The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.
The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).
All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.
grimace @ #1700 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 5:55 pm
A virtual protest might become a thing then. Who actually needs Donald around? 🙂
Ven @ #1699 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 3:50 pm
If I were Mexico and other countries south of the US which Trump has regularly disparaged I’d be discretely making things hard for US law enforcement who were in the country for the purpose of drug related law enforcement and quietly green lighting the production and export of large quantities of drugs to the US.
The countries to the south of the US suffer very badly because they are the Mexican etc theatres of the US war on drugs. Take the US war on drugs out of the equation for them and life gets a lot better. If Trump wants to push a US first (and only) attitude then the countries to the south of the US should do the same for their interests. Their interests are served by shutting down the war on drugs and allowing the drug dealers to go about their business without having to bribe domestic government officials and engage in acts of violence.
Remember the Liberal Party’s, ‘For the Common Good’ social media presence thingy? It’s still around. Just: Mind yer business. You’ll recall the recent contretemps between Industry Super’s Peter Collins and the Business Council after he complained about former Liberal Party functionary and BCA exec Andrew Bragg’s campaign against industry super. The BCA, and former BCA head Tony Shepherd, reacted with fury to Collins’ complaint, claiming Bragg was just running that campaign in his own time and it had nothing to do with the BCA. Shepherd even claimed that Collins’ complaint signalled the decline of Western civilization (no, we are not making that up).Well, the ABC’s Stephen Long discovered that the BCA’s outrage was just a little, shall we say, confected … because Bragg’s campaign was directly linked to a campaign he is running for BCA, “For The Common Good“. For The Common Good was set up after the BCA’s failure on company tax, with the intention of running social media/data mining operations to persuade people to the BCA’s agenda of lower company taxes and wage cuts. Sadly, the Twitter account has less than 100 followers, and most of those have joined in recent days after the AFR’s Aaron Patrick ran a piece on how sad looking the campaign’s Twitter presence was. Still, at least it’s good for hosting Bragg’s software for his anti-industry super campaign. Well, was good — after Long contacted the BCA, it was removed and the BCA tried to claim it was a “technical error”. OoooooK.
Cant be right. The RET is the only thing in the NEG that is putting downward pressure on electricity prices.
Unless he is going to remove the RET and replace it with something in the NEG that doesnt look like the RET.
The machinations are bordering on the maniacal. Kick this mob of hopeless jokers out!
Found it….
https://www.afr.com/news/malcolm-turnbulls-energy-guarantee-relies-on-the-ret-to-cut-costs-20171122-gzqh5o
Simon² Katich® @ #1704 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 4:02 pm
Trumble has clearly needs Bex and a lie down.
The STC subsidy is EXTREMELY popular. The STC’s provide a sizable (though diminishing) subsidy for the installation of solar panels, which is one of the most effective thing a residential customer can do to reduce their electricity bill.
Boerwar
Unless a species is being monitored as closely as the pipistrelle was, there must always be a lag.
“Hey mate, I haven’t seen a Bassian thrush around here for several years.”
“Have you kept any records?”
“Nah, I just realised they’re not around any more.”
It wouldn’t apply where there are bands of birders, of course.
lizzie
I recorded the first ever Galahs moving into West Gippsland. It is much harder to notice when something disappears.
All KillBill in the Oz. Naturally Bandt is in there wielding the Greens’ dagger on behalf of Murdoch and Turnbull.
Thanks, SK for that link. Apparently, in Malcolm’s Brave New World of Energy, a government-subsidised Coal-fired Power Station, because that’s the only way one will ever get off the ground again, will be competing in a ‘technology agnostic’ way on a level playing field, in the government’s fever dreams, with unsubsidised Renewables, and may the best technology win!
Yeah nah.
Boerwar @ #1709 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 6:10 pm
Cue Pegasus with her cut and paste of Bandt, in 3…2…1
Boerwar
Absolutely true. There’s also the hope that they’re not really gone (such as scarlet robins in my area).
lizzie
Any species that is locally extirpated but is still extant elsewhere is a matter for hope, IMHO.
