Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. BREAKING NEWS from @florezcata. Government MP Daryl Maguire is on his way right now to resign, after being busted soliciting kickbacks for a Chinese property deal.

  2. Dan Gulberry @ #10610 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:56 pm

    Al Pal

    And what will the Queen say? Hello Donald, I’ve heard so much about you – and those hands!

    They’ll probably get on like a house on fire. After all they both have German ancestry.

    She’s coped with Phil the Greek for decades, and the Poms have run on Russian oligarchs since the Empire died. I gather she really liked the Obamas, so the comparison would burn Il Douche and his plastic partner. Good.

  3. Maguire has a nice line of comedy 🙂
    .
    ………1.5 per cent divided by two isn’t very good, Mr Maguire replies.

    “Three per cent is a lot better, if you know what I’m talking about.”

    But when challenged as to why he was interested in what the margin was on the property, Mr Maguire told the hearing: “It appears I was talking about a dividend.”

    “Who was the intended person?” Mr Buchanan asked.

    ,“I suspect it was me,” Mr Maguire replied. .

  4. So it’s OK to allow all this inhuman atrocities, but social media is like nah we can’t have you saying strong harsh words.

    Bunch of hypercrits.

  5. Gang violence in Sydney but no mention of their skin colour and no calls for Berejiklian to resign:

    Teens hurl basket at Woolworths staff member in shocking video

    THIS is the moment a Woolies employee nearly gets a shopping basket to the head after staff confronted a group of shoplifting teens.

    EXCLUSIVE
    NEW South Wales Police are looking for a group of shoplifting youths who hurled a shopping basket at security officers during a “brawl” at a Sydney inner city Woolworths earlier this week.

    Shocking footage of the incident obtained by news.com.au shows bemused shoppers — including a mother with a small child in a pram — watching on as a young woman screams and hurls abuse at staff, calling them “f***ing dogs” in an near-incomprehensible, profanity-laden tirade.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/ill-fking-bash-you-gang-of-shoplifting-teens-hurl-basket-at-woolworths-staff-member-in-shocking-video/news-story/2d4a87125c298bb9299693c7fee83835

  6. https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/why-anthony-albanese-no-jeremy-corbyn

    But you never know what to believe in these days of revolving door leadership swaps, where pragmatism has replaced principle in both the major parties.
    :::::
    Either way, the establishment media have a very large platform in which to speculate, spin and generally manipulate public opinion. For some time, at least a section of it has come to Albanese’s aid. That’s because the ruling class know Albanese is a safe bet. Remember News Corp’s “Save our Albo” front page in 2016, when it claimed he was under threat from an alleged Greens preference deal with the Liberals in Grayndler?

    He may be in the capital “L” left faction, but he does not have a close association with unions – left or right – as Shorten has.
    :::
    It’s hard to argue these days that Albanese represents left-wingers who still vote for Labor. His comments on refugee policy, like the other “left” leader Tanya Plibersek, are more evidence of this.
    :::
    Whether led by Shorten, Albanese or Plibersek, Labor has long since abandoned any pretence of support for the tiny numbers of asylum seekers who, according to Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton, are still seeking to come to Australia by boat.

    Albanese voted against boat turn backs at Labor’s 2015 national conference, but it can be safely assumed he won’t be doing the same this December.

    Albanese is not the only front bencher to have shifted to the right. To those who say it has to if it wants to win government, I say look to Britain.
    :::::
    Albanese is an ambitious man — for himself — and he is preparing to be drafted into the top job should the opportunity arise. But don’t be fooled: there is no rift in the Labor Party. An Albanese-led Labor Party will be no different from a Shorten-led one. There is, unfortunately, no big policy debate inside Labor: if there is any at all, it is on the margins.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #2050 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    BREAKING NEWS from @florezcata. Government MP Daryl Maguire is on his way right now to resign, after being busted soliciting kickbacks for a Chinese property deal.

    The CPG would by hysterical for decades if this was Labor. I hope they give the L/NP the same treatment all the way to the next election and beyond.

  8. Boerwar @ #2048 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:16 pm

    GG
    Someone will kill someone one day and there will be a whole lot of hand wringing.

    I reckon you might be over egging. I’ve seen far worse incidents in the old days. And, no one died. Tuohy was stunned and got up fairly quickly. He played out the game after a concussion test. So, while the bump was high it was more designed to maim, not to kill.
    1 week was about right imho.

  9. Pegasus @ #2057 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:31 pm

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/why-anthony-albanese-no-jeremy-corbyn

    But you never know what to believe in these days of revolving door leadership swaps, where pragmatism has replaced principle in both the major parties.
    :::::
    Either way, the establishment media have a very large platform in which to speculate, spin and generally manipulate public opinion. For some time, at least a section of it has come to Albanese’s aid. That’s because the ruling class know Albanese is a safe bet. Remember News Corp’s “Save our Albo” front page in 2016, when it claimed he was under threat from an alleged Greens preference deal with the Liberals in Grayndler?

