Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 50
1 34 35 36 50
  1. It seems gossip about Emma Husar is of greater national importance to @TurnbullMalcolm than his gift of $440 mill in taxpayers funds to his Reef and mining mates in Qld. His claim today that he and Lucy are also drought stricken farmers was just pathetic ,sad and sick #auspol

    Is Malcolm referring to this farm?

  2. Onebobsworth @ #1691 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 9:09 am

    Thanks @lizzie for your reference to Mike Carltons contribution in todays The Saturday Paper. For those unfamiliar with The Saturday Paper, if you don’t have a subscription you can read one free article per week. If it is the only article you read today, Carltons article is the one you must read.
    It is a devastatingly accurate summation of the chaos, falsity,deception and systematic erosion of democracy in our country under Turnbull and his henchmen like Dutton and Frydenburg. Carltons reference to Dutton as “Benito” is particularly chilling.
    It is a grim and prescient warning to us all.

    I would urge readers of The Saturday Paper to subscribe for its small annual fee.

    The more competition Newscorp has the better.

  3. Barney in Go Dau @ #1706 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    Player One @ #1699 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:35 am

    BK @ #1673 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:54 am

    Is decentralisation a solution to population growth?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/decentralisation-is-a-solution-to-population-growth-20180801-p4zux5.html

    No. Stopping population growth is the solution to population growth.

    And as usual you present an unrealistic solution.

    Oh really?

    The good news is that a fair and equitable population policy can be achieved in Australia. If the natural birth rate and our humanitarian intake remained at current levels, Australia would have a long-term stable population. We can have a total migration intake per year of up to 70,000 and still achieve a stable population. Population policy is not about forcing Australians to have one child, or turning back the boats. The main driver of population growth is economic migration, which is mostly built around increasing short-term GDP (at the expense of future generations). A population policy that decouples growth from the ambitions of big business makes sense on very many levels.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/environment-the-biggest-loser-as-australias-population-hits-25-million,11748

  4. The memo says the move would help stores get customers through their checkouts faster while they experienced busier than normal trading thanks to its Little Shop toy promotion.

    The promotion, in which customers receive small plastic-wrapped plastic replicas of everyday supermarket products for every $30 they spend, has been wildly popular and has even prompted a secondary resale market for the toys online.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/plastic-toys-vs-plastic-bags-coles-little-shop-drove-bag-backflip-20180803-p4zvdw.html

    I remain gobsmacked that the little toy thing has been as popular as it has been. But almost every day I see posts on facebook from people wanting to swap out little toys. Aside from all the unnecessary plastic flowing into the environment, what on earth do people do with those things?

  5. @P1
    If there is less people or no people then no investment.

    Governments only move to increase spending when this happens.

    “if you build it they will come”.

  6. Player One @ #1711 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:57 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1706 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    Player One @ #1699 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 6:35 am

    BK @ #1673 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:54 am

    Is decentralisation a solution to population growth?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/decentralisation-is-a-solution-to-population-growth-20180801-p4zux5.html

    No. Stopping population growth is the solution to population growth.

    And as usual you present an unrealistic solution.

    Oh really?

    The good news is that a fair and equitable population policy can be achieved in Australia. If the natural birth rate and our humanitarian intake remained at current levels, Australia would have a long-term stable population. We can have a total migration intake per year of up to 70,000 and still achieve a stable population. Population policy is not about forcing Australians to have one child, or turning back the boats. The main driver of population growth is economic migration, which is mostly built around increasing short-term GDP (at the expense of future generations). A population policy that decouples growth from the ambitions of big business makes sense on very many levels.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/environment-the-biggest-loser-as-australias-population-hits-25-million,11748

    Yes, really!

    You consider Australia in isolation to the global situation which is where the problem really exists.

    Also one of Australia’s failing with population growth is to keep cramming people into the major centres and not establish new ones.

  7. How many of these ‘valuable’ items will end up in the ocean?

    “As you know, teams have been working hard to bring Little Shop to life for our customers and we’ve had a great response across the country,” the memo says.

