Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. You’re trying an old tactic DTT… try to turn everyone into a paranoid and accuse people of melodrama and overreach, undermining legitimate claims because a FEW take a few ideas further than they should. It’s what Trump did, it’s what Sanders did.

    Putin IS having political opponent killed, directly or indirectly. Putin’s bots HAVE been interfering in political discourse in the West, to further their own political ends (Brexit, hard-right authoritarians across Europe, Trump) and evidence of direct hacks into voter registration banks in key states in 2016 is real. Just because there isn’t an email saying “Hey xxx, Let’s see if we can get Trump 5,000 more votes in Wisconsin? Love, Vlad. Doesn’t mean the activity wasn’t endorsed by him.

    Have Western powers (namely the US) also done this? Of course, and it was wrong. But Putin’s aims are clear, to break down the Western European consensus and undermine Liberal Democracies across the world.

    Since the only evidence you’ll accept is Putin on tape admitting to doing so, there’s no point bothering to engage with you on this, except to realise that people know the game you’re playing, no one is buying and you’re not convincing anyone.

  2. Phoenix@9:43am
    Wow. Can there be better example of describing Trump! Hats of Paul Wood of BBC. He did not include a few more like a vengeful megalomaniac, acting like spoilt brat, throwing tantrums and lashing out like a baby, who is bent on destroying post-war international institutions like NATO, UN, which stood in good stead for US and Europe.
    BW@10:51am
    ‘Narcissist’ fits like a glove to Trump. He ticks all boxes.

  3. There are lies, daamned lies and Rexxy!

    Sam Dastyari

    Verified account

    @samdastyari
    14h14 hours ago
    More
    I thank my friend @kailamurnain for her very kind and supportive words – but I’m not going back into politics. Leaving was the right decision.

  4. Prof. Higgins @ #1935 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O’Donnell just spent their transition condemning Murdoch’s ‘Sun’ hatchet job on Teresa May today. This is a yet another example about confronting Murdoch’s empire that our future Shorten Labor government might heed.

    If May would sternly rebuke Murdoch’s “buddy” Trump in public that yesterday’s vilification of NATO was totally ignorant, it would constitute Homeric heroism. Of course, Murdoch’s propaganda machine would savage her for it, but how could Murdoch do May’s leadership any worse harm than today’s ‘Sun’ Trump barrage?

    Shorten’s campaign team would do well to remember Pres. Franklin Roosevelt’s famous line about the big business bosses and their newspapers’ vicious attacks against him during his 1936 re-election campaign: “And I welcome their hatred.”

    Prof

    The trouble is that Trump is like the small child that says the emperor has no clothes. The reality is that the US has always been NATO. It supported NATO because it was in a cold war with the USSR. There is no other purpose for NATO.

    Now face hard cold reality. If the USA does not fear invasion by Russia (which it obviously does not) why does it need to continue to support NATO as a buffer to Russia. This is particularly the case if money is tight and the USA wants to cut back its costs (it needs to).

    The reality of the world today is that there are THREE centres of military power and two centres of economic power. The US has solid alliances with Western Europe all based on the premise of defending against Russia.

    However the REAL existential danger for the US is a firm alliance between Russia and China. This is the old Kissinger, Brzezinski dilemma. Be friends with EITHER China OR Russia and never let the two jump into bed together.

    In the years following the Vietnam war the USA was successful in keeping tension between Russia and China quite high and the Nixon administration opted to be nice to China (also kept Japan in check which was rising economically and threatening the US economic dominance.

    The Reagan and then the Clinton regimes were successful in destroying the USSR and the USA had a decade or nearly two of being the undisputed top dog.

    GWH took his eye off the ball (assuming that neither Russia nor China were threats) and went chasing oil revenue from Iraq with a neocon plan of taking over the middle east. Obama was pretty much followed along. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria were each successfully destroyed, although the expected economic benefits have not really flowed.

    Sometime in the Obama administration period China suddenly emerged as a threat. I recall a defence white paper sometime during the first Rudd era so I guess about 2009. China it was revealed was building submarines – lots of them and advanced ones. We started to hear about containing China and Hillary Clinton tried her ill fated Russia reset, because one again the old dilemma re-emerged – do not let these two get together.

    Trouble is that this reset did not work. Putin was a strong personality unlike Yeltsin and also a strong nationalist. He strongly resented the USA and Clinton in particular, because of the eastward movement of NATO and probably the economic destruction wrought by US firms in the terrible decade of the 90s. China was transporting into the economic power house it is today.

