Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

Comments Page 3 of 43
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  1. Cameron @ #70 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 11:05 am

    John Schindler
    ‏@20committee

    On Helsinki: the Russians will be recording all Trump-Putin conversations. They will release them on Moscow’s terms. IC officials HAD to have warned Trump about the massive risk he runs here, yet he’s doing it anyway.

    Now why would that be?

    Cameron
    Have you shares in armament manufacturers.

    Why areyou so hot for a war.

    Surely it is a very, very, very good thing thatRussia and the USA talk to one another.

    Talking does not mean capitulation.

    War, war, war, is the song of the CIA robot.

  2. Question to William

    These aggregate polls include figuresobtained several months back. Does that not mean that some of the figures may be out of date and thus of suspect usefulness to a present day aggregate?

    Or are the aggregate figures statistically “massaged” before publication to take account of age?

  3. jenauthor @ #98 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 11:56 am

    Zoom – this govt has never been big on ‘process’ or cause and effect. It is a professional ‘announcement making’ outfit that has NO idea of the background or faoundations required for said announcement.

    And of course they are rarely, if ever asked any relevant questions about such matters.

  4. BB,

    Of course I defer to William, but my understanding is that he’s using a LOWESS method, that weights closer samples more than ones further in the past. Eventually the weights placed on samples far in the past are negligible, so they contribute close to nothing to the present-day estimate.

    In particular, with LOWESS, there is some polynomial discount factor applied to past samples, however choosing the parameters of these factors is but one aspect of William’s art – he pulls in a bunch of other tricks too!

  5. I may be wrong (often am!) but it seems to me that Birmingham expects things to change without Gov spending any actual dollars.

  6. Cameron @ #80 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:59 am

    jenauthor

    Federal Labor is making inroads into the coalition’s lead in the upcoming by-election in the knife-edge Tasmanian seat of Braddon, new polling shows.

    The ReachTel survey of 700 voters for left-leaning think-tank The Australia Institute recorded a 3.3 per cent rise since June in Labor’s primary vote to 36.3 per cent, while the Liberals dropped 4.1 per cent to 42.9 per cent.

    The poll, taken ahead of the July 28 poll, also found nearly three in five voters want company tax increased or kept the same, while close to seven in 10 support keeping Sunday and public holiday penalty rates.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-cuts-liberal-lead-in-braddon-poll

    Making the assumption those number are accurate it appears on face value that it will be tough for Labor to win. Has a breakdown been provided yet?

  7. Lizzie
    Interesting but how would they have ploughed fields? What ploughs? And who or what would have pulled the ploughs?

  8. LU not logged in @ #104 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    BB,

    Of course I defer to William, but my understanding is that he’s using a LOWESS method, that weights closer samples more than ones further in the past. Eventually the weights placed on samples far in the past are negligible, so they contribute close to nothing to the present-day estimate.

    In particular, with LOWESS, there is some polynomial discount factor applied to past samples, however choosing the parameters of these factors is but one aspect of William’s art – he pulls in a bunch of other tricks too!

    I wonder how the near uselessly small sample sizes in the small states will be accounted for?

  9. If you’re reading this with a tie around your neck, while you might look like the boss that you are, loosen it immediately. That’s the advice from scientists from University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein in Germany, who have made a disturbing finding relating to your office-place neckwear.
    According to the study, wearing a tie restricts the circulation of blood to the brain. To reach their conclusion, the scientists studied cerebral and jugular vein blood flow through MRI scans on 30 volunteers. The subjects were separated into two groups, one wearing neckties and the other with their necks free.

    https://www.menshealth.com.au/wearing-a-tie-cuts-the-circulation-to-your-brain?category=Life

  10. BW,
    The plough would have been pulled by kangaroos. The stump jump plough’s origins are seemingly much earlier than seen in the usual history books.

  11. @Grimace

    Labor would be very unlikely to hold on those numbers. However, they are far more encouraging than the early numbers coming out of Braddon and suggest to me Labor still has a fighting chance, something I didn’t think previously.