    “To help make life easier for our team and customers during this busy time, we have made the decision to extend the complimentary 15¢ Better Bag offer until further notice.

    “This means you can focus 100 per cent on serving customers quickly through the registers. It also gives our customers additional time to form the habit of remembering to bring their own reusable bags.”

    Coles will start charging for its reusable bags two days after the Little Shop promotion ends.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/plastic-toys-vs-plastic-bags-coles-little-shop-drove-bag-backflip-20180803-p4zvdw.html

  8. Gratified to see that my initial post outlining the breach of Natural Justice issues in the Husar case hit all the key points (plus a few more), if the IA summary today is any guide. This, and many other posts here by many other fair-minded people have been salutary.

    I still think the investigation has lost any legs it may have had and should be completely abandoned. It is utterly compromised. The complainants just cannot be allowed to breach confidentiality, wreck (or go close to wrecking) the career of the respondent, and still benefit from any adverse outcome that may come from assessment of their allegations.

    A re-start is out of the question because not only is Whelan’s investigation in ruins, but so is the complainant’s moral equity in the matter.

    What many (some of them on this board) who claim it can all be reset and the investigation recommenced forget (or never knew) is that the breach of confidence is so outrageous, so egregious and so utterly corrupt and grubby at every level that it puts anything Husar may have done well in the shade. No complainant should be allowed to prosper out of this. In fact, if possible, they should be exposed and punished.

    For the complainants who may have had legitimate issues, they should look to their co-complainant – the one who couldn’t keep his or her mouth shut – for redress, not Emma Husar or Labor.

    For the cynics and lawyers here who appear to have lost their moral compass – the ones who say “Right or wrong, Husar now has to go” – I suggest you take a break from whatever it is you do and go looking for your hearts. You seem to have left them somewhere.

    In my opinion the Husar battle is now winnable. Ordinary human beings should be outraged at the viciousness of the allegations and (when you think of it) their stupidity, and should be sickened at the casual brutality of the media (a class of people already held in very low esteem by the public) as well as the disgusting hypocrisy of their “revelations”.

    I urge Bill Shorten and his party to stand up for their MP Emma Husar and to try to prevent a repeat of the Thomson, Slipper, Gillard, Rudd (and indeed Kill Bill) lynch mob hysteria which has worked so well in the past.

  9. Bushfire Bill @ #57334 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    Gratified to see that my initial post outlining the breach of Natural Justice issues in the Husar case hit all the key points (plus a few more), if the IA summary today is any guide.

    I still think the investigation has lost any legs it may have had and should be completely abandoned. It is utterly compromised. The complainants just cannot be allowed to breach confidentiality, wreck (or go close to wrecking) the career of the respondent, and still benefit from any adverse outcome that may come from assessment of their allegations.

    A re-start is out of the question because not only is Whelan’s investigation in ruins, but so is the complainant’s moral equity in the matter.

    What many (some of them on this board) who claim it can all be reset and the investigation recommenced forget (or never knew) is that the breach of confidence is so outrageous, so egregious and so utterly corrupt and grubby at every level that it puts anything Husar may have done well in the shade. No complainant should be allowed to prosper out of this. In fact, if possible, they should be exposed and punished.

    For the complainants who may have had legitimate issues, they should look to their co-complainant – the one who couldn’t keep his or her mouth shut – for redress, not Emma Husar or Labor.

    For the cynics and lawyers here who appear to have lost their moral compass – the ones who say “Right or wrong, Husar now has to go” – I suggest you take a break from whatever it is you do and go looking for your hearts. You seem to have left them somewhere.

    In my opinion the Husar battle is now winnable. Ordinary human beings should be outraged at the viciousness of the allegations and (when you think of it) their stupidity, and should be sickened at the casual brutality of the media (a class of people already held in very low esteem by the public) as well as the disgusting hypocrisy of their “revelations”.

    I urge Bill Shorten and his party to stand up for their MP Emma Husar and to try to prevent a repeat of the Thomson, Slipper, Gillard, Rudd (and indeed Kill Bill) lynch mob hysteria which has worked so well in the past.

