Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  2. Tony Trump at it again. This time in America itself:

    Washington: Donald Trump is right to argue America’s traditional allies, including Australia, have been “freeloading” off the US for too long, former prime minister Tony Abbott has said in a speech favourably comparing Trump to his “moralising” predecessor Barack Obama.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/tony-abbott-trump-s-right-allies-are-freeloading-off-us-defence-20180712-p4zqy0.html

    I think the danger of Tony is manifest in the way he has with words. He can make anything he wants to sound plausible.

  3. “Just because preferences are directed to a party doesn’t mean that you support them, quite the contrary,” said Malcolm Turnbull in February, displaying all of a barrister’s skill in portraying white as black if it suits his case.
    …
    The occasion was a weak attempt to distance himself from the odour of the Liberal Party preferencing One Nation ahead of the Nationals, let alone Labor, in the WA state election.

    Now, with Liberal Party preferencing One Nation ahead of Labor in the federal seat of Longman, there is no distancing. Mr Turnbull is up to his eyeballs in orange hair dye.
    …
    For the Coalition’s more conservative elements, there’s no problem with One Hanson’s erratic, sectarian, racist populism, or its loopy economic fantasies.

    For Mr Turnbull though, there’s no longer a possibility of denying the stink. It’s his. It’s the smell of lost hopes.

    The Liberal Party’s defacto coalition with One Nation finishes whatever pretence of principled leadership Mr Turnbull once sought to portray. It’s purely about the keys to The Lodge, whatever it takes to keep his job.

    Once you’ve kowtowed to Pauline Hanson, there’s nothing left.

    Somewhere, an empty leather jacket.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/11/turnbull-one-nation-preferences/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180712

  4. The Animals Australia group is planning to seek a court injunction to stop tens-of-thousands of sheep being transported to the Middle East.

  6. Why is IPA’s name always so secret?

    Peter Cassidy
    ‏@ozpacman
    8h

    So tonight, commercial tv stations ran a story about an alleged January attack by a homeless guy on the IPA’s Director of Policy Simon Breheny. Yet they referred to Simon as merely a city “Office Manager” without mentioning his IPA ties. An interesting omission

  8. Welcome to Digital World.

    A company that issues Aviation Security Identity Cards (ASICs) — designed to stop organised criminals and terrorists from accessing planes and other restricted airport zones — has been hacked, leading to concerns that Australian airport security may have been compromised as a result.
    Hundreds of people applying for, or renewing, ASICs through NSW-based company Aviation ID Australia received emails on Wednesday telling them their ASIC application information may have been stolen, the ABC has learned.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-12/afp-investigating-airport-security-card-data-hack/9981796

  10. Craig Thomler
    ‏@craigthomler
    13h

    Stateless teen from #ThaiCaveRescue speaks 5 languages, plays 3 instruments, is a straight A student, excels at sport & managed comms with British divers. If he came to #Australia seeking a refuge we’d trap him in a cage on Nauru & refuse him entry #auspol

