Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Matt @ #497 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 1:22 am

    Re: Longman and the fake-medal LNP candidate. I wouldn’t assume that the seat’s in the bag just yet. For it to hurt the LNP, the media spivs would have to carry it – and the brain-dead LNP zombies would have to give a farq about it. Neither is remotely assured – the Right’s voters are rusted-on lemmings, and the media are in the Liberals’ pockets.

    It’s on the front page of the Curious Snail. Even a Murdoch rag can’t ignore a story like that. Apparently the false claim was on the Queensland Parliament website while he was a State MP, so it links back nicely to the much “loved” Newman Misgovernment.

  2. Essential – 51/49: more evidence of a genuine tightening of the polls this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/17/voters-back-energy-inquiry-as-labor-lead-slips-slightly-guardian-essential-poll

    While ESJ likes to kick sand in our faces with some stupid comparison with 2004 (because … Mark Latham and genuine Labor embarrassment), the real issue is whether we are looking at a 2001 election redux.

    Come on Brian! Call it now! You can claw back the 2PP in a campaign once you Malsplain everything. You know you want to. #electionnow!

  3. Maria Butina arrested for spying for the Russians in the US. Shes the one with links to the NRA and the Kremlin.

  5. Fulvio Sammut @ #492 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:11 pm

    After the ALP Urban debacle in WA, over which the coalition waxed sanctimoniously with so much faux outrage, you’d think they’d have enough smarts to check out their own candidates!

    I’m very glad a black swan has turned up in this byelection and that it may benefit Labor.

    The Urban affair was considerably worse than just lying about receiving one medal, unfortunately. Urban constructed a whole pile of lies about his past and had got away with it for years.

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