Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

Comments Page 2 of 43
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  1. jenauthor @ #36 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    I read last night that the coach took the kids deeper into the cave to escape the rising waters, looking for another way to escape it. Apparently they’d been in the caves before.

    I don’t know how accurate that is, but I’d be holding off with blame game.

    Agree Jen

    Read my last post.

  2. jenauthor @ #49 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 6:16 am

    I read last night that the coach took the kids deeper into the cave to escape the rising waters, looking for another way to escape it. Apparently they’d been in the caves before.

    I don’t know how accurate that is, but I’d be holding off with blame game.

    That is the logical scenario.

  5. HoldenH@9:03am
    Davis resignation: BBC reports TMay reportedly said that the Brexit approved by UK government Cabinet is the “right brexit”. LOL
    UK has agreed to almost all demands of EU like free flow of EU citizens into UK to work in UK (which was one of the most important issues of Brexit)

    https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-44761056?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fuk-politics-44761056

  6. Supposedly more resignations in the UK Cabinet. The Brexit Minister may have walked as well as Davis.

  7. Barney@8:46am
    “Multi religious”
    When Peter Costello was Treasurer, he said that Australia society is based on Judeo-Christian ethos.

  8. Great, so Brexit is in more chaos just as I was beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Will May survive this?

  9. BK
    Pathetic indeed. Someone should tell him that the point of the exercise is to laugh with the cartoonist. Not at him.

  10. Bonza

    The hard brexiteers are the genuine ‘give us what we want or we will wreck the joint’ mob. Same same Trump, Abbott and various other ultra right arse hat wreckers.

    The tragedy here is that Corbyn is aiding and abetting the wreckers: same same as the Greens and Sanders do.

  11. Ven @ #59 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 6:30 am

    Barney@8:46am
    “Multi religious”
    When Peter Costello was Treasurer, he said that Australia society is based on Judeo-Christian ethos.

    That’s the problem for many conservatives, they can not accept that what was once the reality in the the past is no longer so now!

  12. Bonza@9:39am
    Que?
    Why do you think Brexit is in more chaos than before?
    When Brexit means Chaos can you clarify why you saw “light at the end of the tunnel”?

  13. The Waffler from Wentworth: “What to do, what to do…. go early (and be gone early but with smaller losses)… or go later (and be gone later but with bigger losses)…. I can’t make up my mind yet….”

    …. and we are all here, waiting, as the Waffler from Wentworth makes up his confused mind….

  14. Ven
    I’ve been hoping that with Friday’s Chequers outcome, the govt had sorted out their division and was setting the scene for genuine progress with the EU at the October summit. Davis seems to be throwing a spanner back in the works. For me the light is getting some certainty for the GBP so I can get some money out of there at a decent exchange rate

  15. From an article in “The Age”

    “The protracted and stressful legal battle that was waged over two years between Mr Edwards and his former wife Olga, a Russian national, ended with him being denied access to his two children who lived full time with their mother at the address where they died”

  16. Ven et al

    Somehow I think that the whole EU is in trouble.

    It is NOT just UK where the people chose exit, largely (but not entirely) because of the immigration issue

    Merkel herself is in political trouble
    Several members may be expelled (or not allowed to vote) because of their increasingly anti democratic actions (Poland, Hungary ans Austria I think), Greece is a basket case and many there hate the EU for its economic policies. Italy has a government including anti EU party.

    Maybe the EU will be pared back to just Germany, France and Belgium and the Netherlands and maybe Ireland.

  19. Alpo @ #63 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    The Waffler from Wentworth: “What to do, what to do…. go early (and be gone early but with smaller losses)… or go later (and be gone later but with bigger losses)…. I can’t make up my mind yet….”

    …. and we are all here, waiting, as the Waffler from Wentworth makes up his confused mind….

    Trumble’s owners are only interested in minimising their impending losses. Trumble gets no say in it, and will go down with the ship – because that’s what he’s there for and there ain’t no one else whom the big money can trust (HIH anyone?). They will go as late as possible, because that maximises their ability to steal from the Commonwealth Treasury.

  20. The PM is under pressure from both sides of politics to establish a royal commission into retail electricity pricing.

    Now there’s a good one for Shorten to get onto to replace the banking royal commission which the Liberals after much kicking and screaming finally realised it was costing them too much politically not to do it.

    It would almost certainly have a high level of public support and reveal just what a dog’s breakfast the Liberals have made of the whole issue for purely political reasons. Not to mention all the problems that privatising the industry in various states has caused and the lies we were told at the time about all the alleged benefits it would bring – greater efficiency, costs going down etc. etc.

    I can’t see any down side for Labor. I hope Shorten gives it some consideration.

