Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Good numbers but still disturbing that, after all the stumbles, One Nation is strong. The cult of personality in politics, eh?

  2. WA seems to have softened significantly for Labor, perhaps voters exercising their frustration against state Libs took some of the steam out of it.

  3. The Yankee Dollar is attempting to take over global politics with bully boy tactics, and it’s disgusting:

    New York: A resolution to encourage breastfeeding was expected to be approved quickly and easily by the hundreds of government delegates who gathered this spring in Geneva for the United Nations-affiliated World Health Assembly.

    Based on decades of research, the resolution says that mother’s milk is healthiest for children and countries should strive to limit the inaccurate or misleading marketing of breast milk substitutes.

    Then the US delegation, embracing the interests of infant formula manufacturers, upended the deliberations.

    American officials sought to water down the resolution by removing language that called on governments to “protect, promote and support breastfeeding” and another passage that called on policymakers to restrict the promotion of food products that many experts say can have deleterious effects on young children.

    When that failed, they turned to threats, according to diplomats and government officials who took part in the discussions. Ecuador, which had planned to introduce the measure, was the first to find itself in the cross hairs.

    The Americans were blunt: If Ecuador refused to drop the resolution, Washington would unleash punishing trade measures and withdraw crucial military aid. The Ecuadorean government quickly acquiesced.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-stuns-world-health-community-by-opposing-breastfeeding-20180709-p4zqau.html

    I breastfed my first baby for 16 months, including the transition to hard foods, but not the second due to palate deformity, so there is a place for formula, but breast is best!

  4. Journos are hurriedly writing these results as a threat to Shorten.
    Does WA Tasmania and South Australia have smaller sample sizes?

  5. C@t

    The Yankee Dollar is attempting to take over global politics with bully boy tactics, and it’s disgusting:

