The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.
The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).
All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.
Trump’s not my Pres
@Nysteveo2AOLcom
Air Force One on approach to London this morning:
Good night! 🙂
No, no, I meant what area of Law.
Just when I was entertaining high hopes for you ….
In other news, and completely unrelated to any recent topics of discussion on PB, I have it on good authority from members of another discussion forum that I frequent, that at least one major (in the forum’s field of interest) UK retailer has ignored the Australian Government’s request that they become GST collectors, and that ATO/Borderfarce still aren’t interested in levying the GST at point of delivery. As a result, untaxed low-value imports still seem to be happening in practice, whatever legislation may say.
Still, hopefully it’ll keep Gerry Harvey off the TV for a while.
Sorry, 2 more I just had to share:
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
How ridiculous is the objective to have defence spending at 2% of GDP. Why not 1% or 3%? Surely it depends on what is required… in peace times, like now, it should be low, when there’s a war, it should be higher. Another stupid made up policy aim that means nothing.
and
The Hill
@thehill
Trump says not much he can do even if Putin admits to election meddling: All I can say is “Don’t do it again” http://hill.cm/9elSAIb
May as well remove the sanctions then! *sigh*
The childish simplicity of Trump’s rationales masks their evil intent very well.
Donnie Darko is a stunning, thrilling, brilliant movie. I saw a special screening of it at Luna Cinemas.
The Intellectual Bogan says:
Friday, July 13, 2018 at 12:09 am
In other news, and completely unrelated to any recent topics of discussion on PB, I have it on good authority from members of another discussion forum that I frequent, that at least one major (in the forum’s field of interest) UK retailer has ignored the Australian Government’s request that they become GST collectors, and that ATO/Borderfarce still aren’t interested in levying the GST at point of delivery. As a result, untaxed low-value imports still seem to be happening in practice, whatever legislation may say.
___________
I am delighted to hear it. There is nothing in it to the advantage of the retailer to become de facto tax collectors for someone they have no relationship with.
I hope that it becomes the norm, that retailers around give the finger to the Australian Government so far as acting as tax collectors. What is in it for them?
I’m sure if he applied to Centrelink, they would treat his case favourably.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/damien-mantachs-father-letter-liberal-party-debt-waive/9984818
Report reveals how shady Russian cash flowed through Trump’s Toronto hotel
A major investigation conducted by the Financial Times reveals how shady Russian cash flowed through the financial of President Donald Trump’s Toronto hotel — and, ultimately, back to the president himself.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/bombshell-report-reveals-shady-russian-cash-flowed-trumps-toronto-hotel/
FBI agent Peter Strzok slams Trump’s ‘witch hunt’ conspiracy — and blasts GOP as Russian pawns
FBI agent Peter Strzok admitted he could have derailed President Donald Trump’s campaign by revealing the investigation into possible Russian collusion — but he never considered doing that.
Strzok, whose anti-Trump texts with fellow agent Lisa Page have fueled Trump’s “witch hunt” claims, issued a statement ahead of his congressional testimony Thursday about his alleged partisan bias, reported the Associated Press.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/fbi-agent-peter-strzok-blows-trumps-witch-hunt-conspiracy-blasts-gop-russian-pawns/
Judge says Manafort’s new jail is ‘very familiar’ with housing ‘spies and traitors’
US. District Court Judge T.S. Ellis II on Thursday ordered former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort to be moved to a jail in Alexandra, Virginia because it has experience housing “spies and traitors.”
According to Politico, Manafort was booked into the Alexandria facility on Thursday. The transfer comes after Manafort bragged about his “VIP” treatment at Northern Neck Regional Jail.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/judge-says-manaforts-new-jail-familiar-housing-spies-traitors/
I didn’t really believe this when I read it.
Rick Wilsons latest takes apart the Peter Strozk Congressional hearing
Republicans Thought Peter Strozk Would Be a Punching Bag. He Just Knocked Them Out.
The agent was supposed to be a key in the imaginary conspiracy Trump’s congressional lackeys and media fantasists have desperately tried to write as history. He had none of it.
