Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 11
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  2. Alpo;

    How can the investigation start at the bottom when the Democrats refused to co-operate with investigating the actual machines that where allegedly hacked. They refuse access to servers and reduce the investigation to he said, she said. What motive could the democrats have to impede the investigation like that ?
    ‘The DNC maintains there’s a simple answer to this question: According to the group, the FBI never asked to see their servers. But FBI Director James Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee back in January that the FBI did, in fact, issue “multiple requests at different levels” to the DNC to gain direct access to their computer systems and conduct their own forensic analysis.’
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2017/05/09/the_fbi_is_harder_to_trust_on_the_dnc_hack_because_it_relied_on_crowdstrike.html

    Im not pro trump, but i see Hillary as being very hawkish, probably more authoritarian that Trump, and certainly more capable of asserting her authority over the world.
    Which is more dangerous, an incompetent fool or a competent fool ?

  4. GIGO!
    I had the opportunity to trawl through the original Australian records covering my family’s migration in the 1950’s. They were a shambles.

  6. b1
    ‘Im not pro trump, but i see Hillary as being very hawkish, probably more authoritarian that Trump, and certainly more capable of asserting her authority over the world.
    Which is more dangerous, an incompetent fool or a competent fool ?’

    1. Trump sucks up to international thugs.
    2. Trump is weakening Western Alliance systems thereby enabling international thugs: Duterte, Kim, Xi and Putin.
    3. Trump has triggered what is heading towards the mother of all trade wars.
    4. Trump has systematically gutted environmental protections in the US.
    5. Trump has sytematically gutted national and international action on global warming.
    6. Trump is systematically the international rule of law. In particular he is gutting the WTO and the United Nations.
    7. Trump has pulled out of: the Paris Accords, the Iran Agreement, NAFTA, and the TPP. He is busy undermining the G7 and NATO.
    8. Trump systematically undermines his democratic allies. The count is over 30 democracies to date.
    In short, ALL the international arrangements upon which Australia has depended for both its prosperity and its security are being destroyed by Trump, as is our climate.

    The notion that Clinton would have generated anywhere near any of this level of massive, systemic and global destruction is risible.

  7. Diogenes @ #317 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    “there are 46 chromosomes of which you get 23 from each parent. Theoretically you could get the total opposite of your sister and sharer nothing in common.”
    This ain’t so. You are the combination of two gametes, each containing 23 chromosomes from your parents. But each gamete chromosome is a mixture of both chromosomes from that parent as it forms during meiosis. So you share pretty much exactly 50% of your DNA with each sibling.

    No so Dio

    Or not exactly. You are certain to get 23 chromosomes from each parent. However if Sibling A receives a set of 46 chromosomes 23 from each parent there is actually not a high chance that all the Sibling B would be 50% the same. .

    Excluding the sex chromosomes when the 44 chromosomes align for meiosis they sort randomly (or at least that is the standard theory). So when two ova are formed it is theoretically possible that none of the 22 are the same (OK tiny chance 1/2 power 22 but still real).The cumulative chance of say only 25% of the chromosomes being shared say 1-6 out of 22 while still small is not negligible.

    I am pretty sure that the chanced of having exactly 50% the same out of 44 chromosomes is 44!/22!/22! all divided by 2 to the power of 22. I might be wrong – still thinking on it but I think that is the theory ie n!/r!/(n-r)! by the chance of r which in this case is o.5.

  10. Boewar;

    They are all good points, but i think if Hillary was president there would have been more serious conflict in Syria… or somewhere.

    Thing is, everyone knows trump is an idiot, he is going to do idiot things, then in a few years he will get replaced and it will all get undone.

    Hillary is so establishment, she could never be undone.

