Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  2. The morning of either Sunday 15th or 22nd July are my two picks for Gilderoy Lockhart to have a nice cup of tea with General Sir Peter at Yarralumla if he has the balls to allow the plebs have a say about his immediate future this year.

  3. There has been a LOT of noise about the traps of Trumble cancelling the by-elections.

    I still don’t think he will… he wants Labor to look weak by losing at least one of them, then wait a week, THEN call the election for the second weekend in Sept.

  5. Seeing people are exercising their minds about Turnbull calling an electin before super Saturday could someone explain please what would happen to the by-elections.

  6. Turnbull and co think they ‘won’ the last sitting fortnight.

    They think they’re going to win Longman and Braddon.

    He ‘might’ be thinking they’re on the up big time and this is his only chance?

  8. Andrew,

    Good evening to you.

    A question if I may ?

    What is your rationale behind your projection of Turnbull going either of the dates you mentioned in your post ?

    Why would he go early especially with the by elections bubbling along ?

    If he does it would suggest to me some panic rather than hubris.

    Cheers.

  12. Immigration is but one factor in population growth, and it’s not even the dominant one.

    That isn’t true.

    First, net overseas migration is a bigger factor in Australia’s most recent population growth than natural increase. Last year, Australia’s population grew by 1.7%. 62% of that was due to net overseas migration; 38% was due to natural increase.

    Second, the main reason why Australia’s natural increase is a relatively high (albeit minority) component of total population increase (38% of population growth in calendar year 2017) is that a long period of large immigration intakes since the mid-1990s has given Australia a younger age structure than it would have had otherwise.

    So immigration has fuelled the relatively high rate of natural increase.

    That is why the number of live births in Australia last year exceeded the number of deaths by 166,000 even though Australia’s fertility rate has been below replacement level for many years.

    Net overseas migration last year was 217,000.
    http://countrymeters.info/en/Australia#population_2017

    Natural increase and NOM contributed 38.0% and 62.0% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 31 December 2017.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0

  14. (includes video of Turnbull on the phone looking out over what I think is the Brisbane River)
    was he wearing flippers and mask or just his plain old hi vis

  15. A Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 live births per woman is considered the replacement level.

    Australia’s fertility rate has been below replacement level every year since 1976.
    https://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:AUS&ifdim=country&tstart=-299066400000&tend=1468159200000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

    Despite that fact, last year the number of live births in Australia exceeded the number of deaths by 166,000.

    The reason? Immigration has given Australia a younger age structure than it otherwise would have had.

  16. “Seeing people are exercising their minds about Turnbull calling an electin before super Saturday could someone explain please what would happen to the by-elections.”

    The by-elections would be cancelled. It’s happened before, at least at state level for NSW as I recall (1976?).

  17. “Replacement level fertility” is the total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. This rate is roughly 2.1 children per woman for most countries, although it may modestly vary with mortality rates.

    http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-replacement-level-fertility

    Since 1976, the total fertility rate for Australia has been below replacement level.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3301.0Main%20Features42013

  18. The other reason why I think an early election is more likely than not, is once you get into October, you’ve got two VERY small windows to call the election without interfering with state elections or the Budget.

    So, you’ve got the Victorian election on 24 Nov, with caretaker starting around 19 October. Then you head into December, which… no. Assuming you keep the rule of not calling an election until after Australia Day (yes, I know Qld 2015) – you’re looking at the first weekend in March, when NSW will already be in caretaker. I know people disagree with me that mucking about with the Budget isn’t a big deal, but I think Labor will exploit it and it is a risk. Which is why I think April and May are both out.

    That’s my logic.

    Aug 3 – October 13
    or
    March 2

  19. Hi Doyley

    I guess I’m being a bit paranoid, however I also suspect that Malcolm thinks that he’s clawed back a couple of points from last year and the ‘aspirational’ voters might vote for greed in an election campaign, but he has also been told he won’t win any of the 3 byelections they are contesting. ScoMo might actually be in a position to release some half bogus treasury budget update about the rivers of revenue coming in (ignoring that the projections are entirely short term), thus allowing truffles to announce that stage 2 and 3 of their now legislated tax cuts will be brought forward if only the plebs do the right thing and return the government.

    CPG will swing in behind – zero scrutiny of the magic pudding. Maximum ‘labor tax grab, liberal tax cuts, but services are actually same same’ messaging with a big fingers crossed that together the Gallery and the Libs can flip that 48-52 2PP around.