  21. Barney in Go Dau

    That’s the problem for many conservatives, they can not accept that what was once the reality in the the past is no longer so now!

    Senator Pattison inadvertently belled that cat this morning on RN when he was speaking of the need for religious protection ( well for xtians anyway). He spoke of how they used to be a ‘clear majority” but ‘not so much’ these days. Which apparently makes them worried about “not having as large a voice in society” as they once had. So there ya have it they are afraid of not being able to dictate to and impose upon society their religious points of view.

  22. Bonza says:

    Great, so Brexit is in more chaos just as I was beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel

    Unfortunately that light at the end of the tunnel you saw may be a train coming in the other direction.

  23. So the old man got himself a young Russian bride, she did well for herself – education, good job, financial independence etc. – then the marriage fell apart.

    It wouldn’t be a terribly uncommon story, except for the tragic outcome.

    Faced with old age and loneliness, he decided that no-one’s life was worth living, including that of his wife, whom he has condemned to a living hell.

    I’ve personally seen this before. Twenty-five years ago it happened to a Russian acquaintance (more a friend of a friend) of mine. She and her daughter were also murdered by the elderly Aussie husband.

    What a waste of beautiful lives.

  24. poroti @ #73 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:04 am

    Barney in Go Dau

    That’s the problem for many conservatives, they can not accept that what was once the reality in the the past is no longer so now!

    Senator Pattison inadvertently belled that cat this morning on RN when he was speaking of the need for religious protection ( well for xtians anyway). He spoke of how they used to be a ‘clear majority” but ‘not so much’ these days. Which apparently makes them worried about “not having as large a voice in society” as they once had. So there ya have it they are afraid of not being able to dictate to and impose upon society their religious points of view.

    I can feel the tears welling in my eyes.

    What a shame!!! 🙂

  25. I take a small amount of comfort in seeing that Channel Seven’s racist dog whistle rated poorly last night. It was comfortably beaten by 60 minutes, including in Melbourne. It was even beaten by the struggling Project on Ten.

  26. SKY is saying a ‘new poll shows labor making inroads against coalition in Braddon’

    Anybody know what this is???

  28. http://www.euronews.com/2018/05/23/eu-economy-growing-at-its-fastest-pace-in-a-decade

    “A welcome surprise”: Euro zone confidence picks up in June

    https://www.ft.com/content/b9bf6dda-7f66-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

    Eurozone pay rises a relief for unions and ECB. Economic recovery is spreading to wages and helping central bank’s inflation aims.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5dc7d2ea-7ea5-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/forget-trump-europe-plans-to-push-for-more-ambition-on-climate%3famp

  29. Guardian & Observer writer : Carole Cadwalladr‏

    Carole Cadwalladr‏Verified account

    America. Yours wasn’t the only election gamed.

    Brexit-Trump-Russia. Same Cambridge Analytica. Same Steve Bannon. Same Robert Mercer. Same Facebook. Same Russian ambassador. Same undisclosed meetings. Same offered business deals. One difference: you’ve got Mueller

  30. jenauthor

    Federal Labor is making inroads into the coalition’s lead in the upcoming by-election in the knife-edge Tasmanian seat of Braddon, new polling shows.

    The ReachTel survey of 700 voters for left-leaning think-tank The Australia Institute recorded a 3.3 per cent rise since June in Labor’s primary vote to 36.3 per cent, while the Liberals dropped 4.1 per cent to 42.9 per cent.

    The poll, taken ahead of the July 28 poll, also found nearly three in five voters want company tax increased or kept the same, while close to seven in 10 support keeping Sunday and public holiday penalty rates.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-cuts-liberal-lead-in-braddon-poll

  32. John Schindler
    ‏@20committee

    On Helsinki: the Russians will be recording all Trump-Putin conversations. They will release them on Moscow’s terms. IC officials HAD to have warned Trump about the massive risk he runs here, yet he’s doing it anyway.

    Now why would that be?

  33. Our great coalition in Victoria will win the next state election by a landslide and Matthew Guy will be a very good Preimer of our great state of Victoria and our great LNP will win the next federal election by a landslide and will win all three by elections to be on 28th July

  38. David Cox
    @davidcox74

    Trump: “You know President Putin is KGB… Putin is fine. He’s fine. We are all fine, we’re all people”

    Reporters killed by Putin:

  39. ‘Our great coalition in Victoria will win the next state election by a landslide…’

    Whew. I was worried about Labor’s chances before, this is reassuring.

    ‘… and will win all three by elections to be on 28th July’

    Only three?