  11. Clinton would not have done any of the stuff in BW’s list. Most arguments that A is as bad as B are bullshit.

  14. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/16/investigating-a-catholic-school-body-is-no-dark-conspiracy

    It’s a credibility test that Catholic Education Melbourne has regularly failed as it defends an indefensible – a special funding deal at the expense of other public and independent schools. The scripture says God does not show favouritism, but that rule clearly doesn’t apply to schools funding.
    :::
    This weekend, Catholic Education Melbourne’s lobbyist and executive director, Stephen Elder, was at it again. The former Liberal MP claims he is facing a jail threat under a formal investigation into whether his group should continue to enjoy charitable status after it paid for robocalls during the Batman byelection. This is based on a letter from the Australian Charities and Not-For-Profits Commission he received a month ago but waited to wheel out to orchestrate a “controversy” timed to coincide with the PM’s talks with Catholic leaders. But seriously, why on earth should Catholic Education Melbourne enjoy charitable status if it is spending money on robocalls in byelections and running political campaigns?
    :::
    If it’s good enough for GetUp! to open its books and submit to more scrutiny, why not Catholic Education Melbourne?
    ::::
    It’s all reminiscent of the so-called conservatives who argued Australia’s debt and deficit was out of control but families on $150,00 a year should also get welfare during the Rudd-Gillard years. Proper conservatives like Johns quite correctly want to know whether taxpayers are granting charitable status to organisations running political campaigns. It’s entirely regrettable that Bill Shorten has chosen to enter into an unholy alliance with this mob to win votes at the next election.

  16. frednk @ #335 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:02 pm


    Diogenes says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 5:18 pm
    ..
    50% of your DNA with each sibling.

    Isn’t it a normal distribution with a mean of 50%?

    Fred

    It is a binomial distribution because there are only two choices for each chromosome pair. (that is not unlike a normal distribution of course, specially when over 23 pairs.

  17. ‘bug1 says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:45 pm
    Boewar;
    They are all good points, but i think if Hillary was president there would have been more serious conflict in Syria… or somewhere.’
    You are guessing. My points are fact.
    If you were to extend your guessing you would have to take into very serious consideration the fact that Trump has systematically ridded himself of his moderates and replaced them people like Bolton, of whom it is said that he never saw a war he did not like.
    Additionally, Clinton would have maintained the more-or-less traditional influence balance between State and Defence. Trump has gutted State. Absolutely gutted it. As a small straw in the wind, Trump has yet to post an Ambassador to Australia.

  19. Pegasus @ #337 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/australia-to-deport-tamil-asylum-seeker-and-separate-him-from-baby-daughter

    A 30-year-old Tamil asylum seeker faces permanent separation from his wife, and 10-month-old Australian-born daughter, after being issued with a deportation notice more than six years after arriving in Australia.
    :::
    Australia routinely separates families within its immigration regime. At least half a dozen fathers on Nauru have never met their children, after their pregnant partners were taken to Australia to give birth. Husbands and wives, as well as siblings and parents, are separated by Australia’s offshore processing system.

    Family unity is a fundamental principle of international and Australian domestic law. Australia is a party to the convention on the rights of the child, which states that children have a right to know and be cared for by their parents, and should grow up in a family environment wherever possible. It is also a party to the international covenant on civil and political rights, which says the family “is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the state”.

    All the outrage about Trump and family separations. It’s happening here.

    Liberal and Labor people couldn’t care less.

  20. Migration to Australia has declined due to the country being a less attractive destination in recent times. Canada and NZ are favoured. This migration crap from Turnbull is just an election stunt, based on what was happening anyway. It won’t stop the cheap labour influx, though, so non-professional jobs will still be taken.

  21. Boerwar says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:40 pm
    b1
    ‘Im not pro trump, but i see Hillary as being very hawkish, probably more authoritarian that Trump, and certainly more capable of asserting her authority over the world.
    Which is more dangerous, an incompetent fool or a competent fool ?’

    1. Trump sucks up to international thugs.
    2. Trump is weakening Western Alliance systems thereby enabling international thugs: Duterte, Kim, Xi and Putin.
    3. Trump has triggered what is heading towards the mother of all trade wars.
    4. Trump has systematically gutted environmental protections in the US.
    5. Trump has sytematically gutted national and international action on global warming.
    6. Trump is systematically the international rule of law. In particular he is gutting the WTO and the United Nations.
    7. Trump has pulled out of: the Paris Accords, the Iran Agreement, NAFTA, and the TPP. He is busy undermining the G7 and NATO.
    8. Trump systematically undermines his democratic allies. The count is over 30 democracies to date.
    In short, ALL the international arrangements upon which Australia has depended for both its prosperity and its security are being destroyed by Trump, as is our climate.

    The notion that Clinton would have generated anywhere near any of this level of massive, systemic and global destruction is risible.