Superb Parrots many years ago used to inhabit the ACT. They then virtually disappeared for decades. Then a few visited in the non-breeding season and they are now regular breeders in the ACT.
Clearing of trees with the large hollows required is proceeding apace because the Labor/Greens Government in the ACT depends on land sales for 30% of its revenue.
Maddening.
Pretty pissed at the News Radio coverage of the news about how tax dodging individuals are underpaying by 9billion a year. Somehow in the ABC’s eyes this means the real culprits are individuals not big corporations who underpay by around 3billion.
WTF? They even had some talkingheads serving up similar slop.
Firstly, none of them joined the dots. There are only about 9million individual tax payers. So, assuming say 3/4s are honest that would make the rest are dodging $3000 in tax. I wonder which income bracket of individual would be able to do that?
Secondly, and most importantly, the complaint about corporations were not that they were illegally dodging tax. it is that they are legally able to pay very little (or zero) tax. The fact that these companies with all their tax expertise are still illegally dodging tax up to 3billion is still a disgrace.
Boerwar
Yes, maddening. And “old” trees are all dangerous and must be felled.
Boerwar
Last bird comment for now.
A constant irritation for me is how American bird feeders and nest boxes have flooded garden centres. The birds they will encourage (if, indeed they do) are the exotics like sparrows.
GG@1:44pm and Grimace@1:46pm
I really hope and pray that MT puts his head in political noose and CPG do frantic turd polishing. It will be sweet vision for sour eyes.
But that will not happen. MT will say that ALP has retained their seat and further say that he was misquoted. We all know what CPG response will be.
C@tmomma@6:12pm
Most probably it will cue Rex
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-targets-liberals-over-citizenship?cid=news:socialshare:twitter
lizzie
They don’t think they are above the rules. They KNOW it!
You’re only as above the rules as no one will hold you to account.
Oh…
Malcolm Farr this afternoon on Richard Glover’s ABC Drive show said he couldn’t think why Joyce’s expenses were being investigated. He sounded serious.
It wasn’t as if a weekend for two to Hayman Island was being claimed, he said. Or a romantic study tour to Paris, he said. It was all pretty standard stuff for a pollie and his assistant, he said. A few extra days in Canberra. So what? Nothing to see here, he said.
Which was not to take account of the fact that the assistant got pregnant to the minister, was in Canberra all the many days that the minister found himself also in Canberra (without anything apparent to do there) and that when it comes to country bumpkins shagging the help, Banality is the name of the Game, not Paris.
To his credit, and in that smarmy way he does, even Glover was not having a bar of it.
Because really, when you’re betraying all your stated moral positions, cuckolding your wife in favour of a younger woman, abandoning and humiliating your family, fucking up your reputation, your career and your billionaire donors’ expectations of you by not being able to keep your penis in your pants, in public view of all your journo mates, paperwork is the last thing you’re going to be concerned about.
Is this woman full of herself or WHAT?
Julie Kardashian has disgraced herself again, trying to blend in with the boys in cammo
I have just been polled by two separate outfits in the space of 20 minutes.
BK
I have just been polled by two separate outfits in the space of 20 minutes.
______________________________________
I am reminded of that scene in the Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer where he establishes his reputation for accurate polling in a by-election by polling everyone in the constituency.
What could POSSIBLY go wrong with Brexit?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6747231/ministers-plan-to-stockpile-processed-food/
Tristo says:
Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 3:02 pm
@Observer
“I agree fully with your assessment, I believe historians in the future will see the Abbott-Turnbull government as one of the worst in Australia’s history”
Still not as bad as Gillard just yet but will see how they go through the remainder of this year.
BK @ #1727 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:06 pm
This!
This is the type of Sectarian hate we have to endure every year. These anti Catholic bonfires are supported and endorsed by @theresa_may partners in government @DUPleader Welcome to Ireland in 2018 everyone.
GG
Yes, things are getting precarious in the UK.
