Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. From the Grauniad article. That Guy chappie has form as a nasty little dog whistler.

    In January, Guy warned Melbourne could soon become “the Johannesburg of the South Pacific”,

  2. The Oz article on Guy’s pamphlet tries hard not to criticise the Liberals but the message still gets through to some extent. The opening paragraph sets the tone and the article ends with Liberal spokesperson claiming (wtte) “what? We would never stoop to blatant racism…just obvious innuendo”.

    Victoria’s multiculturalism tsar has accused the Liberal Party of targeting the state’s African communities in a state election flyer which shows shadowy figures in hoodies and declares only the Liberals can “stop gangs hunting in packs”…

    Opposition police spokesman Edward O’Donohue told ABC radio the flyers, which do not mention Africans and do not show the colour of the hoodie-clad teens’ skin, were not targeted at African-Australian youths.

    “What we’re concerned about is gang violence, gang behaviour, by anyone. No matter where they’re from or their background,” he said.

    “Because gangs are a serious problem, crime is a serious problem. There is no doubt that gang violence is an enormous concern to the Victorian community.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/liberal-party-targeting-african-gangs-multiculturalism-tsar-says/news-story/74eab79b9bf82dac74e6a7fd0e7f5d5f

  3. It is not the least bit surprising that the Vic Liberals have gone down this route. There has been a concerted campaign together with our disgraceful media for months.

    Never ever forget that the Prick from Point Piper was right out the front of this ethnic gangs shit back at the start of the year.

  4. I have had enough of Abbott’s delcons. I was on another site, just made a couple of negative comments about Trump, and 50 people hammered me. They are total fruitcakes.

  5. ratsak @ #1992 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    It is not the least bit surprising that the Vic Liberals have gone down this route. There has been a concerted campaign together with our disgraceful media for months.

    Never ever forget that the Prick from Point Piper was right out the front of this ethnic gangs shit back at the start of the year.

    Yep. He led the assault from the front.

  6. Steve777,
    “Rex – please leave that stuff to Daily Telecrap ‘journalists’. At least they’re paid to write it.”

    Who’s to say Rex isn’t paid for his comments.

    The real test for Guy’s racist pamphlet is whether it is backed up by Channel 7. If they don’t come to the party, then its dead.

  7. From memory Jon Faine’s Friday Rap had the Lib Law and order spokesman on and he was getting a fairly hard time, both from Jon and the callers on the racism topic.

  8. Meanwhile in the State of Corruption…

    By Jacob Saulwick

    The state Liberal MP for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire, was trying to organise a “quick” sale for a “mega big” client, according to a secret recording played at a corruption inquiry on Friday.

    Mr Maguire has been drawn into the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s inquiry into the former Canterbury Council through his links to former councillor Michael Hawatt.

    Mr Maguire called Mr Hawatt on May 9, 2016, soon after both had returned from trips to China. The call was recorded by ICAC investigators.

    “Joe and I have a couple of deals before a big developer,” Mr Maguire told Mr Hawatt. “A couple of ones we want to kick on.”

    Mr Maguire, the parliamentary secretary for the Centenary of Anzac, counter-terrorism, corrections and veterans, asked for anything that was DA, or development application, approved.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/my-client-is-mega-big-icac-plays-secret-recording-of-lib-mp-20180713-p4zrcl.html

  9. The Liberal pamphlet is ‘clever’ insofar as it includes a photograph showing a group of people in silhouette, that is, the images are all black. No need to say “African gangs”, the black images convey the message that they are trying to convey.

  10. Oh to be a fly on the wall when Theresa meets Donald at Chequers!
    He’s attacked her, backed Boris and shows that he regards the UK as an enemy. He’s managed to lead every newspaper with his rambling thoughts. He’s openly and cheerfully interfering with the democratic process of another country.
    I wonder if the tea and scones and strawberry jam and cream served at Chequers will be tested for a substance well known to Vladimir.
    And what will the Queen say? Hello Donald, I’ve heard so much about you – and those hands!

  11. Thanks, Victoria. I’ve been aware of the racist agenda of Channel 7 for a while. I was just wondering whether they’d be spooked if the other media get scared.

  12. “Never ever forget that the Prick from Point Piper was right out the front of this ethnic gangs shit back at the start of the year.”

    So that would be the PPP.

  13. “Our new gang busting laws will make Victoria a safer place” for Mafiosi and crooked developers, because while the police are out there chasing non-existing shadows, our mates can get on with their business.

  14. citizen @ #2015 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    The Liberal pamphlet is ‘clever’ insofar as it includes a photograph showing a group of people in silhouette, that is, the images are all black. No need to say “African gangs”, the black images convey the message that they are trying to convey.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    So, basically, the Lobster with a Mobster Guy wants to introduce a Victorian version of the VLAD laws?

  15. Serious question. Does Victoria actually have a ‘gang’ problem? I mean, above and beyond what might be considered the usual ‘background’ level, groups of violent and unruly youths of any ethnicity looking for trouble. Any worse than 4 years ago when the other lot were in power? I recall there were a number of well known ‘colourful’ identities shooting each other for a while, but they were all white and that seems to have settled down.

  16. So what’s the story with the Queen’s heel spurs, or was that one of GG’s windups?

    With Trump, anything’s possible.

  17. steve777

    there are some Youths of African background who are repeat offenders and despite the interventions by elders in their community as well as programs initiated by local and state govts, they continue to re offend. Generally, issues in Victoria are the same as elsewhere. Drug related crime which includes plenty of traffic infringements, robbery, etc. Domestic violence matters and the like.
    The idea that the liberals will somehow do better in this area is laughable.
    Sadly they are dog whistling cos it works.

