ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

A new poll suggests the looming state election in Victoria will be just as tight as the last two.

The Age has a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Victoria, which credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After exclusion of the 3.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 36.7%, Coalition 40.8%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.7%. The two-party result, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, is about a point more favourable to Labor than one based on 2014 preference flows would have been. Also featured are questions on preferred premier, more trustworthy leader, and better party to relieve Melbourne’s congestion problem (which presumably refers to traffic), relieve cost-of-living pressure and manage Melbourne’s growing population, all of which show absolutely nothing in it. The exception to this picture is best party to handle law and order, on which the Coalition leads 55.8-44.2.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1505. The Age’s online report features agreeably thorough breakdowns of voting intention by gender and age cohort.

Below you will find a poll aggregation chart I have put together, combining four results from Newspoll (from whom we heard nothing in 2016), four from ReachTEL, three from Galaxy, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.8-48.2, from primary votes of Labor 38.1%, Coalition 40.3% and Greens 11.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

48 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. The results for the 35-50 y.o (and the poll overall) look rouge-ish to me unless the ‘young fogies’ gen Y thing has become stronger and beginning to impact. The shooters, fishers and farmer votes for the 18-34 and 35-50 y.o. group just doesn’t look right at all. What do you think William? do we have any part Vic reachtels to compare it to.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-on-a-knife-edge-as-leaders-face-off-in-tight-state-election-20180708-p4zq7p.html

    That said, I think Andrews might be in trouble. The Herald Sun is unashamedly anti- him, and infrastructure in Melbourne is being stretched to the limit – Labor has been making up for the inaction of the Baillieu years, but the works are too little too late for many and people are pissed off. The electorate is pretty bolshie generally at present (stagnant wages, poor employment security, strained infrastructure will do that) and they may lash out. LNP and their media arm at the Hun will go hard over the cancelled East-West link – and retell the lie that $1.8 millions was wasted. In the current environment I think this could cost labor the election.

    Matthew Guy would be a disaster for the state. I don’t don’t know why labor does not play harder and raise all of his dodgy deals when he was planning minister. Most planning ministers take a few terms to become corrupt, but he was doing dodgy deals before he was sworn in as Minister. The Ventnor rezoning-for-donors (and paying out $2 mill in hush money to his partners in crime when the zoning gor reversed) and the rezoning of Fishermans Bend (where many LNP members and donors had just happened to buy up land in the few years prior) should be part of a ICAC/royal commission hearing. The lack of accountability for such things is a worry.

  2. I agree that Guy would be a disaster

    He represents Bulleen, a seat where the Stamoulis family say who the Liberal candidate will be

    Stamoulis ousted a popular MP for a MP of Greek extraction who then held the seat for a number of years

    To parachute Guy to the Lower House from the Upper House, the sitting Bulleen MP was given his marching orders

    There were then allegations of impropriety in the Electoral Office involving the prior MP and a female staff member who remains on staff, these matters reported in the media but then forgotten

    The Stamoulis family of Gold Medal reputation then property development has been a major beneficiary of the planning approvals of Guy as Planning Minister – and you will find photos which did appear in media of the next generation Stamoulis alongside Guy along with others of his property developer gaggle who have also been the beneficiaries of Guy’s decisions

    They and the decisions that have benefited them are not hard to find but Murdoch, the Costello 9 and the 7 Network with their political bias do not report and Fairfax has ceased reporting – instead reporting crime as if Melbourne is different to anywhere else (noting the reputation of the media focussed Victoria Police has been further trashed by the speed camera KPI’s and targets fiasco, also conveniently forgotten by media as was the finding on the leaking of LEAP Reports by the Ombudsman which dates back now but never addressed and now buried by Police and media except reappearing because a Police employee suicided and there is an action against Police over the impact of the LEAP fiasco on the deceased – reported but now buried by media)

    The last thing Victoria needs is a Police State – but they are in bed with Guy for this outcome – then you have his developer gaggle – and his alleged mobster contacts and associations similarly now forgotten by media

