The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.
The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).
All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.
I really like Pope, I think he is the better cartoonist. Rowe is the better artist but Pope is cutting with his politics.
…I would also add that these voters haven’t suddenly become misogynistic a***holes, and thus won’t suddenly turn the tide for misogynistic a***hole Senators. They have always been misogynistic a***holes, and if their vote has always been directed purely on these grounds, it will continue to go where it always has gone.
zoomster
spot on
Victoria:
Did you catch this article from the other day? Very comprehensive detailing of links between Trump and Russia.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html
I love Pope too, but before I became a writer I was going to be an artist (indeed I still paint when the mood takes me) so Rowe’s artistic ability impresses me. The other thing I like about Rowe is it slowly reveals its full intent … usually there’s the obvious … and then if you care to look, there’s a lot that is not so obvious.
Art and commentary at its best.
Incidentally – when Rowe disappeared from sight recently I feared he’d been poached by an American outlet because he does so many anti-Trump toons which I and other retweet around the world. Luckily, he was just on holiday in Spain
Fess
yes. I made comment at time that I felt it gave a very good overview of the whole saga.
as I mentioned previously, I expected the matter to ramp up after World Cup finishes.
i still believe this to be the case. So more interesting times ahead.
200,000 represents around 3% of male voters which means that there are a lot of sicko men out there. And these are only the ones who joined. There will be others.
It seems to me that the far right love-to-hate vote is about the same as the Greens love-to-hate vote: somewhere between 5% and 15% depending on the time and the place.
BK @ #1512 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:34 am
Two articles that make you want to weep at our greed and stupidity 🙁
Paul Barrat should know that Di Natale is going to fix inequality with his UBI. Simples. All he has to do is find the two trillion plus over four years!
j
Rowe roils the psyche!
Lizzie
Did you see the information that I posted yesterday regarding
using Chrome and posting pictures ❓
☮ ☕
Ven @ #1546 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 9:24 am
And to the general benefit of the United States (or at least, large U.S.-based defense companies), naturally.
Another reason to long for the bloody World Cup to hurry up and be over with! 😀
jenauthor:
Yes, there is always so much to see with Rowe, which is why I love his work.
Fess
lol! if the Cup had been held anywhere else but Russia, it would not have been an issue.
I still believe they are trying to convince Trump to resign. Although it is very difficult to get through to a malignant narcissist.
the ramping gas prices are giving me the pips! i had been away all of June and consumption was dramatically less than this time last year. Despite this, my gas bill is higher than this time last year.
$600.00 plus for 2 months!! what the heck
KayJay
Yes, I saw it, thanks. I think I was out at the time. Chrome seems to be set up already. 🙂
a r
On ‘defence spending’. I have been thinking for some time that the military will be of more use assisting with increasing environmental disasters at home and in our near neighbourhood than sucking up to America.
Mal’s gone completely feral.
“Turnbull blames Labor for energy woes.
Even though we won against Centrelink they still being bastards again, underpayment FFFS.
@Lizzie
And yet:
Sky News Australia
Verified account @SkyNewsAust
18h18 hours ago
.@acccgovau Chair, Rod Sims: The NEG integrates all the objectives into the energy market and that’s necessary to bring about more affordable power.
MORE: https://bit.ly/2JbLNe7 #Speers
lizzie @ #1569 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:18 am
I guess he’s missed the part about electricity prices in Queensland actually going down (albeit only by a tiny amount).
Lying politician, telling lies again. He must think he’s Trump.
Maybe the ABC can look at German energy production , import & usage now that Trump has mentioned it ..
https://energytransition.org/2018/01/german-energy-consumption-2017/
Renewables produced 30% 2017, nuclear & coal usage way down, natural gas slightly up.
Figures show Germany is net exporter of energy.
Renewables met 35% of domestic demand in 2017
Perhaps the flashiest news item came just after the turn of the year, when the new German power markets platform (SMARD) showed that renewables briefly made up roughly 100% of demand.
Ex- NSA John Schindler
This Is How Vladimir Putin Manufactures Conflict Between Nations
As Helsinki’s one-on-one presidential summit looms, with foreign policy mavens fearing that Vladimir Putin will run circles around a clueless Donald Trump, it’s time to examine what makes the Kremlin’s Chekist-in-Chief tick.
The cornerstone of the Chekist worldview is provocation, what the Russians call provokatsiya
Provokatsiya simply means taking control of your enemies in secret and encouraging them to do things that discredit them and help you. You plant your own agents provocateurs and flip legitimate activists, turning them to your side. When you’re dealing with extremists to start with, getting them to do crazy, self-defeating things isn’t often difficult. In some cases, you simply create extremists and terrorists where they don’t exist. This is causing problems in order to solve them, and since the Tsarist period, Russian intelligence has been known to do just that.