    Agree x 1000.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Turnbull has suffered a backlash in Queensland while losing ground in NSW and Victoria, according to a new analysis that reveals a powerful swing to Labor ahead of five byelections this month. David Crowe says his bit about these Ipsos polls.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-swing-to-labor-in-grim-poll-for-turnbull-20180708-p4zq8h.html
    Daniel Andrews’ Labor government is clinging to a knife-edge lead over the Matthew Guy-led Coalition, just four months out from November’s state election, an exclusive poll for The Age has revealed.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-on-a-knife-edge-as-leaders-face-off-in-tight-state-election-20180708-p4zq7p.html
    The British woman Dawn Sturgess exposed to Novichok nerve agent has just died.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/british-woman-dawn-sturgess-exposed-to-novichok-nerve-agent-dies-20180709-p4zqaw.html
    Jess Irvine has some ideas on how to fix our broken property market. A good read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-to-fix-australia-s-broken-property-market-20180708-p4zq6u.html
    Ross Gittins opines that productivity isn’t improving as fast it could be partly because of the increasing number of our brightest and best devoting their efforts to nothing more productive than helping their bosses or customers game the system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/clever-tax-strategies-may-be-legal-but-they-aren-t-productive-20180708-p4zq7q.html
    Mike Pompeo went to Pyongyang to get Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear weapons. He left with a reminder of exactly what the price would be.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/kim-jong-un-reminds-donald-trump-denuclearisation-won-t-come-cheap-20180709-p4zqam.html
    Insurers and the big banks hit with royal commission-related investigations could be left without adequate financial protection as corporate insurers try to stem ongoing losses. To minimise potential fallout the corporate insurance sector has begun to insert “royal commission exclusions” into the class action defence policies it provides to ASX-listed companies, as well as the professional indemnity protection provided to top executives.
    https://outline.com/XXp6UJ
    And APRA is preparing to investigate life insurers after a preliminary review of the sector revealed the “bells and whistles” and cheap pricing associated with loss-making individual income protection insurance is putting the product’s long-term viability at risk.
    https://outline.com/LheZ3p
    The SMH editorial celebrates the opportunity Malaysia now has to crest an era of openness, transparency and properly contested democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/at-last-a-new-page-for-malaysia-20180708-p4zq8q.html
    Kate McClymont reports that Eddie Obeid and his illustrious family owes NSW taxpayers a cool $7 million.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/eddie-obeid-s-7-million-debt-to-nsw-taxpayers-20180708-p4zq9c.html
    Paul Maley writes that SAS officers are being given additional training in ethics and morality as the army braces itself for a potentially damning report
    https://outline.com/sskK9x
    Peter van Onselen says Abbott is the least of Frydenberg’s NEG worries.
    https://outline.com/SMEEd
    Tony Wright tells us about the battle in Mayo. (I’m off to Gumeracha this morning to catch up with Rebekha Sharkie this morning).
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mayo-hopefuls-get-down-among-the-drivers-and-the-dishes-20180708-p4zq9a.html
    The PM is under pressure from both sides of politics to establish a royal commission into retail electricity pricing.
    https://outline.com/mPLupb
    An Australia-UK trade deal is pointless after Theresa May saw off Eurosceptic Tory opponents of her “soft Brexit” strategy which will keep Britain subject to EU rules on agriculture.
    https://outline.com/gedcBP
    According to Jordan Baker teachers are struggling with the increasing amount of time they are being asked to spend on data entry. It’s a quagmire of buzzwords; evidence gathering, validation, and the long, after-school meetings about school plans.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-re-not-being-trusted-teachers-drowning-in-paperwork-at-expense-of-teaching-20180706-p4zq1b.html
    Advocates for improved nutrition for babies have expressed outrage over reports that the Trump administration bullied other governments in an attempt to prevent the passage of an international resolution promoting breastfeeding. Stark raving mad!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/08/trump-administration-opposes-breastfeeding-resolution-report
    Anna Patty tells us how a new report suggests a third of Australians experience jet lag-like symptoms associated with using tablets and laptops in the hour before they go to bed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/one-third-of-australians-are-jet-lagged-from-lack-of-sleep-20180708-p4zq7t.html
    Nassim Khardem reports on how the RBA says technology companies such as Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon expand their payments platforms and new players emerge, regulators may need to step in and guarantee minimum standards of security for the entire payments system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/security-vulnerabilities-risk-of-fraud-in-electronic-payments-rba-20180708-p4zq95.html
    The RAAF’s new strike fighters have corrosion ¬issues after a protective primer was not applied when painting the F-35s. WTF!!!
    https://outline.com/FUNRWf
    Whose side is Trump’s America on? The answer is becoming more and more obvious. Trump just doesn’t get it, says Simon Tisdall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/08/donald-trump-uk-visit-contempt-for-european-allies
    This week’s Urban Wronski leads with “Abbott’s subversion fails as Turnbull undermines a fair and just society”.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/07/08/abbotts-subversion-fails-as-turnbull-undermines-a-fair-and-just-society/
    Michael West tells us about the battle looming over the My Health Record system.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/07/08/abbotts-subversion-fails-as-turnbull-undermines-a-fair-and-just-society/
    ABC supporters including Kerry O’Brien and Magda Szubanski are rallying to ‘save’ broadcaster.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/08/abc-supporters-including-kerry-obrien-and-magda-szubanski-rally-to-save-broadcaster
    A good article from Australia’s Sex Discrimination Commissioner, Kate Jenkins, on how the world changed after the Harvey Weinstein revelations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-boarded-a-flight-in-britain-and-when-i-landed-the-world-had-changed-20180708-p4zq6x.html
    The former US secretary of state decries the global rise of authoritarianism in her new book, Fascism: A Warning, and talks about Trump, Putin and the ‘tragedy’ of Brexit
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/08/madeleine-albright-fascism-is-not-an-ideology-its-a-method-interview-fascism-a-warning
    Proposed changes in South Australia’s legislation on marijuana may have deeper consequences.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/sas-marijuana-crackdown-could-be-bad-news,11672
    Yet another lead in Adelaide’s missing Beaumont children case.
    https://outline.com/W47fdD
    The alcohol black market is ‘out of control’ in Queensland towns where it’s illegal to drink.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2018/07/08/alcohol-black-market-doomadgee-amp/
    As the NSW government holds out against banning lightweight plastic bags, a new plastic-free industry driven by innovative businesses and pro-active consumers is rapidly leaving our policy-makers and retailers behind.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/going-plastic-free-can-be-a-surprising-journey-20180629-p4zoo1.html
    In April, following a 10-week trial, Linc Energy Limited was found guilty by a jury of five counts of wilfully and unlawfully causing serious environmental harm at its underground coal gasification plant at Chinchilla in the western Darling Downs. Here are the details.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/linc-stink-queenslands-biggest-environmental-disaster,11673