  12. Matt31 @ #112 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    @Grimace

    Labor would be very unlikely to hold on those numbers. However, they are far more encouraging than the early numbers coming out of Braddon and suggest to me Labor still has a fighting chance, something I didn’t think previously.

    Given the real world performance of seat level polling I do my best not to pay much attention to it, mostly unsuccessfully.

    Based on history and current overall TPP my prediction is for Labor to win comfortably in four of the five seats.

  13. I’m just back from a small community forum with Rebekha Sharkie (and Sen Stirling Griff who turned up unannounced). She is a good person and passionate representative of the seat of Mayo.
    I was singled out by an AAP reporter for an interview. I wonder how much of what I said will be reported.

  14. Victorian coalition opposition will win the state election in November by a landslide and Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and also the next election due in may 2020 and Turnbull will be the best PM since John Howard

  15. DTT,

    Nice straw man attempt.

    Have you forgotten what the Russians did in the 2016 US election? And Brexit? Have you forgotten that Russia annexed Crimea? Putin has killed journalists and an opposition leader that was due to expose the fact that he is one of the richest men in the world. Putin and his oligarch’s are worth billions yet most Russians live in poverty. How about that Putin is a stone cold killer and a thuggish dictator? That Putin just poisoned people in Britain? Putin is terrified of democracy and a democratic uprising in his own country. Putin is motivated by cultivating paranoia of the US and the West and stomping down on any chance of democracy in Russia. Do you understand that Russia has a state run media? That the average monthly Russian wage is $450 US a month – less than China? Putin has never got over Hillary Clinton calling out him presiding over dodgy Russian elections in 2011. Watch this documentary by the brilliant Fareed Zakaria to understand:

    http://www.yousubtitles.com/The-Power-of-Putin-Documentary-2017-BBC-Documentary-id-935761

    I’m all for bipartisan diplomacy, but why is Trump looking to deal away US national interests to North Korea and or Russia and giving them what they want? The Republican party has been lobotomised to think it’s OK for Trump to attack the free press, to attack the justice system, to attack minorities, to undermine the notion of objective truth, to attack the US’s allies, to attack NATO (the greatest peace keeping organisation the world has known), to attack the UN and Human Rights and pull out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. All of this is what Putin wants. Trump and the Republicans are a wholly owned subsidiary of Putin.

    Michael McFaul
    ‏@McFaul
    In last 2 weeks Trump has invited Russia to join G7, denied Russian interference in 2016 election, hinted at recognizing Crimean annexation, pulling out of Syria & reducing US troops in Germany. In return for these monumental concessions Trump has asked Putin to do…? #Artofdeal

    Donald Trump’s talking points on Crimea are the same as Vladimir Putin’s

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/07/03/donald-trumps-talking-points-on-crimea-are-the-same-as-vladimir-putins/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c4b9cf9eb0c4

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/russia-uses-gop-moscow-trip-spin-narrative-trump-putin-summit-2018-7

    Duma member Vyacheslav Nikonov added on Tuesday that he’s met with many American lawmakers before, but this week’s meeting “was one of the easiest ones in my life.”

    Congratulations to these seven GOP lawmakers. It’s not easy to generate mockery in two hemispheres simultaneously, but they managed to find a way.

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/republican-lawmakers-face-russian-mockery-following-moscow-trip

  16. And this latest piece ties in the Brexit saga

    Carole Cadwalladr
    Carole Cadwalladr
    @carolecadwalla
    ·
    2h
    America. Yours wasn’t the only election gamed. Same players. Same companies. Same data. Same Facebook. Same Russians.
    Raju Narisetti
    @raju
    And over in Britain. @guardian: Electoral law has been broken – this is a fight for the soul of our democracy (link: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/08/electoral-law-broken-fight-for-soul-of-democracy) theguardian.com/politics/2018/…? by @carolecadwalla

  17. BK

    I guess it will depend on what you said. If you spoke in glowing terms of the Liberal candidate, it is a shoe in to get reported!
    Lol..