MORE : http://observer.com/2018/07/putin-conflict-poland-ukraine-nato/
We would be better off increasing investment and foreign aid before military spending.
zoomster @ #1552 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 9:38 am
Not necessarily. Many may not have ever heard of L or been aware of his misogynistic attitudes. But most of those 200,000 won’t be in NSW, being interstate or overseas misogonists or just bots to pump up the numbers. Sen L will be a foornote at the next election.
Bill is on Bribie. Any messages you would like me to pass on?
I don’t regard myself as any kind of political expert but it seems to me that Abbott is positioning himself for another tilt at the leadership after Turnbull loses the next election as expected. I am not saying he has much chance of getting it, just that he sees himself as a contender when the opportunity arises.
And who knows? Depending on the size of their defeat, who’s to say they wouldn’t toss the ball to him again, knowing from his record that he is a dirty, anything goes, type of opposition leader whose tactics would be certain to draw some blood. Desperation can lead to some strange outcomes at times (remember Howard’s resurrection when everyone had him dead, buried and cremated).
If that did occur though I very much doubt that they would stick with him through to the following election. His only use would be to cause as much mayhem for Labor as possible for a year or two, prior to being chucked over again for a more electable leader. A sacrificial pawn.
That’s my take anyway and it’s probably way off the mark. But I wouldn’t bet my life savings it.
This doesn’t argue well for the credibility of the the Industry.
Don’t worry about addressing the issues, just rearrange the deck chairs and she’ll be right.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/12/live-animal-exporter-hit-with-second-licence-suspension
That should be – “life savings against it”
That sounds outrageously high Victoria (great to see you back BTW).
What kind of heating system are you using?
How politics become so crap:
Josh Taylor
Verified account @joshgnosis
3m3 minutes ago
Sarah Hanson-Young defo crowdfunder at $50K, David Leyonhjelm crowdfunder at $18K.
Darn @ #1582 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 10:59 am
Also Victoria Check if it is a true reading or estimated bill. Some company’s estimates have been shown to be way out.
It has been made abundantly clear for several years now, to those who choose to listen, that the increase in power prices is mostly down to transmission and distribution costs – the “asset gold-plating” problem.
The NEGs focus on the generation side appears to make little sense other than as a political sop.
We have heard much from the Liberal party in the past about the supposed dangers of “picking winners”, but this idea of the Government underwriting new coal generation appears to be a case of “picking losers”.
Darn
Central heating.
Happy to be home. Thanks.
I am going to take Laughtongs advice and check out the usage etc more closely
Darn,
I see a lot of young blood in the Liberals now that have a profile and are looking at making their mark, so I can’t see an Abbott resurrection if they lose the next election.
Of course it would come down to who was left after a loss.
Not too many, hopefully! 🙂
Zoid
Not sure why that result demonstrates that politics has become crap.
Victoria @ #1586 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:06 am
Look at your meter and compare the readings, that will tell you if it’s an estimate or not.
For those who didn’t read this this morning:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/11/turnbull-one-nation-preferences/
Well worth 5 minutes
Checked Meter and bills.
Consumption last year 27444 MJ bill $560.64
This year 22164 MJ bill $606.54
Looking at unit prices which are variable. Price increase quite substantial.
What a rort
If I had consumed same amount as last year, my account would be around $700
@zoomster
If he doesn’t get sacked for his distasteful, then….. Fundraising won’t do shit.
With energy prices as they currently are, modern electric heat pumps are likely more cost-effective for heating than gas.
caf
sure looks that way
He’s a Senator. He can only be “sacked” by the voters, or if he’s disqualified under the terms set out in the Constitution.
According to Grog, not all new employment is new employment.
It seems there is a rise in people taking a second job!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jul/12/low-wages-growth-means-work-is-nice-if-you-can-get-it-twice
caf says:
Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 11:03 am
It has been made abundantly clear for several years now, to those who choose to listen, that the increase in power prices is mostly down to transmission and distribution costs – the “asset gold-plating” problem.
The NEGs focus on the generation side appears to make little sense other than as a political sop.
And those in the industry well know a lot of money has to be spent on the distribution network; most of it was built in the 60’s and 70’s and it lasts about 50 years.
We use reverse cycle A/C for heating and cooling. Works a treat.
Used to use gas in winter, but it got too expensive.
Kate McClymont
Verified account @Kate_McClymont
3m3 minutes ago
I am crushed to discover I have been blocked by Richo, the former Senator for Kneecaps. @SkyNewsRicho