    A rather sparse Cartoon Corner.

    David Rowe with a golden shower on NATO.

    And Rowe has done a portrait of Sam Neill, who loves it!

    Peter Broelman.

    A call to arms for Londoners.

    Pat Campbell on a civility rescue operation.

  7. Um, what the F??

    ‘A resolution to encourage breastfeeding was expected to be approved quickly and easily by the hundreds of government delegates who gathered this spring in Geneva for the United Nations-affiliated World Health Assembly.’

    ‘…American officials sought to water down the resolution…’

    ‘…Ecuador, which had planned to introduce the measure, was the first to find itself in the cross hairs.

    The Americans were blunt: If Ecuador refused to drop the resolution, Washington would unleash punishing trade measures and withdraw crucial military aid. The Ecuadorean government quickly acquiesced.’

    ‘…at least a dozen countries, most of them poor nations in Africa and Latin America, backed off, citing fears of retaliation, according to officials from Uruguay, Mexico and the United States.’

    ‘”What happened was tantamount to blackmail, with the US holding the world hostage and trying to overturn nearly 40 years of consensus on best way to protect infant and young child health,” she said.’

    ‘ It was the Russians who ultimately stepped in to introduce the measure — and the Americans did not threaten them.’

    ‘During the deliberations, some American delegates even suggested the United States might cut its contribution to the WHO…’

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/us-stuns-world-health-community-by-opposing-breastfeeding-20180709-p4zqau.html

  8. The ABC is currently ‘promoting’ NAIDOC week and supporting First Nations’ language.
    Who else would do that?

    Channel 7 is promoting fear of African migrants.

    No contest.

    .

  9. Rowan@FightingTories
    12h

    #SN7 #Ch7 running a RACIST campaign for PHON and the Vic liberals #NotMyAustralia
    Ch7 board member Jeff Kennett

  10. The former US secretary of state decries the global rise of authoritarianism in her new book,

    Ah sweet Madeline Albright. She who said 500,000 dead Iraqi children were ‘worth it”. :barf:

  11. rhwombat@7:26am
    “Crowe eats crow”. Not really. He is just reporting breakdown of previous 3 polls. It is no surprise knowing how the breakdown was in last 3 polls.
    We actually do not know how it is now and how it will be on by-election polling day although I hope ALP wins all its 4 seats.

  12. I am crossing my fingers that Labor will win the general election and put a halt to the NBN pseudo-rollout before I lose my current broadband service.

  13. Trump is expected to announce his Scotus nominee soon, and you can just imagine how rightwing reactionary that person will be, giving Republicans the potentially activist Supreme Court they’ve been wanting for decades.

    Monday night, before a national audience, the president is expected to hand a rose to his second nominee to the Supreme Court. The retirement of Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the court’s swing vote, gives Trump the chance to give conservatives the majority they worked decades to achieve. And that will give them a chance to take a sledgehammer to rights they abhor, from abortion to same-sex marriage.