    This has left the USA with a huge problem. Two large powerful rivals. to survive as the world’s superpower the USA must

    1. defeat both economically and militarily – a huge ask
    2. Choose one or the other to befriend so as to weaken the other
    3. Accept that it has lost its place as the dominant world power and settle back into a prosperous but not dominant position – sort of like the UK

    I think that the realists in the USA have accepted that No 1 is no longer possible – some may still hope but it is not really realistic in the absence of a major war including use of nukes. The members of the US establishment are just not ready to accept this reality (just as the UK still thought it could hang on to Egypt and Iraq post WWII).

    Trump is currently muddling his way through No 2. He seems to have chosen to befriend Russia (the Kissinger option) rather than China. Meeting Putin and Kim are BOTH aimed at weakening China. There are many, many in the USA who would prefer to choose China (assuming they have moved past No 1). That is what the Russophobia stuff is all about.

    I doubt either will work. It is too late for that. However what we are all witnessing is the painful reality that the USA is an aging empire . Trump is its symptom and rather ugly face.

  5. SK@11:31am
    You are wired to think the way you thnk because of the relatives, freinds and society around you.
    You tend to think people in US, UK and Australia cannot be horrible people like Trump. There is tendency to think that kind of people reside in only Russia, African and Muslim countries contrary to evidence.

  6. Mr Trump likes strong leaders. If Ms May was a strong leader she’d cancel the rest of the trip and ask him to leave, citing his poor behaviour as a guest.

  7. Ven says: Friday, July 13, 2018 at 1:06 pm

    Phoenix@9:43am
    Wow. Can there be better example of describing Trump! Hats of Paul Wood of BBC

    *************************************************

    Hi Ven – I think between Paul Wood and Rick Wilson ( sounds so like how Rick berates anything Trump ) they managed to give a very colourful, precise and detailed description of Trump and his degenerate, unprincipled, immoral and licentious aspects of his life and his observable behaviours.

    I am sure Ricks upcoming book :

    “Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever” will be a great read given his dark humour and his critical analysis of how he sees Trump damaging not only the US but also the many lives association with Trump has destroyed …..

  8. But Workplace Minister Craig Laundy on Friday announced Ms James would be replaced by Sandra Parker, a long-serving public sector official and current deputy secretary at the Department of Jobs and Small Business, following a merit-based selection process. 22 June 2018 — 2:20pm

  9. The last 2 multiple murderers in Australia were middle-aged, middle class white men. Remember that the next time Matthew Guy, or any other craven Liberal in campaign mode tries to scare you about ‘African gangs’. Think, when was the last time someone from the Sudanese community murdered anyone? Can’t remember? Probably because it hasn’t happened. Yet, the Liberal Party are trying to get the electorate to believe that ‘terrorising’ people on the streets is worse.

    It’s pathetic.

    Anyway, look out for an article about this in The Saturday Paper tomorrow by Maker Mayek. He’s a Sudanese community leader that I follow on Twitter.

  10. simon holmes à court

    @simonahac
    30m
    30 minutes ago

    More
    just checking that everyone knows that the @acccgovau:
    • did not say we need more “baseload” generation
    • did not say the government should subsidise coal power
    • did not endorse any technologies.
    #auspol

    Yet according to coal fans Joyce and Canavan, the report showed support for coal.

    Shows that
    1. They see what they want to see.
    2. Biased thinkers like these should not be making policy decisions for Aus.

  11. Well, I’ll take it as a mark of distinction to have joined the ranks of those Bludgers whose opinions I respect highly —- because I’ve now been officially Daretotreadsplained!

    Accordingly, I thank Dtt for devoting such an extraordinary amount of time contributing voluminously to so many discussions in this forum.

  12. Andrew Bartlett
    1 hr ·
    Imagine being so devoid of principle, only in politics for the power and the pay check, so self interested, that you would harm members of your own community by whipping up racist violence because you think it might scare people into voting for you.

    This was in relation to the Noble Park flyers in Melbourne.

    It can also be applied federally to the bipartisan asylum seeker policy.

  13. It is not the least bit surprising that the Vic Liberals have gone down this route. There has been a concerted campaign together with our disgraceful media for months.

  14. Prof. Higgins says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 2:02 pm
    Well, I’ll take it as a mark of distinction to have join the ranks of those Bludgers whose opinions I respect highly —- because I’ve now been officially Daretotreadsplained!

    ____________________________

    Yeah, nah, you haven’t made it to the top tier until DTT calls you a dickhead or worse.

