Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

Comments Page 34 of 43
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  3. @Observer

    I agree fully with your assessment, I believe historians in the future will see the Abbott-Turnbull government as one of the worst in Australia’s history.

  4. Many thanks for a couple of clever posters last night.

    William B 😇
    and
    Psyclaw. 😇
    MacArthur park.
    A couple of clever and knowledgeable people.

    I have been to visit my senior favourite daughter’s childcare place and have caught up on my reading.
    I will post a couple of pictures of the most recently read of the littlies books.

  5. So what do people know about Philip Gaetjens. The background here suggests he’s a political appointment: https://www.afr.com/news/economy/treasury-secretary-john-fraser-resigns-replaced-by-philip-gaetjens-20180712-h12lcc?&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:fac-14omn0053-optim-nnn:nonpaid-25/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook

    Treasury secretary John Fraser has resigned and will be replaced by Philip Gaetjens, a former chief of staff to Treasurer Scott Morrison who was only recently named Australia’s next OECD ambassador.

  8. High quality books.

    I am currently reading Agincourt: Henry V and the Battle That Made England.

    Please keep the likes of the Agincourt book away from RW politicians. Just the thought of hanging, drawing, quartering is enough to turn my stomach.

    A very good afternoon to all. 😵 🍨

  9. Looking forward to reading the analysis of Fraser’s departure from Treasury.

    As I understand it he was picked from a post in the corporate world to drag the public service into the 21st Century and shape it to the will of his masters.

    Job done?

  11. I wonder how much of Fraser’s (apparently) sudden departure is because of his statements yesterday about the worsening USA -China trade war.

  13. Bennelong Lurker says Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 3:54 pm

    I wonder how much of Fraser’s (apparently) sudden departure is because of his statements yesterday about the worsening USA -China trade war.

    Shane Wright has tweeted that it was an open secret he was going:

    Shane Wright
    ‏Verified account @swrightwestoz
    No surprise there – Treasury sec John Fraser is resigning his post. And being replaced by Philip Gaetjens …

    Shane Wright
    ‏Verified account @swrightwestoz
    2h2 hours ago

    Been one of the open secrets in the public service…

  14. Mr Turnbull thanked Mr Fraser for his contribution, which has included strongly supporting the government’s efforts to repair the budget.

    Which he failed abysmally at.

    Vale John Fraser. Don’t let the door hit your well-upholstered derriere on the way out!

  16. Theresa May likely to survive soft Brexit fallout

    http://adrianbeaumont.net/theresa-may-likely-to-survive-soft-brexit-fallout/

    For May to be ousted as Tory leader, a majority of all Tory MPs have to vote no-confidence in her. The hard Brexiteers are well short of this number.

    While they can propose amendments in parliament, they need Labour’s support, and Labour and hard Brexiteers will vote together on very few occasions.

    The biggest danger for May is the parliamentary vote ratifying any deal she makes with the European Union, as Labour, SNP and Lib Dems will probably be opposed.

    UKIP is taking votes from the Tories, and Labour has its first lead in a YouGov poll since March.

  17. lizzie @ #1662 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 3:57 pm

    Van Badham
    @vanbadham

    Hey, has everyone noticed that One Nation are preferencing a convicted criminal and Neo-Nazi above Labor in Longman? And the Libs/Nats are preferencing One Nation over Labor? How does everyone feel about that? Because I think it’s beyond disgusting. #auspol

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/11/one-nation-preferences-longman/

    I guess it’s the ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ principle wrt preferencing.

  18. So Shane Wright says it was an open secret that Fraser was going.

    Back in the day when there were real journalists working in Canberra (yeah there were once, decades ago) somebody would have asked Turnbull or Morrison and written a story about it.

    “I knew about that” is a lame excuse for not being on top of your job.

  19. Fraser’s background was Merchant Banking with Mr HIH- a mate’s appointment

    To say this resignation was telegraphed is a smoke screen for the internal chaos in the Coalition, the power of certain and their influence

    Mr HIH is hanging by a thread

    The control over the government is being fought out with Mr HIH irrelevant to the groupings fighting it out

    Bear in mind also that this is a Coalition Government of Liberal and National (formerly Country) Parties also pandering to One Nation and Katter

    So many parts

    So much to go wrong – as it is

    I repeat

    The government is dysfunctional

  20. Barnaby survives travel claims investigation. However it seems that is because the investigation had to take his word that the travel was legitimate. He’s a lot luckier than any poor mug being investigated by Centrelink.

    Barnaby Joyce has been cleared of misusing taxpayer-funded travel expenses but investigators say they had to take his word that he was working.