    He may be in the capital “L” left faction, but he does not have a close association with unions – left or right – as Shorten has.
    :::
    It’s hard to argue these days that Albanese represents left-wingers who still vote for Labor. His comments on refugee policy, like the other “left” leader Tanya Plibersek, are more evidence of this.
    :::
    Whether led by Shorten, Albanese or Plibersek, Labor has long since abandoned any pretence of support for the tiny numbers of asylum seekers who, according to Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton, are still seeking to come to Australia by boat.

    Albanese voted against boat turn backs at Labor’s 2015 national conference, but it can be safely assumed he won’t be doing the same this December.

    Albanese is not the only front bencher to have shifted to the right. To those who say it has to if it wants to win government, I say look to Britain.
    :::::
    Albanese is an ambitious man — for himself — and he is preparing to be drafted into the top job should the opportunity arise. But don’t be fooled: there is no rift in the Labor Party. An Albanese-led Labor Party will be no different from a Shorten-led one. There is, unfortunately, no big policy debate inside Labor: if there is any at all, it is on the margins.

    In short, Labor have a unified policy agenda and are getting on with the job of winning Government as a team.

  10. https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/scott-ludlam-on-section-44-one-year-later?utm_term=.srqyRO3WV#.lfyejWL7Y

    “It’s strange, being the first domino and then copping a certain amount of abuse from Labor which said we were disorganised, and the government who said the Greens were bad and terrible,” Ludlam told BuzzFeed News this week. “I think it has been a surprise for everyone just how deep and widespread it has become.”
    :::
    Ludlam said more dominos were likely to fall before the parliament is done.
    :::
    Ludlam, now 48 years old, is not considering a return to office, he said, because after nine years in the job he thought it appropriate to step back…..
    :::
    Ludlam views the creation of Peter Dutton’s mega ministry of Home Affairs as a “political event horizon”.

    “They are in charge of investigating themselves, they are trusted with some of the most intrusive and coercive powers that have been seen in modern Australian history for a combined government agency, and they are led by a guy without outright, unapologetic authoritarian tendencies,” he said.

    “I think at present he is one of the most dangerous people in politics and I’m looking forward to being a part in some way of the confrontation that is going to happen to throw him out of parliament.”

  11. DTT@4:42pm
    Another tried tactic of Rex is to post that Albanese is a great guy and will be a great leader. Recent LNP tactic with the help of MSM was to stoke leadership tension between Shorten and Albanese. It appears Albanese might have got a towelling at NSW ALP conference. Why do I think that? When ABC has shown footage of unguarded Albanese face, that face showed a lot of concern. May be that is the reason he is keeping a low profile for the time being.
    Recently Rex started promoting Bowen. In one Rex post it was mentioned that Bowen will be better leader than Shorten

  12. grimace @ #2058 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2050 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    BREAKING NEWS from @florezcata. Government MP Daryl Maguire is on his way right now to resign, after being busted soliciting kickbacks for a Chinese property deal.

    The CPG would by hysterical for decades if this was Labor. I hope they give the L/NP the same treatment all the way to the next election and beyond.

    The Libs have lost two Premiers through ICAC inquiries. So, the overall punishments seem to go higher and affect the Libs more. The Obeid stuff was systemic corruption which needed to be sorted. However, I see most of the Libs that have been caught as “chancers” working in their personal interests.

  13. Greensborough Growler @ #2063 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:44 pm

    grimace @ #2058 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2050 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    BREAKING NEWS from @florezcata. Government MP Daryl Maguire is on his way right now to resign, after being busted soliciting kickbacks for a Chinese property deal.

    The CPG would by hysterical for decades if this was Labor. I hope they give the L/NP the same treatment all the way to the next election and beyond.

    The Libs have lost two Premiers through ICAC inquiries. So, the overall punishments seem to go higher and affect the Libs more. The Obeid stuff was systemic corruption which needed to be sorted. However, I see most of the Libs that have been caught as “chancers” working in their personal interests.

    My point exactly GG. I’m not from WA and I know of Obeid, yet rarely is there any mention that the L/NP have lost two *Premiers* in recent time to ICAC.

  14. grimace @ #2064 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2063 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:44 pm

    grimace @ #2058 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2050 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    BREAKING NEWS from @florezcata. Government MP Daryl Maguire is on his way right now to resign, after being busted soliciting kickbacks for a Chinese property deal.

    The CPG would by hysterical for decades if this was Labor. I hope they give the L/NP the same treatment all the way to the next election and beyond.