    Guy’s heritage from middle Europe remains in his politics despite his now Anglisised abbreviated name – hence his far right agenda and associations with Bastiaan who now controls the Victorian Liberal Party with Sukkar

    Then policy

    Roads and intersection removals and new suburbs 30 kms from the CBD – aka Rowville of prior times and no supporting infrastructure including public transport – remember AFL Park at Waverley with no public transport and jammed roads because the only access was by car

    And Law and Order including comments by Dutton

    Another matter buried by a compliant media is the “side letters” to the East West link which project was taken to the last election as a referendum by the then Liberal government- and which lost

    Then the protest groups, against Eastlink, the desalination plant, Skyrail, the MFB servicing Metropolitan Melbourne and not the CFA and the list goes on and on – just oppose with their Party members carrying placards and the media so reporting

    Including on social issues now with the Injecting trial in Richmond

    Guy and Bastiaan will be a disaster for Victoria

  3. Victoria won’t even be close: Labor will win in a canter.
    It’ll be like Queensland: the campaign will see Labor pull away as voters start to engage with the issues. Unlike us tragics here, nobody pays much attention to state politics until about the last fortnight – maybe even week – of the campaign.
    The Herald-Sun being virulently anti-Labor last time didn’t hurt them a bit. Nor did The Age’s limp-wristed endorsement of the Coalition (just another example of its urge to self-destruction – that and they’re still sore over the dictaphone incident).
    Andrews isn’t wildly popular – he’s no Bracks. But he’s not wildly unpopular – like Brumby was.
    Labor are saving their attacks on Guy for the campaign: they’d be wasted right now. Just wait until a bloke in a lobster suit follows him around to every picfac. Or when Labor announces that they’re going to fix his mess at Fishermans Bend by building Metro 2 – and points out how many well-connected developers made out like bandits when he rezoned it overnight. Then there’s the all but inevitable question about whether he’ll allow a private members’ bill to re-criminalise abortion to be debated.
    As for infrastructure, nobody who cares about it is going to vote for the mob who dropped the ball on it so badly. The last two Victorian elections have been about public transport in particular. In 2010, Baillieu campaigned hard on Brumby’s failure to see until too late that the increasing population was putting it under tremendous strain. In 2014, the Coalition were duly punished for not having done a damned thing about it.

  4. The Vic election is up for grabs. The Coalition needs to focus on 6 issues.
    1)Crime
    2)Vote Rorts
    3)Congestion – 1.3 billion wasted on cancelling the East West Link
    4)Cost of Living – Shutting Hazelwood and putting power prices through the roof
    5)Comrade Andrews -Spending out of control in the public service
    6)Destroying the CFA

  5. The Coalition needs to focus on 6 issues.
    1)Crime – crime rate is down. Racist crime gang bullshit being beaten up – you must be so proud of the company you keep.
    2)Vote Rorts -huh? do the libs really want to make party financing part of a campaign (cue lobster suited guy).
    3)Congestion – 1.3 billion wasted on cancelling the East West Link. rolled gold bullshit. the contractor was effectively awarded two more major roads projects because they rolled most of the 1.3 billion across to those projects.
    4)Cost of Living – Shutting Hazelwood and putting power prices through the roof (bull shit. the private operator closed a plant that was clapped out/obsolete technology when Kennett sold it. Privatisation and the federal LNP being incapable of having an energy policy that reflects the commercial or scientific reality that coal-power is dead is what is driving up power prices. Baillieu’s coal-funded hostility to renewables also stopped investment as is policy uncertainty now (dickhead Guy saying he’ll rip up renewable energy targets – how much is he getting from the fossil fuel lobby?)
    5)Comrade Andrews -Spending out of control in the public service (budget well in surplus and PS spending following trend – health care and education are getting refunded after LNP slashing is the main ‘growth’ – not unpopular
    6)Destroying the CFA – how so? this is such a politicised load of shit. Please explain how the CFA is being destroyed? Mostly this issue is the CFA in what are now essentially metro areas being professionalised and made to work better with the MFB. It is more cost effective and safer to have single and well equipped brigade responsible. Outside of the metro area and fringe little has changed other than the CFA getting better resourcing and paid staff getting higher pay that they did under the libs.

    stop spreading such blatant lies – are you the editor of the Hun?