Donald Trump’s Congressional enablers, sycophants,and political suckups wanted a punching bag, but Peter Strzok instead delivered one of the rarest of moments
Strzok was supposed to be a key in the imaginary conspiracy that Trump’s congressional lackeys and media fantasists have desperately tried to write as history. The idea that his text messages poison the entire Mueller investigation was a pillar of their defense of the President. This morning they were going for a quick kill. They needed Strzok to flail, and wilt. The Gowdy Goodlatte and Gaetz types needed their grandstanding, dick-waving mock outrage to leave Strozk shaking and begging for mercy.
Strozk had none of it. In this morning’s round he left the Trumpists of the House staggered in their corner, cut and shaky, wondering where Stozok learned to hit back that hard.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-thought-peter-strozk-would-be-a-punching-bag-he-just-knocked-them-out?ref=scroll
Morning all. Rick Wilson’s latest.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-thought-peter-strozk-would-be-a-punching-bag-he-just-knocked-them-out
phoenixRed:
And as per usual his writing is highly entertaining!
The reports of Trump’s visit to the UK will be interesting. He has already said that “the people like me” and that his NATO visit was a huge success. What other fantasies will he come up with?
The Peter Strzok fiasco wrecks the GOP’s bogus conspiracy theory
There are times when you watch what’s happening in American politics and come to believe you’ve fallen through the rabbit hole, to a place where everything is upside down. Today was one of those times
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/07/12/the-peter-strzok-fiasco-wrecks-the-gops-bogus-conspiracy-theory/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.90d6734e74e6
Some background on the ‘boning’ of Big Barry
‘Multiple sources have told The Australian that Mr Littleproud, who unsuccessfully jockeyed to replace Barnaby Joyce after he quit in December as deputy prime minister and Nationals leader over his extramarital affair with an aide, lobbied Liberal National Party delegates to dump Senator O’Sullivan.
Mr Littleproud denied emphatically that he had gone in to bat for businesswoman Susan McDonald, who stunningly edged out senator Ian Macdonald by a single vote in the preselection ballot at the LNP State Council last Friday. “I did not phone any LNP member to canvass support for either O’Sullivan or McDonald,” he said last night. “Any suggestion otherwise is garbage.”
But senior LNP figures were adamant that Mr Littleproud had sought to sway delegates away from Senator O’Sullivan, 61, an outspoken conservative who pushed for a royal commission into the banks when Malcolm Turnbull, Treasurer Scott Morrison and other high-ranking ministers were publicly resisting the inquiry.
In one case, Mr Littleproud was said to have asked an LNP identity to tell Senator O’Sullivan that he should retire. The identity said he had not done so, but declined to be named or to elaborate when contacted yesterday.
Mr Littleproud, 41, has been styled as a “new Nat” since being promoted into the agriculture portfolio and elevated to cabinet, relaxing what was a hard line under Mr Joyce of talking down the impact of climate change.’
The ousting of the two regional senators — Senator Macdonald lives in the sugar town of Ayr south of Townsville, while Senator O’Sullivan is from Toowoomba, west of Brisbane — has provoked bitter recriminations and claims that the LNP is abandoning the Nationals’ traditional heartland in the country and regional centres. The party was formed a decade ago when the Coalition partners merged in Queensland. At the federal level, LNP MPs and senators sit in either the Liberal or Nationals partyroom.
Manafort’s mug shot as he was taken into a jail.
:large
Confessions says: Friday, July 13, 2018 at 7:04 am
phoenixRed:
And as per usual his writing is highly entertaining!
*********************************************
His writings are always a brilliant mix of information – with a lot of funny and entertaining passages
Its just a pity that other GOP followers do not face up to the reality about anything Trump with the same honesty and integrity of guys like GOP stalwarts Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt
Some non-recriminations from the imploding QLD LNP, the gift that keeps on giving..
‘But old-school Nationals say their influence has been eclipsed by city-based progressives aligned with the Liberal Party. “What we saw last Friday was the old guard that controlled the party lose control,” an informed source said. “They lost control of the floor of state council because most of the delegates there were from the southeast … it was a poke in the eye for the bush and north Queensland.”
A federal Nationals MP said it was known that Mr Littleproud had canvassed for Ms McDonald to take the No 2 spot on the LNP Senate ticket in Queensland at Senator O’Sullivan’s expense. Ms McDonald, the 48-year-old daughter of former Queensland and federal Nationals president Don McDonald, was supported by the LNP’s women’s division and Young LNP delegates when she clinched the position by 121-120 votes over Senator O’Sullivan at the LNP state council in Brisbane, which was attended by Mr Turnbull last weekend. The Prime Minister was not present for the preselection vote.’
