Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. In an extraordinary intervention timed to coincide with his UK visit, Mr Trump said Theresa May ignored his advice by opting for a soft Brexit strategy.

    And he warned her any attempts to maintain close ties with the EU would make a lucrative US trade deal very unlikely.

    Mr Trump said: “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6766531/trump-may-brexit-us-deal-off/

  2. As any deal with Donald Trump and Trumpistan would likely only go ahead if it benefits Trumpistan and the Trump crime family, then Theresa May should thank her lucky stars that the UK-Trumpistan trade deal has been called off by Trump.

  3. Confessions – you may be interested in this :

    ‘President Pussy Grabber’ has his way with the GOP

    – Paul Wood of the BBC gives a stellar review of @TheRickWilson’s book Everything Trump Touches Dies

    In this book, Trump is President Pussy Grabber, a self-admitted sexual harasser, a serial adulterer who engaged in a string of risible, sleazy affairs to meet a desperate need to have his manhood validated, a man with a lemur wig and a twelve-pound bolus of chin-wattle who thinks he’s irresistible to women, a faux billionaire up to his ample ass in debt, a man who has boasted about his own dishonesty in life, marriage, and business, a TV talk show character who slithered into the Oval Office on a tide of Russian influence and now thinks he won on his merits, a president without a shred of dignity, an international laughing stock, a man of spectacular vulgarity, vanity, and gimcrack gold-leaf aesthetic, a shallow, lazy, ignoramus with the attention span of a gnat on meth and a grasp of history derived solely from the movies, an absurd lout, a ludicrous clown, a verbally incontinent, psychologically unbalanced stain on the presidency, the living, shitty embodiment of a culture that’s more Real Housewives and less Shining City on a Hill, a presidential chimpanzee throwing his feces, and – most worryingly for Wilson – America’s first modern president with genuinely authoritarian inclinations.

    https://usa.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/president-pussy-grabber-has-his-way-with-the-gop/

  4. I’m going to make a prediction.

    When Trump comes out of his meeting with Putin, he will announce that the sanctions against Russia should be taken off and that Trumpistan and Russia should ink a Trade Deal.

  5. The Spectator UK does NOT like Trump, I think is an understatement:

    In this book, Trump is President Pussy Grabber, a self-admitted sexual harasser, a serial adulterer who engaged in a string of risible, sleazy affairs to meet a desperate need to have his manhood validated, a man with a lemur wig and a twelve-pound bolus of chin-wattle who thinks he’s irresistible to women, a faux billionaire up to his ample ass in debt, a man who has boasted about his own dishonesty in life, marriage, and business, a TV talk show character who slithered into the Oval Office on a tide of Russian influence and now thinks he won on his merits, a president without a shred of dignity, an international laughing stock, a man of spectacular vulgarity, vanity, and gimcrack gold-leaf aesthetic, a shallow, lazy, ignoramus with the attention span of a gnat on meth and a grasp of history derived solely from the movies, an absurd lout, a ludicrous clown, a verbally incontinent, psychologically unbalanced stain on the presidency, the living, shitty embodiment of a culture that’s more Real Housewives and less Shining City on a Hill, a presidential chimpanzee throwing his feces, and – most worryingly for Wilson – America’s first modern president with genuinely authoritarian inclinations.

  6. AR and the Putin aaahhhh!!!!!! crowd you need to explain a few things.

    1. Trump loves Boris the Bozo – he said that and it fits with the Trump personality. It would seem as if Trump has given support tpo Bozo as the next UK PM

    2. Boris hates Putin with a passion.

    Can you please explain this disconnect?

  7. daretotread. @ #1906 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 10:07 am

    AR and the Putin aaahhhh!!!!!! crowd you need to explain a few things.

    1. Trump loves Boris the Bozo – he said that and it fits with the Trump personality. It would seem as if Trump has given support tpo Bozo as the next UK PM

    2. Boris hates Putin with a passion.

    Can you please explain this disconnect?

    It doesn’t matter what Boris the Tory Clown thinks. If he wants to be PM he will do and think what Trump and Putin tell him to.

  8. You still don’t seem to get it, DTT.

    Trump (and indeed people like Boris) aren’t in it for ‘governing’.

    They are in it for disruption and impact.

    Trump ultimately wants two things: money (and lots of it) and validation, as an alpha male who can direct everything in his sphere of influence (like his hero Putin). He seems to think if people speak his name loud enough (for whatever reason) that makes him powerful.

    Boris is a notoriety junkie (our own Xenophon is similar, though perhaps a little more restrained)

  9. “Trump (and indeed people like Boris) aren’t in it for ‘governing’.”
    Turnbull and Abbott can easily be added to that list.

  10. Indeed Sohar, but we have some safeguards … that said, there has been a slow, creeping diminution of some of the safeguards by this government.

    That is why it is crucial we have a progressive govt soon. We need to relay the proper foundations. Firmly.