    The former deputy prime minister claimed at least $16,000 in taxpayer refunds for almost two full months he spent in Canberra last year when Parliament was not sitting.

    But he has been cleared of misusing his taxpayer-funded travel to spend time with his adviser-turned-partner Vikki Campion.

    An independent investigation found a “substantial change” in the amount of time Mr Joyce spent in Canberra.

    Mr Joyce spent 58 nights in Canberra in 2017 when Parliament wasn’t sitting – compared to just 12 nights in 2015 and in 2016.

    The Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority said it had to take Mr Joyce at his word that he was telling the truth about his Canberra stays.

    “Only Mr Joyce can determine that his overnight stay was primarily occasioned by that official business that Mr Joyce has identified,” the authority said in its report on Thursday.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-cleared-of-misusing-taxpayer-funded-travel-expenses-20180712-p4zr4o.html

  21. Observer says Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 4:17 pm

    Fraser’s background was Merchant Banking with Mr HIH- a mate’s appointment

    I have no idea if Turnbull and Fraser were mates. However, Fraser was an Abbott selection. I suspect if Turnbull had been PM at the time he might have kept Parkinson on .

  25. I suppose that’s technically correct. Innocent until proven otherwise, etc..

    Still, we have reverse burden-of-proof for some things. Scrutiny of politicians seems like a good place to apply the same concept. Taking any politician at their word is folly.

  28. Sportsbet now has Liberals way out in front in Braddon (1.66:2.10). But they’ve switched to giving Labor a slight lead in Longman.

  31. Go Helen! Go you good thing!

    CROWDFUNDING SARAH HANSON-YOUNG’S DEFAMATION ACTION IS SERIOUSLY STUPID
    By Helen Razer July 10, 2018

    For an entire week, your reporter has quietly mourned the death of media reason. Today, she faces attack by winter power bill and can maintain her reverent silence no minute more. Is it an act of great hypocrisy to recount, for cash, an act of media stupidity then come over all la-di-da about how no worker in media should be banging on about it at all? Absolutely, yes. But, there are less principled ways to pay one’s bills. I could be asking you to pay ‘em, for instance.

    In the unlikely case you had not heard, Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has declared her intention to take action against Senator David Leyonhjelm, and she has asked Australians to crowdfund this defamation fancy. This follows the comments Leyonhjelm made to and about Hanson-Young.

    These comments were unparliamentary. If I were not fearful of my arse being owned forever by a parliamentarian, I might also call them sexist, idiotic and impulsive. I might then call Hanson-Young’s response to these disproportionate, opportunistic and self-serving.

    What moves a person to finance one Australian senator’s longing to pay lawyers to take money from another Australian senator?

    I will refrain, however, as I not remunerated even one quarter as well as a senator, nor do I have a senator’s comfy pension plan. Further, it is my misfortune not to hold those views with which large numbers of persons employed in media feel comfortable; to wit: “strewth, feminists are awful” or “golly gee, aren’t feminists the bees’ knees”. Ergo, no bastard would crowdfund my defence.

    Many bastards have, however, crowdfunded the defence of Sarah Hanson-Young. About 800 of the falsely conscious pets, at last count.

    Seriously. What is this shit? What moves a person to finance one Australian senator’s longing to pay lawyers to take money from another Australian senator? How did a person on whom great legitimacy, pay and power have been already conferred become a Poor Little Lady With No One But The People To Defend Her?

    Sarah Hanson-Young may weep for the powerless at appropriate moments, but she is not one of the powerless. She is a senator. She earns 200K a year. The woman is able to take vacations at the World Economic Forum, an obscene circle-jerk of the powerful. There is no better time or place on Earth to collect the cards of the inordinately well-to-do. Let her get a loan from one of the lady bankers she met at the nice Swiss spa.

    https://dailyreview.com.au/senator-sarah-hanson-young/76282/

  33. ar
    Looking at the Ladbroke’s odds in the side bar it rather looks to me as if here is an excellent arbitrage opportunity.

  34. Barnaby survives travel claims investigation. However it seems that is because the investigation had to take his word that the travel was legitimate.

    What I found funny is on the same page is a story of the tax office cracking down on claims for work expenses and investment deductions, where they do not take your word for it.

    You need to show them some sort of proof, diary, receipts, work done.

    Be nice if we could all be like Joyce, yep, yep, holiday house was only for paid rental, hardly any use by relies, just hard to rent you take my word,

  35. Boerwar @ #1683 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 5:08 pm

    ar
    Looking at the Ladbroke’s odds in the side bar it rather looks to me as if here is an excellent arbitrage opportunity.

    Actually, yes. The live ladbrokes odds are even (slightly) better, at 1.55:2.1 Lab:Lib in Braddon.