  6. Here we go.
    1)Crime is an issue. You and your Labor mates can keep denying. I hope you do.
    2)Labor have already admitted they rorted 400k and paid it back with the red shirt campaign. Plus, what is more a disgrace spent around 1 million dollars of taxpayer funds fighting it in court to cover up their despicable act. An absolute disgrace and Labor will pay and lose on this issue.
    3)Melbourne is growing like crazy with over 100,000 people coming in each year and we need every road and rail project built as quickly as possible, and Andrews wasted around 1.3 billion dollars on cancelling the East WestLink which like the NE Link is linking up your freeway systems which every sane person realises you must do. Andrews has blown hundreds of millions of dollars for no reason but to appease the Greens and make his political situation a bit easier. Labor know we need the road and just are playing games.
    4)Shutting Hazelwood has pushed up power prices and made Victoria a net importer of power when it was before a net exporter. Andrews made no attempt to stop the closure and Turnbull and the Feds were the same on the issue. Hazelwood was shut far too quickly, renewables are no-where there yet as a replacement and as a result, power prices up and reliability down.
    5)Public services spending is out of control. If the real estate market and population growth cools significantly, the budget and the economy will be in dire straits, and the surplus will completely disappear.
    6)The great thing about the CFA is its surge capacity. A lot of volunteers may go if Andrews destroys the CFA, (Labor and the unions hate volunteers because they don’t pay union fees and make donations to the Labor Party). This whole fire services is to give that piece of work Marshall, more members, power and money, all at the expense of volunteers. What it means, the UFU can make larger donations to the Labor Pary, Greens and other disgraceful purposes. The issue has already cost Shorten minority government at the 2016 fed election and has not died yet.

  7. Funny this doesn’t surprise me at all…we actually had this conversation at work at drinks last Friday.

    Pretty uniform response…No one likes Daniel Andrews they don’t trust him. They all thought we was way too shifty for their liking. but a positive wais he gets things done…..he also seen as being out of touch having very little idea of the pressures on an ordinary family. Overdevelopment of the suburbs was a hot topic and particularly that developers are being allowed to “throw anything up” which was negatively impacting the suburbs both quality of life and property valuers. I’ve heard this from real estate agents as well…especially now property valuers are falling.

    The Liberals are viewed as a waste of a vote, they had a chance four years ago and spent four years doing nothing while fretting about gay marriage, abortion and imaginary deficits…Victoria can’t afford another four wasted years was a comment one comment “people would you nuts at the traffic lines”was one comment I remember. A few commented that if they had sat around in their asses for 6 months, let along 4 years, they’d been fired, so didn’t the libs thought it was okay to do nothing. People were not worried about the Liberals being too right wing, just that they’d do nothing …Libs need to think outside the Eastern Freeway suburbs.

    In short I think it could either way, but at the moment and the a ALP Green coalition is a real prospect.
    But for those of you living your own thought bubble for the last three and a half years…welcome to planet real.

  8. Fredrk, you talk about honest campaigns. Just go back to the 2016 Fed election, and the disgraceful Mediscare Campaign, handing out cards at railways stations, robo-calls telling absolute lies. Labor always get down in the gutter, if I was the Coalition in response behave like shark shit , and that lies at the bottom of the ocean. Two can play that game.

