Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Sure: no one wants their son on drug charges. But the attempts by #RayHadley to influence a serious criminal matter now before the courts pleading extenuating circumstances such as mental health, injury, inspector's apology "letting son down" are disgraceful. It's. Not. Radio.— Sandi Logan (@SandiHLogan) August 4, 2018

  7. Hugh Riminton‏Verified account @hughriminton · 12m12 minutes ago

    Dear Karl, might it have been appropriate to mention that @GBRFoundation has been a TODAY show event sponsor? There is some strength in old principles.

  8. Philip Adams on Truffles. Ouch. Use Google trick, pay walled. Outline did not work for me.

    But what power, Malcolm? What’s been the point? The purpose? You will go down in history as the invisible man.

    Another Malcolm, my old friend Malcolm Muggeridge, once made the deadly observation of David Frost that “he rose without trace”. That will be Turnbull’s political epitaph.

    Malcolm Turnbull the invisible man

    In Australian politics, camouflage often begins with deceptive packaging. Over the decades, any outfit branding itself Democratic wasn’t – just as One Nation, hinting at harmony, is haven to every imaginable hatred. . And the Liberal Party? Liberal? The Nats, once claiming to be the farmer’s party, are now unashamedly the parliamentary representatives of fossil fuelishness. Only the Hunters and Shooters wear clear IDs. But it is the PM himself who is the champion of chameleons. Yesterday upon the stair we met the man who wasn’t there. No one could accuse Tony Abbott of invisibility, of camouflaging his intentions and ambitions. He advertises them louder than Harvey Norman. But our Malcolm is the master of disguise and duplicity.

    I’ve told the story of Kerry Packer introducing me to young Malcolm just back from his Rhodes scholarship at Oxford – “never get between this kid and a pile of money”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/columnists/phillip-adams/malcolm-turnbull-the-invisible-man/news-story/cd9532714ff87a9f13772d6af4ad1862

  10. Rex “Abbott wouldn’t have stood a chance against a unified and factually-based Labor/Green minority Govt that was delivering for societies betterment”

    That would be the Greens who joined with the Coalition to defeat Labor’s CPRS in December 2009.

  13. IT was Guardian Australia led by Lenore and Katharine who were almost a lone voice in support of the CEP until it was ‘terminated’.

    Certainly Lenore was.

  15. On ScoMo and the tampon tax…

    With about 9 months to fill before the general election, will the Coalition try to steal all Labor policies and then lie that they thought of them first?

  19. Confessions says: Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    Full ep of today’s Real Time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsxbGTcJKDw

    **********************************************

    THANKS Confessions – been away babysitting today – just got home and had a great laugh with Bill at the HillBilly Nuremberg rally – Saturday feels normal again with Bill back 🙂

  22. Prof. Peter Doherty‏ @ProfPCDoherty · 8h8 hours ago

    The GBR case isn’t about left or right, it’s about due process in handing out a large Federal grant. The most egregious government spending in the “climate” space has been Abbott’s absurd taxpayer-funded scheme, which the present government continues.

  26. Baz’n’Rover‏ @btckr · 7h7 hours ago

    Headline in today’s SMH: Labor members told to stay silent over Husar scandal.

    Excuse me? It’s not a scandal, it’s an inquiry. It’s also what happens when reporters write their own headlines – a job that subeditors used to do.

  27. On ScoMo and the tampon tax…

    With about 9 months to fill before the general election, will the Coalition try to steal all Labor policies and then lie that they thought of them first?

    You wouldn’t know it from the reporting but it was the Greens Party who first made the running on the GST tax on sanitary products.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-04/scott-morrison-vows-to-scrap-tampon-tax/10073498

    Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison has vowed to remove the GST on tampons, describing it as an “anomaly” and a source of frustration for women.
    ::::
    Federal Labor recently promised to remove the tax and to make up the money by applying the tax to some forms of alternative therapy including herbalism, iridology and aromatherapy.

    The GST tax on tampons has been in effect since 2001.

    It’s good to see both major political parties have finally got on board and are supporting the Greens Party who have campaigned on this issue.

    Greens Senator Janet Rice introduced a private member’s bill into the Senate – Treasury Laws Amendment (Axe the Tampon Tax) Bill 2018. This bill has passed the Senate with the support of members of the crossbench and Labor and is now before the HoR.

    https://janet-rice.greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-bill-axe-tampon-tax-passes-senate

  28. poroti (Block)
    Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 4:30 pm
    Comment #1908

    Philip Adams on Truffles. Ouch. Use Google trick, pay walled. Outline did not work for me.

    BK mentioned this a few days ago.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/columnists/phillip-adams/malcolm-turnbull-the-invisible-man/news-story/cd9532714ff87a9f13772d6af4ad1862

    Install Anti-Paywall as an addon and this item plus beaucoup other become readable.
    Easy to do with Firefox a little more difficult with Chrome.

  29. Davidwh says:

    Poroti yes it’s all clear to me now.

    Not all of the cunning plan. Bet you do not know which of us the Bludger Lounge sent to Bribie Island disguised as a ‘sweet little old lady’ to waggle fingers ‘with’ Malcolm ? 😆

  30. was it just me or did anyone else parse that post this way:
    and it’s only our great LNP who will keep our boards closed from the budgie smugglers

  32. “With about 9 months to fill before the general election, will the Coalition try to steal all Labor policies and then lie that they thought of them first?”

    No, just the ones they think swinging voters would like and their base would tolerate. And they might lie about implementing them if that is after the election.

  33. Sandi Logan quoted by Rex “But the attempts by #RayHadley to influence a serious criminal matter now before the courts pleading extenuating circumstances such as mental health, injury, inspector’s apology “letting son down” are disgraceful”

    Surely Ray hasn’t gone soft on crime all of a sudden?

  34. Chris Bowen‏Verified account @Bowenchris · 6m6 minutes ago

    Chris Bowen Retweeted Josh Frydenberg

    Actually @JoshFrydenberg we are supporting good governance and probity. That you could spend half a billion dollars without proper process is nothing short of a scandal.

    BandieraRossa‏ @fran_b__ · Aug 2

    And because this is a private rather thsn a public body, the regime is able to say that the work of the Foundation should get ‘commercial in confidence’ protection so as to shield it from scrutiny, when a government body would be accountable. This is totally dodgy.

  35. I can’t see them getting a single bit of credit for the change of tax on tampons.

    Besides, don’t they have to get approval from the states? IIRC that’s what they said last time.

    Yes, I believe it was the greens who first proposed the exemption.

  37. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/08/02/the-world-is-losing-the-war-against-climate-change?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2018/08/2n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/ap/140375/n

    Western countries grew wealthy on a carbon-heavy diet of industrial development. They must honour their commitment in the Paris agreement to help poorer places both adapt to a warmer Earth and also abate future emissions without sacrificing the growth needed to leave poverty behind.

    Averting climate change will come at a short-term financial cost—although the shift from carbon may eventually enrich the economy, as the move to carbon-burning cars, lorries and electricity did in the 20th century. Politicians have an essential role to play in making the case for reform and in ensuring that the most vulnerable do not bear the brunt of the change. Perhaps global warming will help them fire up the collective will. Sadly, the world looks poised to get a lot hotter first.

  38. No sympathy for Hadley from me. He’s used his prominent and influential position to demonise countless people over the decades in spite of the evidence against his position. Show him no mercy.

  39. Fess

    Realtime was good. I expected Steve Schmidt to succintly outline what is at stake with Trump and his fellow travellers. And he delivered.

  40. I can’t see them getting a single bit of credit for the change of tax on tampons.

    Maybe ScoMo can carry a box of tampax into QT to prove how committed they are to removing the GST off women’s sanitary items.

  41. Vic:

    And the historian from Duke was pretty insightful too. I had no idea the machinations the Koch brothers were unleashing behind the scenes, or that Trump’s Scotus nominee was really their nominee.

  43. Even if you accept that Rudd, who promised, with Howard, to take action on climate change, should not have tried to do so while maintaining political support for Labor (ie if you think he should have done his best to help Malcolm and / or the greens to his own cost) this is not a lack of support for strong action on climate change it is just a stupid way to achieve it and when you add in Gillard’s subsequent actual scheme, you have to be the biggest idiot and worst troll on the internet to fall for or propagate the ‘pox on both houses’ approach.

  47. WeWantPaul @ #1679 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Even if you accept that Rudd, who promised, with Howard, to take action on climate change, should not have tried to do so while maintaining political support for Labor (ie if you think he should have done his best to help Malcolm and / or the greens to his own cost) this is not a lack of support for strong action on climate change it is just a stupid way to achieve it and when you add in Gillard’s subsequent actual scheme, you have to be the biggest idiot and worst troll on the internet to fall for or propagate the ‘pox on both houses’ approach.

    The idiots were Rudd and Abbott for the parts in the destruction of the Gillard Govt’s CEP.

  49. Silver Bodgie:

    You know as I pressed submit on that I did think that someone probably already had a nice photo prepared! 😆

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