    The Libs have lost two Premiers through ICAC inquiries. So, the overall punishments seem to go higher and affect the Libs more. The Obeid stuff was systemic corruption which needed to be sorted. However, I see most of the Libs that have been caught as “chancers” working in their personal interests.

    My point exactly GG. I’m not from WA and I know of Obeid, yet rarely is there any mention that the L/NP have lost two *Premiers* in recent time to ICAC.

    Griener was subsequently exhonerated and Barry O’Farrell got pinged for lying/mis-remebering about a bottle of wine. Hardly, the hallmarks of institutionalised corruption.

  15. Ven @ #2063 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 5:44 pm

    DTT@4:42pm
    Another tried tactic of Rex is to post that Albanese is a great guy and will be a great leader. Recent LNP tactic with the help of MSM was to stoke leadership tension between Shorten and Albanese. It appears Albanese might have got a towelling at NSW ALP conference. Why do I think that? When ABC has shown footage of unguarded Albanese face, that face showed a lot of concern. May be that is the reason he is keeping a low profile for the time being.
    Recently Rex started promoting Bowen. In one Rex post it was mentioned that Bowen will be better leader than Shorten

    100% agree

  16. Re: Law and order in Victoria….

    Latest ReachTel poll: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-on-a-knife-edge-as-leaders-face-off-in-tight-state-election-20180708-p4zq7p.html

    But the Coalition has a clear lead over the government on crime, with 55.8 per cent of those polled saying the Liberals were better placed to maintain law and order, considerably more than the 44.2 per cent who chose Labor.

    For crime statistics in Victoria current up to March 2018: https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/

    Explore the statistics available for different types of crime in Victoria by time and area in our interactive map.

  17. In fairness Obeid attempted to defraud the people of NSW of at least $100,000,000. He was convicted and gaoled on some of the lesser charges and the main charges are to heard over the next 6 months – this will not go well for Labor in the lead up March
    Greiner was forced to resign by the crossbenchers of the LA after offering a position to a troublesome backbencher without due process. ICAC became interested but did not get the chance to investigate as the Supreme Court later found that ICAC had operated outside its mandate
    O’Farrell lied to ICAC about receiving a $3000 bottle of wine and not declaring the gift

    Obeid’s notoriety stems from a. The Labor Party’s factional system allowing a douch bag like this gaining control of the state b. The breadth of his greed c. He and his cohort still can’t understand that they did something wrong/got caught

  18. GG
    Only a matter of time before someone does die on the paddock, I believe.
    Apart from that, the League can look forward with considerable confidence to being sued by people like Tuohy for the lack of real protection it afforded to their brains.

  19. The trouble with what the liberals are doing is the long term damage that will be done to our society.
    ___
    Do you think they’d care?

  20. GG@5:44pm
    What concerns most about NSW Liberal Party(LP) is that so many of its MPs were/are caught by ICAC like some garder variety Local Council councillors get caught. Just before last NSW state elections about 10 LP MPs were on cross benches because of ICAC investigations. Fortunately for LP, the stench of Obeid years is very strong with ALP, there was a presentable LNP leader in Baird and a listless leader in Foley for ALP.
    Hartcher was all over Dastyari like a rash. Obviously he got that info on Dastyari from federal intelligence sources. This Maguire guy was caught by ICAC. I am really interested how MSM will treat this story. No wonder MT is opposed to federal ICAC.


  21. BK says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 6:06 pm

    The trouble with what the liberals are doing is the long term damage that will be done to our society.
    ___
    Do you think they’d care?

    No but voters should.

  22. The facts are that elections in Australia are won on race

    That is the history of this Nation, antecedent, contemporaneous and, unfortunately, future

    So to take the high moral ground means you remain rooted to the Opposition benches unable to influence over a period of time and it will take generations

    Look at Dutton proudly proclaiming that immigration into Australia is the lowest since that other racist, Howard (and Hawke was correct in calling him out as racist) and the tactics of the Liberal Party in Victoria including today’s revelations

    Race, race, race

    Because it wins elections

    The irony is that the most fervent racists among us are immigrants and their families

    When I say it will take generations I mean generations, plural

    Racism is that entrenched in Australia – and has impacted elsewhere globally including Brexit and Trump so, again unfortunately, Australia is not alone

    The good fight will not win the day – and by a wide, wide margin

    We have to turn the tide in our own street, at our local shops, in our school communities, among family and friends – and continue when you have your head kicked in by some coward or cowards standing behind a flag or religion

  23. Albo keeps taking different positions of late, including today on immigration to Shorten. He is definitely positioning himself . Its game on.

  24. Mr Maguire, the Liberal MP for Wagga Wagga, has told the ICAC he pursued Mr Hawatt on behalf of Chinese “friends” from the company Country Garden who he was trying to help get established in Australia.

