Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  1. They’ve sure wrung a lot out of the Carbon Tax haven’t they?

    When it was in force it was responsible for price rises.

    When it was repealed it was responsible for price rises.

    Just the bare mention of it, or of “renewables” is enough to get voters shaking their heads, even though they know for sure there is no logic to this way of thinking. The reaction is pure Pavlovian.

  2. We are often vexed with Senate voting that results in a clusterfark, but consider this retweet a little while ago from Lawrence O’Donnell’s Twitter account:

    “……by 2040 or so, 70 percent of Americans will live in 15 states. Meaning 30 percent will choose 70 out of 100 Senators. And this 30 percent will be older, whiter, more rural and more male than the 70 percent.”

  3. Gas billing is notoriously unreliable. Three recent cases I know of:

    – bill for estimated usage supposedly because an accessible meter could not be read (much more than actual usage)
    – gas bill not received electronically and customer had to chase up
    – gas bill for zero consumption (but $70 supply fee) when gas had clearly been used .

  4. Barney in Go Dau @ #1580 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:52 am

    This doesn’t argue well for the credibility of the the Industry.

    Don’t worry about addressing the issues, just rearrange the deck chairs and she’ll be right.

    A company in the Emanuel Exports group has been hit with a fresh live export licence suspension, preventing a new plan to export 60,000 live sheep to the Middle East.

    In a midnight announcement, the Department of Agriculture said it had suspended a second live export licence, after a reshuffle of directors in the Emanuel Exports group of companies attempted to sidestep the first suspension.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/12/live-animal-exporter-hit-with-second-licence-suspension

    Yes Littleproud should grow a spine and just ban live exports.

  5. a r

    goodness. You are very economical! There are currently four adults using hot water, electricity, heating, cooking, washing, etc in my residence. I thought we were fairly economical, but obviously not! Lol!!

  6. a r

    I should have added that I checked usage over the past five years, and it is fairly consistent. Only difference is that gas prices have gone up a lot over the past 12 months.

  7. Looks like Turnbull is trying to buy Abbott’s silence ahead of an election:

    PM weighs coal fix for energy war

    SIMON BENSON, BEN PACKHAM
    A proposal to guarantee new dispatchable power generation is expected to be taken to cabinet with the PM’s support. (Oz headline)

  8. Victoria @ #1591 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    This year 22164 MJ

    Which for natural gas equates to about 570 cubic meters.

  9. a r @ #1604 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 12:03 pm

    Victoria @ #1591 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    This year 22164 MJ

    Energy wise, that’s nearly equivalent to my combined annual usage of electricity and gas. Maybe something is wasting gas, or there’s a metering issue somewhere?

    My last gas bill (April to June) was 17598.32 MJ and we have gas central heating, gas hot water and gas hot plates. The central heating runs all day and is set at 19 and put up to 20 in the evening. That seems to be a fairly economical way to run it. It turns off between 10pm and 7am.
    There are only 2 adults here and a compact house.

  10. Animals Australia
    ‏ @AnimalsAus
    45m45 minutes ago

    EMS Rural Exports has had its license SUSPENDED. Today, we breathe a sigh of relief for the 45,000 sheep spared from an inevitable ‘furnace’. But we’re not resting.

    Exporters take note — you can keep trying, but we’ll keep fighting every step of the way.

    #EndLiveExport

  11. laughtong @ #1610 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 12:14 pm

    My last gas bill (April to June) was 17598.32 MJ and we have gas central heating, gas hot water and gas hot plates. The central heating runs all day and is set at 19 and put up to 20 in the evening. That seems to be a fairly economical way to run it. It turns off between 10pm and 7am.
    There are only 2 adults here and a compact house.

    I think with central heating all bets are off. I’ve only got gas hot water (and it’s not even municipal supply; we get a 45kg gas bottle delivered every 4-5 months, and that covers it). Everything else is electric.

    Heating happens literally never. Cooling, on the other hand, is fairly frequent during the warmer half of the year. Though we use split systems to only cool the room(s) we’re actually in and the external walls of the house are basically made of styrofoam, so it’s fairly efficient.

    Two adults only.