  40. Wayne @ #82 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 11:16 am

    Our great coalition in Victoria will win the next state election by a landslide and Matthew Guy will be a very good Preimer of our great state of Victoria and our great LNP will win the next federal election by a landslide and will win all three by elections to be on 28th July

    Do you promise to resign from PB if the Liberal Party lose the by-elections on July 28? 🙂

  41. Cameron @ #80 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 10:59 am

    jenauthor

    Federal Labor is making inroads into the coalition’s lead in the upcoming by-election in the knife-edge Tasmanian seat of Braddon, new polling shows.

    The ReachTel survey of 700 voters for left-leaning think-tank The Australia Institute recorded a 3.3 per cent rise since June in Labor’s primary vote to 36.3 per cent, while the Liberals dropped 4.1 per cent to 42.9 per cent.

    The poll, taken ahead of the July 28 poll, also found nearly three in five voters want company tax increased or kept the same, while close to seven in 10 support keeping Sunday and public holiday penalty rates.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-cuts-liberal-lead-in-braddon-poll

    Oi! Wayne! Your mighty Liberal Party going totes amazeballs! 😀

  42. @Wayne, I still love your work. Some are born great, others have greatness thrust upon them. (wtte) Our great LNP needs all its happy little thrusters.

  45. Indigenous historian Bruce Pascoe has spent years looking through these incredible accounts and found the first white settlers documented how Aboriginal people built homes, villages, parks, dams and wells, selected seeds for harvesting, ploughed fields, irrigated crops and preserved food in vessels.
    …
    In his award-winning book, Dark Emu, which has inspired a new contemporary dance production at the Sydney Opera House, Mr Pascoe details fascinating journals of the early European explorers.
    They describe densely-populated Aboriginal villages up and down the country, some with sophisticated buildings made of large logs and clay plastering.
    They also describe how indigenous people produced grain surplus to requirement, stored it and used complex systems to preserve soil, water, wildlife and fish as well as native seeds, nuts, fruits and vegetables.

    Mr Pascoe says the settlers’ journals show Australia was a far more fertile land when they first landed than it is today and the vast area of the country we now consider an inhospitable desert was, in fact, meticulously and successfully managed by Aboriginal societies for thousands of years.
    But when Europeans landed, they brought foreign livestock which broke up the soil with their hoofs leading to soil erosion. Settlers also brought foreign crops and intensive farming techniques, later resorting to chemical fertilisation which Mr Pascoe argues has drained the land of its former fertility.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/indigenous-historian-bruce-pascoe-says-weve-got-our-story-all-wrong/news-story/70518cd1c35efd73c126ec0c19bb8281#.hif2m

  46. Federal Labor is making inroads into the coalition’s lead in the upcoming by-election in the knife-edge Tasmanian seat of Braddon, new polling shows.

    The ReachTel survey of 700 voters for left-leaning think-tank The Australia Institute recorded a 3.3 per cent rise since June in Labor’s primary vote to 36.3 per cent, while the Liberals dropped 4.1 per cent to 42.9 per cent.

    The poll, taken ahead of the July 28 poll, also found nearly three in five voters want company tax increased or kept the same, while close to seven in 10 support keeping Sunday and public holiday penalty rates.

    Looks like company tax cuts and penalty rates might yet bring the Liberals undone in Braddon. With a month still to go Labor has plenty of time to ensure everyone in the electorate gets the message. They are very good at that.

  47. ‘Every high school would have to employ science and maths teachers who have studied those subjects at a university level, under a new Federal Government plan to be announced today.’

    Um, does the government realise that the reason that every high school doesn’t do this is at present is because there aren’t enough teachers who have studied maths and science?

    You can’t boost supply by simply demanding that something which doesn’t exist is an essential.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/every-high-school-to-get-specialist-maths-science-teachers/9956880

  48. in a nutshell……………

    Carole Cadwalladr
    ‏
    Verified account

    @carolecadwalla
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Brexit-Trump-Russia. Same Cambridge Analytica. Same Steve Bannon. Same Robert Mercer. Same Facebook. Same Russian ambassador. Same undisclosed meetings. Same offered business deals. One difference: you’ve got Mueller

    51 replies 364 retweets 748 likes
    Reply 51 Retweet 364 Like 748

  49. Zoom – this govt has never been big on ‘process’ or cause and effect. It is a professional ‘announcement making’ outfit that has NO idea of the background or faoundations required for said announcement.

  50. @Darn
    Here in Braddon, Justine Keay’s face is just about everywhere.
    I’m not even sure who the LNP candidate is (it’s Whiteley) as they haven’t bothered removing the gambling industry funded LNP billboards from the previous state election. Likely to cause confusion at the ballot box.
    No such confusion for Keay / ALP

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