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe says there’s an election coming, but neither side is ready for it.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/stateless-and-poor-some-thai-boys-in-cave-already-beat-long-odds-20180711-p4zqrm.html
According to David Wroe more than 165 power plants, gas works, water facilities and ports have been identified as critical enough to the nation that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton can step in and compel the operators to improve their defences against sabotage and spying.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sabotage-laws-give-dutton-new-powers-over-energy-port-facilities-20180712-p4zr3d.html
On the ACCC report the SMH editorial pleads that what is needed is not a repair job on the whole electricity market but a clear decision on climate change policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/fix-climate-policy-to-fix-electricity-market-20180712-p4zr06.html
David Crowe distils the ACCC report and what the government might do.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-the-latest-idea-in-australia-s-energy-debate-really-a-lifeline-for-coal-20180712-p4zr6c.html
Meanwhile Rod Sims has dismissed suggestions a landmark energy report he issued on Wednesday backed government support for coal, as Coalition figures used the claim to push public subsidies for a new coal-fired power plant to solve Australia’s energy crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/accc-rejects-coal-fired-power-support-claims-20180712-p4zr5z.html
Snowy Hydro’s biggest storage dam has fallen to less than 25 per cent capacity due to poor rains and high electricity generation following the closure of the Hazelwood coal power station in Victoria.
https://outline.com/9bTVee
Adam Creighton reports that The Australian superannuation industry has extracted more than $700bn in fees compared with what super funds charge overseas.
https://outline.com/HJrqA3
The incoming Treasury secretary, Liberal staffer Phil Gaetjens, has been described as having a “brilliant brain”, but his appointment has raised eyebrows in Canberra reports Jess Irvine.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/eyebrows-raised-over-treasury-secretary-appointment-20180712-p4zr5u.html
The London Telegraph’s Michael Deacon says Trump remind people of the ranting drunk on the bus.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/when-the-ranting-drunk-on-the-bus-is-the-most-powerful-man-on-earth-20180712-p4zqym.html
David Littleproud has been accused of working the numbers to axe influential Queensland LNP senator Barry O’Sullivan in a preselection boilover, deepening divisions between an “old guard” faction and progressives in the Nationals.
https://outline.com/mrw2Lm
Greg Jericho shows how new data shows the jobs surge is partly due to workers taking second jobs to make ends meet.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jul/12/low-wages-growth-means-work-is-nice-if-you-can-get-it-twice
The AFR’s James Thompson has a look at the big changes ahead for the NAB.
https://outline.com/pyjtbR
David Gruber tells us about the truth bomb dropped by the departing John Fraser on Trump’s trade war.
https://outline.com/FvGxNC
Jenna Price tells us what real men look like. And it’s definitely not like David Leyonhjelm.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-real-men-look-like-20180712-h12l76.html
NAB economists have downgraded their property price forecasts and say sentiment toward property has dropped to a two-year low.
https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/australias-house-price-outlook-worsens-nab-anz-20180712-h12kye-752029/?utm_campaign=featured-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link
A good contribution from Catharine McGregor on the push to “protect” religion.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/thanks-for-your-concern-but-my-religion-is-not-in-need-of-protection-20180712-p4zr3t.html
And Michelle Grattan sees little upside for Malcolm Turnbull in the debate over religious freedom.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-little-upside-for-malcolm-turnbull-in-debate-over-religious-freedom-99880
Gary Younge writes that for Theresa May, the ‘special relationship’ with the US means craven compliance
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/12/theresa-may-special-relationship-craven-compliance-donald-trump
Dave Donavan concludes his examination of Turnbull’s philanthropy.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-the-figjam-philanthropist-part-two,11686
An Iranian refugee and her 17-year-old son, both acutely physically and mentally ill on Nauru, will be brought to Australia after winning a federal court order to be moved to high-level medical care. It is at least the ninth legal challenge won for medical intervention from Australia’s offshore processing regime. Chalk up another court loss to the Tuber.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/13/court-orders-nauru-refugee-and-son-both-ill-to-be-flown-to-australia
Ben Doherty says that the government is playing a dangerous game with the lives of refugee children.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/11/each-time-australia-delays-bringing-a-sick-child-from-nauru-the-stakes-get-higher
The Tax Office may owe businesses up to $300 million in interest on overpaid GST after it lost a Federal Court case, which advisers said was one of the most significant in 20 years.