  12. Tell us what you really think…….lol!

    John O. Brennan
    John O. Brennan
    @JohnBrennan
    ·
    8h
    It is in the interest of America’s security if NATO leaders push back against the reckless behavior of Donald Trump, who is dangerously naive & grossly ignorant of how the world works. History inevitably will regard Trump as one of the most disastrous figures of the 21st century.
    John Kerry
    @JohnKerry
    My thoughts on President Trump’s remarks in Brussels this morning:

  13. David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    15m15 minutes ago

    David Marler Retweeted Sky News Australia

    Are you the PM? You sound like an OL. #auspol

  14. Boerwar @ #1540 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:09 am

    Z
    Abbott is right. Trump has single-handedly turned our Defence White Paper is a crock. IMO we need to fundamentally change our security policies.

    We can start by not sticking our noses in other people’s business.

    If we stopped antagonising people in the middle east then I’d wager they’d be a lot less inclined to perpetrate terrorist acts against us. We’d also save many billions of defence spending.

  15. Zoidlord says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 12:52 pm
    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    15m15 minutes ago

    David Marler Retweeted Sky News Australia

    Are you the PM? You sound like an OL. #auspol

    This must be the Turnbull quote Marler retweeted. Literally everything is Labor’s fault!

    Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    @SkyNewsAust
    Follow Follow @SkyNewsAust
    More
    .@TurnbullMalcolm: When @billshortenmp is done explaining how much more tax he’s going to get people to pay in Longman, and raid retirees’ savings, he can explain how @AustralianLabor’s energy policies are pushing prices up.

  16. Vic,

    It might pay to shop around.

    Our consumption is very close to your current bill usage last year. Our total current bill this year is $560.

    We are also on a payment plan and pay $103 per month which smooths the big bump that occurs in the June and August cycles.

  17. Ven @ #1617 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 12:48 pm

    According to MT, the by-election contest is between him and Shorten according to below article. Common ALPers, if you need any incentive and motivation, if at all, then this is it.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/longman-byelection-between-me-and-bill-shorten-says-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/ec86a688d4a916207c0ba320b28e8f83

    Did he do that weird little thing where he balls his hands into little effeminate fists when he said it? 🙂

  18. Cat

    ‘… little effeminate fists …’

    Really?

    Small is no good? Feminine is no good? Small plus feminine is even worse?

  19. So if according to Trumble himself Longman is a head to head between him and Shorten, what will he tell his party when Longman tells him that they prefer Bill.

  20. Boerwar @ #1628 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 1:29 pm

    Cat

    ‘… little effeminate fists …’

    Really?

    Small is no good? Feminine is no good? Small plus feminine is even worse?

    Not when Malcolm Turnbull does it in such a way as to evoke a threatening gesture, but not TOO threatening.

    Anyway, Malcolm Turnbull is a man and should behave like one. Unless he’s hiding something from us and can’t help it. 😉

  21. Could someone tell Malcolm, it’s not a beauty contest in Longman, it’s a contest of ideas. So, in that sense only is it a contest between Bill Shorten and Labor’s ideas and the policies to implement them and Turnbull’s. Thus far, 34 (?) Newspolls and counting, people seem to prefer Bill’s and Labor’s.

  22. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 8:15 am
    I was referring to the cartoon itself, BK. Where’s the joke? That Bill Shorten would be lying if he claimed to have the support of Mark Latham? I don’t see how that qualifies. Maybe the answer lies in whatever the CFMEU guy is supposed to be doing, but I’ll be buggered if I can work out what that is.

    William

    I just caught up with your comment above (and similar posts from others) regarding Zanetti’s weak attempt at humour this morning.

    I think the joke is supposed to be based on irony. It depicts Shorten as lying about what Latham is saying about him (ie that Shorten just lies all the time) thus proving the truth of Latham’s accusation.

  23. citizen @ #1608 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    Looks like Turnbull is trying to buy Abbott’s silence ahead of an election:

    PM weighs coal fix for energy war

    SIMON BENSON, BEN PACKHAM
    A proposal to guarantee new dispatchable power generation is expected to be taken to cabinet with the PM’s support. (Oz headline)

    Capitulation and appeasement are never a good look in a leader.

  24. Darn @ #1635 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    I think the joke is supposed to be based on irony. It depicts Shorten as lying about what Latham is saying about him (ie that Shorten just lies all the time) thus proving the truth of Latham’s accusation.

    I still fail to see how that works as a joke.

    So the union guy is holding an unconvincing fake halo. Shorten’s pants are on fire because he’s telling lies about what Latham said. Voter guy looks like he doesn’t particularly want the HTV card.