BK
It looks more and more like they will achieve the worst of all possible worlds: an addled soft Brexit in which they are rule takers without the capacity to influence the rules.
BK @ #1723 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 4:56 pm
Ugh. Accessorising using soldiers does not say ‘the grown ups are in charge’.
GG
Are they still doing those bonfire of hatred thingies? I had not realized.
I received a Cory Bernardi pamphlet in my post box today. Is the Bernardi Party even running in the by-elections in WA?
Boerwar @ #1734 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:14 pm
The Gillard govt was nowhere NEAR as incompetent as this govt. It was in fact very successful considering it was not a majority.
This govt IS a majority and has barely got anything of consequence done.
If you’re talking about the infighting … that isn’t the governing
Boerwar
They largely already were. The ‘Cherman Money Men’ when push came to shove call the shots in Europe..
Teela Reid is a lawyer and Wiradjuri/Wailwan woman who was recently selected to attend Harvard University as a global emerging leader
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-turns-down-volume-on-voice-that-must-be-heard-20180712-p4zr4h.html
I was raised by my single mother and have always been inspired by strong black women. I was reminded of these many formidable Indigenous women who have challenged and encouraged me to speak up for justice when I appeared on Q&A’s people panel on Monday night, during this NAIDOC Week. And it is why, channelling their spirit, I spoke out against a Labor plan that would circumvent the recognition of a First Nations voice in the Australian constitution.
Two of the women who have inspired me are constitutional law professor Megan Davis and Aunty Pat Anderson, both of whom ran the First Nations dialogues of more than 250 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in 2017, which culminated in the historic Uluru Statement from the Heart. But Labor’s proposal to legislate for a First Nations Voice, without holding a referendum to change the constitution to include one, would dishonour that statement.
Photo captures the inner Murdoch!
https://cdn.thepopple.com/67061/heudio9l1rv7hd77yp1y.jpeg?imwidth=960
Well that is telling.
Kohler ? On abc news just had a graph that shows the %of GDP that labour receives is lowest in Australia.
The Gillard Government was a good Government that got things done. What we did have was a strongly biased media, especially Newscorp prosecuting their proprietor’s agenda, bellowing otherwise, egging on a feral and destructive Opposition, one which cultivated moral panic over ‘boats’ and Budget deficits and blocked attempts on the part of the Government to address both.
And Barney Joyce get’s away with bloody murder.
Oh. Thanks. I had wondered whether the concerns around a hard border were well-founded. It rather looks like it is real.
j
That graph shocked me.
‘poroti says:
Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 7:18 pm
Boerwar
They largely already were. The ‘Cherman Money Men’ when push came to shove call the shots in Europe..’
Hmmm… I suspect that is black and whitish… as it were.
More and more Brits are twigging about where the butter meets their bread.
The City pumps over 50 million quid a year into Treasury by way of taxes. Hard Brexit would 100% have shifted this into the Rump EU.
As for getting ready for hard Brexit… most amusing. It is just for show and also a bit of finessing around the edges for the last stages of the negotiations.
The parked lorry line for customs inspections would stretch half way to Edinburgh. How do you ‘prepare’ for that. No British flights would be allowed to land in the EU. The list goes on and on and on.
jenauthor
Our share of GDP has been heading south for yonks. If wager/salary earners had the same share of GDP today as we had in 1985 we would have a collective $156,800,000,000 in our pay packets each year ! Small business would boom on that discretionary spending pool !!
.
Briefing Note:Labour Share of Australian GDP Hits All-Time Record Low
By Jim Stanford, Economist and Director
June 13, 2017
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/theausinstitute/pages/1500/attachments/original/1497298286/Labour_Share_Hits_Record_Low.pdf?1497298286
j, p
I still reckon that wages share is why Turnbull will lose government as soon as he goes to an election.
Boerwar
Added to that the French and Germans might feel they have a few centuries of reasons to want to stick one up the British Lion’s clacker . The Nederlanders may also feel such an urge 🙂