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott’s still at it!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/tony-abbott-trump-s-right-allies-are-freeloading-off-us-defence-20180712-p4zqy0.html
    As Trump goes troppo in Europe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/germany-is-russia-s-captive-trump-says-in-new-outburst-at-nato-allies-20180711-p4zqxg.html
    Trump is moving faster and more aggressively on Chinese tariffs than analysts expected, lifting the odds of a full-on trade war between the two global economic powerhouses.
    https://outline.com/LexvhH
    Michael Pascoe opines that a weak Turnbull is up to his eyeballs in orange dye when it comes to preferences.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/11/turnbull-one-nation-preferences/
    Peter Hannam concludes that Rod Sims, head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, can’t decide whether the answer to our “broken” electricity market is more or less government intervention.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/accc-can-t-decide-if-electricity-market-needs-more-or-less-regulation-20180711-p4zqsk.html
    A proposal for the federal government to financially guarantee the construction and operation of new dispatchable power generation, which could include clean coal-fired plants, is expected to be taken to cabinet with the backing of the Prime Minister.
    https://outline.com/LFcdGm
    But Amy Remeikis and Paul Karp report that Turnbull has pushed back against pressure from the Nationals and some conservative Liberals to subsidise coal, arguing that backing one technology over another is a recipe for higher power prices.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/11/turnbull-pushes-back-on-coal-pressure-after-accc-report
    In Michael West’s website analyst Bruce Robertson writes that importing gas to solve the challenge of rampaging gas prices is ludicrous and only paves the way for the gas cartel to further profiteer at the expense of consumers. The answer is clear; a “domestic reservation policy” which earmarks Australian gas for Australia consumers. What is lacking is political will.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-importing-exports-will-lead-to-more-profiteering/
    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on the ACCC report.
    https://theconversation.com/consumers-let-down-badly-by-electricity-market-accc-report-99697
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that economically marginalised communities must be taken seriously or Australia will face a political backlash that threatens the established economic order, one of the Prime Minister’s top advisers , David Gruen, has warned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-must-listen-to-struggling-communities-and-act-on-inequality-top-pm-adviser-warns-20180711-p4zquu.html
    The regulatory clampdown on Australia’s heavily-scrutinised banks is now “largely done”, according to APRA overseer Wayne Byres, who has declared “the heavy lifting on lending standards” has been completed.
    https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/wayne-byres-surprise-apra-declares-mortgage-crackdown-largely-done-20180711-h12k3j-751935/?utm_campaign=featured-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link
    Confidence in house price growth and the availability of finance has plummeted with triple the number of property insiders slashing expectations.
    https://outline.com/ubp7Ne
    The APS review’s head David Thodey has announced a high-powered international reference group will act as a “sounding board” for the independent panel, including the likes of former NSW premier Mike Baird and former New Zealand prime minister Bill English. The reference group includes current and former senior public servants from the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore and New Zealand as well as former cabinet ministers.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/thodey-announces-high-profile-international-reference-group-for-aps-review-20180711-p4zqwg.html
    An explosive unfair dismissal claim alleges executives at Australia’s two largest super funds, AustralianSuper and HostPlus, “pressured” an employee to invest money in a “union-controlled” fund in which they had a conflict of interest – before sacking him when he complained.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/you-have-to-drop-this-former-exec-accuses-super-fund-of-conflicts-20180711-p4zqw6.html
    Elizabeth Knight tells us how it’s not in the interests of the banking industry’s regulator to frighten the horses. Instead, it has to walk a tightrope that ensures banks avoid risky lending without promoting a credit crunch that would damage them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/regulator-puts-a-rosy-glow-on-the-state-of-australian-bank-lending-20180711-p4zquf.html
    Michael Koziol tells us how the ABC will eventually become a digital-only media outlet and failure to invest in the broadcaster’s digital future will lead it to “wither away and cease to exist” as its chairman Justin Milne has warned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/invest-in-the-abc-s-digital-future-or-it-will-cease-to-exist-warns-chairman-20180711-p4zqsp.html
    Peter FitzSimons analyses the various carry-ons of soccer players.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/writhing-rolling-hands-on-heads-what-footballers-are-really-saying-20180711-p4zqwh.html
    This PhD student bemoans the lack of logic and communication skills present in tertiary students but I fail to see the benefit of her proposed remedy – more poetry!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-subject-students-really-need-to-study-at-university-20180711-p4zqvc.html
    Tony Featherstone weighs up the benefits and risks of the corporatisation of tertiary studies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/risks-in-too-much-business-input-in-university-degrees-20180710-p4zqoi.html
    A former senior employee of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has accused it of manipulating data on the amount of environmental water being recovered to back its claim that the “basin plan is being delivered on time and in full”. As I said yesterday this inquiry is building up a head of steam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/11/murray-darling-basin-authority-former-employee-accuses-agency-of-manipulating-data
    Paul Manafort has been treated like a “VIP” in jail, with a private bathroom and shower, a personal laptop and phone, and access to a meeting space for his legal team, Special Counsel Robert Mueller told a judge. That may have just come to an end.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/paul-manafort-treated-as-prison-vip-to-be-moved-20180712-p4zqy9.html
    Jason Wilson writes that Leyonhjelm threw out a dogwhistle to the men’s rights movement, and it appears to have been answered.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/11/mens-rights-activists-have-a-new-hero-david-leyonhjelm
    Ben Doherty writes that each time Australia delays bringing a sick child from Nauru, the stakes get higher.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/11/each-time-australia-delays-bringing-a-sick-child-from-nauru-the-stakes-get-higher
    John Warhurst provides a scorecard for women in politics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-women-in-politics-scorecard-20180711-p4zqtm.html
    Michelle Grattan reports on how the ABC chairman Justin Milne has gone on the offensive against the organisation’s critics, linking the public broadcaster to preserving the nation’s identity and strongly warning against the push to clip its digital wings.
    https://theconversation.com/abc-chairman-milne-attacks-self-serving-commercial-critics-99749
    Licences needed for coal seam gas exploration in New South Wales have been effectively extended indefinitely past their expiry date, due to a legal loophole.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/12/coal-seam-gas-nsw-licences-effectively-extended-indefinitely-due-to-legal-loophole
    Clementine Ford explains the term “toxic masculinity”. Clue: it doesn’t men all men are toxic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/now-is-not-the-time-to-wail-about-toxic-masculinity-20180711-p4zqvf.html
    The Victorian government has been criticised for delaying its decision on whether to abolish the seal of confessional for disclosures of child sexual abuse, in its response to the recommendations of the royal commission. Some critics say the Victorian government is ‘still putting the church ahead of children’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/11/victoria-criticised-for-delaying-decision-on-reporting-child-abuse-heard-in-confession
    Meanwhile Professor of Constitutional Law, Luke beck, explains in a well put together contribution why Australia does not need a Religious Discrimination Act.
    https://theconversation.com/why-australia-does-not-need-a-religious-discrimination-act-99666
    Sarah Palin has called Sacha Baron Cohen “evil, exploitative and sick” after revealing that the satirist had “duped” her into an interview for an upcoming series by posing as a wounded military veteran. This could be a fun series to watch!
    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jul/11/evil-exploitative-sick-sarah-palin-duped-sacha-baron-cohen