    Good summary BW. I really don’t know how anyone can make excuses for the catastrophe that is Trump.

  22. Simon² Katich® says:

    Poroti, crowdfunding?

    I like your thinking 🙂 The novelty value alone will attract many clicks.

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:54 pm
    Pegasus @ #337 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/australia-to-deport-tamil-asylum-seeker-and-separate-him-from-baby-daughter

    A 30-year-old Tamil asylum seeker faces permanent separation from his wife, and 10-month-old Australian-born daughter, after being issued with a deportation notice more than six years after arriving in Australia.
    :::
    Australia routinely separates families within its immigration regime. At least half a dozen fathers on Nauru have never met their children, after their pregnant partners were taken to Australia to give birth. Husbands and wives, as well as siblings and parents, are separated by Australia’s offshore processing system.

    Family unity is a fundamental principle of international and Australian domestic law. Australia is a party to the convention on the rights of the child, which states that children have a right to know and be cared for by their parents, and should grow up in a family environment wherever possible. It is also a party to the international covenant on civil and political rights, which says the family “is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the state”.

    All the outrage about Trump and family separations. It’s happening here.

    Liberal and Labor people couldn’t care less.

    Once again, an insulting ignorant comment from you Rex.

  24. Player One,

    I don’t disagree with much of the legitimate criticism of Trump – but to claim he is a Putin plant is ridiculous.

  25. “You are guessing.
    …
    Additionally, Clinton would have maintained the more-or-less traditional influence balance between State and Defence.” – Boerwar

  27. Fin Review: The key Australian short-term interest rate benchmark – the three month bank bill swap rate, or BBSW – has climbed by about 40 basis points since the beginning of the year.

    This spike in the key benchmark interest rate has huge implications for bank funding costs. According to analysts, the increase in overall bank funding costs represents about two-thirds of the rise in the BBSW.

    That’s because about 20 per cent of banks’ funding comes from short-term borrowing in wholesale markets, and around 12 per cent from long-term bond issues (which are switched back into short-term BBSW).

    In addition, a further 30 per cent of banks funding comes from large wholesale deposits, where the interest rate is tied to the BBSW.

    As a result, a 40 basis point increase in the BBSW points to a punishing 25 basis point increase in funding costs for the big four banks. And this is an unwelcome impost that they’d very much like to claw back through higher home loan rates.

    The huge dilemma the big banks face is whether they dare make such a brazen move at a time when the Hayne royal commission has exposed appalling behaviour by the big four, particularly in consumer lending and financial advice.

    https://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/how-long-before-the-big-banks-join-in-the-rate-hike-party-20180716-h12qwp

  28. ‘bug1 says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    “You are guessing.
    …
    Additionally, Clinton would have maintained the more-or-less traditional influence balance between State and Defence.” – Boerwar’

    Uh… Clinton WAS State.

  30. Perhaps the attitude demonstrated here is why Clinton had so much trouble, she was expected to win because she wasnt as bad as trump. Obama won because he was expected to make things better.


  31. The says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    frednk @ #335 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    Diogenes says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 5:18 pm
    ..
    50% of your DNA with each sibling.

    Isn’t it a normal distribution with a mean of 50%?

    Fred

    It is a binomial distribution because there are only two choices for each chromosome pair. (that is not unlike a normal distribution of course, specially when over 23 pairs.

    Agree.

  32. Darn @ #372 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 6:54 pm
    Pegasus @ #337 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/australia-to-deport-tamil-asylum-seeker-and-separate-him-from-baby-daughter

    A 30-year-old Tamil asylum seeker faces permanent separation from his wife, and 10-month-old Australian-born daughter, after being issued with a deportation notice more than six years after arriving in Australia.
    :::
    Australia routinely separates families within its immigration regime. At least half a dozen fathers on Nauru have never met their children, after their pregnant partners were taken to Australia to give birth. Husbands and wives, as well as siblings and parents, are separated by Australia’s offshore processing system.

    Family unity is a fundamental principle of international and Australian domestic law. Australia is a party to the convention on the rights of the child, which states that children have a right to know and be cared for by their parents, and should grow up in a family environment wherever possible. It is also a party to the international covenant on civil and political rights, which says the family “is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the state”.