  11. Johnson wants to be PM, Putin wants to see the Western European order and the EU collapse and Trump wants adoration from nativist morons.

  12. Vic – the power = validation

    Both Johnson and Trump want validation more than anything.

    Both are unattractive, parodies of men who really think they’ve been dismissed by too many too often. Thus they need to impact upon the world through disruption.

  13. jenauthor

    Trump being the narcissist that he is, definitely wants validation. but he also wants money and power that forms part of his validation. the worst thing that can happen to him now is that he will be exposed as being a bankrupt with no real money

  14. Standard characteristics of a narcissist lifted from the web:

    ‘1. Has a grandiose sense of self-importance.
    2. Is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love.
    3. Believes that he or she is “special” and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions).
    4. Requires excessive admiration [regularly fishes for compliments, and is highly susceptible to flattery].
    5. Has a sense of entitlement.
    6. Is interpersonally exploitative.
    7. Lacks empathy: is unwilling [or, I would add, unable] to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others.
    8. Is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her.
    9. Shows arrogant, haughty [rude and abusive] behaviors or attitudes.’

  15. From the US
    Alabama’s governor has called to ban sheriffs from pocketing funds meant to feed inmates. A controversial Depression-era law in Alabama allowed sheriffs to keep as personal income any funds left over from covering the costs of prisoners’ meals.

    There is no limit to the strangeness of the United States. Certainly more strangeness than quark or charm.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/alabama-governor-orders-end-to-longstanding-practice-of-sheriffs-keeping-leftover-prisoner-food-funds-as-personal-income.html

  16. j
    That did rather strike me as well! I was at the gym this morning and suddenly burst out in loud guffaws, startling some of my fellow gymsters.
    I was watching Trump’s interview following his NATO WRECK meeting. He described himself as a ‘stable genius’.
    V
    Yep. I bet he tortured cats when he was a child.

  17. Trump (and indeed people like Boris) aren’t in it for ‘governing’.

    It is actually very difficult to fully understand this and grasp its consequences. It is normally reasonable to assume other people think like us and have the same values and compassion; but the brains of some people are wired completely differently.

    It isnt an easy concept to get your head around even if you know the principle.

  18. Boerwar

    Yep. He is now moved on to torturing us with his treasonous leadership

    Simon Katich

    Actually Trump is easy to understand as his behaviour has been fairly predictable and consistent for decades. The fact that so many are blinded to his malignant and deviant conduct is what still surprises me.

  19. Simon, even Turnbull and Abbott could be put into that ‘non-governing’ category … although it is by far more subtle here.

    Many of today’s world leaders would be more at home as royalty — figureheads who see themselves as supreme and superior, leaving the actual work to underlings but having a lot to say about that work in eruptions of self-aggrandisement.

    Abbott, Duterte and Kim, could possibly have their own category as they have particular pet policies that the foster but beyond those, it is about narcissistic gratification.

    I think part of Abbott’s continuous shit-stirring is purely about ‘look at me!’ As he knows he will not get leadership back whilst Libs are in power.

  20. Seriously so many good people have dropped off the perch before their time.
    Why is this excrement still stealing oxygen

    Search Twitter
    Conversation
    Kevin Maguire
    Kevin Maguire
    @Kevin_Maguire
    Word is Murdoch’s fixed a Trump interview with The Sun after arranging one for The Times(Michael Gove did it on a Cabinet break). US Pres planning PR counter attack to London’s huge inflatable orange nappied baby
    3:54 PM · Jul 12, 2018

  21. Gee Whiz

    Now Boris is a Putin sleeper. Wow!

    Julie Bishop likes Boris so she is also a Putin Plant

    Bishop supported Turnbull so he is obviously also a Putin puppet.

    It all makes sense now!
    Now on the principle that the gentlemen doth protesteth too much BW, Phoenix Cameron and AR are also Putin plants.

    I am yet to decide if others are CIA plants, double agents or just dupes.

    Yeah all sorted now,

  22. Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O’Donnell just spent their transition condemning Murdoch’s ‘Sun’ hatchet job on Teresa May today. This is a yet another example about confronting Murdoch’s empire that our future Shorten Labor government might heed.

    If May would sternly rebuke Murdoch’s “buddy” Trump in public that yesterday’s vilification of NATO was totally ignorant, it would constitute Homeric heroism. Of course, Murdoch’s propaganda machine would savage her for it, but how could Murdoch do May’s leadership any worse harm than today’s ‘Sun’ Trump barrage?

    Shorten’s campaign team would do well to remember Pres. Franklin Roosevelt’s famous line about the big business bosses and their newspapers’ vicious attacks against him during his 1936 re-election campaign: “And I welcome their hatred.”

