this country. That led to the coalition government using energy as some kind of front for pretending they are doing something about GHGEs, when the reality (again, obvious to all who are living in the real world) is that they can’t talk about GHGEs and climate change because the party is so divided on the issue.

  23. Rex
    BS. I have no interest in the Labor party other than I hope it defeats this mob of incompetent crooks.

    Do you know the difference between our emissions now and what they would have been under the CPRS or the Clean Energy Future policies?

    There was consensus in 2009. Nearly 3/4 of parliament supported a policy of emission abatement. Who stuffed that up?

    How is collapse of policy in 2009, 2013 and 2013-2018 the fault of the ALP? FFS. It is outrageous to be including the ALP in any way in the same breath as the Coalition for why we do not have meaningful (any!) policy on climate change. Outrageous and utterly disgraceful reporting. Shame on Murphy.

  25. There will not be a federal election till May 2019 and it will be our great LNP who will go on to win it by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be PM till he decides to retire from politics and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers

  26. Barney in Go Dau @ #1847 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Who said anything about the type of immigration programme?

    Skilled migration makes up the vast bulk of our migration program – about 70%. And the vast bulk of skilled migrants come from the poorest countries in the world (again, about 70%).

    You may want to reflect on why that should be.

  27. Wayne @ #1875 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    There will not be a federal election till May 2019 and it will be our great LNP who will go on to win it by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be PM till he decides to retire from politics and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers

    Lacking sufficient enthusiasm will get you ‘boarded, Whyne. Lift your game.

  28. I’ve just been reading some of the KM comments and most of them are critical of Libs. and lack of action on CC. The negative ones must have been earlier in the day, perhaps.

  29. Rex @3:36PM “It was the two major party leaders in Abbott and Rudd who sabotaged efforts at tackling energy/pollution in this country so Murphy is correct in sharing the blame.”

    No, this was not a case of two leaders trying to arrive at the best way to tackle climate change. That is the situation we had while Turnbull was leader of the Opposition prior to December 2009. After Abbott’s elevation to the leadership, we had one leader determined to tackle climate change and one leader determined to block any efforts to do so.

    To say that Abbott and Rudd are equally to blame is a completely assinine statement. What on Earth do you think Rudd should have done? Supported Direct Inaction?

  30. Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    Have a look who sponsored @karlstefanovic ‘s trip to the Great Barrier Reef so he could interview their Chairman’s Panel member Deloitte live on air. Yep. You guessed it. The @GBRFoundation

  31. Simon² Katich® @ #1609 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 3:52 pm

    Rex
    BS. I have no interest in the Labor party other than I hope it defeats this mob of incompetent crooks.

    Do you know the difference between our emissions now and what they would have been under the CPRS or the Clean Energy Future policies?

    There was consensus in 2009. Nearly 3/4 of parliament were being one policy. Who stuffed that up?

    How is collapse of policy in 2009, 2013 and 2013-2018 the fault of the ALP? FFS. It is outrageous to be including the ALP in any way in the same breath as the Coalition for why we do not have meaningful (any!) policy on climate change. Outrageous and utterly disgraceful reporting. Shame on Murphy.

    Who tore down the minority Govt responsible for legislating the only genuine CEP on offer and paved the way for the worst and most destructive PM the country has ever seen to wreak havoc and denial ?

  32. Player One @ #1879 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 12:57 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1847 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Who said anything about the type of immigration programme?

    Skilled migration makes up the vast bulk of our migration program – about 70%. And the vast bulk of skilled migrants come from the poorest countries in the world (again, about 70%).

    You may want to reflect on why that should be.

    Because we don’t train enough of our citizens.

  33. Wayne

    Please stay, please keep making those predictions. You are our lucky charm. Your exhortations worked a treat on Super Saturday.

  34. ”
    WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 1:29 pm
    “A truly appalling piece of hackery from KM in the Guardian today, blaming the “political class”rather than liberal thuggery for 10 years of failed climate policy. God, she is hopeless.”

    The media are complicit in the last 10 years, they have balanced climate science with right wing conspiracy theories deliberately developed and deployed to fool people and really no where has this been more successful than here in Australia. We are a laughing stock.

