BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)

The addition of Newspoll’s state breakdowns to the BludgerTrack results in a net gain of two for the Coalition on the national seat projection.

There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.

As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)”

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  1. DG
    ‘Apply the same zero tolerance to them as you do to the Greens.’
    Just go back to the original point I was making about protesting.
    I don’t protest against the Greens for the same reason I don’t protest against Trump.
    At best it would not make any difference. At worst it would make things worse.

  2. DG

    “That path leads to appeasement, and Neville Chamberlain is proof beyond all reasonable doubt that appeasement of these people is akin to surrender”

    Taking this debate on a complete tangent, I’d argue that Chamberlain was no appeaser, rather he was playing for time in Munich. As Chancellor he began the process of rearmanent in 1935, especially with respect to the RAF. As Premier in 1937 he saw the overall defence budget increase to it representing an eyewatering 50% of GNP by the oubreak of WW2. He was especially supportive of Dowding, the creation of the very first unified air defence system – including all the essential ingredients deployed in the Battle of Britain (the coast watch, upgraded telephone system, radar, the purchase of not just one, but two monoplane fighters, the air control bunkers that tied the system all together).

    The cabinet papers of 1938 – once they were released under the 30 year rule – leave no doubt that everybody knew war was coming, but equally prove the unequivocal advice that in mid 1938 Britain was simply not ready for war. It’s actually fascinating to note that by May 1940 the British were actually better equipped than their German counterparts, possessing better tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and logistical support vehicles BUT unfortunetely also possessing a lapse in battle tactics.

    Whereas Guadarian had learned his WW1 lessons from Monash very well, most of the equivilent military thinkers in the British military establishment had either died, retired, been cashereed (Fuller) or effectively sidelined (Montgomery at the start). The French were in no better shape in terms of leadership, even though their Army was also well equipped. I digress. The point is however, the reason why Britain had the best air defence system and – on paper – the best equipped army in 1940 was in large measure due to Chamberlain – a man who knew war was coming, and did his best to prepare the nation for it.

  3. DG
    I am actually having quite a bit of success by explaining to Greens supporters how the Greens have failed because they are locking up the environment vote without getting an environmental return for their efforts.
    It resonates nicely because it is a clearly argued point of view and the evidence is clear.

  4. John Reidy@8:09pm
    Who was the MSM journalist who was scathing on Fraudband?
    It was certainly not Hartcher, David Crowe, Murphyroo or Murdoch press.

  5. A-E
    Quite so. But in their haste to feel good about protesting they are not at all interested in assessing the efficacy or even possible counter-productive nature of their actions.
    One assumes that to be consistent they would be invading the following countries for human rights abuses rather than appease them: Saudi Arabia, Iran, North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmmar, the Philippines, China and Russia.


    This kind of bullshit really disgusts me. Its plain as day $ for the boys from the Libs. All govts will bend over to some extent to business groups, but this is way over the top.
    A bit topical for me as have scientific mates close to a process about tour licencing here. To do with swimming with humpbacks in the NW. Great outing if you get whales which some friends did last week. 6 to swim with. 🙂 But, the business lobby is pushing for relaxing the rules against the scientific advice. The concern is not just for the whales, but the injuries they can cause to tourists and who the frack is then liable. FFS the operators want “calf” defined by size, not if they are still dependent on the mother for milk (which ALL calves are until they get back to Antarctic waters). Possibility of tourist getting between a mother and dependent calf……dont go there. 🙁

    When govt prioritises a business based group over its own science people you know something dodgey is going on. The Libs are being rudely slap in your face obvious about it though.

  7. Tristo @ #485 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    It is noteworthy the opposition to Bill Shorten’s leadership is coming from the right and especially NSW right of the ALP. In contrast the subversion to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is coming from the right of the Liberal Party and the National Party.

    What makes you say this!?! I’d like some evidence please. It would need to be from the horse’s mouth and one of the top people from the NSW Right. It would also need to be verifiably from the last 7 days because I can tell you that at the recent NSW State ALP Conference there was absolutely no talk along those lines and quite the opposite.