  18. ‘Bennelong Lurker says:
    Monday, July 9, 2018 at 12:32 pm

    BW,
    The plough would have been pulled by kangaroos. The stump jump plough’s origins are seemingly much earlier than seen in the usual history books.’

    Skippygronomics

  19. People who criticise the coach of the soccer team caught in the cave in Thailand, are speaking from their
    own culture. Their culture is kids wrapped in cotton wool, never exposed to risk and sueing anyone who lets a tear form in their kids eye.

    I think these kids are more resilient and tougher than we give them credit for, and unless there sudden change in conditions I think they will be saved.

    I noticed a report that said parents did not blame the coach, and going into the cave is not unusual. This is a change from our witch hunt, trial by media then ‘hang the monkey’approach to things.

  20. Extremely well summed up Cameron. I just can’t fathem the Putin appologists on here. Until he changes his behaviour Russia needs to be sanctioned and isolated, as opposed to being given the red carpet treatment from the Trump administration. Putin well knows he has a puppet in the Whitehouse; until that changes his behaviour will not change.

  21. Rubbish.

    For turning the soil they needed a sturdy, burrowing animal.

    That’s why we have a Wombat Economy.

    It’s not for nothing that former Secretary of the Department of Treasury Ken Henry took leave to secure the future of the Hairy Nosed variety.

  22. PhoenixRed

    Thanks for posting!
    It covers most of the saga that is known.
    I’ve always believed if the whole truth comes out, it will shock people to their core.

  23. Victoria says: Monday, July 9, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Thanks for posting!
    It covers most of the saga that is known.
    I’ve always believed if the whole truth comes out, it will shock people to their core.

    *****************************************

    The linking of people and connections is way too involved to be just some casual meetings of coincidences ….

    I am not sure it will shock everyone in the US – I see an increasing number of GOP candidates openly stating that they are Holocaust Deniers FFS !!! ……..

    ( incidentally off track – how are you adjusting to climate change ? 🙂 )

  24. lizzie @ #94 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 11:45 am

    ….

    In his award-winning book, Dark Emu, which has inspired a new contemporary dance production at the Sydney Opera House, Mr Pascoe details fascinating journals of the early European explorers.
    They describe densely-populated Aboriginal villages up and down the country, some with sophisticated buildings made of large logs and clay plastering.
    They also describe how indigenous people produced grain surplus to requirement, stored it and used complex systems to preserve soil, water, wildlife and fish as well as native seeds, nuts, fruits and vegetables.

    ….

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/indigenous-historian-bruce-pascoe-says-weve-got-our-story-all-wrong/news-story/70518cd1c35efd73c126ec0c19bb8281#.hif2m

    Bangarra Dance
    Dark Emu

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BZP8883q4w&feature=youtu.behttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BZP8883q4w&feature=youtu.be

  25. Russia’s opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, was one of about 1,600 of people detained by police during nationwide protests before Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fourth presidential term.

    Navalny, 41, was arrested by police shortly after joining thousands of protesters at Moscow’s Pushkin Square, a short distance from the Kremlin. Officers carried the government critic from the landmark square by his arms and legs as he struggled and angry opposition supporters jeered and shouted. A police helicopter circled low, almost drowning out chants of “Putin is a thief! and “Down with the tsar!”

    After the arrest, police said Navalny was arrested for disobeying police, an offence punishable by up to 15 days behind bars. He spent two months in prison last year on protest-related charges.

    Navalny was barred from standing over a fraud conviction that he says was trumped up to prevent him from challenging Putin at the ballot box. Russian authorities have also twice refused to allow the Kremlin critic to register a political party that could field candidates at parliamentary elections.

    Moscow’s protest was the biggest in the Russian capital since last year, when opposition supporters repeatedly took to the streets in large numbers over allegations of massive corruption against Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister.

    Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s deputy director for eastern Europe and central Asia, said:

    “The forceful dispersal of today’s opposition demonstrations is outrageous. The Russian authorities once again refused to authorise protest rallies, and then used this ban to crackdown on those gathered in Moscow and elsewhere.

    “But what is worse is the total police inaction, which allowed the beating of protesters by unknown men in Moscow. On what grounds people in ‘Cossack’ uniforms were allowed to use force remains a question.”

    Although demonstrations will have made unpleasant viewing for Putin just two days before his inauguration and six weeks before the World Cup kicks off in Moscow, the protests were far from the scale and intensity of the 2014 revolt in neighbouring Ukraine or the massive demonstrations that forced Armenia’s prime minister, Serzh Sargsyan, from office last month.

    The protests were also far smaller than the rally that took place in central Moscow before Putin’s inauguration for a third term in May 2012. That was attended by tens of thousands of people and ended with violent clashes between riot police and protesters. Almost 500 people were arrested and it signalled the end of the Russian opposition’s anti-Putin coalition. “They ruined my big day. Now I’m going to ruin their lives,” Putin reportedly said after the 2012 protest, according to opposition figures citing Kremlin insiders.

    Saturday’s opposition protests proved once again that Navalny has the ability to bring relatively large numbers of people on to the streets, but they also underlined that he has not experienced a groundswell of popular support that makes him a serious threat to Putin’s long-term grip on power. His supporters say that is partly because he is banned from state television, which carries out regular smear campaigns against Kremlin critics. Navalny has been accused by national television of working with the United States and Britain to bring down Putin, a claim that he has laughed off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/05/russian-police-arrest-more-than-200-anti-putin-protesters-siberia

  26. zoomster @ #96 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:50 am

    ‘Every high school would have to employ science and maths teachers who have studied those subjects at a university level, under a new Federal Government plan to be announced today.’

    Um, does the government realise that the reason that every high school doesn’t do this is at present is because there aren’t enough teachers who have studied maths and science?

    You can’t boost supply by simply demanding that something which doesn’t exist is an essential.

    They’re taking lessons from the Vietnamese Government.

    Every few years here they have a crackdown on the qualifications for foreign English teachers.

    You’re meant to have a CELTA equivalent certificate and a Bachelor degree.

    Schools get raided and teachers are removed but then the reality sets in that there are not enough qualified teachers so they go back to employing anyone, this is especially true of the more dodgy operators who care little for the academic standards of their school.

  27. Puffytmd @ #132 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    People who criticise the coach of the soccer team caught in the cave in Thailand, are speaking from their
    own culture. Their culture is kids wrapped in cotton wool, never exposed to risk and sueing anyone who lets a tear form in their kids eye.

    I think these kids are more resilient and tougher than we give them credit for, and unless there sudden change in conditions I think they will be saved.

    I noticed a report that said parents did not blame the coach, and going into the cave is not unusual. This is a change from our witch hunt, trial by media then ‘hang the monkey’approach to things.

    Yep, the conversation here last night highlighted your point where some posters were applying their own cultural standards which are largely irrelevant in Asia. 🙂

  28. citizen @ #39 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    Victoria says:
    Monday, July 9, 2018 at 8:47 am
    Lizzie

    They certainly are.

    I am fed up with the complicit media reporting Melbourne as having some uncontrollable crime wave.
    It gives me the pips

    Amazingly, none of the violent crime in NSW has anything to do the Berejiklian government!

    Didn’t you know that it was the African Gangs from Victoria that made that mild-mannered Financial Planner from Normanhurst in NSW murder his two teenage children the other day? You know it makes Murdochian sense!

    *sarcasmalert*

  29. Barney

    If the kids in the cave thing happened here everybody would blame Shorten.

    I give the Thai authorities a tick for yesterday’s move to get the media well away.

  30. Their culture is kids wrapped in cotton wool, never exposed to risk

    I will never get used to the feeling of dread I get every time my young children set off on the short walk to school.