    The media realise how far out of whack we are with reality, and they can’t blame themselves and if they blame the liberals it is effectively blaming themselves, so instead they talk of a toxic debate, and failed policy. I used to think rather highly of Phil Corey but his take on the political farce that is the NEG, in fact I think Murphy bought into the govt snow job as well, has been very very poorly.

    He didn’t thank me when I sent him a link to renew economy.
    ”
    I know the moment she did not report on Joyce adultery although she heard about it in parliament & talked to him but has nothing to say that she is no progressive.
    She confirmed it when she went after Shorten on the flimsy evidence of Albo speech
    she reconfirmed when she has nothing to say GBR foundation give away by MT.

    Also, In a article today in SMH, Hartcher discussed Emma Husar but does not have anything to say on GBR foundation scandal.

  35. Murphy manages to write a long article about climate and energy failure and didnt mention Finkel once. Finkel gave the government a report that took into account the Coalitions recalcitrance, (it shouldnt have, but it did). It was delivered on a platter to them. The ALP even rumbled it would support it. And what did the Coalition do? It figgin NEG’d it.

    This mob have been watering down climate change policy like it was homeopathy. And now we are all supposed to get in behind them.

    Stuff that.

  36. Rex “Denying history gets you nowhere.”

    So Rex, what history would that be? When Tony Abbott attempted to develop a serious policy on Greenhouse emissions? When Opposition Leader Tony Abbott offered bipartisanship with the Then Labor Government to develop a viable emissions policy, as Turnbull had Don as Opposition Leader?

    Please explain.

  37. Wayne @ #1878 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    There will not be a federal election till May 2019 and it will be our great LNP who will go on to win it by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be PM till he decides to retire from politics and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers

    AHHh, so that’s the problem with people smugglers, they’re trying to infiltrate corporate Australia. 🙂

  38. You all know deep down in your hearts that our great LNP will win the next election by a landslide and our great PM will lead our great nation where if shorten was to get in God help us we will have people drowning at sea and back in to debt

  40. Ven @ #1620 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    ”
    WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 1:29 pm
    “A truly appalling piece of hackery from KM in the Guardian today, blaming the “political class”rather than liberal thuggery for 10 years of failed climate policy. God, she is hopeless.”

    The media are complicit in the last 10 years, they have balanced climate science with right wing conspiracy theories deliberately developed and deployed to fool people and really no where has this been more successful than here in Australia. We are a laughing stock.

    The media realise how far out of whack we are with reality, and they can’t blame themselves and if they blame the liberals it is effectively blaming themselves, so instead they talk of a toxic debate, and failed policy. I used to think rather highly of Phil Corey but his take on the political farce that is the NEG, in fact I think Murphy bought into the govt snow job as well, has been very very poorly.

    He didn’t thank me when I sent him a link to renew economy.
    ”
    I know the moment she did not report on Joyce adultery although she heard about it in parliament & talked to him but has nothing to say that she is no progressive.
    She confirmed it when she went after Shorten on the flimsy evidence of Albo speech
    she reconfirmed when she has nothing to say GBR foundation give away by MT.

    Also, In a article today in SMH, Hartcher discussed Emma Husar but does not have anything to say on GBR foundation scandal.

    IT was Guardian Australia led by Lenore and Katharine who were almost a lone voice in support of the CEP until it was ‘terminated’.

  43. ”
    Wayne says:
    Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 3:55 pm
    There will not be a federal election till May 2019 and it will be our great LNP who will go on to win it by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be PM till he decides to retire from politics and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers
    ”
    I never comment Wayne n Wayne’s postings because they are like a broken record repeating the same thing. I have no idea what “LNP who will keep our boards closed from the people smugglers”mean.
    What ‘boards’ & why are LNP keeping them closed from people smugglers & what will happen if the boards are opened? 🙂

  45. Steve777 @ #1622 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    Rex “Denying history gets you nowhere.”

    So Rex, what history would that be? When Tony Abbott attempted to develop a serious policy on Greenhouse emissions? When Opposition Leader Tony Abbott offered bipartisanship with the Then Labor Government to develop a viable emissions policy, as Turnbull had Don as Opposition Leader?

    Please explain.

    Abbott wouldn’t have stood a chance against a unified and factually-based Labor/Green minority Govt that was delivering for societies betterment.

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