    One other point I should make from my own perspective. Every time there is a crime that is reported here, I am always grateful when it isnt someone of African background. Reason being is that the crime is reported and amplified as somehow being a bigger problem, then if a white person has committed same crime. Sad but true

  18. C@tmomma@1:29pm
    Rex was/is always a liberal troll, Greens is just a cover otherwise Rex would not have such animosity towards ALP and especially Shorten. You must have already noticed that Rex has 1-2 act. First post a tweet of Greens or reply to one the post criticising ALP and then post how pathetic Shorten is.

  19. C@tmomma @ #2023 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:25 pm

    laughtong @ #2012 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    From memory Jon Faine’s Friday Rap had the Lib Law and order spokesman on and he was getting a fairly hard time, both from Jon and the callers on the racism topic.

    Podcast link please!

    Best I can see is http://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/9952008
    Friday Rap would start at 10.00 – about 1hour 30 minutes into the program.
    I haven’t navigated looking for these before so sorry if there is a better way

  20. I’m rather looking forward to the report of Trump meeting the Queen. She has decades of experience in putting down insolence, without saying a word.

    I bet afterwards he says some rubbish such as “She likes me.”

  21. Re Victoria @4:31PM. So it appears to be something that should be dealt with by the Police and the Courts using existing laws, not requiring any grandstanding by politicians. In NSW we had ‘Vietnamese’ gangs in the 90s, then Lebanese in the 00s. It all settled down mostly without moral panic, in spite of the ‘best’ efforts of Murdoch and shoutback radio.

  22. Ven @ #2028 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    C@tmomma@1:29pm
    Rex was/is always a liberal troll, Greens is just a cover otherwise Rex would not have such animosity towards ALP and especially Shorten. You must have already noticed that Rex has 1-2 act. First post a tweet of Greens or reply to one the post criticising ALP and then post how pathetic Shorten is.

    Absolutely

    Trouble is that too many on here are so very happy to use him to attack the Greens that they totally miss that he is an obvious liberal troll.

    There was one single occasion (I have forgotten what is was now) where Rex actually put forward a genuine view and for a few days thought he might not be a troll. The moment passed.


  23. Steve777 says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    Serious question. Does Victoria actually have a ‘gang’ problem? I mean, above and beyond what might be considered the usual ‘background’ level, groups of violent and unruly youths of any ethnicity looking for trouble. Any worse than 4 years ago when the other lot were in power? I recall there were a number of well known ‘colourful’ identities shooting each other for a while, but they were all white and that seems to have settled down.

    No
    -It is the mist disgusting beat up I have seen.
    -According to Economist we are the world fifth safest city beating the home of the right wing shock jocks by two places.
    -We do have an ICE problems and Melton is affected. ICE is about individuals going off the heads; the only gangs involved are white and they supply the drugs. And yes they were the ones shooting each other.

    As the effort is an attack on a community it represents how low the Liberal party has sunk.

  24. Steve777

    The fiberals and msm are doing identity politics cos it works. Divide and conquer.
    Still surprises me how easily it works

  25. Al Pal

    And what will the Queen say? Hello Donald, I’ve heard so much about you – and those hands!

    They’ll probably get on like a house on fire. After all they both have German ancestry.


  26. Victoria says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    Steve777

    The fiberals and msm are doing identity politics cos it works. Divide and conquer.
    Still surprises me how easily it works

    I’t about time people called it out for what it is. These people do not deserve this; unfortunately they are easily identified and there is always enough losers around to make their life miserable. The sad thugs do not need any encouragement from a loser trying to win an election.

  27. Steve777 @ #2006 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    Serious question. Does Victoria actually have a ‘gang’ problem? I mean, above and beyond what might be considered the usual ‘background’ level, groups of violent and unruly youths of any ethnicity looking for trouble. Any worse than 4 years ago when the other lot were in power? I recall there were a number of well known ‘colourful’ identities shooting each other for a while, but they were all white and that seems to have settled down.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/03/is-melbourne-in-the-grip-of-african-gangs-the-facts-behind-the-lurid-headlines

    About 1% of alleged criminal offenders in Victoria in the year ending September 2017 were Sudanese-born, the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) says, while the Sudanese and South Sudanese communities together make up just 0.14% of the state’s total population.

    Hardly worth the political and media attention currently on offer, but hey this is modern mainstream politics.

  28. “Still surprises me how easily it [dog whistling] works”

    I suspects that it works because 10-20% of Australians are racists.

    Possibly 50% of the racist 15% or so, on the basis of economics, would do better under Labor. Tell them you’re on their side, and get a chunk of them to vote with their bigotry rather than their wallet, and you can shift maybe a percentage point or two to your side. With polls at 51-49 or 52-48, that can make all the difference.

  29. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/13/australia-handed-out-millions-in-aid-contracts-to-company-accused-of-bribery

    The Australian government awarded hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign aid contracts to a company that was found to have been systematically bribing high-level Vietnamese officials.

    Australian consulting firm Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM), a donor to both the Labor and Liberal parties, was a significant corporate player in the government’s foreign aid program for more than a decade, winning 83 contracts worth $489m for projects across the Asia-Pacific.

    But Guardian Australia can reveal evidence of widespread corruption by the firm as it operated in one south-east Asian nation and allegations over dealings in another…

    hmmm…

  30. Murdoch media sounding surprised…

    Shorten makes preference plain
    4:13PM
    Bill Shorten has heaped praise on Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie as he urged voters in Mayo to put the Liberals last. (Oz headline)

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