    Well that’s the theory anyway. I still think Trumble will wait until after the NSW election hoping something will turn up.

  20. My thoughts are that Turnbull would go ahead with the by-elections on July 28. If he loses them all, no worries, that’s what normally happens and the mainstream media will give him cover. If he picks up one or two seats, he can go in October-November, especially if he has the NEG sewn up*.

    Shades of 1982-83. Flinders by-election went well for the other Malcolm (tiny swing against the Government) so he calls the 1983 election 7-8 months early. We know how that worked out. Maybe the ‘Liberal’ by-election winner(s) get to repeat Peter Reith’s feat and never get to take up their seat(s), hopefully, unlike Reith, that turns out to be forever.

    * any NEG acceptable to the Coalition Far Right faction should be immediately shredded by an incoming Labor Government

  21. Steve
    Thanks
    Might be a good thing. Planning to be camped by a billabong somewhere on super Saturday so unless Turnbull jumps I will miss the fun of the count.

  22. Andrew,

    Cheers for your reply.

    It certainly will be a illuminating next two or so weeks.

    BTW, I think being paranoid is not something of which you could be accused.

    Cheers.

  24. Re Australia’s population, as Nicholas says, we have a younger age structure than our natural rate of increase would support because of immigration, younger than most developed countries.

    If immigration were stopped tomorrow (not a course of action I am recommending), our population would continue to increase for possibly another generation, drifting upwards by a few million, before stabilising. After a period if stability it would decline at an ever increasing rate as the population aged.

  25. https://www.camdenadvertiser.com.au/story/5521279/shire-mayor-to-run-as-independent-in-state-election/?cs=1436

    Mayor Judith Hannan announced she will run as an independent candidate in the state election next March.

    The Theresa Park resident will go up against Liberal candidate Nathaniel Smith, who lives in San Souci, and Labor candidate Jo-Ann Davidson, who lives in Bowral.

    Cr Hannan said she decided to run after the Liberal Party endorsed an “out-of-towner”.

    “Wollondilly is not like Game of Thrones,” she said. “A person can’t just come in and take over our land.

    What do you think are her chances?

  30. Visited an Aged and Disability Home today

    Staff levels were in evidence as was their care, interaction and concern

    As was their Nationalty

    Exclusively

    No doubt they are at the lower end of the wages pie, and will enjoy $10- a week in tax relief

    In my view they deserve more on both scores

  41. Reachtel polling today 11th July.
    The last poll on 11th May was a disaster for the LNP.
    Desperately seeking some love is Malcolm before the RWNJs and supporters give up on the toff and take matters into their own hands.

  42. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1469 Wednesday, July 11th, 2018 – 9:10 pm

    CPG will swing in behind – zero scrutiny of the magic pudding. Maximum ‘labor tax grab, liberal tax cuts, but services are actually same same’ messaging with a big fingers crossed that together the Gallery and the Libs can flip that 48-52 2PP around.

    Doesn’t work given that Labor has already promised larger tax cuts than the Libs. Unless you’re rich or a business, anyways. People can’t possibly be that stupid.

  43. “People can’t possibly be that stupid.”

    Think bout how feckless the ~16% of ‘others’ stuck in the middle of the LNP on the right and Labor/Green voters on the left actually are. You might want to reconsider that statement.

    The ‘hope’ of being in the top 10% of income earners, versus the reality of being just another member of the herd. Yep. I reckon some are that stupid. But will there be enough sheeples for Truffles to steal another term? That is the question …

  49. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1492 Wednesday, July 11th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    “People can’t possibly be that stupid.”

    Think bout how feckless the ~16% of ‘others’ stuck in the middle of the LNP on the right and Labor/Green voters on the left actually are. You might want to reconsider that statement.

    The ‘hope’ of being in the top 10% of income earners, versus the reality of being just another member of the herd. Yep. I reckon some are that stupid. But will there be enough sheeples for Truffles to steal another term? That is the question …

    I think, how many there are of those ‘poor'($350000 per annum!?!), up against it voters, will decide the election, and can be made to believe in the election campaign that they will benefit from the Coalition’s ‘aspirational’ policies, even if they aren’t on 350 large pa themselves but a bit more than the median.

    Compared with the number of voters, at the lower to lower-middle end, that believe in Labor’s promise of more and better services and greater tax relief for them.

    How many there are of those 2 groups, in the middle and swinging, will decide the election.

  50. How many idiots did it take voting against their own self interest did it take to return Turnbull at the last election? Not a lot.

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