Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. And paid up RupertRooter Gary Hardgrave replies…

    “The timing suggests it’s just a distraction. They are just picking a fight with the states – they control GST basket. Govt is all over the shop on everything now – My Health, what Simon says on Schools, MT’s GBR boondoggle grant, NEG, Paris, no water supply policy, etc etc…”

  5. Ante Meridian @ #1796 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    I can remember a few times when posters have claimed there’s no point in voting Greens because they won’t form government. Maybe not in those exact words, but pretty darn close.

    I can certainly understand someone here saying there is no point in voting Green and expecting them to form government – either in their own right, or in a coalition government with the ALP. Neither one of these is likely to happen.

    But anyway, this is a bit of a side issue. Neither the LNP, the ALP nor the Greens have a coherent population policy, so it is fair to look at the alternatives.

    Depriving a party of election funding (which is based on them getting first preference votes) until they develop a suitable policy in a certain area is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. There is no excuse for any party not having an explicit population policy.

  7. Regardless of any personal opinions about Ray Hadley and his views and the way he operates as a media tart, he is a father who is confronting a parental nightmare not of his making. He has my sympathies and I hope that he and his family have the strength and fortitude to get through what will obviously be a difficult time.

  10. Bushfire Bill, I have to say you have put up some wonderful posts of late. Good work.

    Ray Hadley is one of the worlds great bigheads and deserves everything bad that comes his way, but I feel great sadness that his son has seemingly had his life ruined by an association with drugs. What a waste, and an injustice. It is not his fault that his idiot father is one of the loudest mouths for continued criminalization of drug use against all evidence.

  11. Victoria, phoenixRed:

    If you haven’t already watched it I highly recommend Real Time. Steve Schmidt has predicted a Blue Tsunami for the Dems in the midterms on the back of college-educated white women who can no longer vote Republican because they are now the party of Trump.

  13. Rick Wilson’s latest on the crazy QAnon shit infesting the Republicans.

    Conspiracies are hard. They’re even harder when you’re stupid.

    They are, however, deeply compelling. Some people need a single, grand unifying theory of why the world refuses to line up with their expectations. When difficult realities confront people without the intellectual horsepower to understand and accept the truth, some turn to conspiracy theories to paper over the holes in their worldview. No matter how absurd, baroque, and improbable, conspiracies grow on their own like mental kudzu where inconsistencies aren’t signs of illogical conclusions, but of another, deeper layer of some hidden truth, some skein of powerful forces holding the world in its grip.

    After Trump’s rally in Tampa this week, the notorious QAnon scam became America’s conspiracy of the moment. And why not? In the face of Donald Trump’s daily meltdowns, mood swings, and unmedicated rage episodes in which he lashes out at every target in reach, his base is desperately looking for a version of reality that gives them some comfort and stability.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fans-are-suckers-and-qanon-is-perfect-for-them?source=twitter&via=mobile

  15. GG,

    One might hope Hadley through these trials might develop a sense of empathy for others who are going through difficulties. A sense of compassion for those who fail to live up to the standards he sets for them. And an awareness that simplistic sloganeering is no great help in a complex world.

    But I won’t be holding my breath.

    And I won’t be seeking to deny the enjoyment of a bit of schadenfreude to those who have been targets of the man in the past.

  17. A truly appalling piece of hackery from KM in the Guardian today, blaming the “political class”rather than liberal thuggery for 10 years of failed climate policy. God, she is hopeless.

  19. GG – yes, and hopefully seeing things from the “other” side can make a change in RH. I know that in the USA a lot more people have come to appreciate the difficulties of drug dependency because it has come to their own backyard in places like rural areas in the Appalachian states courtesy of the prescription opioid driven tragedy.

  20. “A truly appalling piece of hackery from KM in the Guardian today, blaming the “political class”rather than liberal thuggery for 10 years of failed climate policy. God, she is hopeless.”

    The media are complicit in the last 10 years, they have balanced climate science with right wing conspiracy theories deliberately developed and deployed to fool people and really no where has this been more successful than here in Australia. We are a laughing stock.

