The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.
UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.
Diogenes @ #449 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:33 pm
About the same as you finding the Wimbeldon Final on FTA TV.
Diogs,
Thanks. I knew it was more complicated than a binomial, but couldn’t recall how.
The corollary of that is that having exactly 50% the same DNA as a sibling, even one of the same gender, is vanishingly small.
I think we’ve found the end of the rabbit hole.
There is an emphasis on here on Trump, which is a distraction in the hands of Americans exclusively.
In Australia we have pending problems with great capacity to disrupt
Start with HH’s referencing the FR article on pressure on interest rates – aligned to the level of private debt racked up particularly from 2000 until the GFC and the RBA Governor comments on wages
Then bank lending – which is the cornerstone of economic activity when correctly appraised and approved
We did not survive the GFC as well as some would have for a raft of technical reasons – and the real danger from the GFC is that the continuation of emergency settings for interest rates has masked a major problem – an economy that grew on private debt post 2000 until the GFC
The balance in exclusive favour of borrowers and Capital over savers and labour will not persist for ever
These pending problems are not addressed
House prices are mentioned but they are a factor of a willing buyer and a willing seller – and other areas such as discretionary spending will suffer prior
The attachment Australians have to housing is real – so keys will not be returned to Lenders noting the PC covenants in mortgage documentation
Media is compromised by Party political bias – witness the “soft sell” of 7 and 9 and now the ABC attempting to infiltrate opinion (the Costello Phoenix 9 would have you believe crime is rampant by their “stories” which dominate their “News” services)
These are just for starters
We should be concentrating on the circumstances confronting this Nation, the reasons and prospective remedies
Trump is a convenient side show giving cover to where the real problems are in Australia
I hope this is simply over-reactive melodrama, but with Trump who knows!
Initial reaction: Trump and Putin share a penchant for overly long ties.
C@t: Having watched the (quite good) 4C program on the Thai cave extraction, I was wrong: they did not just use beta blockers to slow the kids pulse rate (and thus O2 consumption) they actually sedated them (probably with benzodiazepines) for the 2-5 hr transfer. Well done Richard Harris.
Trump told the Finnish President Just now he enjoyed spending time with him at the NATO summit. Finland is not part of NATO. #awkward @jaketapper @camanpour
LU
It’s even more complicated than that as one of the two chromosomes you inherit gets switched off at random.
The guy on the left is a nervous subordinate to his boss on the right!
Diogs,
Yes, phenotype and gene expression are another thing altogether compared to “just” genetics.
Sprocket
Whoops..
President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö attended the NATO summit in Brussels on 11–12 July 2018. President Niinistö was invited to attend a working dinner for heads of state and government on Wednesday 11 July and a meeting to discuss the NATO Resolute Support crisis management operation on Thursday 12 July. NATO members were joined at Wednesday’s dinner by NATO’s Enhanced Opportunity partners Finland and Sweden as well as the EU.
Confessions @ #453 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:40 pm
Yeah, it’s that first thing. Trump may be an unrepentant, treasonous bastard, but he doesn’t have the power to surrender things he doesn’t actually control.
“Which is more dangerous, an incompetent fool or a competent fool ?”…. I dispute your assertion that Hillary is a fool, but let’s play the game. A competent “fool” is far less dangerous. In my view it’s the fact that the nuclear powers have been run by competent fools that explains why we are not back to living in caves. Incompetent fools may start a mess…. even if it is by accident, not really worrying or even seeing the potential consequences of their actions.
Trump is one of those guys who does things…. because he can’t see why others haven’t done it. He probably thinks because they are stupid, until he messes things up, then what?
Moreover, Trump (just like Yeltsin was) can be easily manipulated. That’s exactly what Kim Jong-un did, he played with Trump and his ego…. That’s certainly what Putin is doing. Soon the EU will realise that Trump is not the American leading President they have been used to since WWII. They will give up on him and treat him like the moron that he is.
In any event, Trump is already amassing a large amount of money in preparation for the Presidential campaign, what kind of Democrat candidate do you think will be able to defeat him?…. Sanders?…. How would Sanders defeat Trump?
Sprocket
Maybe Jake Trapper should google before hitting send
This is the best answer I can find that explains it well. 0.498 is shared between sibs with a standard deviation of 0.036.
https://www.quora.com/Do-full-siblings-always-have-50-same-DNA-or-is-it-an-average
The Economistt with an interesting take on US politics.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/07/12/american-democracys-built-in-bias-towards-rural-republicans?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/americandemocracysbuiltinbiastowardsruralrepublicansvotingreform
Growler, you couldn’t be more correct…. The USA are starting to be run from Moscow.
…. Very unstable times ahead….
Alpo @ #463 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:02 pm
Ohh, I know this. Literally anyone.
The same way anyone defeats Trump. By not being Trump. This idea that the Democrats need some mythical superstar to stand a chance against Trump is absurd.
Trump is self-defeating. A flaming bag of shit wins against Trump. Hillary won against Trump by 3 million votes.
This is the best answer I can find that explains it well. 0.498 is shared between sibs with a standard deviation of 0.036
Winner! I know a set of sufficient statistics when I see them.
Greensborough Growler @ #458 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:53 pm
Guy on the right thinks: ‘Be careful what you wish for.’
Tristo@8:50pm
It is not neccisarily true that all people who voted ‘No’ for SSM are conservative.
Another interesting point from the podcast is that by contracting population growth, GDP got bigger (less eating the pie) but as workers get older there are less workers to retired, GDP will fall (pie not growing). To put it as well as I understand it.
