Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. Boerwar @ #1772 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:31 pm

    GG
    Russia spends over 4% of its GDP on the military. We spend less than 2%.

    So? It’s not a contest. And also Russia had the U.S. and the rest of the West breathing down its neck for some number of decades. And has provoked more of that with its recent actions.

    We should spend our money on things that are actually useful, and leave getting into pissing contests over who can spend the most on deadly, deadly toys that they never actually use to the stupider nations of the world.

  2. More media wankery, and the reason why The Guardian is such a waste of time as a publication.

    Tell me what the following means and I’ll donate a dollar to the nearest defamation crowd funding campaign.

    … “the male gaze”, pioneered by theorists such as Michel Foucault and Laura Mulvey.

    This is that act of seeing that, so far from being transparent and neutral, is an imposition of power, and therefore extremely applicable to this drama of obsession and voyeurism, although I never tire of pointing out that there are very few members of the hetero-patriarchy who have the confidence or fanatical connoisseurship to pick out a woman’s clothes or exactly specify her hairstyle.

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/jul/12/vertigo-review-alfred-hitchcock-james-stewart-kim-novak

  3. Tears for Fears also had a song on the Donnie Darko Soundtrack. Head over Heels. Which I believe I played in my first keyboard exam.

  4. On Maddow just now there were a couple of interesting things. One was about the former head of the FBI’s counter-terrorism unit who will be on a full day public TV session under examination by the repugs in congress (RM says the repugs might have bitten off more than they can chew) AND

    Apparently Manafort who is not supposed to have contact with the outside world except a monitored telephone, has been sending and receiving emails by using a laptop that his lawyers bring in (he is permitted a laptop without internet but this was a second) upon which he wrote the emails and once the lawyers take the laptop outside jail, the emails are sent/received. Judge has ordered him to be moved but that kind of shenanigans must surely count against him (and his lawyers???)

  5. Observer @ #1819 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    There is a schedule of Nations that have Nuclear Warheads

    Russia is high in that list

    Australia is not on that list

    Thank you for making my point!

    The other one is, do the Russkies actually have the nuclear deterrent even with the 2% of additional
    GDP contribution.

    Trump may have twigged the Russians are basically the great Oz!

  6. Don’t worry, Bushfire Bill, there ARE Millennials out there that can see that sort of onanistic wankery for what it is, and they are our future.

    Plus, if you really want to be dismayed at some classic managerialese, you can’t go past Mike Pezzulo and his recent missive to senior staff:

    Knowledge of history, in its fullest sense, will give you a broad perspective, especially during what you might feel to be ‘the darkest hour’ – except, it almost most certainly will not be. History will be your lamp on these occasions, illuminating past episodes and rhythms which will suggest that we have faced similar challenges before now, and will do so again until the end of time.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/07/09/mike-pezzullos-email-to-senior-executive-staff-is-bizarre/

  7. jenauthor:

    I’d say Manafort is gone. The judge’s comments when he was sentenced to home detention were particularly scathing about his total contempt for the court’s ruling. He’s also quite clearly stupid if he is still trying to influence witnesses.

  8. No, Paul Manafort is not stupid. He is a criminal of the Trumpian type. Always on the scam tip trying to craft a way out of trouble. America has a bleedin’ production line going to produce them.

  9. Barney, I was going to post Leary and Asshole. But perhaps TISM better sums up PB with Whatareya – A Yob or Wanker?
    I wont link. Youse can google.

  10. C@t:

    If Manafort is not stupid in defying a court ruling again, then it must be because he expects Trump will pardon him of any convictions.

  11. From the NY Times Dawn Patrol equivalent email. MAke of it what you will.

    It’s just become trickier for President Trump to fire Robert Mueller anytime soon. Doing so during the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh — which is likely to last for at least two months — would create a set of problems for Trump that didn’t exist before.
    I count three main reasons:

    One, Trump clearly loves making Supreme Court nominations. They allow him to look presidential and to be bathed in praise by other Republicans. If he were to fire Mueller — the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the election — anytime in the coming weeks, the confirmation process would immediately lose its normalcy. It would be dominated by discussion of Mueller’s Russia investigation, which Trump loathes and makes him look like the opposite of a normal president.

    Two, firing Mueller could damage the Republicans’ chances of holding Congress in this year’s midterms. It’s true that most voters aren’t currently paying much attention to the Russia investigation. But if Trump tried to end that investigation, it would immediately create the kind of chaos that typically hurts the party in the White House.

    As is, the Supreme Court nomination has some real political advantages for Republicans. It unifies their base voters and reminds them of reasons to turn out. And it turns the discussion away from Trump, who remains unpopular.

    Finally, firing Mueller could damage Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation. As I’ve written before, I would be very surprised if any Senate Republicans defected. But their margin for error is virtually zero. Losing a single senator could defeat the nomination. And the circus that would accompany the firing of Mueller could certainly imperil one vote.

  12. You know who Trump pardoned before he left for Europe?

    Those Ranchers from Oregon who took over the National Park while President Obama was in power so they could graze their stupid cattle for nothing! Cleven Bundy I think the father’s name was.

  13. ‘Fess,
    Yep. That guy. Trump’s kind of guy.

    Donald Trump-coarsening America, one pardon at a time. I wonder when OJ will get his turn?

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #1820 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    Observer @ #1819 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    There is a schedule of Nations that have Nuclear Warheads

    Russia is high in that list

    Australia is not on that list

    Thank you for making my point!

    The other one is, do the Russkies actually have the nuclear deterrent even with the 2% of additional
    GDP contribution.

    Trump may have twigged the Russians are basically the great Oz!

    GG

    Are you for real?????? What a dangerously stupid thing to even consider.

  15. daretotread. @ #1842 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 11:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1820 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    Observer @ #1819 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    There is a schedule of Nations that have Nuclear Warheads

    Russia is high in that list

    Australia is not on that list

    Thank you for making my point!

    The other one is, do the Russkies actually have the nuclear deterrent even with the 2% of additional
    GDP contribution.

    Trump may have twigged the Russians are basically the great Oz!

    GG

    Are you for real?????? What a dangerously stupid thing to even consider.

    I’m up for anything dangerously stupid.

    Even engaging you!

  16. I’m glad Hanson-Young and Leyonhjelm are crowd funding their legal stouch. The more they raise the better.

    It just means that the halfwits of the soppy left and the looney right will have less extra cash to donate to their respective parties come the next General Election, and it will make some poor, deserving lawyers happier.

  17. Good point FS. I hereby urge all members of the soppy left and the loony right to sell their houses and all their contents to fund the litigation of their respective heroes.

  18. BB

    If you get a chance watch some of that footage from inside the cave. They re extremely lucky that they got the kids out. Really, really long stretches underwater.

    I now think that rather than exaggerating the risks the public was told a much softer version of the truth so as not to panic everyone.

    I think the kids were essentially anesthetized- or as near as.

    All praise to the Thai authorities. i even believed the two divers stuff,but I thought they may have a few metres under water not the long distances they obviously did need.

    Basically they turned the boys into luggage.

    I guess that is have a diving expert anaethetist helps. He must have has the skill set to give just the right dose of anesthetic/sedative.

  19. Never mind the clogs, I do not think the peeping camisole is army issue.

    But I could be wrong, that could be an army -issue sweatshirt, and the clogs are for traversing mudflats.

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