  9. And to take them in turn:
    1) Crime – name me a law-and-order campaign that actually won a state election.
    2) The ‘red shirt rort’ – old news and, frankly, only rusted-ons like you will get excited about $500K.
    3) The idea that building East-West Link would’ve solved / will solve / is the only solution to congestion for all Melbourne doesn’t pass the laugh test and shows just how out-of-touch the Liberals are. I suspect that Labor’s more than happy for Guy to sacrifice himself on that altar again: not least because actually going through with stopping it (everyone assumed that he’d find a way to wriggle out of that commitment after the 2014 election) shows Andrews in a half-decent light.
    4) Hazelwood. Yawn. Besides, the Commonwealth now owns electricity prices as a political issue.
    5) “Comrade Andrews”. LOL. That’s just red meat for “teh base” (such as it is).
    6) CFA. Whatever advantage it gave the Coalition was frittered away when Guy boasted about the fast one he pulled in the upper house just before Easter.

  10. I was polled by Galaxy about state voting intention three and a half weeks ago, but haven’t seen anything published since. I live in the state electorate of Brunswick, which is marginal Labor vs. Greens.

  11. 1. The mobster lobster should be the first arrested.
    2. What does this actually mean and does anyone care?
    3. It was actually a policy that won Labor the previous election.
    4. Hazelwood was closed by its owners. It was too expensive to maintain.
    5. Comrade Andrews is loved and revered compared to that guy Guy.
    6. Last time I looked, the CFA was still in business.

  12. Would you trust anyone who conceals their real name and origins?

    Guy is abbreviated from what – and where?

    If you look at the voting demographics of Greater Melbourne the Liberal support is exclusively along a narrow corridor to the east – taking in wealthy inner suburbs then to the Family First and Mormon demographic in the outer east – which is where Bastiaan and Sukkar have the power base which has seen them take control of the Liberal Party to the chagrin of the Establishment (hence Cormack)

    The “Red Shirts” were employed in Electoral Offices for 50% of their time and remunerated accordingly with 50% of their time on Campaign matters and remunerated by the ALP accordingly

    And which Electoral Office does not also promote its MP and work for re-election?

    Anyway on referral the Ombudsman found such arrangements could be open to abuse

    The ALP presenting that was not the case and the lines were clearly defined and observed so the findings of the Ombudsman were incorrect – which is their right

    The matter resolved with the ALP paying 100% of the wages bill regardless of 50% of the wage covering Electoral Office duties

    The finding was the possibility of a “rort”, not that there was a “rort”

    Look at the Ombudsman finding

    Questions can also be asked of Liberal Party staff deployments including Local Council candidates running campaigns from Liberal Electoral Offices which is a fact

  13. GG

    From ReachTEL poll:

    Mr Andrews’ standing as ‘better premier’ has been whittled down to a sliver, with 50.6 per cent of respondents preferring the Labor leader to 49.4 who said they believed Mr Guy would do better job.

    With both sides looking likely to target their opponents’ leader in the coming campaign, Mr Guy just edged out the Premier on the question of trustworthiness, with 50.1 per cent saying the Opposition Leader was the more trustworthy of the two to 49.9 per cent for Mr Andrews.

  14. Reachtel better premier ratings would be very opposition friendly due to forced choice. Especially in a state poll. All issues questions would also favor opposition because there is no not sure / uncommitted option. In reality I doubt half the state knows who Guy is.

    This poll doesn’t have anything important and it seems one nation is a non story.

    Demographically some age groups seem a bit off too.

  15. Pegasus @ #17 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 6:47 pm

    GG

    From ReachTEL poll:

    Mr Andrews’ standing as ‘better premier’ has been whittled down to a sliver, with 50.6 per cent of respondents preferring the Labor leader to 49.4 who said they believed Mr Guy would do better job.

    With both sides looking likely to target their opponents’ leader in the coming campaign, Mr Guy just edged out the Premier on the question of trustworthiness, with 50.1 per cent saying the Opposition Leader was the more trustworthy of the two to 49.9 per cent for Mr Andrews.

    Who believes Reachtel?

    And for Matt Guy.