    Hear hear.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #1452 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    Gratified to see that my initial post outlining the breach of Natural Justice issues in the Husar case hit all the key points (plus a few more), if the IA summary today is any guide.

    I still think the investigation has lost any legs it may have had and should be completely abandoned. It is utterly compromised. The complainants just cannot be allowed to breach confidentiality, wreck (or go close to wrecking) the career of the respondent, and still benefit from any adverse outcome that may come from assessment of their allegations.

    A re-start is out of the question because not only is Whelan’s investigation in ruins, but so is the complainant’s moral equity in the matter.

    What many (some of them on this board) who claim it can all be reset and the investigation recommenced forget (or never knew) is that the breach of confidence is so outrageous, so egregious and so utterly corrupt and grubby at every level that it puts anything Husar may have done well in the shade. No complainant should be allowed to prosper out of this. In fact, if possible, they should be exposed and punished.

    For the complainants who may have had legitimate issues, they should look to their co-complainant – the one who couldn’t keep his or her mouth shut – for redress, not Emma Husar or Labor.

    For the cynics and lawyers here who appear to have lost their moral compass – the ones who say “Right or wrong, Husar now has to go” – I suggest you take a break from whatever it is you do and go looking for your hearts. You seem to have left them somewhere.

    In my opinion the Husar battle is now winnable. Ordinary human beings should be outraged at the viciousness of the allegations and (when you think of it) their stupidity, and should be sickened at the casual brutality of the media (a class of people already held in very low esteem by the public) as well as the disgusting hypocrisy of their “revelations”.

    I urge Bill Shorten and his party to stand up for their MP Emma Husar and to try to prevent a repeat of the Thomson, Slipper, Gillard, Rudd (and indeed Kill Bill) lynch mob hysteria which has worked so well in the past.

    Labor has already started to prepare for Husar’s potential replacement in Lindsay.

  11. shellbell bells the tribals cat

    Indeed.

    It may well turn out that Husar is merely the victim of a factional frame up of particular distastefulness. It is almost certain that leaking the letter is a malicious act for which the leaker if ever caught (which they probably won’t be) should be severely censured.

    But the idea that having got this information the media should just stfu is nonsense. You can’t slag the media off for their failure to follow up on what Joyce was up to and then expect them to keep it in house when they have documentary evidence of complaints against Husar.

    Now of course there are arguments about the flavour of the reporting, issues of balance between a bit of office drama verses a half billion dollar bit of if it ain’t corruption you’re giving corruption a good effort. And lastly a good media would be self aware enough to reduce the chances of it being played to damage one side of a political spat as this Husar matter has seemed to.

    But none of that detracts from the basic truth that the media had to report what they had.

  12. Player One @ #1719 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:13 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1714 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    You consider Australia in isolation to the global situation which is where the problem really exists.

    So your argument is “Others are doing it, so we should too!”?

    This is just wrong on every level.

    No, we have the capacity to help over populated areas and those affected by the impacts of climate change by relieving the pressure and taking more.

  13. cadcow
    ‏ @cadcow
    4m4 minutes ago
    Replying to @Qldaah

    & when Kelly O’Dwyer was asked “why now” on @abcnews about ten minutes ago, she launched into a typical Kellysplain about the virtuous Turmoil Empire’s ongoing tax reduction policies.
    And they let her get away with it.
    #auspol

  14. ratsak

    And lastly a good media would be self aware enough to reduce the chances of it being played to damage one side of a political spat as this Husar matter has seemed to.

    Which comes down to the source of the leak.

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #1459 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:28 am

    Player One @ #1719 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 7:13 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1714 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    You consider Australia in isolation to the global situation which is where the problem really exists.

    So your argument is “Others are doing it, so we should too!”?

    This is just wrong on every level.

    No, we have the capacity to help over populated areas and those affected by the impacts of climate change by relieving the pressure and taking more.

    Given the advancements in environmental protection, renewable energy, transport and communication infrastructure, there’s absolutely no reason why decentralisation can’t happen.
    It only takes voters to wake up and vote accordingly.

