Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

  1. Christopher Wylie
    ️‍
    ‏Verified account @chrisinsilico
    2h2 hours ago

    It’s official. Cambridge Analytica has reformulated. They aren’t even trying to hide it and they already have clients in Africa. They are addicted to exploiting vulnerable countries for profit. These people need to be stopped from corrupting the world.

  2. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 7:51 pm

    Boerwar

    Added to that the French and Germans might feel they have a few centuries of reasons to want to stick one up the British Lion’s clacker . The Nederlanders may also feel such an urge ‘

    The general feeling I got in France during the year I spent there was not really. Large numbers of Brits live in France. Large numbers of french people live in England. While nearly all European students choose English as their second language, the Brits predominantly choose french as their second language.

    I am not sure about the general views in Germany. There may be fits and starts. For example when the Brits recently extolled the wonderful qualities of Bomber Harris, the Germans got irritated. After all, Bomber Harris killed far more German women and children than he did German soldiers. I suspect, without knowing, that the Germans value British participation in the EU project and in NATO and that they can hardly believe what the Brits are doing to themselves and to Europe.

  3. Confessions @ #1753 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1751 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    No, not out of touch. What that represented was a promise to the electorate they knew they had no chance of keeping, and they need to be called on it.

    There’s a reason why the Libs are in the shite! It’s because voters catch a whiff of bulldust whenever Turnbull speaks.

  4. Boerwar

    That is the ‘people’ but what about the government ? Often (usually, sometimes ? ) a disconnect. Meet the average American, wonderful people, just like people everywhere and yet they keep end up with the most frickin’ @#$$#@#$ murderous bustards running the place.

  5. p
    I would read a couple of french papers daily and watch the french daily news. There was very minor stuff like the Calais Jungle but by and large I did not detect ANY hostility directed to Britain by the french government. (This is ten years ago.) It was nearly all French v French!

    (It is just as well it is France v Croatia in the World Cup because if it had been France v England, all bets would have been off!)

  6. GG
    The Europeans are showing increasing signs of wanting to say to Trump and to the US, just fuck off you loathesome imbecile.
    The NATO countries have a higher military spend than Russia already so they could probably go it alone.
    They might just bite their lips until the next POTUS election.
    IMO, if the US returns Trump in 2.5 years, NATO is dead. So is ANZUS.

  7. If someone on $200k pa and in a position of some power (more than most of us, at any rate) feels the need to crowdfund a defamation action, maybe their efforts would be better spent helping to ensure that affordable legal redress is available to people on low and below average incomes than on enriching defamation lawyers under the current system.

  8. Boerwar @ #1765 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    GG
    The Europeans are showing increasing signs of wanting to say to Trump and to the US, just fuck off you loathesome imbecile.
    The NATO countries have a higher military spend than Russia already so they could probably go it alone.
    They might just bite their lips until the next POTUS election.
    IMO, if the US returns Trump in 2.5 years, NATO is dead. So is ANZUS.

    I read somewhere the other day that Australia has a higher GDP than Russia. We don’t spend gazillions on nuclear deterence. So,……

  9. If someone on $200k pa and in a position of some power (more than most of us, at any rate) feels the need to crowdfund a defamation action

    Is this a reference to SHY? I had no idea she was asking people to donate to her legal action.

  10. Confessions @ #1770 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:27 pm

    If someone on $200k pa and in a position of some power (more than most of us, at any rate) feels the need to crowdfund a defamation action

    Is this a reference to SHY? I had no idea she was asking people to donate to her legal action.

    Yep!

    And, so has Lleyonhelm. Latest figures I saw were SHY $50k, Dickhead misogynist $18k.

  11. BK
    I hope the Crows crush the Cats, not because of Crows love or Cats hate but because of Hawkish ladder considerations.
    For this night the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  12. GG, BK
    Looking at that footage, Taylor lined him up for about ten metres, totally ignored the ball, and hit him in the head.
    2 weeks minimum, IMO.

  13. GG:

    I had no idea, nor that both of them were crowdfunding their legal representation.

    I suppose if you can get people to cough up for you, then good for you. But it does look unseemly given both of them receive generous salaries and allowances.

  14. Equally Lleyonhelm should be sticking his hand in his own pocket rather than those of others. Dish it out, cop the consequences. After all, aren’t libertarians supposed to be self reliant, user-pays types?

  15. Confessions @ #1782 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:45 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1775 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    Boerwar @ #1774 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:32 pm

    GG
    1 week? The Footy gods DO move in mysterious ways…

    And that is borderline!

    others can make their choice.

    https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1017352018128703490

    He wasn’t even looking at the ball!

    Touhey was looking at stars for a few seconds though!

  16. Boerwar @ #1780 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    C
    Why should poor, hungry and homeless people be the only beggars in Australia?

    Plus your average wage earner not only cannot access Legal Aid, but nor do they have the public profile of a federal MP (or potential thereof) to crowdfund their own legal representation.

    I agree that SenL having brought this should at least pony up with his own money.

  17. From over The Ditch but the ‘wonderfullness” of Australia’s healthcare system is just the same. May it grow and prosper. Which means ditch the bleeping Coalition whose owners only see it as a potential ‘profit centre’ 🙁

    Lana Hart: Thank you, taxpayers, for keeping my kids alive

    I grew up in America and migrated to New Zealand when I was 29 years old. With three kids requiring an unusual amount of healthcare, my US family and I are forever amazed at the public healthcare system that we Kiwis enjoy, everyday, no signing on the dotted line, no questions asked.

    It is so easily taken for granted, this omnipresent, expert, wrap-around system of healthcare that, despite its political and operational challenges, serves New Zealand well.

    My daughter had a heart surgery last week. It was her second one, and her brother has had five heart surgeries. Years ago, her sister had 11 months of cancer treatment, including chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, a stem cell transplant, and high-dose chemotherapy. I suppose that sounds shocking or genetically nightmarish.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12087914

  18. @Taylormade

    I believe latter generations will be more favorable in their opinion of the Gillard government than contemporary’s saw it. For example; the government accomplished a lot despite being in a minority government reliant on support from the crossbenchers.

  19. Walker may get a week or two, they have changed the rules and that’s not acceptable any more. And good thing too.

    Unless of course you are from an AFL expansion club or a high profile Melbourne club, when you get off.

    And a Fremantle player would get double.

  20. Tristo @ #1788 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 9:01 pm

    @Taylormade

    I believe latter generations will be more favorable in their opinion of the Gillard government than contemporary’s saw it. For example; the government accomplished a lot despite being in a minority government reliant on support from the crossbenchers.

    Doesn’t matter.

    The focus is on the future.

  21. We had two Dockers players in Albany today, Michael Walters and Stephen Hill for a NAIDOC footy match between Wirrpanda and Clontarf. I went during my lunch break to watch, a nail biter 2 point win to Wirrpanda after Clontarf came back from 60 points down at half time.

    Michael and Stephen were great too, posing for endless photos with fans.

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