  15. C@tmomma
    “So, you’re being a Liberal troll today, Rex?”

    Rex is a Lib troll only on days ending in the letter ‘y’.

  16. “I thank my friend @kailamurnain for her very kind and supportive words – but I’m not going back into politics. Leaving was the right decision.”

    Saw the front page of the Telecrap at a newsagent. Looks like they’re making up stuff again, or at least not checking.

    A foretaste of what we’ll be seeing in the coming election campaign.

    What’s coming out on the East Timor ‘negotiations’ is Far was than anything Sam Dastyari is alleged to have done.

  17. We’ve all seen it before. Shanghai Sam will bow to pressure and return to politics to help NSW Labor. We need Sam ! 😆

  18. J341983 @ #1950 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    You’re trying an old tactic DTT… try to turn everyone into a paranoid and accuse people of melodrama and overreach, undermining legitimate claims because a FEW take a few ideas further than they should. It’s what Trump did, it’s what Sanders did.

    Putin IS having political opponent killed, directly or indirectly. Putin’s bots HAVE been interfering in political discourse in the West, to further their own political ends (Brexit, hard-right authoritarians across Europe, Trump) and evidence of direct hacks into voter registration banks in key states in 2016 is real. Just because there isn’t an email saying “Hey xxx, Let’s see if we can get Trump 5,000 more votes in Wisconsin? Love, Vlad. Doesn’t mean the activity wasn’t endorsed by him.

    Have Western powers (namely the US) also done this? Of course, and it was wrong. But Putin’s aims are clear, to break down the Western European consensus and undermine Liberal Democracies across the world.

    Since the only evidence you’ll accept is Putin on tape admitting to doing so, there’s no point bothering to engage with you on this, except to realise that people know the game you’re playing, no one is buying and you’re not convincing anyone.

    Not at all.

    I accept that like many other nations Putin played a game with the USA. He preferred Trump to Clinton whom he seemed to dislike. and who has been a long time enemy of Russia. I have little doubt that he would have done whatever he could to influence the US election.

    However it is a pots and kettles argument. In the 2014 Russian election, the USA had been a very, very active participant in efforts to defeat Putin. Can you see a pattern. You cannot rationally object to anything Putin may have done without ALSO acknowledging that what the US did was also wrong. Ditto the role of USA in promoting the anti Russian coup in Ukraine.

    Secondly there were unquestionably other nations who played a major role in US elections – funding and support. Most obvious is the role of Saudi Arabia with the election of the Bushes (especially the first). Then there is the clear funding from Israel via many dual citizens and companies. Also it seems obvious that both the UK and possibly even Australia played a role in influencing the election, via the Steele dossier. Downer obviously was a serving Diplomat and I think it probable that Steele was acting under the auspices of the MI6.

    So while calling out Russia is OK carrying on like a pork chop about it is hypocritical and self defeating. Call out EVERYBODY not singling out a particular nation about whom you are phobic.

    In any case the evidence that the Russian involvement had anything more that a peripheral impact is scant to non existent. Storm in a teacup stuff.

    As for Putin’s evil Dr Strangelove plans to destroy Liberal Democracy you really are talking through your hat. Putin is (or was) in fact quite western oriented. As a major supporter of the Russian Orthodox church he seems to have had a lot in common with Western democratic tradition although clearly he is also a Russian nationalist. He has continued even until last month to put in place a very, very pro western economic team – Medevev for which he has taken much criticism within Russia. Putin is essentially a capitalist in the strongest of liberal traditions.

    However does Putin was to destroy or weaken the EU. Yes I assume he does. He would like to be able to deal with Germany and probably France as trading partners with out the complexity of the EU. One assumes that relations with Poland and most of the Baltic nations will be strained for dome time, so obviously it is in Russia’s interest to deal directly with the bigger players with pout the complexity of the EU. Of course one obvious option could be to invite Russia to JOIN the EU. It certainly has more claim that Turkey and with the shift to autocracy in Poland, Australia and Hungary, Russia probably would better meet even the “democracy”obligations for membership than those nations.

    However your problem and that of so many in the west is that you are unable to distinguish between a county seeking to best protect/enhance its national self interest and some sort of demonic desire to destroy others. Russia wants to sell oil and gas to Europe. It wants to sell them manufactured goods and at the same time import luxuries from Germany etc. However Russia does not want to be CONTROLLED by outside forces. It does not want a repeat of the horror years of the 90s where oligarchs mostly linked to US investors siezed the nation’s wealth and almost destroyed the country.Life expectancy tumbled and the nation was practically a failed third world state. This was of course exaclty what the US wanted.