    Culture is a powerful thing.

  31. It’s hardly a surprise that Putin is still relatively popular in Russia. He has expertly crafted a nationalistic, strongman image together with a message that “he protects Russians from the West”. More like a continuation of a centuries old self-perpetuating paranoid persecution syndrome that the West is out to get them. Of course it helps when you have a state run media that will not run a single word of what any opposition figures have to say. Not to mention Putin murders journalists who dare to tell the truth, as well as Opposition leader Boris Nemstov, who was almost certainly murdered by Putin’s orders in 2015. Everyone is terrified to speak out about Putin and the corruption in Russia.

    Ahead of a Fake Election, Russia Remembers the Murder of a Real Opposition Leader

    The truth, of course, is that Nemtsov—like Politkovskaya—was a threat to Putin and his cronies, giving them every motive to silence him. His grassroots political activism helped expose the Kremlin’s military intervention in eastern Ukraine, the embezzlement of more than $25 billion during the Sochi Olympics, and large-scale corruption within the powerful state-owned energy company Gazprom. A former deputy prime minister and member of parliament, Nemtsov was a charismatic and talented liberal politician who had long been an implacable foe of Putin’s consolidation of power, and one of the few honest politicians who did not amass wealth while in office.

    A pattern of violence and impunity

    Nemtsov’s murder was not an isolated incident in Russia. Since Putin’s controversial return to the presidency in 2012 after a stint as prime minister, the Kremlin has amplified its attacks against dissenting voices, creating a hostile atmosphere through restrictive legislation, tighter state control over the media, and crackdowns on civil society and human rights defenders. Many of Putin’s critics have been forced to leave the country or cease their activity.

    With recent amendments to legislation governing freedom of assembly, the state has effectively criminalized political dissent, imposing disproportionately harsh fines for participation in unsanctioned protests and prison sentences for event organizers. After nationwide anticorruption protests in March, June, and November 2017, the authorities detained hundreds of protesters, imposing fines, jail terms, and community work. Critics are also routinely accused of “extremism,” a blanket term that can be applied arbitrarily to stifle and punish unwelcome speech, much like Soviet-era practices in which dissidents were labeled “enemies of the people.”

    Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s propaganda machine has vilified civil society and demonized the opposition, presenting them as a pro-Western fifth column working to destroy Russia from within. The country’s beleaguered independent media lack the means and reach to counter the state’s ubiquitous narrative, allowing smears of political activists and human rights defenders to go largely unchallenged.

    In this climate of hostility, violent attacks against the targets of such media campaigns are greeted with indifference by the authorities. More often than not, law enforcement officials blame the violence on personal grievances and downplay the likelihood of a political motive.

    Among other assaults over the past year, opposition activist Ivan Skripnichenko died in a hospital in August after being attacked while guarding a makeshift memorial at the site of Nemtsov’s murder on the Bolshoy Moskvoretsky Bridge. In September, Nikolay Lyaskin, head of opposition leader Aleksey Navalny’s presidential campaign in Moscow, was assaulted with a metal bar. In December, environmental activist Andrey Rudomakha was severely beaten in Krasnodar. Unknown assailants brutally killed the St. Petersburg activist Konstantin Sinitsyn, a regular participant in prodemocracy and anticorruption demonstrations, in January of this year. A month later, Open Russia activist Oleg Maksakov was beaten outside his house in St. Petersburg. And the list goes on.

    https://freedomhouse.org/blog/ahead-fake-election-russia-remembers-murder-real-opposition-leader

  32. I’ve actually been very surprised by the amount of airtime and column-inches devoted in the Australian media to the kids trapped in a cave in a country that is not English-speaking or even of European culture. Normally a disaster has to affect many thousands in a poor Asian country before we even have a sniff of interest.

  33. PhoenixRed

    Been easy enough to adjust to the cooler weather since coming back from summer.
    Whilst I enjoyed the Italian adventure, was happy to come home to winter.

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