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with a scary contribution.

    Two little beauties from Mark David.


    From Matt Golding.


    The Pittsburgh Post’s cartoonist with Trump’s visit to London.

    Zanetti does his employer’s bidding yet again.

    David Pope on the cave rescue.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/1f368c64e34906ff4681e693bdaf146959443a3e
    Johannes Leak gets this one right.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3c8eecc794cb4de1deab9b54732150a5
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-12-2018-20180711-h12k6t.html

  16. Thanks BK. The desperation of the government to deflect attention from the fact that one third of our biggest companies pay no tax is shown in this story.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-12/personal-income-tax-dodgers-cost-federal-government-billions/9982526

    Yes $8 billion is a lot of lost tax, but in a total for income tax in 2015 of $258 billion it is less than 4%. Whereas the underpayment of tax by corporations is roportionally ten times worse. Despite this, there is no current budget policy to make corporations pay a larger share of their tax rate.
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/04/tax-revenues-rise-budget-stuck-firmly-deficit/

  17. I was referring to the cartoon itself, BK. Where’s the joke? That Bill Shorten would be lying if he claimed to have the support of Mark Latham? I don’t see how that qualifies. Maybe the answer lies in whatever the CFMEU guy is supposed to be doing, but I’ll be buggered if I can work out what that is.

  18. Socrates @ #1516 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 8:13 am

    Thanks BK. The desperation of the government to deflect attention from the fact that one third of our biggest companies pay no tax is shown in this story.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-12/personal-income-tax-dodgers-cost-federal-government-billions/9982526

    Yes $8 billion is a lot of lost tax, but in a total for income tax in 2015 of $258 billion it is less than 4%. Whereas the underpayment of tax by corporations is roportionally ten times worse. Despite this, there is no current budget policy to make corporations pay a larger share of their tax rate.
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/04/tax-revenues-rise-budget-stuck-firmly-deficit/

    The ATO had a sample of only 858 to determine this figure, is this the equivalent of single seat polling accuracy wise ?

  21. Thanks BK.

    Tony ‘Captain Catholic’ Abbott calling Obama moralising is pretty laughable. Does he not have an ounce of self-awareness?

  22. Hmmm… Trump has added $200 billion to the trade war, effective in two months time. And he is demanding that NATO countries double their defence spending to 4% of GDP.

    I bet Putin can’t wait to go huggies with his toy POTUS.