  23. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    3m3 minutes ago

    A child has died of influenza in NSW prompting health authorities to warn of the dangers of not vaccinating

    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    47s48 seconds ago

    Johnson & Johnson must pay at least $US550 million to women who claimed asbestos in talc products caused them to develop ovarian cancer

  24. jenauthor @ #1926 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 11:50 am

    Simon, even Turnbull and Abbott could be put into that ‘non-governing’ category … although it is by far more subtle here.

    Many of today’s world leaders would be more at home as royalty — figureheads who see themselves as supreme and superior, leaving the actual work to underlings but having a lot to say about that work in eruptions of self-aggrandisement.

    Abbott, Duterte and Kim, could possibly have their own category as they have particular pet policies that the foster but beyond those, it is about narcissistic gratification.

    I think part of Abbott’s continuous shit-stirring is purely about ‘look at me!’ As he knows he will not get leadership back whilst Libs are in power.

    Jen

    You claim to have studied histroy so try looking at it in an historical way not through a lens of phobia.

    To equate Abbott, Kim and Duterte in any meaningful way is to equate you and BW or you and Cat. You all post on PB with broadly similar view points but you are each different and come to this blog in different ways.

    So let us look at each of the three.

    Abbott is a religious ideologue. Influenced by BA Santa Maria he is passionately anti communist, but NOT particularly anti worker (for the LNP). He also seems to be a Britophile ie a monarchist who probably actually sees UK as his spiritual home. He has an overblown notion if his own abilities. However he is NOT a dictatorial autocrat nor in any sense someone who would ever become a dictator. He is an ideologue but not a demagogue. Narcissistic yes and repressed. But not a dictator, Now there are plenty in the LNP who are by personality and inclination dictatorial. Obviously Dutton and even Morrison to a degree. Probably Cash. Kennet and Campbell Newman fit the bill too. But NOT Abbott.

    Kim is NOT a psychopath. He is simply a MONARCH. As a historian you should understand that Kim is simply a dynastic successor. If if was Europe circa 1500 he would be termed Kim III. Just as the Queen’s ancestors and predecessors including her illustrious namesake, chopped of heads and imprisoned anyone who threatened the stability of the monarchy, so too does Kim. He is playing a game to preserve his dynastic position – Like say Henry II of England (Kim is third generation). So too was Elizabeth I and the two seem to share quite a bit in common. Stop looking at everything through an ignorant badly taught western perspective circa 1950. Democracy is a great system I love it but it is NOT the natural order of societies and Kim is simply ruling according to the methods that were ours just 400 years ago.

    Duterte IS a demagogue and potential dictator. He is the only one that fits the bill.However even there you should use a bit of common sense. Philippines has had a series of dictators and Duterte is simply the latest. it is a country riddled with corruption that is unbelievable poor and shows little sign of emerging from this morass. Christianity seems to have done it few favours.

  25. Ven

    Lizzie@6:53am
    I am troubled that you could not believe Cash appointed one of her staff as Fair Work Ombudsman (which is outrageous).
    Why I am concerned? That shows you that a little part of your brain still believes that Cash and this government will do the right thing by the people of this country after what they did till now ( I am shaking my head)

    Untrouble yourself and try to be a little more perceptive. I assure you that all my brain is utterly convinced that Cash and Co will never do the ‘right’ thing by this country.

  26. Confessions@9:29am
    I am being nice here but Trump is very sick in his mind. Hence he needs a nursemaid. His palm is pointing downwards and May wrapped her palm around his palm. Weird indeed.

  27. Bill McKibben
    ‏Verified account @billmckibben
    12h12 hours ago

    I’ve never CAPSLOCKED before, but IRELAND JUST VOTED TO BECOME THE FIRST NATION ON EARTH TO FULLY DIVEST FROM FOSSIL FUELS. It’s a fine day, begorra!

  28. DTT

    You make a habit of extrapolating and complicating where there is not need.

    There is no way any of us can get inside these people’s heads and intent the way you seem to insist upon.

    For once, it’d be nice, if you take a post at face value.

    I’m not in the mood for opuses

  29. How low will Matthew Guy go ? VERY. Picture taken from UK newspaper !

    @SarahRubyWrites
    Liep Gony was bashed to death by white supremacists in Noble Park after confected media reports about ‘gangs’. This is his little sister at his funeral. And this is the flyer @MatthewGuyMP just released in that area.

    3:31 PM – Jul 12, 2018
    https://twitter.com/SarahRubyWrites/status/1017310565218172929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1017310565218172929&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2018%2F05%2F07%2Fthe-big-budget-bribe-2018%2F

  30. I read that Trump has publicly involved himself in UK domestic politics by commenting on the Brexit process, May’s leadership and her potential rivals.

    Its long been clear that the man has no decorum and no regard for established convention. If this had been Obama, or any other politician from the Left, even an obscure one, the world’s media would have been hysterical. Their silence is telling and they are a disgrace.

  31. JimmyD

    The pic on their poster (apparently ‘lifted’ from an English newspaper) is evidence of their determination to take advantage of anything that supports their lies.

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