    All the outrage about Trump and family separations. It’s happening here.

    Liberal and Labor people couldn’t care less.

    Once again, an insulting ignorant comment from you Rex.

    The guilt of ‘walking past’ must be immense.

  33. I can’t believe any of these US & UK commentators can be bothered trying to pre-empt the outcome of the meeting between pimp Putin and puppet Trump.

    All Trump wants is a TrumpTower in Moss-cow.’

    Putin’s laughing all the way to the bank.

  36. Rex,

    The Tamil Tigers are the Sri Lankan equivalent of the Khmer Rouge. They were Marxist Nihilists committed to total war and Year Zero type ideology. They invented modern suicide bombing against civilian crowd targets, used child soldiers and civilian human shield tactics. We don’t need those types in our country.

  38. Clinton won the vote and lost the election. It’s interesting the Russian bot activity is ramping up for the mid terms ( referring to doctors comment on the drum, not increased anti Clinton posting on poll bludger).

  39. I was out with the camera very early this morning. Minus seven.

    Diamond-strewn grass;
    frost-pocked soil;
    frost-rimed dam;
    frost-puffed birds.
    #weatheronPB

  41. PwC issue a Report on “Phoenixing”, the successor to “Bottom of the Harbor”,
    and the former NAB employee buys in!!

    So have PwC given such advice to any clients of their accounting practice in regards “Phoenixing” and the tax benefits including into future years when a Group Company is wound up with Inter Company Loans and Inter Company current assets written off?

    The whole area of Directors valuing assets at the lower of cost or realisable value and the impact on tax liabilities needs Review

    This includes Qantas, Murdoch and a raft of others who have and are enjoying tax holidays because of Director write down of asset values – before we get to Pty Ltd Companies

    And this is the constituency calling for tax relief so they can survive these hard times where interest rates are the lowest they have ever been and wages growth remains flat

    And they have a compliant government supporting the most effective form of regulation is self regulation and trickle down economics

    Cue Rex and Wayne if you want to join the political debate because I have been putting these matters – and others – on here since commencing to contribute and guess what?

    It now becomes an issue because of PwC raise it in a Paper – just maybe prompted by someone!!

    And the inconsistency of bank lending which has been a feature of banking practice since deregulation waxing and waning between “grow the book regardless” and lending with gay abandon then stopping lending when they navel gaze at the provisioning for bad and doubtful debt instead of having a consistent and sustainable assessment process giving approval on merit and equally declining where merit is absent is also now receiving attention – again consistent with my contributions on here and elsewhere in the community

    Our banks – all of them – remain abysmally administered and this is the result

  42. frednk

    It’s interesting the Russian bot activity is ramping up for the mid term

    Democrats getting their excuses in early ?

  43. Hillary won California by 30 points, that helped her top the popular vote total, but California was always going to be a solid Hillary blue state. Where she did badly was in the Mid West, albeit I’m sure too that Russian interference played a part too in handing Trump Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

  45. Player One

    Yes, ridiculous. The article itself is titled as a Theory. It is not proven. As for the second article which just shows people who know people – that proves nothing either.

    If someone produces evidence that Putin planned to get Trump elected, there has been direct collusion and Trump is directly working for Putin, I’m happy to accept the evidence – but I need the evidence. So far there is no evidence.

    I reckon if someone wanted to do the same for Australian Politicians and Chinese influence you could create some very intricate diagrams and allegations of influence for all sides of politics as well.

  49. A question for Evan and William,

    Reachtel have obviously been in the field, but no poll results have been announced.

    Is this unusual? Could it be that the Reachtel poll was for a group who want to know the answers but will not make the results public? any unusual question on the poll?

    Thanks in advance!

  50. Compact Crank @ #394 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Player One

    Yes, ridiculous. The article itself is titled as a Theory. It is not proven. As for the second article which just shows people who know people – that proves nothing either.

    If someone produces evidence that Putin planned to get Trump elected, there has been direct collusion and Trump is directly working for Putin, I’m happy to accept the evidence – but I need the evidence. So far there is no evidence.

    I reckon if someone wanted to do the same for Australian Politicians and Chinese influence you could create some very intricate diagrams and allegations of influence for all sides of politics as well.

    Shanghai Sam got his bills paid just because he’s a nice bloke.

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