    So…hang on a moment while I bet $10k for Labor to win on Sportsbet @ 2.1, and $10k for the Libs to take it on Ladbrokes @ 2.1. Free $1k.

  37. Did the building of the Christmas Island detention centre contribute to this bat’s extinction?

    On the evening of 26 August 2009, the last known pipistrelle emerges from its day-time shelter on Christmas Island. Scientists, desperate about its conservation, set up a maze of netting to try to catch it. It is a forlorn and futile exercise – even if captured, there is little future in just one bat. But the bat evades the trap easily, and continues foraging. It is not recorded again that night, and not at all the next night. The bat is never again recorded. The scientists search all nearby areas over the following nights. It has gone. There are no more bats. Its corpse is not, will never be, found. It is the silent, unobtrusive death of the last individual. It is extinction.

    A Bat’s End

    The Christmas Island Pipistrelle and Extinction in Australia
    John Woinarski

  38. On the betting markets, I discovered earlier that Ladbrokes in the sidebar doesn’t necessarily show the latest odds.

    In Braddon, a poster mentioned a few days ago that Sportsbet had moved to favour the Liberals. However Centrebet, Ladbrokes and WilliamHill still have Labor favourites (around 1.60 to 2.10).

    In Longman, the Libs have a very slight advantage but there’s little in it (around 1.80 to 1.90).

  39. Boris

    Yep, try telling the tax office your $16k claim is legit with no receipts.

    Actually I reckon the tax office should be given scrutiny over pollies expenses.

    Scrap these “per night” payments when the MP was probably staying with a “friend” for free. No receipt. No claim.

  41. a r @ #1675 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    I suppose that’s technically correct. Innocent until proven otherwise, etc..

    Still, we have reverse burden-of-proof for some things. Scrutiny of politicians seems like a good place to apply the same concept. Taking any politician at their word is folly.

    As Beetrooter is the one making the claim then the onus should be on him to prove that the travel is legitimate. No reversing of the onus of proof required, just treat him like Centrelink treat normal Australians.

    On that, I understand that Centrelink require some welfare recipients to get third parties to verify their relationship status and comings and goings, and that the third parties are under threat of substantial penalty should they lie. I think Mr Joyce’s case is an excellent place to roll this policy out to politicians – we could contact the people closest to him and request details of his comings and goings during the offending period.

  43. Mr HIH’s Merchant Banking cohort has held the Treasury Secretary position for just over 3 years

    The move by Abbott on Parkinson was immediate upon Abbott coming to government but successively delayed by external agenda economic events – plus what to do with Parkinson to keep him quiet

  46. So, Malcolm Turnbull, in another capitulation to the neanderthal Right of the Liberal and National parties, has decided to abandon the Renewable Energy Target altogether!?!

    Asked about support for coal-fired generation, Mr Turnbull insisted he wanted the energy market to simply allow rival technologies and fuels to compete on their merits.

    “We are not in the business of subsidising one technology or another. We’ve done enough of that,” he said.

    “Frankly too much of that has been done. Going forward, the subsidies should come to an end … including the renewable energy target, and we should simply allow the technologies to compete.

    https://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-wont-back-taxpayer-funds-for-coalfired-power-20180712-h12kur

  47. grimace @ #1695 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1692 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    So, Donald Trump and Melania are touring Oz in November?

    Where do I sign up to join the protests? Grimace Jr #1 can come to his first political protest.

    He’ll be in Canberra, where he is going to address federal parliament and probably Sydney, where Mr Harbourside Mansion will likely show Donald and Melania his and Lucy’s ‘modest’ digs. If he goes to Perth, it may be because he tours Pine Gap. Or he may go to Darwin to visit the troops.

    Wherever it is I’m sure good Labor people will be protesting. 🙂

    I just hope he doesn’t get ‘handsy’ with Chloe Shorten! 😉

  50. C@tmomma @ #1697 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 3:49 pm

    grimace @ #1695 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1692 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    So, Donald Trump and Melania are touring Oz in November?

    Where do I sign up to join the protests? Grimace Jr #1 can come to his first political protest.

    He’ll be in Canberra, where he is going to address federal parliament and probably Sydney, where Mr Harbourside Mansion will likely show Donald and Melania his and Lucy’s ‘modest’ digs. If he goes to Perth, it may be because he tours Pine Gap. Or he may go to Darwin to visit the troops.

    Wherever it is I’m sure good Labor people will be protesting. 🙂

    I just hope he doesn’t get ‘handsy’ with Chloe Shorten! 😉

    I wasn’t thinking he’d actually come here, more that there would be protests in every city about his presence in Australia generally.

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