    Outside the ICAC, Mr Maguire apologised for causing “embarrassment and disappointment to a lot of people” before meeting with Acting Premier John Barilaro.

    In a phone conversation played before the inquiry from May 2016, Mr Maguire said his friends were “mega big with mega money” and wanted to invest in as many as 30 development-approved properties.

    Mr Hawatt suggested a $48 million project on Canterbury Road in Canterbury.

    In the phone call, Mr Maguire asks Mr Hawatt what his margin is on the property.

    Mr Hawatt tells Mr Maguire his margin is 1.5 per cent.

    “1.5 per cent divided by two isn’t very good,” Mr Maguire replies.

    “Three per cent is a lot better, if you know what I’m talking about.”

  25. For those who don’t know Canterbury Road in Sydney, it used to be a dump with cheap petrol stations, cheap fast food and cheap shops, half of which were boarded up. And it’s under the flight path.

    It’s one redeeming feature is that it is relatively close to the CBD, half an hour or so by bus, train or light rail. So a prime location for unbridled development of apartments in a booming demand for housing. Enter the spivs, get the rezoning through, pump and dump the property off the plan to Chinese buyers, everyone is happy.

  26. Oakshott county@6:01pm
    Obeid right faction destroyed NSW ALP with the help of some 6 MPs.
    You may already know but the ponzi scheme worked like this.
    A part of NSW right faction wanted to control NSW ALP right. So they started this terrigal group. Obeid some how got a bare majority of those terrigal group under his control. When ever an issue came up for voting, Obeid terrigal faction used to win the vote. The Terrigal group was then bound by that vote. Since the terrigal group was the largest faction NSW AlP right, when the voting in NSW right the terrigal group won the vote. Hence, NSW ALP right faction was bound by that vote. Since NSW ALP right was bigger than NSW ALP left, they usually won the vote. Hence, Obeid got his over the whole party.

  27. sprocket_

    You misses the 😆 punchline.

    Maguire told the hearing: “It appears I was talking about a dividend.”

    “Who was the intended person?” Mr Buchanan asked.

    ,“I suspect it was me,” Mr Maguire replied. .

  28. BW

    Sydney is awash with spivs getting a percentage of the apartment boom in transport corridors. The Liberal state and federal government? Jobs ‘n Growth. Cranes on the skyline.

    Why they would need a Liberal stooge from Wagga Wagga to open doors whilstbtrousering a slice is beyond me. And how did he know Hawatt was in on the Joke? How did the ‘Country Garden” principals in China know that the Wagga Wagga politician could open doors on Canterbury Road?

    So many questions, Gladys..


  29. michael says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 6:13 pm

    Albo keeps taking different positions of late, including today on immigration to Shorten. He is definitely positioning himself . Its game on.

    Don’t you think it is a little sad that all you lot have is an attempt to create leadership tension in the Labor party.

  30. Yes Ven

    I called it the Russian Doll model of Government
    Thanks to the factions
    The government of NSW was controlled by parliament
    which was controlled by the majority Labor Party caucus
    which was controlled by the Centre Unity (Right) Faction
    which was controlled by the Terrigal Sub-faction
    which was controlled by Obeid and Tripodi

    Result = the state is in the hands of a crime family

  31. Pegasus @ #2062 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 2:37 pm

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/scott-ludlam-on-section-44-one-year-later?utm_term=.srqyRO3WV#.lfyejWL7Y

    “It’s strange, being the first domino and then copping a certain amount of abuse from Labor which said we were disorganised, and the government who said the Greens were bad and terrible,” Ludlam told BuzzFeed News this week. “I think it has been a surprise for everyone just how deep and widespread it has become.”
    :::

    Of course if Ludlam had been a member of the Labor Party his dual citizenship would have been picked up by their vetting of candidates, same goes for Waters. 🙂

  32. Oakeshott Country @ #2091 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 6:31 pm

    Yes Ven

    I called it the Russian Doll model of Government
    Thanks to the factions
    The government of NSW was controlled by parliament
    which was controlled by the majority Labor Party caucus
    which was controlled by the Centre Unity (Right) Faction
    which was controlled by the Terrigal Sub-faction
    which was controlled by Obeid and Tripodi

    Result = the state is in the hands of a crime family

    Oakshott

    It has been ever thus.

    Think MacArthur and the Rum Rebellion, Askin and his 350 club.

  33. There will be a lot of attention soon on the trial of the Obeid & Sons over the coal mine rort but I think the real smoky will be the trial of Tripodi and Kelly over the forged cabinet minute which would have given Sydney’s Water Supply to the beagle boys

  34. My office overlooked the disputed site on Canterbury Road. the builders were super enthusiastic and had it up in 6 months in fact they were so enthusiastic that they kept building until they were 3 stories above the planning zone limit.

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