BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)

The addition of Newspoll’s state breakdowns to the BludgerTrack results in a net gain of two for the Coalition on the national seat projection.

There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.

As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)”

  1. “Tonight’s Reachtel poll:
    ALP 54
    Coalition 46”

    Fascinating Evan.

    Any more details? Primaries?

    How about new Reachtel seat polling for Longman and/or Braddon?

  2. That Reachtel poll, I took part in it………..yes, true story, on Wednesday night. One of those automated phone poll things, didn’t take too long, hardly a great inconvenience.
    Interesting they surveyed someone who lives in the electorate of Berowra, hardly a hotbed of Labor radicals……..very safe Liberal.
    It’s a Sky News poll too, no doubt announced tonight through gritted teeth.

  3. Andrew Earlwood – sorry mate, haven’t got any primaries.
    Haven’t seen any new polling in Braddon and or Longman either.

    You could extrapolate from 54-46 2PP that Labor’s probably leading on primary votes, and of course getting 100% of green preferences.

    My thoughts about July 28? Sharkie will win Mayo in a canter, Labor will retain Longman narrowly, Braddon will be a squeaker either way

  4. In regards the protests and the current President of the USA, of those I associate with which covers a wide social demographic, there is absolutely no respect for the current President of the USA

    No one passes complimentary comment and to the contrary

    The danger of Trump is that he attracts an “us versus them” demographic who, ironically given Trump’s wealth and privilege, target what they see as wealth and privilege

    Those who sit behind religion with their guns

    It really comes down to how sick America is

    If elsewhere Trump is mocked and protested against and that reflects community – as appears the case by wide numbers – then that is a positive for those communities at least

    The rest of the world is a mighty powerful enemy – as Trump will find out

    Then we have the Middle East, where the rest of the World really needs to send a message to the current government in Israel

    Not all Jews support that government and its actions

  5. Can’t find any trace of a new ReachTEL poll on twitter or anywhere else online. How did you get that TPP figure Evan, off TV or an early front page?

  6. Toby Esterhase – oh no, not that one again!!! Its been the cause of a few false alarms, due to it not having a proper date below the article headline.

  7. Boerwar @ #493 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 8:56 pm

    Does marching against the neo-Nazis in a sort of communal cortege of contempt make the Neo-Nazis feel better or worse?

    Hang on, we’re worrying about the feelings of literal Neo-Nazis now? As in, people who openly promote racism and advocate genocide and are proud of it?

    The only thing a Neo-Nazi needs is a swift fist to the face. Far, far more humane than having to send millions of soldiers with guns to shoot them all again. We certainly don’t worry about how they feel. 🙂

  8. The next person that talks about needing to sympathise with Trump’s supporters, I’ll scream. I get, even if I think it was nuts, the situation that puts someone in the position of voting for him. But now? Not a chance.

    Protesting isn’t about Trump’s supporters, it’s about making sure that those who don’t like his policies, those who chose to not bother voting in 2016, to get out there and get involved. Trump’s supporters aren’t necessary to win in 2018 or 2020.

    Note I keep saying ‘supporters’ not ‘voters’, they’re different.

  9. Evan @ #552 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 10:13 pm

    That Reachtel poll, I took part in it………..yes, true story, on Wednesday night. One of those automated phone poll things, didn’t take too long, hardly a great inconvenience.
    Interesting they surveyed someone who lives in the electorate of Berowra, hardly a hotbed of Labor radicals……..very safe Liberal.
    It’s a Sky News poll too, no doubt announced tonight through gritted teeth.

    So, how do we all explain the lived experience here?

  10. “The only thing a Neo-Nazi needs is a swift fist to the face.”

    No, no,no……..
    Hard kick to the gonads to follow up as well. You have to think in terms of expunging their genetics from the species.

  11. j341983 @ #561 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 10:34 pm

    The next person that talks about needing to sympathise with Trump’s supporters, I’ll scream. I get, even if I think it was nuts, the situation that puts someone in the position of voting for him. But now? Not a chance.

    Protesting isn’t about Trump’s supporters, it’s about making sure that those who don’t like his policies, those who chose to not bother voting in 2016, to get out there and get involved. Trump’s supporters aren’t necessary to win in 2018 or 2020.

    Note I keep saying ‘supporters’ not ‘voters’, they’re different.

    J

    As usual I will play “devil’s advocate” but from the point of view of those who voted for Trump he has actually done nothing wrong and indeed has shown he is trying to keep his commitments. He is still trying to build his wall, he promised tax cuts (stupid but he promised them), he HAS tired to talk to Russia which he said he would do,he has clamped down on immigration, again as promised. Even talking tough to NATO and the EU is exactly what he promised he would do, Ditto tariffs on China.

    Now most of them are pretty foolish ideas but they ARE the things on which he was elected. My prediction is that unless the Democrats pull some sort of charismatic person out of the bag, Trump will win again in 2020.

    It seems to me the USA is a very divided polity. I will eventually give credence to Michael Moore. Unlike most he seems to have his finger on the electoral mood.

    We will see after November when impeachment might be possible. I doubt it however because the Democrats will have the brains to realise that if they impeach Trump they get Pence and there is no point trying to win aganist him.

  12. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/13/albanese-sends-another-signal-hes-ready-and-willing-for-the-top-job?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Paula Matthewson in this article said “According to reports, the NSW right had begun to consider Albanese as an alternative to Shorten only six months after the last federal election. But then Turnbull self-imploded on tax reform and Shorten lived to fight another day.”

    Regarding Trump his chances of being re-elected in 2020 depends on how will be the Democratic nominee. For example; if Bernie Sanders had won the Democratic nomination in 2016, I believe he would have easily defeated Donald Trump. This is because those who decided not to turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton would have turned out to vote for Bernie Sanders.

    Plus there is the electoral college system were a candidate can lose the popular vote (like Trump did in 2016) and still win a majority of the electoral college.

  13. Sanders would have been killed by Trump, people really do forget how limited his coalition was and how useless he was on immigration and guns, what he MIGHT have gained from whites without a college degree (the myth of 2016 was that this was about income and class… Trump’s primary voters were richer than average and in the general they were as wealthy as those who voted for Romney) he loses from AA and Latino turnout (a trend that already hurt Clinton badly in the states that cost her the election (but conversely meant she held on to NV and CO) . The person I think had the best shot was Biden.

    BUT the biggest mistake is always to assume that the next election will like the one gone.

  14. 7.30 tonight
    For those poor souls that think the ABC is in any way relevant ..
    Interviewing Sebastian Gorker… mad neo nazi , supposed PHD .. Trump adviser now sacked from WH.. ex lecturer at West Point.. total right wing fraud. .. really
    ABC … Sell it now .. give it away

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