  27. Yes, that Zanetti cartoon is rather abstruse. We have a large CFMEU guy holding a halo over Bill’s head – to give him an air of virtue? Bill’s pants are on fire (liar liar), or maybe it’s the bunch of ‘how to vote’ slips burning. They would be more combustible. Did the CFMEU guy set them alight? Is Bill Shorten actually telling Longman voters that Mark Latham is praising his (Bill’s) honesty? That would be a lie, but even if it were true, would Bill want to advertise it? Does anyone in Longman care what Latham says?

    Seems to be just more Shorten bad, unions bad, Labor bad. Zanetti probably could ‘t think of anything either astute or funny before the deadline.

  30. The tone is spot on, although deploy more use of capitals. 😆

    Trump Baby@TrumpBabyUK
    2h2 hours ago
    Thank you to all my great supporters, really big progress is being made. When Little Donald found out I was in London, he wet his pants and ran away. Very unfair! Now I have to go to my very great golf course in Scotland where he is hiding. Total disgrace!

  31. Three things in below article
    1. In the group photo of Trump-NATO leaders, all others are looking at one side whereas Trump is looking the other side
    2. Germany it appears imports all its coal requirements from Australia
    3. About 15% of german electricity is generated by renewables.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1779616

  33. The Guardian has been publishing series of articles by people battling on social security. Most of them provide deep insights into living poor in Australia.

    One or two have been absurd. One person complained about struggling while keeping her horses and her car, for example. The cost of maintaining a car and of keeping two horses would have meant that she had only around $10 a week left for food and all the rest.

    This article is, IMO, the best one so far:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/12/life-on-the-breadline-despite-the-stress-i-tell-myself-the-best-things-in-life-are-free

    Two things strike me about the series. The first is external: shit happens and sometimes it is very bad shit indeed. People are thrown onto the human scrap heap by forces totally beyond their control.

    The other thing is that in our family it was drummed into us to be ready for a rainy day. Save. Save. Save. Borrow to invest. Don’t borrow to travel. Don’t think you can always depend on the government. Be ready to help each other. This came from parents who had survived two wars, been political and economic refugees, who had survived an utterly impoverished Depression (my father’s adult disposable income as a young man was five cents a week), and who had both survived shaves with real starvation. Mum hoarded food that was ten years past its use by date. So they passed along the wisdom of their lived experience. We did without all sorts of stuff as kids and are all good at managing our expectations.

    We have had 32 quarters of growth. I wonder how financially and psychologically well-prepared any of our under 35s are for adversity? It is not as if resilience training has been top of the pops.

  34. A fantastic critique of that Jonathan Chait article that came out the other day demonstrating the myriad links between Trump and Putin/Russia. Tom Nicholls is an expert in Russian affairs with over 30 years experience.

    In plowing through this history, three things should be kept in mind. First, the amount of contact Chait illustrates between Trump world and the Russians is simply staggering. Even by the standards of international business, this is an astonishing amount of interaction that involves not just Trump’s financial interests, but vertically deep ties that extend down into his family.

    Second, too many Americans do not understand that Russia’s oligarchs, millionaires, business leaders, state officials and intelligence operatives are all part of the same ecosystem. It is not possible to shake hands with just one arm of this octopus without being enveloped by the others. If Trump was in deep with the Russian criminal and financial worlds, the Russian intelligence services knew it, and so did Russia’s top spook, Putin. Trump must know this as well.

    Third, Chait’s readers should not be looking for silver bullets that either doom or exonerate Trump. Rather, they should follow the argument about a pattern of interaction that would raise the suspicions of even the most amateur intelligence analyst.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/10/trump-russia-jonathan-chait-218966

  35. C@tmomma@6:34am
    I think it is about a sum of 2000 votes that got MT the 75 and 76 seats. Number of votes wise it is bigger than what Howard got to get majority in 1998. I think Howard got more seats for less votes when compared to MT 2016 performance. William Bowe can throw mor light on it.

  36. Good detail here.

    A good news story about China’s environment is something you don’t hear every day. But a major review published today in Nature has found that China has made significant progress in battling the environmental catastrophes of the past century.

    Our team, which included 19 scientists from 16 Australian, Chinese and US institutions, reviewed China’s 16 major programs designed to improve the sustainability of its rural environment and people.

    https://theconversation.com/what-we-can-learn-from-chinas-fight-against-environmental-ruin-99681?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

  37. Boerwar:

    Absolutely.