    It is to YOUR shame that you think this was acceptable – that children would starve or die of cold, and resent a nationalist leader who said enough.

    I might add that we in Australia are JUST as exploited by overseas entities and would do well to take a leaf out of the Putin playbook and act in the interests of Australia rather than nebulous OS companies – British, US, Chinese or otherwise.

  19. Prof. Higgins @ #1971 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 2:02 pm

    Well, I’ll take it as a mark of distinction to have join the ranks of those Bludgers whose opinions I respect highly —- because I’ve now been officially Daretotreadsplained!

    Accordingly, I thank Dtt for devoting such an extraordinary amount of time contributing voluminously to so many discussions in this forum.

    Poor Diddums

    For a prof you are a little sensitive!

  20. Prof. Higgins says:
    Friday, July 13, 2018 at 2:26 pm
    Don,
    Didn’t know there’s a Top Tier. I’ll obviously need to be a whole lot more “aspirational”.
    _________________

    After seeing DTT’s reply to your latest (below), you are almost there, keep trying, I have faith that you will get to the top echelon!

    All you have to do is disagree with something DTT says, that usually gets you there!

    __________________
    DTT:

    Poor Diddums

    For a prof you are a little sensitive!

    __________________

  21. “We’ve all seen it before. Shanghai Sam will bow to pressure and return to politics to help NSW Labor. We need Sam ! “

    Rex – please leave that stuff to Daily Telecrap ‘journalists’. At least they’re paid to write it.

  22. C@Tmomma
    Remember the Jackie Kelly campaign in NSW? They have form. It’s a Crosby/Textor special.

    I well remember.

    I also remember the disgusting behaviour of the Liberals in East Hills during the last state election.

  23. Chris Bowen comments…

    ‘I don’t usually criticise Government appointments of senior public servants. But the Government’s appointment of Scott Morrison’s Chief of Staff as Head of Treasury is beyond the pale. This Government is addicted to politicising the Treasury and this will make it worse.’

  24. sprocket_ @ #1969 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 2:54 pm

    Chris Bowen comments…

    ‘I don’t usually criticise Government appointments of senior public servants. But the Government’s appointment of Scott Morrison’s Chief of Staff as Head of Treasury is beyond the pale. This Government is addicted to politicising the Treasury and this will make it worse.’

    Fair comment.

  25. Lizzie – I’m sorry I missed your post from earlier today. Is there much sense of this influencing voter opinion in Victoria?

  26. Steve777 @ #1967 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 2:51 pm

    “We’ve all seen it before. Shanghai Sam will bow to pressure and return to politics to help NSW Labor. We need Sam ! “

    Rex – please leave that stuff to Daily Telecrap ‘journalists’. At least they’re paid to write it.

    Us Liberal bots are on a good wicket I’ll have you know.

  27. “Us Liberal bots are on a good wicket I’ll have you know.”

    I’m not accusing you of being a ‘bot’, Liberal or otherwise, just disagreeing. While disagreeing, I defend to the… well, mild inconvenience- your right to say it.

  28. Don,
    Many thanks for the encouragement. Alas, Robert Browning’s line is apt in my case, “….. a man’s reach should exceed his grasp. Or what’s a heaven for?” 🙂

  29. and possibly even Australia played a role in influencing the election, via the Steele dossier. Downer obviously was a serving Diplomat and I think it probable that Steele was acting under the auspices of the MI6.

    The Steele dossier was published in January 2017

  30. JimmyD

    Is there much sense of this influencing voter opinion in Victoria?

    You mean the African Gang stuff?

    I’m too much out of the city to know, but the media are plugging it on behalf of the Libs. Typical.

  31. Jimmy D

    I’m in northeast suburbs
    Our local paper this week had front page story responding to letter being circulated around suburb of Montmorency. GG linked it earlier.

    I will see if I can link local paper story

  32. Following on from Guy’s disgusting ‘gangs’ flyer, Murdoch’s Oz has this:

    African gang strikes in CBD

    1:44PMRICHARD FERGUSON
    A 27-year-old man was bashed and robbed by up to 12 youths of African appearance less than 1km from Victoria’s parliament.

    How about Murdoch crusading to remove the Berejiklian government because of the unprovoked knife attack on a 16yo at Woolworths car park in Balmain yesterday, with the victim in a critical condition. The attacker is described as ‘of caucasian appearance’.

    Better still, how about the NSW government crusading to remove itself because crime is ‘out of control’?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/teen-critical-after-random-stabbing-at-sydney-woolworths-20180713-p4zr7v.html

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