    The media realise how far out of whack we are with reality, and they can’t blame themselves and if they blame the liberals it is effectively blaming themselves, so instead they talk of a toxic debate, and failed policy. I used to think rather highly of Phil Corey but his take on the political farce that is the NEG, in fact I think Murphy bought into the govt snow job as well, has been very very poorly.

    He didn’t thank me when I sent him a link to renew economy.

  21. ratsak @ #1815 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 1:17 pm

    GG,

    One might hope Hadley through these trials might develop a sense of empathy for others who are going through difficulties. A sense of compassion for those who fail to live up to the standards he sets for them. And an awareness that simplistic sloganeering is no great help in a complex world.

    But I won’t be holding my breath.

    And I won’t be seeking to deny the enjoyment of a bit of schadenfreude to those who have been targets of the man in the past.

    You are entitled to your views.

    But, I don’t hate anyone enough to take any smug satisfaction out of this situation.

  22. Zoidlord @ #1781 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    @Confessions

    Karl Stefanovic
    ‏Verified account @karlstefanovic
    3h3 hours ago

    The @GBRFoundation deserves and will use every cent in its arsenal to save the reef. I’ve no doubt their research into reef dna and conservation is the key. Let’s give them supporting space to prove it.

    Says the guy who is fast losing his pretty boy good looks and will thus do or say anything, on behalf of his Liberal Party masters, to hang onto his job .

  23. Kiera
    ‏ @KieraGorden
    14m14 minutes ago

    “Labor didn’t propose to scrap this tax…they’ve done nothing. We’re the ones who have listed it on the agenda.” – Kelly O’Liar lying

    The L/NP just weeks ago BLOCKED the progress of a Private Members Bill that would’ve scrapped the #TamponTax. #AusPol

  24. GG – music is a tough gig (seen from family members involved) – congrats to your daughter. I am having massive problems trying to get that to play, or download, on multiple platforms I have tried.

  26. God, she is hopeless.

    Couldn’t even be bothered pointing out yet again the slimy trick of tarring everyone else with the Coalition’s brush.

    And as for business wanting certainty? They had certainty. In 2009. Again in 2013. Both times they threw their lot in with the vandals (as did the media). Fuck them.

    The only certainty they deserve is the certainty that they ain’t getting their tax cuts, the certainty that their political pets are going down, and the certainty that due to them fucking us all over a reckoning is coming for them. If they really want certainty then they can simply tell the Libs to give Labor and the States anything they want in return for the NEG including waaaaaaaay more credible emission targets and penalties or business won’t be donating to the Libs for the next election. That will get them certainty.

  29. GG:

    I can’t get the thing to play either, but congrats to your daughter! IIRC you also had a daughter who was a councillor?

  30. Rocket Rocket @ #1824 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    GG – music is a tough gig (seen from family members involved) – congrats to your daughter. I am having massive problems trying to get that to play, or download, on multiple platforms I have tried.

    Not sure why that is happening. I’ve suddenly got the same issue.

  32. Ratsak – after a year of not reading Murphy, I was refreshed and ready to climb back into the moronic inferno. Now I need another breather.

  33. But, I don’t hate anyone enough to take any smug satisfaction out of this situation.

    That’s nice for you. I’ll let you enjoy your smug satisfaction in not taking smug satisfaction out of the situation. 😉

    Being from Mexico you’d be pretty insulated from what a lowlife Hadley is. The smug satisfaction level rise in the air around Sydney will register with the Bureau of Meteorology.

  34. Regardless of any personal opinions about Ray Hadley and his views and the way he operates as a media tart, he is a father who is confronting a parental nightmare not of his making. He has my sympathies and I hope that he and his family have the strength and fortitude to get through what will obviously be a difficult time.

    I stop at offering Hadley sympathy. He has shown very little for others.

