Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. Sprocket @6:40PM: well, it does look like a fun time was had by all.

    But seriously, they all look like they’d rather be anywhere else, with anyone else.

  2. DTT@5:53pm
    I actually don’t mind bloggers like ESJ, Pegasus, Campact Crank. We know what opposition is thinking, prepare for it and argue about it without abusing them. After all this is not Sussex St run ALP blog but a blog by William Bowe.
    Rex is like a Tiger with Cow’s face. By looking at it we thing it is a harmless creature. There are some powerful people in this country who come under that category.

  3. Yes he was a director of Obeid’s Australian Water Holdings but was not in parliament at the time. ICAC made no findings against him but of more interest was the Liberal bagman Nick Di Girolamo who appeared to be more involved but was also cleared by ICAC. It was he who gave Barry O’Farrell the bottle of Grange (and kept the receipt)

  4. Oakeshott Country @ #10949 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    Yes he was a director of Obeid’s Australian Water Holdings but was not in parliament at the time. ICAC made no findings against him but of more interest was the Liberal bagman Nick Di Girolamo who appeared to be more involved but was also cleared by ICAC. It was he who gave Barry O’Farrell the bottle of Grange (and kept the receipt)

    OC. I was down in the Old Man’s cellar the other day – much like his office it was organised on archaeologic principles: find a likely site and dig to the right level. I did come across a bottle of Grange of the appropriate vintage – but it was corked. We will use it to send his ashes down Lovers Jump Creek. For some reason the Council frowned on the idea of giving him a Viking funeral: dispatching him down the Lane Cove River in a flaming bathtub dialyser. Better than Barry.

  5. I think AWH is the most fascinating part of the saga. In brief
    It was a non-profit organisation charged with being the contracting agent for the extension of sewage in western Sydney. The first problem was that the expenses they could charge against the government were not defined and when Di Girolamo was invited to be CE by a mate, who had paid the government $10 (only) for the company, the directors including Sidondinos partied like it was 1999

    But this was small bickies compared to the possibility of getting the NSW Labor government to hand over the Sydney Water Board to a $2 shelf company. Eddie Obeid Sr was made director while Eddie Obeid Jr was paid $350K to get the morning coffees. Eddie Sr started the lobbying. The public service quite rightly rejected the proposal but Kelly and Tripodi got hold of the cabinet minute and crossed out the ‘nt in don’t

  6. Thanks RHW I really appreciate that. I think a Viking funeral on Lane Cove River would have been apt for him.
    I remember Charlie Teo was his intern and told me that they had dined and wined very well for a term function. Charlie asked about his publication history and “smiling death” said “about 120”

  7. Mark Di Stefano

    ‏Verified account @MarkDiStef
    4m4 minutes ago

    Safe to say The Sun comments have shaken diplomats. Former top Australian diplomat here in London tells me: “His visit to Europe has become the theatre of the grotesque. For Trump it is all about him and how he feels about himself. Loyalty is a one way street.”

    Mark Di Stefano

    ‏Verified account @MarkDiStef
    2m2 minutes ago

    (Cont.): “He likes Boris because he thinks Boris likes him, and because Boris flatters him. If Boris criticised him on any issue he would soon be on his enemies list.”

  8. Zoidlord

    The only ‘problem’ is that the Pomgolians have been shown the reality of their ‘special relationship’ . Nothing has changed despite the arrival of Trumplestiltskin. So sad. A few ‘toons from the days of Shrub and Blah. Add ‘h’ to the start of the address.

    ttp://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2005/06/08/bell512.jpg
    .
    ttp://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/steve_bell/2007/05/18/steve1.jpg
    .
    ttp://www.brandonhamber.com/images/iraq_minime.gif
    .

  9. Ven @ #2101 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    DTT@5:53pm
    I actually don’t mind bloggers like ESJ, Pegasus, Campact Crank. We know what opposition is thinking, prepare for it and argue about it without abusing them. After all this is not Sussex St run ALP blog but a blog by William Bowe.
    Rex is like a Tiger with Cow’s face. By looking at it we thing it is a harmless creature. There are some powerful people in this country who come under that category.

    Ven

    Once again I fully agree.
    I have no problem with hearing the opinions of others even when I disagree. Peg pushes Green viewpoints as do many others. That is fine. I agree with lots of it and some less so.

    ESJ is interesting – it is a view point- conservative but by no means part of any LNP group think. i find his/her views refreshing – I almost never agree but at least they are different.

    CC is actually also a valuable poster. Somewhat thoughtful he present the mainstream LNP view point and that is a good thing. Those who attack him are showing their lack of respect for the democratic process and the importance of free and frank exchange of views.

    Rex on the pother hand only comes here to sow discord. He only has a limited range of content almost all designed to set Labor people fighting Greens and/or promoting internal factional fights.

    Now Wayne on the other hand is our inner soul laughing at ourselves. I think Wayne is OUR Rex ie deliberately trying to make the few liberals look sily. He is amusing.

  10. Apologies if others have already referred to this. NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire admits to seeking a “dividend” (worth $720000), resigning from the Liberals, yet staying in parliament under the Obeid-Thomsen principle!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/mp-quits-nsw-liberals-after-phone-taps-played-to-icac/9991522

    I used to look down my nose at places like Brazil, where corrupt politicians would remain in parliament. I see now we are no better.