    Not seeing where anything funny happens. Maybe the missing link is I don’t know what Latham has actually said or purported to say? I just recall something vague about him doing something asinine like throwing his support behind PHON or the LNP.

  25. We seem to use about 14,600 MJ of energy over the winter quarter – 6,000 MJ of gas for hot water and cooking, and 8,600 MJ of electricity (2,400KWh) for reverse-cycle heating etc.

  26. Greensborough Growler @ #1625 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Vic,

    It might pay to shop around.

    Our consumption is very close to your current bill usage last year. Our total current bill this year is $560.

    We are also on a payment plan and pay $103 per month which smooths the big bump that occurs in the June and August cycles.</blockquoteth

    Victorian Government is paying you $50 once-off to visit their site which does a good comparison of both gas and electricity plans. I did not need to change but claimed the $50 to help with the winter bill.
    https://compare.energy.vic.gov.au/

  27. The fix is in for coal, but is it actually dispatchable?
    Is Malcolm just playing word games, to make it look like he is backing coal.
    Gas, Batteries and Hydro are more dispatchable than coal would ever be.

  28. a r says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 1:56 pm
    Darn @ #1635 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    I think the joke is supposed to be based on irony. It depicts Shorten as lying about what Latham is saying about him (ie that Shorten just lies all the time) thus proving the truth of Latham’s accusation.

    I still fail to see how that works as a joke.

    So the union guy is holding an unconvincing fake halo. Shorten’s pants are on fire because he’s telling lies about what Latham said. Voter guy looks like he doesn’t particularly want the HTV card.

    Not seeing where anything funny happens. Maybe the missing link is I don’t know what Latham has actually said or purported to say? I just recall something vague about him doing something asinine like throwing his support behind PHON or the LNP.

    a r

    Latham said of Shorten ” he just lies and lie and lies all the time” (or very close to that). The implication being that he never stops lying. Hence the poor attempt by Zanetti to find some ironic humour in it by having Shorten lie about what Latham said.

    I personally think Zanetti is a very poor cartoonist and I have actually questioned why BK bothers to post his stuff. But others have indicated that they are quite happy with it. There’s always the scroll wheel I suppose.

  29. Nicko @ #1640 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 2:19 pm

    The fix is in for coal, but is it actually dispatchable?
    Is Malcolm just playing word games, to make it look like he is backing coal.
    Gas, Batteries and Hydro are more dispatchable than coal would ever be.

    Whatever they do, the bottom line is they have to meet their emissions target.

  30. So Malcolm knows he got better personal ratings in the polls, thats why he is going for the leadership angle.
    But it could be a terrible strategy if the election results are firmly against him, I am not sure that Bill would be too unhappy to make it about leadership anyway, consider Malcolm has been extremely weak on many fronts.

  31. Rebel Wilson exposes the “I’ll give it to charity “ lie.
    She’s off to the High Court..
    In the 12-page application, $9,000-a-day barrister Matthew Collins QC, alongside fellow barrister Renee Enbom, argue the court of appeal made a number of errors, including that Wilson needed to prove economic loss after being fired from movie roles.

    Maybe the HC will agree & award her $300m because she was about to get biggest film contract ever.
    $2000/hr gets you good advice.

  32. Zanetti’s cartoons have a common theme (CFMEU) and the only thing funny about them is Shorten was AWU’s national secretary; a union in competition with the CFMEU. I don’t think displaying that level of ignorance is Zanetti’s aim. What his aim is I have no idea. Generally cartoons display a level of insight into what humanity is, it just isn’t there.

  33. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 2:24 pm
    Boerwar @ #1627 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Back to Kill Bill over at the Oz. We’ll all be rooned, apparently.
    Bill Shorten is Turnbulls best asset.

    Or consider the mirror image of that comment: “Turnbull is Shorten’s best asset”.

  34. So Mr HIH’s mate has departed Treasury with just 14 days Notice.

    Hmmm

    And replaced by a staffer to the treasurer – also a former staffer to Costello.

    They got the appointment as Treasury Secretary wrong in the first place and have now compounded the error.

    Frank and fearless advice?

    No

    Tell us what we tell you to tell us.

    No wonder there is no confidence within Treasury, the ACCC, APRA and the raft of other government bodies.

    Only the RBA Governor sits above the cesspool

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