    The nation remains appalled by Trump’s morally bankrupt “zero-tolerance” policy, which separated migrant children from their parents at the border and set up jails for babies. Now that his feckless administration is under court order to reunite the children with their parents, its sheer incompetence is plain for all to see. Just when you thought the callous disregard for these children couldn’t get any worse, the New York Times reported last week that “records linking children to their parents have disappeared, and in some cases have been destroyed.” And don’t forget that the Trump administration is going after naturalized U.S. citizens now, too.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/07/08/why-trumps-montana-rally-was-scarier-than-normal/?utm_term=.2c1433aeeec6

  14. I am no expert at all so this is just speculation but I suspect that this Thai rescue could have long term political ramifications.

    I seem to have been right in that the guy in charge has been wideley praised and people are calling for him to become PM

    Where is the King? Surely this is exactly the sort of situation where many wise and encouraging words from the king are well placed.

  15. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump

    The U.S. is working very closely with the Government of Thailand to help get all of the children out of the cave and to safety. Very brave and talented people!

    What a pity migrant children removed from their families don’t get the same attention from his govt!

  16. Go figure. England are in semi final of FIFA World cup taking place in Russia.

    I guess the death of person from nerve agent will not garner outcry just yet.

    Oh and not forgetting Trump is due to visit UK after telling all that Putin is just fine.

    Are we living in a black comedy?

  17. I would also suggest that America’s threats against Ecuador over the WHO motion demonstrates how little they care about Assange.

    I don’t think they’ve ever threatened any kind of trade sanctions over him.

  18. In multi religious, non religious society it has no place in a sectarian Parliament.

    It might be of some use if the hypocrites rebelling against the change actually took some notice of the words.

    But a general non religious statement and time for reflection seem more appropriate.

    Queensland LNP vows to fight ‘retrograde’ attempt to scrap Lord’s prayer
    Matt Canavan tells convention the party must oppose Greens’ push to abolish prayer from start of Senate sittings

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/08/queensland-lnp-senators-vow-to-fight-retrograde-attempt-to-scrap-lords-prayer

  19. When the group have all been rescued, I wonder if the Coach will explain why he took the children through a gap only a foot or so high, so many kilometres into the mountain.

  20. Lizzie

    They certainly are.

    I am fed up with the complicit media reporting Melbourne as having some uncontrollable crime wave.
    It gives me the pips

  21. zoomster:

    I suspect Ecuador regards Assange as an unnecessary headache and rue the day they granted him asylum much less actual citizenship.

  22. zoomster @ #14 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:43 am

    I would also suggest that America’s threats against Ecuador over the WHO motion demonstrates how little they care about Assange.

    I don’t think they’ve ever threatened any kind of trade sanctions over him.

    Zomster

    There has been a change of government in Ecuador. There was no point pressuring the original government and to be honest I cannot see Obama pressuring any nation of breast feeding.

    Trump himself was probably more likely to pressure the Ecuador govt to keep Assange, although the security mob may have other ideas.

    You seem not to understand how powerful the milk formular evils are in the USA. The resolution would threaten their markets in Africa and South America

    Disgusting scum.

  23. zoomster @ #25 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 5:43 am

    I would also suggest that America’s threats against Ecuador over the WHO motion demonstrates how little they care about Assange.

    I don’t think they’ve ever threatened any kind of trade sanctions over him.

    Baby formulae are a huge industry in the developing world you just need to go into a store to see the walls of cans stacked up waiting gullible buyers.

    I see it as a combination of cultural cringe and a fat baby is a healthy and affluent one. 🙁

  24. Victoria@8:41am
    Black comedy indeed. However, who died in England because of Nerve gas agent? Is that person Russian? Why there is no outcry from TMay about it accusing Russia? What is proof that Russia is involved with that attack?

  25. Victoria

    Labor leads the Coalition by 51 to 49 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in the survey of 1500 voters taken last week, maintaining the government’s election-winning lead by a slender margin.

    But on the key battleground issues of congestion, population pressures and crime, the Liberals have leads over Labor, with slightly more voters believing the opposition has the answers to the big questions facing the state.