    We were always taught to have at least 3 months worth of salary set aside not to touch. This way if you lose your job or have to take time off sick, you still have money to pay the mortgage and live on for a little while. I can’t say I’ve always had this, but I try to have something set aside that is not for touching except in an emergency.

  38. Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    3m3 minutes ago

    .@TonyAbbottMHR warns Australia can no longer depend on the backing of the US under President @realDonaldTrump

    @senbmckenzie: Well, I don’t think we’re going to be changing our defence force strategy on the back of Mr Abbott’s commentary.

  40. Z
    Abbott is right. Trump has single-handedly turned our Defence White Paper is a crock. IMO we need to fundamentally change our security policies.

  41. ‘Ven says:
    Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 9:00 am

    C@tmomma@6:34am
    I think it is about a sum of 2000 votes that got MT the 75 and 76 seats. Number of votes wise it is bigger than what Howard got to get majority in 1998’

    The Indies essentially provide the Coalition with an additional buffer of three or four seats.

  42. An explosive unfair dismissal claim alleges executives at Australia’s two largest super funds, AustralianSuper and HostPlus, “pressured” an employee to invest money in a “union-controlled” fund in which they had a conflict of interest – before sacking him when he complained.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/you-have-to-drop-this-former-exec-accuses-super-fund-of-conflicts-20180711-p4zqw6.html

    The “union-controlled fund” has 4 non-union industry directors, 2 independent directors and 3 union directors, out of a board of 9, 3 are union directors. Wonder who is backing this blokes claim?

  43. While I love the cartoons – especially Rowe – I find the cartoons lose something at times when out of context with the story they accompany (if they accompany one)

    Zanetti … well … rarely has any humour

  44. “Jason Wilson writes that Leyonhjelm threw out a dogwhistle to the men’s rights movement, and it appears to have been answered.”

    The Clementine Ford article in the dawn patrol has a linked story of 200,000 Aussie men signing up to a mens rights facebook page that was later taken down due to its feral content against women.

    200,000 is a lot of voters.

  45. Don’t you just love it when the likes of the ACCC and APRA tell you that the problems are now all fixed and all is well in the world – because Commerce and Industry have addressed their problems

    Simply, the ACCC and APRA have always been and continue to be limp organisations under a government which espouses that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation

    And consumers pay

    As we see with the Hayne RC and now the pricing regime of our privatised energy Companies

    Why have the circumstances now finally coming to the attention of the community but why only now?

    This government made every attempt to protect the banks from scrutiny of (some of only) their practices and it is only polling on the impact of increases in utility prices that has the ACCC addressing only some of the problems in those industries (with the self preservation cheer squad Mr HIH clapping loudly)

    Why are Import facilities being built for gas?

    And why only mention of retention NOT price?

    Supply is an issue

    Pricing is THE issue

    But never any mention of price – or reimbursements to the community of gouging

    All is fixed

    And life goes on

    Or so Mr HIH would have us believe

  46. Lizzie@9:01am and BW@9:09am
    Trump is systematically gutting US allies. Thanks to US we did not spend much on defence till now. Now I think Australia may have to ramp up its defence spending to the detriment of other spending. Hence, our spending should be targeted unlike Submarine spending. Like the cartoon yesterday Trump is pissing into the tent/ building.

  47. jenauthor @ #1543 Thursday, July 12th, 2018 – 7:13 am

    While I love the cartoons – especially Rowe – I find the cartoons lose something at times when out of context with the story they accompany (if they accompany one)

    Zanetti … well … rarely has any humour

    In my view Rowe is by far and away the best of our political cartoonists. And I have BK’s Dawn Patrol to thank for introducing me to them. I’d never known about his work prior to BK’s morning round up.

  49. CBUS which is the fund of choice for CFMEU members has advertisements running at present. Returns at 9.3% per annum. Hard to find other funds to match that type of return.

  50. Boris

    ‘200,000 is a lot of voters.’

    Not really.

    There were over 14, 262, 016 voters at the last election – so the 200,000 are eliminated simply by rounding down!

    And for these voters to be of any use to Senator L, they would have to be concentrated in the state he’s standing for.

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