    He has also shown little sympathy for the judicial system, using words like “bozo”, “boofhead”, “lunatic”, “clown” and “lowlife” to describe magistrates and judges dealing with criminal matters, and especially bail applications that Hadley does not agree with.

    Hadley’s basic position is not that bail should be refused because of the risk that the accused may commit further crimes or seek to influence witnesses.

    Rather, Ray takes the line that the seriousness of the allegation in itself and the accused person’s obvious guilt should disqualify an accused person from bail. That is, refusal of bail should the beginning of the punishment of someone who is clearly guilty of a serious offence.

    One would have thought that a police officer merely being accused after apparently being caught red-handed doing a drug deal would qualify as a “serious offence”, both on the criminal as well well as the social register.

    However, we don’t know the facts of the matter, and as the risk of flight would be minimal due to the accused’s attachment to the major celebrity status and influence of his old man, and as everyone is entitled to their day in court to put their case (maybe Hadley Junior was working undercover?) bail should be granted.

    But it will be interesting to see whether Hadley labels the magistrate a “bozo”, “boofhead”, “lunatic”, “clown” or “lowlife” if bail is refused this time, and indeed whether Hadley issues his usual braying clarion call to “lock the bastard up”, as well as make calls for the resignation of the Police Minister and/or Commissioner for being unable to control drugs on the street.

    On the horizon, though, there is hope. One would be justified in expecting a muted Hadley response to any other matters of public wowserism, such as the alleged antics of Emma Husar.

    Whatever the case, there will be a lot of politicians and other Hadley victims breathing a VERY big sigh of relief and experiencing waves of unexpected schadenfreude today.

  35. ratsak @ #1833 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    But, I don’t hate anyone enough to take any smug satisfaction out of this situation.

    That’s nice for you. I’ll let you enjoy your smug satisfaction in not taking smug satisfaction out of the situation. 😉

    Being from Mexico you’d be pretty insulated from what a lowlife Hadley is. The smug satisfaction level rise in the air around Sydney will register with the Bureau of Meteorology.

    I’m too busy basking in the reflected glory of my kids to ever be smugly satisfied!

  37. Thank you, Bushfire Bill, for your @10.11am. I have just caught up with it. It is refreshing to have a man stick up for a victimised woman. I know you have always had it in you to do it but sometimes the absolute salaciousness of smears cooked up against a woman have a tendency to be generally believed because, well, she’s attractive and doesn’t have a partner, so…

    I am especially grateful for your intervention on her behalf, as I believe I can empathise with her situation as a former sufferer of DV myself and the psychological torture that can be inflicted upon a woman without leaving a mark, except upon her psyche, and so it only takes a reappearance of similar tactics by another male to bring all the mental trauma flooding back in a visceral way that can really mess with your head. I’m sure the people perpetrating the smear campaign realise this as well, as they seem to me like a right bunch of munts.

    Not to mention the fleas on a blog who are advocating she be ‘managed out’ of her position in federal parliament.

    I understand that I may be accused of doing that which I have accused others of, except that I am assuming her innocence, at least of the most sensorious claims, but my gut feeling is that the whole thing has been ginned up. Yes, that’s the only proof I have, and the snippet of conversation that Douglas and Milko alluded to last night.

    Also, I can smell the sulphurous fumes of Mark Latham in the background as well. He would have had a history in the Labor Party in the Western Suburbs that involved the powerful Anderson family. I am also reassured that Bill Shorten hasn’t seen fit to do anything about it yet. He’s a good people reader and I believe he would now have been briefed on the general nature of the case by Kaila Murnain so as to be able to get the gist of it. And I don’t think his relative silence is due to his friendship with Emma Husar prevailing over good sense, he’s cut people off who have done the wrong thing before today.

    Anyway, I have been rambling because, basically I am really distressed about what effects this whole shit show may be having on Emma Husar. So, again, thank you for fighting her corner here. 🙂

  38. Ben Eltham
    ‏Verified account @beneltham
    31m31 minutes ago

    Here is a photo of Campbell Newman holding Anna Marsden’s baby daughter Alice in 2013. At the time, Ben Myers was Newman’s top advisor.