    This is what I thought would happen. The temporary disruption from road and railworks beaten up by the Liberals, and CH7 exaggerating the ‘crime wave’. When police don’t support their fear campaign, media says “police reluctant to admit to the figures”.

  26. Victoria says:
    Monday, July 9, 2018 at 8:47 am
    Lizzie

    They certainly are.

    I am fed up with the complicit media reporting Melbourne as having some uncontrollable crime wave.
    It gives me the pips

    Amazingly, none of the violent crime in NSW has anything to do the Berejiklian government!

  27. ‘You seem not to understand how powerful the milk formular evils are in the USA’

    Er, not sure how you draw that conclusion.

  28. Ven

    England know Russia us responsible.
    As I said. England is in World cup right now.
    Not forgetting all the oligarch money that pours into London.
    The UK like others are hugely compromised.
    If a line is not drawn in the sand, Putin. Will continue to succeed in his quest to undermine Europe and its allies.
    I have been saying for a while that if anything of significance is to occur, it will happen after FIFA cup is over

  29. Zoomster@8:01am
    See Russia some times does good things when compared to US of A.
    This shows how US has reached in its morality and dealing with rest of the world under Drumpf.

  30. Lizzie/citizen

    Yep. And the crime in NSW is never reported as being a problem of the govt or its police force.
    It is obvious what the game has been from the media and its liberal luvvies.
    Fact that so many buy into it is very disappointing

  31. President Trump is expressing fresh interest in Judge Thomas M. Hardiman, the runner-up for last year’s Supreme Court vacancy, as he pushes his decision on a replacement for Justice Anthony M. Kennedy into the final hours before his self-imposed deadline of Monday night, three people close to the process said.

    And why?

    Judge Hardiman has also had an important supporter within the Trump family. He served with Judge Maryanne Trump Barry, Mr. Trump’s sister, on the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, in Philadelphia. Judge Barry recommended Judge Hardiman to her brother last year as a good choice for the court, according to two people close to Mr. Trump.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/us/politics/trump-supreme-court.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  32. I read last night that the coach took the kids deeper into the cave to escape the rising waters, looking for another way to escape it. Apparently they’d been in the caves before.

    I don’t know how accurate that is, but I’d be holding off with blame game.

  33. a r @ #26 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    lizzie @ #28 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:46 am

    I wonder if the Coach will explain why he took the children through a gap only a foot or so high, so many kilometres into the mountain.

    Character building.

    I suspect you are being unfair

    I thought they went through the gap BECAUSE they were trapped. There was I think what was thought to be a relatively safe “beach” but it too got flooded.

    If that is indeed the case the coach is to be praised for getting them through the gap to safety.
    I also gather that these caves are a popular hang out for the locals and all the boys do some exploring.

    The sign at the entrance said do not enter in JULY but it was in fact still June.

    We must not be so bloody culturally biased. They have not got the safety culture there as strongly as we do – look at the road safety figures. Note in the picture of the team only two wore bike helmets.

    Yes in Australia of today any coach who let kids even enter the caves would be a fool but go back to our parent’s generation and it would have been normal.

    Hey just think of the Famous Five books where the kids spent their holidays undergound with only Timmy the dog for protection – yes of course it is fiction but it was not considered unusual for kids to do that soort of risky thing.

    One series I adored as a kid (it was also approved by the literati set) was Swallows and Amazons. 6 kids spend their holidays boating BY THEMSELVES. This included an EIGHT year old. Neither mothers nor fathers were particularly worried.

    We have such a widely different perspective these days. I guess when kids could die of pneumonia or from a fall from a horse or in vehicle accidents, there was a different attitude to risk. The coach lost his entire family to an epidemic. If you family can die while staying safely at home what is a bit of caving?

  34. Holden Hibilly

    The wife of David Davis’s chief of staff is hinting at a leadership challenge. She writes for the Daily Express.

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