https://outline.com/yjaHp7
And more than a million ordinary Australian taxpayers on wages or salaries will be sprung with a random review of their tax return, the Australian Tax Office has warned.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2018/07/12/one-million-taxpayers-face-random-audit-ato/
In a ripper riposte Borat bites back at Palin.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jul/12/sacha-baron-cohen-sarah-palin-who-is-america-tv-show-veteran-response
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe takes to the skies over London with a fart-propelled Trump.
Mark David and vanity politics.
Peter Broelman wraps up the cave rescue.
Glen Le Lievre on poles and wires.
Jon Kudelka and the rescued cave boys.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8f52424f8d07d79efdfa7ffafb010d94
There’s a few in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-13-2018-20180712-h12m9z.html
lizzie @ #1861 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 6:59 am
Such a whimsical way of getting to the heart of the matter. Bless her cotton socks! 🙂
Confessions says: Friday, July 13, 2018 at 7:17 am
Manafort’s mug shot as he was taken into a jail.
*******************************************
Bit different to the coiffured figure in thousand dollar suits and shoes
Seeing that he has totally pissed off Judge Ellis with sneaky tricks of e-mails and boasts of his VIP treatment – then he is going to look a lot worse after a few weeks in his new jail surroundings designed to cater for ‘spies and traitors’
lizzie @ #1861 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 3:59 am
Maybe the evidence is too much to deny and they’re having difficulty coming up with a reason to sweep it under the carpet. 🙂
It seems the other two women arrested with Stormy Daniels didn’t have their charges dropped, proving yet again that if you can afford or can acquire high profile or top legal defence the justice system delivers very different outcomes for you.
Stormy’s donating the tips from her performance towards the legal costs for the other two women.
phoenixRed:
I cannot fathom why Manafort would twice try contacting witnesses against a court ruling unless he knows Trump will pardon him of any convictions.
Just on the FBI conspiracy matter, there are alternate facts…
‘Strzok, throughout it all, remained defiant and maintained that he did not show bias in those infamous messages with former FBI lawyer Lisa Page.
Republicans sharply disputed that assessment, with Rep. Darrell Issa later making Strzok read examples of those texts aloud. Among them, Strzok read one message where he called Trump a “disaster,” and another calling him an “idiot.”
The initial contempt threat surfaced after House Oversight Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., questioned “how many witnesses” Strzok interviewed before an August 2016 text from Strzok to Page stating “we’ll stop” then-candidate Trump from becoming president.
Strzok said he was not able to answer the question based on instructions from FBI counsel. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., rejected Strzok’s claim.
“Mr. Strzok, you are under subpoena and required to answer the question,” Goodlatte said. ’
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/12/fireworks-at-strzok-hearing-as-gop-reps-fume-at-anti-trump-fbi-agent-threaten-contempt.html
Good article on the enigmatic Michael Avenatti
The Fast and Furious Michael Avenatti
In representing the porn star Stormy Daniels, the lawyer thinks he can bring down a president — one cable-news appearance at a time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/magazine/michael-avenatti-stormy-daniels-donald-trump-media.html
lizzie @ #1861 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 6:59 am
The difficulty is finding the person with the least political capital and knowledge of where the skeletons are buried to be the scapegoat.
Perhaps someone could tell the Potato that his reign will not last for ever. He’s in the wrong fight.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-death-sentence-afghanistans-highlands-21715?utm_source=feedburner//u0026utm_medium=feed//u0026utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climatecentral%2FdjOO+Climate+Central+-+Full+Feed/
Catherine McGregor hits the right spot in her criticism of Shelton and Bernardi..
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/thanks-for-your-concern-but-my-religion-is-not-in-need-of-protection-20180712-p4zr3t.html
The Christian Soldiers, within and without politics and parliament, are going to have a hard time squaring the circle over how you allow victimisation of Muslims, but not Christians or Jews.