  11. Socrates

    For me we officially became a Banana Republic when Howard when he bailed out his brother’s company re missing workers super payments and then saying it was a ‘one off’ special situation. Banana status confirmed later with this. A tanker of ethanol was on the way to Australia from, how appropriate, Brazil . This was when ethanol blends were starting. Well golly gee what luck for the Australian Ethanol 800lb gorilla and MAJOR Coalition donor Manildra that the cheaper Brazilian ethanol became more expensive than the Manildra product due to changes in tarrifs made whilst the ship was on the high seas. The ship had to turn around.

  12. Socrates @ #2114 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    Apologies if others have already referred to this. NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire admits to seeking a “dividend” (worth $720000), resigning from the Liberals, yet staying in parliament under the Obeid-Thomsen principle!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/mp-quits-nsw-liberals-after-phone-taps-played-to-icac/9991522

    I used to look down my nose at places like Brazil, where corrupt politicians would remain in parliament. I see now we are no better.

    Yet again, Socrates, no mention of the Liberal Party MPs guilty of the same, or worse. Other than today’s latest.

  13. Speaking of practices bordering on corrupt, if and when Labor come to power federally, they really need to put a broom through the senior ranks of the politically-tainted, senior ranks of the Public Service. Starting with the new Secretary of the Treasury.

  14. I thought you’d like the “value” here BW. I’m sure that’s what caught Mal’s interest too.

    Maybe it’s an election winner ?

  15. My fave Hinze memory was of his straight face as he explained how totally coincidental the tar sealing of some road in the middle of nowhere stopped just 100 meters past the turn off to his property.

  16. I was about to post a second hand story about Mr Hinze from a very reputable and trustworthy source, but I have just checked. There is a grand daughter Hinze.
    So, in a nid nod to William’s standards, I will refrain.

  17. “NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire admits to seeking a “dividend” (worth $720000), resigning from the Liberals, yet staying in parliament under the Obeid-Thomsen principle!”

    No worries, he’ll be hounded from pillar to post, the subject of numerous Telecrap front pages, the photoshoppers will have a field day, supported by turgid 16,000 word op-eds in the Australian, until he leaves Parliament…

    … what’s that? He’s a “Liberal?” Scrub the last paragraph.

  18. ausdao
    In terms of it being an election winner, Mr Di Natale has nailed the UBI to his mast. The difficulty seems to be that the policy barky has a bottomless pit for a hull.
    And in case the UBI does not turn enough heads he has tossed in a People’s Bank and sundry other goodies.

  19. poroti @ #2127 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    My fave Hinze memory was of his straight face as he explained how totally coincidental the tar sealing of some road in the middle of nowhere stopped just 100 meters past the turn off to his property.

    One of my favourite magic road stories was from Thailand back in Thaksin’s days.

    They were building a freeway around Bangkok.

    Everything was basically sorted after a long process with the proposed route published when at the last minute the route was altered significantly in one section.

    Who was the owner of the land adjacent to the new route?

    Thaksin’s wife!!!

  20. BiGD
    The last time I was there the thing seemed to have stopped construction half way to wherever it was going. There did not seem to be a whole lot of navvies in attendance.

  21. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/former-one-nation-media-adviser-sean-black-rape-verdict/9989236

    A former One Nation adviser has been convicted of raping and assaulting a woman more than a decade ago.

    Sean David Black had pleaded not guilty to three counts of assault occasioning bodily harm and one count of rape at the beginning of his week-long trial in the District Court in Brisbane.
    :::::
    Black had previously worked for former Liberal National Party MP Michael Pucci on his 2012 election campaign and was associated with the Labor Party in the 1990s.

    The former real estate agent was also a Labor member of Logan City Council between 2008 and 2012.

  22. And if anyone believes that, by some incredible coincidence, ICAC managed to tap the phone conversations of the one and only corrupt Liberal politician in NSW, then I have an Opera House you may be interested in, going cheap.

    Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of apartment developments have gone up since the Liberals won office. Billions more in tollways, tunnels and infrastructure development have happened as well. Whole inland river systems have been sold off, bought back and dammed up. To even countenance the idea that all of the money ii nobbled is squeaky clean, and that the real crook is, for example, Bill Shorten (who may not have had some minutes signed off ten years ago) is an absurd proposition.

  23. “S777
    Would McGuire have been hammered by Shorten’s dividend imputation franking credits reform?”

    I don’t think he would have got a dividend statement with franking credits, so probably not.

  24. The Vic Liberals are pinning theor hopes on a lornorder election..

    On the basis that lornorder is the main thing Victorians worry about. I suspect the poll finding may be accurate but doubt it will shift votes at the ballot box?

  25. 7.30 tonight
    For those poor souls that think the ABC is in any way relevant ..
    Interviewing Sebastian Gorker… mad neo nazi , supposed PHD .. Trump adviser now sacked from WH.. ex lecturer at West Point.. total right wing fraud. .. really
    ABC … Sell it now .. give it away

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