  16. michael says:
    Monday, July 9, 2018 at 2:45 pm

    Fredrk, you talk about honest campaigns. Just go back to the 2016 Fed election, and the disgraceful Mediscare Campaign, handing out cards at railways stations, robo-calls telling absolute lies. Labor always get down in the gutter, if I was the Coalition in response behave like shark shit , and that lies at the bottom of the ocean. Two can play that game.

    My contempt has nothing to do with campaign honesty; its’ deliberately trying to create social division that I find contemptible.

  17. Michael is our Victorian version of Wayne I think.

    Labor will be keeping their powder dry right now and will wait until the actual campaign to destroy the Liberals. With the Liberals attacking early, they are making themselves extremely vulnerable later in the year, when they may not have any fresh content at all to talk about.

  18. Observer @ #16 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    Questions can also be asked of Liberal Party staff deployments including Local Council candidates running campaigns from Liberal Electoral Offices which is a fact

    This is absolutely true here in Ballarat with the Lib candidate for Wendouree Amy Johnson not even resigning from the council before she started campaigning. So dodgy!

    My worry is that given a) the current Labor member is retiring, and b) Amy has amassed a significant following on social media with her populist views, that this might be enough for her to win the seat despite the ~6% margin and her questionable council behaviour.

  19. Age editorial:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/respectful-campaign-will-be-rewarded-20180709-p4zqg7.html

    There is scant comfort for Victoria’s ALP government or the Liberal-led Coalition opposition in The Age’s latest polling. Given the margin of error in such snapshots of public sentiment, the two are even, after taking preferences into account, with just over four months to run before a ballot that could dump a first-term Victorian government for an unprecedented third successive election.

    This creates an opportunity and a risk for both contenders. The opportunity is to focus on evidence-based policy ideas to deal with a number of pressing problems facing Melbourne and regional Victoria, and to present them in a sober, positive and respectful manner. The risk is that the tightness of the battle spurs negativity, misrepresentation and fearmongering. Should either side take the latter route, it could well lead to defeat, for voters have historically become weary of the nastiness and bullying to which our lawmakers can stoop.
    ::::
    So, at a time of great need for sensible policy formulation, Victoria is poised for a tight and potentially bitter election contest. We urge our prospective lawmakers to make it an A-grade public-interest debate, in which we can all consider real options for managing Victoria’s future, and vote accordingly. Please, candidates, treat each other and the community with respect, and you will be rewarded at the ballot box.

  20. I still can’t get over the fact that The Age endorsed Napthine in 2014: emblematic of how badly a once great paper has completely lost its way.

  21. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-greens-labor-and-liberals-say-ahead-of-likely-state-cliffhanger-20180710-p4zqmy.html

    Labor has rushed to distance itself from the Victorian Greens ahead of the state election, insisting it will “absolutely” not cut a deal with the minor party.
    ::
    Mr Merlino said the question of a Labor/Greens alliance was hypothetical, but the party had not changed the line it took to the last election that no deal would be done.

  22. Considering the Age has been a Toad for the Liberal party with their continual nonsense bit rich them now asking for “respect”. What if the paper starts by showing little respect to the Sudanes community.

  23. frednk @ #30 Tuesday, July 10th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    Considering the Age has been a Toad for the Liberal party with their continual nonsense bit rich them now asking for “respect”. What if the paper starts by showing little respect to the Sudanes community.

    The Age urged a vote for Napthine in 2014. Tells you all you need to know about the intellect of fish and chip wrappings.

  24. GG,
    The Age has had it in for Victorian Labor ever since Farrah Tomazin was silly enough to leave her dictaphone lying around at a state conference.
    That and it doesn’t know its arse from its ankle nowadays.

  25. Thanks, Pegasus, for posting the link to my article.

    Yes, unfortunately, Victoria and WA are the final two states that STILL use group ticket voting for their upper house elections. GTV was abolished for the Senate in early 2016 and for SA in late 2017.

    If nothing passes both chambers of the Vic Parliament by Sept 20, GTV will again be used at the coming state election.