Re: The Kouk:
“How ridiculous is the objective to have defence spending at 2% of GDP. Why not 1% or 3%? Surely it depends on what is required… in peace times, like now, it should be low, when there’s a war, it should be higher. Another stupid made up policy aim that means nothing.”
Kouk should stick to economics. It takes years to acquire appropriate defence materiel and sometimes decades to properly integrate those assets with other defence assets. Increased defence spending in times of war to train an deploy infrantry battalions is all well and good (and in fact under the Australian Armies brigade restructure – Plan Bethseeba, rapidly increasing the combat readiness of reserve brigades in times of war is already factored in), but in terms of Armoured Support, Logistic infrastructure, UAVs, manned and unmanned close air support, air interdiction capabilities, air and ambibious transport, blue water and littoral navy, satelites etc etc you cant just switch the light on and possess the necessary assets required, even if yo don’t possess a sovereign defence industry – in fact especially if you dont possess such an industry (because ‘off the shelf’ aquisitions often take even longer to acquire, esepcially if they are being brought from allies that are also ramping up for war).
That said, the 2% rule, is a pretty bad one to have – if a nation’s economy is sluggish the figure might be as high as 2.5%, but if the economy is powering along a 1.5% defence spend might be sufficient.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/07/11/california-will-have-a-terrible-choice-save-cliff-side-homes-or-public-beaches-from-rising-seas/?utm_term=.46fc746be5a0
And the visuals are already compelling evidence of this.
The defence spending will flow through to the American companies manufacturing armaments equipments technical support etc. this should help US growth.
Royals meet Bernese mountain dogs of Irish president.
Cute
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zipruMy3IR0
Check out all the essentially homeless people who have camped out permanently in the car park in their motor homes in that Californian photo!
The Commonwealth is not really defending these cases but is content to run up the legal costs nonetheless
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/13/court-orders-nauru-refugee-and-son-both-ill-to-be-flown-to-australia
San Francisco RV Resort:
https://rvlove.com/2017/07/22/review-san-francisco-rv-resort-pacifica-ca/
i would add that the Republicans efforts are to protect themselves as well. so many of them are seriously compromised.
@Evan_McMullin
Follow Follow @Evan_McMullin
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House Republicans’ efforts today and otherwise to expose the sources of an ongoing counter-intelligence investigation of immense national importance are utterly reprehensible and dangerous. They’re abusing their authorities to protect the president at the country’s expense.
2:40 PM – 12 Jul 2018
C@tmomma @ #1888 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 7:03 am
It’s a caravan park.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/13/greenpeace-and-getup-launch-campaign-to-kill-national-energy-guarantee
Damn, he’s here. Lights out and nobody make a sound.
Jaeger @ #1890 Friday, July 13th, 2018 – 9:11 am
Ew! It’s gross! Nothing like our beautiful caravan parks in Australia with their landscaped surrounds and amenities. It’s just a car park. Super-sized. For RVs.
Lizzie@6:53am
I am troubled that you could not believe Cash appointed one of her staff as Fair Work Ombudsman (which is outrageous).
Why I am concerned? That shows you that a little part of your brain still believes that Cash and this government will do the right thing by the people of this country after what they did till now ( I am shaking my head)
This is a very good and light-hearted discussion about Trump, the blimp and how best to get at him:
https://youtu.be/2NhTC51j10A
What a weird way for two leaders to be walking. It’s like Trump is in the care of his nursemaid.
Strip club Stormy Daniels charges dropped: lawyer
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1756440/3-strip-club-stormy-daniels-charges-dropped-lawyer/
Michael AvenattiVerified account @MichaelAvenatti
I am pleased to report that the charges against my client @stormydaniels have been dismissed in their entirety (below motion was just granted). I want to thank Joe Gibson & his colleagues at the prosecutors ofc for their professionalism starting with our first call early this am.
We appreciate Chief Kim Jacobs’s statement relating to the improper arrest. However, we demand a full and OPEN investigation into the conduct of the officers, including an examination of their social media accounts (some of which were mysteriously taken down earlier today)…
Certain of these accounts appear to have been very pro-Trump. In the event it is discovered that my client was targeted & arrested because of our opposition to Mr. Trump, the resulting lawsuit & action will be swift and devastating. That is not a threat. It is a promise. #Basta