  16. Barney in Go Dau @ #1723 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:28 am

    No, we have the capacity to help over populated areas and those affected by the impacts of climate change by relieving the pressure and taking more.

    Leaving aside for a minute that we of course do not have such a capacity, your solution is to take the richest and most talented people from the poorest countries?

    That’s really going to help them control their own population, isn’t it?

  17. Ben Eltham
    ‏Verified account @beneltham
    46s46 seconds ago

    Why hasn’t Jeremy Buckingham stood aside already? Greens are showing they are just another political party

  18. I’m with Player One on popuation. The idea that we can just keep growing forever is ridiculous.

    And decentralisation has been talked about for a century or more, and sometimes even acted on. It’s never worked. Unless we forcibly relocate people, Soviet style, it can never work.

  19. Rex Douglas @ #1726 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:35 am

    Given the advancements in environmental protection, renewable energy, transport and communication infrastructure, there’s absolutely no reason why decentralisation can’t happen.
    It only takes voters to wake up and vote accordingly.

    I think you are missing the point of the argument, Rex. Nobody is arguing against decentralization. The point was that decentralization is not a solution to population growth.

  20. I laughed my head off watching a squirming (again) O’Dwyer try to justify the 180% turn on tampons and trying to blame ALP for not doing it 6 years ago.

    I mean, could this mob get any more pathetic?

  21. Literally going for the crutch is where Workman and the rest of the media whores jumped the shark ratsak.

    The inability to work through basic facts – like the so called comcar abuses and call bullshit, combined with the insidious salaciousness of the crutch allegations should have informed any self respecting ‘decent’ journalist that the leaking is just a stitch up.

    The job of the journalist isn’t to report a claim that it’s raining outside. It’s to walk outside and verify the claim or call bullshit as the case may be.

    By all means report on the fact there are multiple complaints from multiple complainants but when things are obviously leaked to damage regardless of where the truth lies then the leak and the motives behind said leak become THE story not the puerile and provably false allegations.

    If one wants to compare how the media have handled the Husar affair with previous political scandals then the best comparison is not with the Barnaby Joyce affair. It’s with the way ScoMo was able to buffalo his opponent out of a plumb preselction back in 2007.

    Husar may well turn out to be a terrible boss and legitimately disendorsed by Labor for cause. But I fear that she will lose her job because she has been slut shamed, and that makes me very sad. Workman should hang her head in shame.

  22. I’m not following the Emma thing closely, but there are so many complainants there is a question if it is all so publishable why has only buzzfeed run with it after 12 months or more. Doesn’t smell at all right. And the whole basic instinct part was always going to shadow everything else, was clearly leaked / shared with buzzfeed for that very purpose and has been denied by all involved. It also involved not an employer / employee situation but two independent members of parliament.

    But seeing the reactions, including here it certainly is a partisan shibboleth.

    Regardless of the merits, or lack thereof, there is a clear gender / power explanation for the reverence and privacy afforded to Barnaby for so long, and so tightly defended even after the tele did the dirty work; and the all guns blazing approach to Emma.

    For the record I thought it was very wrong of the tele to put Vicki on the front of the paper and I think it was very wrong of buzzfeed to include the basic instinct stuff, but I’m glad shellbell liked it.

  23. We need a seat poll for Lindsay. I wonder if the ALP are doing any internal polling. This will be thier overriding consideration in deciding what to do with Husar.

  24. If the media are going to report of complaints/allegations made against a public servant then it’s not unreasonable for the nature of the allegation to be made available to the public.

  25. Most people who speak against Assange have sacrificed their principles for pragmatism.

    Its sad how many are willing to sacrifice truth and transparency to protect their fragile worldview.

  26. Ratsak, you are wrong.

    A document containing only allegations is not evidence of anything other than that allegations have been made.

    This is especially the case where the document itself, in its own terms states exactly this.