  26. “Our great coalition will win the next state election by a landslide and ALP will only have 20 seats”

    …and the Premier will be that Guy who sits down to lobsters with mobsters.

  27. Mr Guy just edged out the Premier on the question of trustworthiness, with 50.1 per cent saying the Opposition Leader was the more trustworthy of the two to 49.9 per cent for Mr Andrews.

    That would be a statistically significant lead if Reachtel has surveyed about a million Victorian voters.

  28. Steve777

    Our great coalition will win the next state election by a landslide and Matthew Guy will be the best premier this state as had and our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo……..

  29. Wayne

    I have reasons why my interest in politics has increased to a level where I put presentations supported by data and similar opinion starting with Stiglitz whose views I respect

    The principal reason is that my wife and I between us have children and now grandchildren and we seek to leave a legacy other than monetary

    My resolve is increased by viewing your contributions – and recognising the totally inept opinions you promote

    Simply, if you are indicative of those who vote Liberal I will not be voting Liberal

    I like to pride myself on accessing relative data and being educated by informed opinion

    You contribute neither

    And you vote, which concerns me greatly

  30. Campaigning will make a difference;

    Libs took legal action against their biggest donor, and have to pay legal costs, and probably made some enemies over it, and i dont know that traditional Lib supporters will go the extra mile to help them out at this election.

    There is plenty of dirt available to be thrown at Guy, someone will throw it, no point Labor getting their hands dirty yet, lots of good work still can be done.

    The Vic Treasury is looking pretty under control, nothing to scare people into voting for the economic conservatives.

    I dont think EW link (or Desal) will hurt Labor this time, they have too much other good stuff to talk about on infrastructure.

    Labor has a very good media unit in Vic (e.g. look at videos about level crossings), and i expect they will run a strong on the ground campaign, assuming they sort out their “Volunteers”.

    There are significant progressive issues being addressed such as assisted dying, medical marijuana, Treaty, so Labor will probably hold up well against Greens and minor parties to the left.

    On the other hand, Vic is all about a handful of seats, so a few local issues and target campaign could hurt.

  31. Libs sprung again!

    Busted: The Liberal Party pinches this picture that was used in the UK Evening Standard in Feb 2012. Using fear & race as a way to scare people into voting for you is a grubby tactic that aims to divide Victorians. It’s disgusting.

    Credit to @matt_matt76 for finding the pic

  32. We will choose who comes to this Country

    So, Mr Guy and Mr and Mrs Bastiaan, go back to where you came from

    We do not want your far right religious and racist types in Australia

    GG with assistance has found you out for exactly who and what you are and you are not welcome in Australia

  33. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/14/note-to-nationals-no-the-accc-didnt-say-build-more-coal-plants

    Over the coming weeks, the activist group GetUp, environmental groups and the solar industry will be trying to persuade either Victoria or Queensland to say no to the Neg, or to make support for it highly conditional. There will be TV advertisements running in Victoria and Queensland to keep the pressure up.
    :::::
    Amongst Neg opponents, there is frustration that the Victorian government – which faces its own election later this year – has been running dead on the flaws in the scheme, principally the lack of ambition in the emissions reduction target, and there are mutterings behind the scenes about mobilisation against the Andrews government if Victoria signs up to the Neg in August.

    One of the Neg opponents is the Smart Energy Council, which is a solar group. Wayne Smith, the council’s government relations manager, told me this week the message to the state governments over the weeks between now and 10 August will be simple: you sign this deal guys, you own it. You can’t pass this off as anyone else’s policy.

    “If the state governments sign on with a 26% target, then they own the target and its consequences,” Smith says. “They can’t then put their hands on their hearts and say they support renewable energy.”

  34. Murdoch goes for Refugees:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    7h7 hours ago

    People smugglers and suspected asylum seekers have had their latest attempt to reach Australia thwarted by the Royal Australian Navy.

    .@PeterDutton_MP says the attempt is a reminder the problem hasn’t gone away.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2Lh56nQ #SpeersonSunday

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