    Ben Eltham
    ‏Verified account @beneltham
    30m30 minutes ago

    I should stress that none of what I have tweeted is intended to imply that Ms Marsden has done anything improper. However there is no doubt about her close ties to the LNP in Queensland
    2 replies 6 retweets 11 likes

  40. Murphy, murphsplaining:

    Do Australia’s political parties want war or peace on climate change and energy? Will it be detente, or is there political profit in confecting a state of permanent war, where virtue signalling triumphs, and practical progress is nailed to a national monument called failure?

    Translation:

    “We had a Carbon Tax 8 years ago. It worked. Emissions fell and prices were held at low levels compared to the increases under the present government. As a journalist I mocked Labor on what I call ‘The Theatrics’ of politics, but never really wrote anything substantial about the actual policy. Why should I? I was too busy giggling along with my CPG pals on shows like Insiders, and murphsplaining to my readers why Tony Abbott would make a great Prime Minister compared to Julia Gillard who shocked us by wearing red reading glasses and having a big bum. Then the Carbon Tax got repealed, but nothing serious was put in its place. Who was I to criticise? It was exciting! Tony Abbott being the wrecker that only Tony Abbott can be!

    But now Malcolm Turnbull wants to do something, sort-of. I’m not sure what it is, but it’s definitely time for all this grubby politics to stop and for everyone to just agree with him.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/04/dear-cynics-and-fools-australias-had-jack-of-your-taxpayer-funded-failure-on-energy

  41. If it was your child who had been arrested for cocaine Ray Hadley would read out the full name as per the release provided to him by police media

  43. The media realise how far out of whack we are with reality, and they can’t blame themselves and if they blame the liberals it is effectively blaming themselves, so instead they talk of a toxic debate, and failed policy.

    This is exactly where Murphy is. Has enough of a brain to notice reality, but just can’t bring herself to fess up to her and the wider media’s part in the mess and point out the simple truth that this mob of fools should never have been let anywhere near government. And wouldn’t have been if the media had done it’s proper job.

    It’s all someone else’s fault.

  44. The Daily Telegraph and its readers tackling the big issues. Current top 2 viewed stories ……

    1. Emma and Lachy split: What’s next for the Wiggles
    2. Inside the breakdown of the fairytale Wiggles marriage
    ‘

  46. Here’s a rant I posted in the comments on Ms Murphy’s article:

    You are right in pointing out that energy and climate policy in this country is a mess. In fact, it makes a dog’s breakfast look like a paradigm of excellence in organisation. And who’s fault is that? Five years ago, we had a plan in place. It wasn’t perfect, but it sure beats what we have now, which can be best described as “chaotic inaction”. Power prices were much lower that they are now and emissions were coming down. Then came the Abbott Government.

    The main reason that we have no viable energy and climate policy now is that powerful vested interests do not want one. The fossil fuel industry, especially coal miners, want to keep the game going for as long as possible, like the tobacco industry before them. Others business interests, while having no particular brief for coal, do not want to incur additional costs or regulation that might result from effective climate action. And the Coalition parties are determined to support these vested interests in their position.

    With the wisdom of hindsight, it is possible to see where Labor, the Greens and others concerned about climate change might have done better. But make no mistake, it’s not the “political class” to blame. It is the the Liberal and National parties and those vested interested that own them. The only division in the Liberal Party is between those determined to take no action on climate change and those who think we need to make some token effort.

  47. Player One @ #1729 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:36 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1723 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:28 am

    No, we have the capacity to help over populated areas and those affected by the impacts of climate change by relieving the pressure and taking more.

    Leaving aside for a minute that we of course do not have such a capacity, your solution is to take the richest and most talented people from the poorest countries?

    That’s really going to help them control their own population, isn’t it?

    Who said anything about the type of immigration programme?

  49. I thought wiggles were cartoon characters, so if I cared I would be surprised that they are having relationship difficulties.

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