    That the allegations have been merely made is not indication whatsoever of their veracity. This is not a court case or a judicial matter. It is a private workplace complaint that is subject to all the usual legal sanctions and pitfalls (such as actions for defamation) that publication of any private matter risks should confidentiality be breached. This is exactly why these matters must be treated confidentially: if you let the cat out of the bag, you’re toast.

    Thus, the Husar matter differs from other matters such as the Ashby-Slipper and Thomson matters, both of which were protected by judicial, parluamentary and legal privilege. They had both been before a court, or the parliament so it was open slather to discuss them.

    Not so in the Husar case.

    You might be arguing for the right of the media to gossip about Husar’s case, but on doing so you’re also arguing for their right to deny her a fair hearing and to traduce her character,even as they protect the confidentiality and privacy of her accusers.

    Again, I suggest you are seriously wrong on this one mate.

  27. By all means report on the fact there are multiple complaints from multiple complainants but when things are obviously leaked to damage regardless of where the truth lies then the leak and the motives behind said leak become THE story not the puerile and probably false allegations.

    To be clear, this is largely my point.

    If you want to go Workman, then you need to be very tight in confining that critique to one of being a rube. She clearly had A story. And up until the flashing stuff I don’t think there was a great deal to criticise. But as it has gone on and with the added salacious bits it does look very much like she’s being used by one party to maliciously damage another.

    She has a bit of a bind in that if you’ve offered confidentiality you can’t break that, but it is legitimate to press her on if she has perhaps too closely identified with her leak and needs to step back and consider if she has been used.

  28. “Most people who speak against Assange have sacrificed their principles for pragmatism.”

    If it makes you feel better bug I must have started with none because I never got on the Assange bandwagon in the first place. He was always an accused sex offender unwilling to standup to consequences of his actions, and a careless purveyor of secrets without thought or concern for the consequence, other than for himself.

    Of course over time his cowardice and unlawfulness has been shown to be much broader than it first appeared, and his utility as a careless purveyor of secrets much lower than it looked like it might be, even if you account for the damage and the risks. Not as bad as snowden perhaps because he just isn’t smart enough to understand the damage he was doing.

    Then of course he worked with / for the Russians, again not smart enough to be a trusted willing participant much more likely to be a trumpesque fool, against American democracy, so that even if they were willing to ignore his for role in leaking classified US information they would have an even more compelling reason to seek his arrest extradition and very very long jail term.

    But yeah he is a great guy and your principles in continuing to adore him as the Christ returned are as pure as the driven snow. Good work.

  29. “Regardless of the merits, or lack thereof, there is a clear gender / power explanation for the reverence and privacy afforded to Barnaby for so long, and so tightly defended even after the tele did the dirty work; and the all guns blazing approach to Emma.”

    Yes. The different approaches attest to both fear and favour.

  30. Bushfire Bill (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:53 am
    Comment #1724

    Ratsak, you are wrong.

    A document containing only allegations is not evidence of anything other than that allegations have been made.

    Not even that. It is evidence only of itself.

    I like your post re this contemptible matter.

  31. “If you want to go Workman”

    I don’t think you should go workman at all to any extent. I worry for her that she has been played by very unscrupulous parties, notwithstanding Shellbell’s adoration for them, and will pay a price she should not have to pay, when at the same time the slime that published the photo of Vicki is up for some kind of award.

  32. Workman is the issue is as much as she highlights the double standards inherent in this whole business. Double standards that the media pack willfully refuse to recognise.

    ABC reporter Jane Norman got a deserved bollicking on Twitter when she remarked, imagine the outcry if this were a male politician, or similar. The words Barnaby Joyce cropped up in most responses needless to say.

  33. I believe Workman was used. But I also believe she is swept up in her own rise as a journalistic player and how Buzzfeed is gaining impetus.

  34. If there is a swing to the ALP in the coming federal election, Lindsay will be caught up in the Big Mo. irrespective of who the candidate is.

    Oh, and don’t rule out a September 2018 election. Something about Malcolm’s judgement, hubris, and a hot breath down his neck 🙂

Comments Page 35 of 50
1 34 35 36 50

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *