Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Evan,

    It is utter bollocks that the Russians influenced anyone in anyway in those states, let alone the US in how they voted.

  2. Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:47 pm
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/16/investigating-a-catholic-school-body-is-no-dark-conspiracy

    It’s a credibility test that Catholic Education Melbourne has regularly failed as it defends an indefensible – a special funding deal at the expense of other public and independent schools. The scripture says God does not show favouritism, but that rule clearly doesn’t apply to schools funding.

    I’m not necessarily a supporter of Samantha Maiden’s views (given her Murdoch background) but she is entitled to collect a few dollars writing for the Guardian after being booted from Sky.

  3. And the “Liberals” would love nothing better than to turn the main topic of conversation to asylum seekers. Labor doesn’t talk much about the subject for the same reason that the “Liberals” don’t talk about what they’re going to cut to pay for tax cuts for big corporations and the wealthy.

  4. Steve HollandVerified account@steveholland1
    1h1 hour ago
    The Russian news agency RIA says Pres Putin will deny meddling in US elections in meeting with Pres Trump but will say Russia is ready for dialogue on the issue.

    First question in that dialogue: ‘Will you hand over those 12 Russians indicted for the election hacking and stealing data from a state election website?’

  5. Oh Dear!

    “Australians attempting to opt out of the government’s new centralised health records system online have been met with an unreliable website. Those phoning in have faced horrendous wait times, sometimes more than two hours, often to find that call centre systems were down as well, and staff unable to help.

    The Australian Digital Health Agency (ADHA), which runs the My Health Record system, is reportedly telling callers that they weren’t expecting the volume of opt-outs.

    “On hold with @MyHealthRec for over 1.5 HOURS to opt out without providing my drivers license/passport number. Turns out their entire backed system has crashed and they are telling support staff to just punch peoples details into the website. Confidence inspiring!” tweeted one caller.

    “The person i’m speaking to is stressed as f***. Its their first day. I feel bad for her but she also has no idea what’s going on and puts me on hold every time I ask something that’s not on the script.”

    The problems started early on Monday, the first day of the three-month opt-out period before digital health records are created automatically.’

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/my-health-record-systems-collapse-under-more-opt-outs-than-expected/

  6. CC

    bollocks you seem to know an awful lot –
    if election tight russia swung it ditto brexit
    a necessary cleansing is happening thank g hopefully outcome is worth the pain and wait

  7. Compact Crank @ #394 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Player One

    Yes, ridiculous. The article itself is titled as a Theory. It is not proven. As for the second article which just shows people who know people – that proves nothing either.

    Of course it is not yet proven. It probably won’t be proven until Mueller finishes investigating.

    But it is clearly not “ridiculous”, as you tried to claim. On the contrary – it is a theory being seriously considered, discussed, investigated and reported.

  8. of course russia wouldn’t know what a close election was, neither does it tolerate or respect any system that produces such a thing

    on the list of moral capital the russian state is way down: it takes to weight of sanctions and nato to stop them wreaking havoc

  9. The implications of Holden Hillbilly’s contribution should not be ignored – including given Howard’s Borrowers who drove the amount we owed to our Home Mortgage lenders from $335 Billion in 2000 to $1.226 Trillion by the time the GFC impacted and banks stopped lending

    The time bomb Howard left being a debt driven economy including allowing Superannuation Funds to borrow has been masked by the post GFC interest rate regime giving absolute advantage to borrowers over savers – as has Capital had absolute advantage over labour

    The worm is turning

    That is why we need a change of government to manage the transition and the fall out

    A government not beholden to who the current government is beholden to for starters

    The problems date from 2000

    Look at the RBA data – and why the RBA Governor is saying what he is saying on wages

    Bear in mind also that the Treasury Secretary is on the RBA Board – another clear and present danger

  10. “On hold with @MyHealthRec for over 1.5 HOURS to opt out without providing my drivers license/passport number. Turns out their entire backed system has crashed and they are telling support staff to just punch peoples details into the website. Confidence inspiring!” tweeted one caller.

    I’ve deliberately parked opting out until later on (I believe you have until October to do so) precisely because I expected these kinds of problems.

  11. Is this supposed to mean that Trump intends to “fix” the presumed bad relations between US and Russia caused by Obama? What secret deals will Trump do with Putin?

    Obama jab over Russia ties
    7:15PM
    Donald Trump says US-Russia relations have ‘never been worse’, and has blamed his White House predecessor. (Oz headline)

  12. I ask Bludgers to consider my viewpoint as the only Bludger who voted for Clinton combined with having a brother (recently retired from the military-industrial complex) who’s a FauxNews addict. .

    Trump is less likely than Clinton to ignite a nuclear war because Mammon is his God, so he would never put in harm’s way his plethora of current and potential golden geese scattered around the planet.

    Clinton has never met a regime change she didn’t like. Voted for Bush’s Iraq War and later justified that nonsensical decision by claiming she didn’t bother to read the CIA warnings which the “Nay” Senators raised in the debate. Clinton was hawkish as Sec. of State, such as the Libya debacle. Bill Clinton was not much of a hawk, although I doubt Hillary gives a rat’s arse what Bill thinks about anything other than speech writing.

  13. Thanks to all those who posted about potassium in bananas and its health effects.

    I know it sounds ridiculous, but it’s serious to me and I needed to be sure.

    Thanks again.

  14. Murdoch organs are trumpeting the latest OzTAM rating figures for SkyNews. On my calculations, a staggering 1% of Australians watch this dross.

    Among the network’s most popular shows, Credlin, anchored by Peta Credlin at 6pm on weeknights, emerged as the No 1 program in its timeslot on Foxtel. Credlin clocked up audience growth of 166 per cent year-on-year, reaching an average weekly audience of 208,000 viewers.

    The Bolt Report, anchored by News Corp columnist Andrew Bolt at 7pm on weeknights, had audience growth of 36 per cent, watched by an average weekly audience of 239,000 viewers.

    Paul Murray LIVE was the No 1 nightly program on Foxtel in its timeslot each Sunday to Thursday at 9pm. It was watched by an average weekly audience of 268,000 viewers.

  15. 7.30 tonight
    For those poor souls that think the ABC is in any way relevant ..
    Interviewing Sebastian Gorker… mad neo nazi , supposed PHD .. Trump adviser now sacked from WH.. ex lecturer at West Point.. total right wing fraud. .. really
    ABC … Sell it now .. give it away

  16. BW

    And there’s more to come…

    The results bode well for Bruce Gordon’s WIN Network, which has agreed to a program supply deal with Sky News.

    Sky News on WIN will launch this year to a potential audience of 5.2 million regional Australians. Sky News has not appeared on a free-to-air TV network until now. Sky News is owned by The Australian’s publisher, News Corp.

  17. Ante Meridian

    Would it be a good time to tell you about the radioactivity of bananas ? 🙂 There is even a radioactivity dose based on bananas. Don’t worry it 18000th of sfa.

    Banana equivalent dose (BED) is an informal measurement of ionizing radiation exposure, intended as a general educational example to compare a dose of radioactivity to the dose one is exposed to by eating one average-sized banana.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose

  18. Paul Murray LIVE was the No 1 nightly program on Foxtel in its timeslot each Sunday to Thursday at 9pm. It was watched by an average weekly audience of 268,000 viewers.

    Paul Murray is arguably the least ideological of all of them.

    I wonder how Gary Hardgrave’s show is faring?

  19. Sprocket,
    That diabolical SkyNoose deal is the fulfilment Murdoch’s dream. What a cheap and easy way to propagandise free-to-air voters. It won’t cost him a cent more in production costs, except for cross-promotional material in the rest of the evil empire.

  20. Sprocket ~ says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 7:52 pm
    BW

    And there’s more to come…

    The results bode well for Bruce Gordon’s WIN Network, which has agreed to a program supply deal with Sky News.

    Sky News on WIN will launch this year to a potential audience of 5.2 million regional Australians. Sky News has not appeared on a free-to-air TV network until now. Sky News is owned by The Australian’s publisher, News Corp.

    WIN TV in Canberra is posting a notice on its previously unused fourth channel that Sky News will be starting “soon”. The new channel will face stiff competition from disgraced US evangelist Jimmy Swaggart’s channel, the horse racing channel and a variety of shopping channels designed to part fools from their money.

  21. hungry jack,

    Where is your evidence?

    We know they spent a pittance on social media. How is their messaging suddenly so powerful it overwhelming shifts votes compared to all other political messaging in those campaigns?

    You’d think the Kremlin would have puppet governments installed throughout the West given how powerful they are. Apparently.

  22. poroti
    Thanks. I have just exiled our bananas to the great outdoors. One night of minus seven ought to fix those insidious revolutionaries.

  23. Boerwar,

    “So… potatoes and steak are really bad for the heart, compared with bananas.”

    Yes, Dracula can attest to that.

  24. Rex Douglas @ #368 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Pegasus @ #337 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/australia-to-deport-tamil-asylum-seeker-and-separate-him-from-baby-daughter

    A 30-year-old Tamil asylum seeker faces permanent separation from his wife, and 10-month-old Australian-born daughter, after being issued with a deportation notice more than six years after arriving in Australia.
    :::
    Australia routinely separates families within its immigration regime. At least half a dozen fathers on Nauru have never met their children, after their pregnant partners were taken to Australia to give birth. Husbands and wives, as well as siblings and parents, are separated by Australia’s offshore processing system.

    Family unity is a fundamental principle of international and Australian domestic law. Australia is a party to the convention on the rights of the child, which states that children have a right to know and be cared for by their parents, and should grow up in a family environment wherever possible. It is also a party to the international covenant on civil and political rights, which says the family “is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the state”.

    All the outrage about Trump and family separations. It’s happening here.

    Liberal and Labor people couldn’t care less.

    What exactly have you done about it other than whinge and pretend you’ve got some self righteous grounds to criticise others.

    You’re a do nothing hand wringing wanker!

  25. So is Murdoch looking to further align Australia with America and the UK?

    Look at the Republican States and where the Brexit vote was

    A regional and rural rump of religious, gun toting red necks educated by Murdoch

  26. Observer @ #428 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:21 pm

    A regional and rural rump of religious, gun toting red necks educated by Murdoch

    I don’t know if “educated” is the correct term here. If you consume Murdoch media, you end up less well informed than if you spent the same amount of time with a bucket on your head.

  27. Well of course it is! Trump meeting his puppet master was always going to rate more important than meeting with supposed US allies.

    Steve RosenbergVerified account@BBCSteveR
    14h14 hours ago
    Russian state TV tonight suggests that, for Donald Trump, the meeting with Vladimir Putin is more important than the NATO summit & UK visit: “The show is over. Now the work begins. After all, he was just passing through Brussels & London on the way to Helsinki.”

  28. Poroti, crowdfunding?

    I like your thinking The novelty value alone will attract many clicks.

    At $200+ a bottle I need all the help I can get.

    I really should stop tasting expensive whiskey in late night groovy city laneway bars. Or, as you suggest, I lobby to get it on the PBS.

  29. Why the US needs to be on alert for the mid terms. It is a concern that Trump’s Administration seems not to care about their elections being hacked by hostile foreign influences.

    Carole CadwalladrVerified account@carolecadwalla
    Jul 13
    Polite reminder. Trump & Brexit are not 2 different things. They are the same thing. Same companies. Same data. Same Facebook. Same Russians. Same Cambridge Analytica. Same Robert Mercer. Same Steve Bannon. Same Breitbart. Same Alexander Nix. Same Donald Trump. Same Nigel Farage.

    :large

  30. Simon² Katich® @ #431 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:37 pm

    Poroti, crowdfunding?

    I like your thinking The novelty value alone will attract many clicks.

    At $200+ a bottle I need all the help I can get.

    I really should stop tasting expensive whiskey in late night groovy city laneway bars. Or, as you suggest, I lobby to get it on the PBS.

    You should just get over quaffing wines!

  31. ‘fess
    we are going to get that weather in the early hours of tomorrow. NNW winds predicted. No big trees to the NNW and the ‘mountain’ normally protects us from that direction.

    When it turns to the West (where the big trees are) during the day it is only the cats in charge of the house. No stress there.

  32. Bludgers might find this podcast interesting, in relation to population debates.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/conversations/mei-fong-rpt/9784848

    The One-Child Policy: understanding China’s radical social experiment

    China’s one-child policy was the brainchild of a rocket scientist, and was in place for 36 years.

    Intended to curb population growth while the nation grew more prosperous, it caused immense suffering, and its ill-effects may prove irreversible.

    Journalist Mei Fong says it has had a devastating effect on contemporary China, which she now says is ‘too old, too male and too few’.

  33. @Observer

    Regional Australia I would argue is less socially conservative than the migrant heavy suburbs of Melbourne (Northern and South-Eastern) and Western Sydney. For example; in the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite even in Queensland only two electorates recorded a No vote (Kennedy and Groom) and the margin was fairly narrow. While a number of Western Sydney electorates recorded some strong No (74% in the Bankstown based electorate of Blaxland) votes.

  34. Puffy, The Magic Dragon @ #436 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:49 pm

    Bludgers might find this podcast interesting, in relation to population debates.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/conversations/mei-fong-rpt/9784848

    The One-Child Policy: understanding China’s radical social experiment

    China’s one-child policy was the brainchild of a rocket scientist, and was in place for 36 years.

    Intended to curb population growth while the nation grew more prosperous, it caused immense suffering, and its ill-effects may prove irreversible.

    Journalist Mei Fong says it has had a devastating effect on contemporary China, which she now says is ‘too old, too male and too few’.

    Sounds like the Anzac Day parade!

  35. You should just get over quaffing wines!

    Wine? No mate. Wine is SO last year. You are probably still wearing that dove grey cardigan too.

  36. Gee, The Greens are killing it in the Fremantle by-election:


    FREMANTLE BY-ELECTION
    Labor
    $1.01
    Greens
    $9.00

    🙂

  37. Simon² Katich® @ #435 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    ‘fess
    we are going to get that weather in the early hours of tomorrow. NNW winds predicted. No big trees to the NNW and the ‘mountain’ normally protects us from that direction.

    When it turns to the West (where the big trees are) during the day it is only the cats in charge of the house. No stress there.

    No damage here except for a brief power outage and a few branches coming down. I badly mis-timed my departure from work and got caught in a squall running from the office to my car, but apart from that I was lucky that I didn’t have to go anywhere today so could stay indoors and out of the weather.

    It’s a fast moving system so it’ll be done and dusted before you know it.

  38. Douglas and Milko @ #398 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    A question for Evan and William,

    Reachtel have obviously been in the field, but no poll results have been announced.

    Is this unusual? Could it be that the Reachtel poll was for a group who want to know the answers but will not make the results public? any unusual question on the poll?

    Thanks in advance!

    I’ve had a lot of Reachtel calls lately (Queensland) They have all offered a choice of four different polls and of course I always choose the politics one.

    They only ask for voting intention and the Coalition is always the first option. After the age and gender questions they ask about union membership including whether I would like someone to contact me about participating in a union or a campaign.

    I suspect it’s some sort of tracking poll organised by a union aligned body. Perhaps the reason they always put the coalition first is so they get a conservative rather than an over optimistic idea of the Labor vote.

  39. Puffy, The Magic Dragon @ #436 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:49 pm

    Journalist Mei Fong says it has had a devastating effect on contemporary China, which she now says is ‘too old, too male and too few’.

    No way to be certain of course, but the effects of an additional population of around 400 million (itself a contested figure) would probably have had consequences that were just as bad, if not worse.

  40. Lovey:

    “Nades faces persecution for his former association with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, which was militarily defeated by the Sri Lankan armed forces in 2009.”

    So much threat that he’s been back at least three times.

  41. It’s long but it’s a good read:

    Instead, Murdoch seems to exist in his own time, an era rather than a character. “What does Rupert Murdoch want?” the now deceased Christopher Hitchens asked, 28 years ago. He was already part of the fourth decade of Murdoch observers, and the library trying to answer this question stretches and swells to the present day. Delving into it finds almost spooky continuities. Reading The Australian, I thought “vendetta journalism” seemed a concise, if obvious, description of the paper’s style, and wondered if anyone had used it before. Donald Horne had, in 1975, years before I was born. In 1969, Murdoch and the then editor, Larry Lamb, redesigned The Sun, inventing the enduring form of the modern tabloid – right down to the red top. Murdoch was then, as now, in competition with a new technology threatening the print media. It was colour television.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/july/1530367200/richard-cooke/endless-reign-rupert-murdoch?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2015%20July%202018&utm_content=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2015%20July%202018+CID_1e5350285ec215201664b0521a86165d&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=The%20endless%20reign%20of%20Rupert%20Murdoch

  42. In that podcast, the journalist talks of visiting a village in China whose residents are all single males. Apparently there is a population difference of 50 million more males than females. She speaks of the plight of parents whose only child dies and they lose all social status. They are called ‘dead branches’, because their line is ended.

    Interestingly, China had a population policy which was working, (have children later, further apart and fewer) when they brought in the one child policy. The OCP was based on an obscure Western mathematical paper theoretically dealing with a population problem of a non-existent island.

    It is an interesting podcast.

  43. Puffy, The Magic Dragon @ #447 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:11 pm

    In that podcast, the journalist talks of visiting a village in China whose residents are all single males. Apparently there is a population difference of 50 million more males than females. She speaks of the plight of parents whose only child dies and they lose all social status. They are called ‘dead branches’, because their line is ended.

    India has a similar problem, of course …

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/30/health/india-unwanted-girls-intl/index.html

    The preference for boys and the availability of sex-selective operations, although illegal in India, means there’s a gender gap of as many as 63 million girls, classified in the report as “missing.”

    A report by Kanya.Life, an anti-infanticide organization which uses data analysis to provide insight into the problem, reports that the worst city for gender imbalance is Mahesana in the state of Gujarat, with a ratio of only 762 women for every 1,000 men.

    Of the two countries, China is by far the better off – largely because they brought their population growth under control. India is yet to tackle this problem.

  44. The chromosome you inherit from your father is a random mixture of the 1000 or so genes on both your fathers chromosomes. (Actually it’s more complicated than that as you will often get parts of a gene from from each chromosome). In effect, you get a random selection of 30,000 genes so the chance of not sharing any DNA with a sibling is 0.5 to the power of 30,000.

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