So China may not be the powerhouse of the future after all?
rhwombat @ #454 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:41 pm
Yeah. They probably used one of those short-acting ones like temazepam. You can get anything in Thailand! 🙂
Actually guy on the right is probably thinking ‘Who knew my most fevered wishes would be answered so accurately and swiftly?!’
C@tmomma @ #6572 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:14 pm
Doubt it – midazolam has a half life of ~ 60 min iv and only 2-3x that subcut, so too short. Possibly lorazepam, but more likely clonazepam- or even diazepam.
Beta blockers for the first time in kids is a bit risky and unpredictable. Harry probably used lorazepam or alprazolam.
You don’t take someone who is undergoing a psychotic break back to their home!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/ellenbrook-murder-accused-at-midland-hospital-hours-before-alleged-killings-20180716-p4zrtw.html
rhwombat @ #474 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:26 pm
I’m sure ‘Harry’ Harris knew exactly what to do but I would have thought Clonazepam a bit heavy duty. Lorazepam too. But, yes, titrate the dose to the patient…Honestly, a short-acting barbiturate, if they are still around, would have been good. They are used on kids, even babies! Or they used to be. I admit my practice isn’t current wrt Hospital Pharmacy.
Diogenes @ #475 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:28 pm
Alprazolam is a possibility.
Diogenes @ #457 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:45 pm
Switched off Dio. Surely not entirely. There are lots of autosomal situations where both chromosomes word eg AB blood type or rhesus factor of sickle cell anemia!
Hmm.
Japan is getting everything atm.
Decrease in population.
Couples not making babies.
More older people.
Earthquakes.
Now heatwaves:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/07/16/national/two-people-dead-nearly-2000-suffered-heat-exhaustion-heat-wave-continues-across-nation/#.W0w7VYgzZE4
Trump in Helsinki. Methinks he needs to lay off the bronzer. WTF?
Too many people die after hospitals fuck up and send patients home with serious mental illness. This is another three preventable deaths. We all scoff and deride the US for allowing so many gun deaths caused by the NRA but we’ve got a log in our collective eyes about mental health suicides and murders after people seek help in public hospitals. We’ll do the same thing the Americans do and shrug our shoulders.
Compact Crank @ #394 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:22 pm
Trump tells Russia to do a thing that Russia then does.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsvWg2FBnts
None is so blind as ye who will not see.
C@t
from earlier, Greens in Fremantle, two words. Adele Carles.
What is it about PHON and scum sucking bottom dweller candidates?
Do they have no competency at vetting?
Is it only human slime willing to run as PHON candidates?
Or is it that PHON actually likes to hire scum because they represent PHON voters?
Labor wins Longman, big Trev LNP, lied about receiving a military service medal. It’s all over for him.
Labor wins Longman, big Trev LNP, lied about receiving a military service medal. It’s all over for him.
That’s huge. How much of the spray of excrement from the fan will hit Turnbull and the government in general?
perhaps the murdoch media will give up on trying to bring on a leadership spill in the ALP. The Oz’s partisan bias for the past few days has been more of joke than usual.
Puffy, The Magic Dragon @ #436 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 5:49 pm
It highlights the demographic issues that have been so lacking in the debate here.
I think we may have a few rocket scientist.
After the ALP Urban debacle in WA, over which the coalition waxed sanctimoniously with so much faux outrage, you’d think they’d have enough smarts to check out their own candidates!
Medals! I would have thought that any would be politicians spouting about their awards for bravery would sound a warning to any Party they seek endorsement from.
Do they have the same hard core of climate deniers in Japan as here?
PCC
I reckon they are verywhere.
@ The Intellectual Bogan:
Sure, why not? Maybe with that irrelevant twit as leader, they’ll finally fade back into whatever Marxist frat club spawned them.
Re: Longman and the fake-medal LNP candidate. I wouldn’t assume that the seat’s in the bag just yet. For it to hurt the LNP, the media spivs would have to carry it – and the brain-dead LNP zombies would have to give a farq about it. Neither is remotely assured – the Right’s voters are rusted-on lemmings, and the media are in the Liberals’ pockets.
@a r:
So why is Trump President, then? Because Hillary is a sanctimonious idiot who thought she could run up the popular vote total like it meant 2/5 of 5/8 of sweet fuck-all, the whole time ignoring the critical battleground States. You’d think that after the 2000 debacle, she of ALL people would realize that the popular vote is as meaningful as tits on a bull, but nope! Straight for the shiny, she was – she had the election in the bag, every single fucking overpaid Beltway consultant said so! And look where that’s gotten America – on the brink of Fascism, because some well-fed privileged brat in DC underestimated the depth of contempt which people felt for a candidate with 30+ years’ worth of baggage.
Pathetic. And the idea that 2020 will be in any sense a “free” election is daft, to say the least – the entire treasonous GOP has made sure that the doors are wide open to the same level of interference, or even moreso.
Matt @ #496 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 1:29 am
Because 1) the electoral college is undemocratic rubbish, and 2) nobody bothered to fix it after the 2000 election made this clear, and 3) a few thousand voters in a handful of states got suckered by a wave of well-timed overtly-political anti-Hillary propaganda and screwed everybody.
However, the idea that the thing that most people actually want can mean “2/5 of 5/8 of sweet fuck-all” in a democracy is a nonsense.
Matt – Hillary’s voter turn out projections in all the key states plummeted in the wake of ‘the emails’ redux ‘scandal’ 9 days out. It is false, very false, to say that her campaign simply ignored the battleground states. The online trolls and bots feed off that ‘scandal’ and voter turn out, especially amongst the millennials and black males, was exceptionally low. That, in combination with a surge in voter turn out in rural areas in the rust belt and Florida is what swung the election.