  8. A-E
    I have just finished a rather thorough read up of the Japanese campaigns in Burma, Malaya, Singapore and the NEI.
    The leadership shortcomings on our side, both civil and military, were stupendous.
    There was one personal plus. While tracing the Japanese lines of invasion through Java I came across the hospital wherein I was born.

  9. DG
    I count every person I have persuaded as a success. You are entitled to measure the ‘success’ of the protests against Trump in your own way. How is it going, BTW? Do you think the protests will prevent him even from becoming a two term POTUS?

  10. “I can tell you that at the recent NSW State ALP Conference there was absolutely no talk along those lines and quite the opposite.”

    That was my take away from conference as well. the FPLP NSW Right is locked in behind Bill.

    … of course that could all change if the byelections end up disasterous. Or there is some other ‘Black Swan’ event. But the Albo for Leader camapign is a figment of the LNP and CPG.

  11. A-E

    ‘But the Albo for Leader camapign is a figment of the LNP and CPG.’

    And of course is used by Greens trolls.

  12. GhostWhoVotes

    26s26 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (0) ALP 51 (0) #auspol

  13. doGs. Been out of touch a couple of weeks on the road and still the Shorten leadership stuff? ALP machine is locked into Bill to the next election fer sure.

    ALP #leadershit benefits ONLY the Libs and helps distract from their own simmering issues.

    Elect the ALP to Govt and you get a party with an actual, viable policy suite and a leader who can lead.

    Elect the Lib/Nats to Govt and you get a party with no real policies (apart from look after their donors) and a leader full owned by the nastier of his parties factions.

    Meanwhile we hopefully get to see the Libs humbled at the by least in Mayo. 🙂

  14. Well, am off to bed.

    It does rather seem as if the righteous protesters doth protest righteously too much: all that vital energy going where Trump wants it to go in the way in which Trump wants it to go.

    IMO the people who WILL seriously hurt Trump are the US farmers if Trump’s global war on free trade succeeds in hurting them in their hip pockets.

    Sweet dreams to one and all.

  15. i
    Whoops missed this one:

    ‘ALP #leadershit benefits ONLY the Libs’ … and the Greens. The Greens love Labor leadershit.

  16. “What is Downer The Younger afraid of?”….

    The nibbles weren’t up to Georgina’s standards…. She is a girl of refined tastes, you know….

  17. bw

    Getting back to the subject of “decent Republicans”. These would be the same people who allowed the party of Lincoln to morph into the party of Reagan, and then allowed that to morph into the party of Trump.

    They are just as guilty of what the Republican party has become as their supporters who brandish swastikas and confederate flags at rallies.

    Fvck ’em. They deserve no sympathy and no quarter.

  18. The Simon Benson headline screams Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull leaves Bill Shorten in the dust

    But when you get to the end of the story, tucked away is:

    “Satisfaction with Turnbull’s performance, however, fell a point to 41 per cent while those dissatisfied rose one to 49 per cent.

    Shorten’s numbers improved slightly with those dissatisfied with him falling a point to 56 per cent while those happy with his performance remaining steady at 32 per cent.

  19. Here’s hoping the great ditherer will go to govo house and call an early one for Aug 18. Because you know. 51/49, that’s the sort of gap you can close on the campaign trail.

    Just do it!

  20. @Dan

    We could use same methods they want to use on Refugees..

    Use Guns and Detention Camps, see how they like it after 10 years.

  21. “poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) ON 7 (+1) #aus”

    the Oz take on this will be ‘labor vote falls’ and PPM.

  22. @Boer:

    “There was one personal plus. While tracing the Japanese lines of invasion through Java I came across the hospital wherein I was born.”

    That IS fascinating.

  23. “#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (0) ALP 51 (0) #auspol”

    That’s consecutive negative Newspoll N. 36 for the Truffle, isn’t it?
    His record is going to be rather difficult to beat…. but the leader who is going to lead the Liberal Party in opposition after the election will try, I am sure.

  24. @Fulvio:

    “So on the basis of last election preferences about 53 ALP 47 LNP two PP?”

    I’d say probably 52.3 – 47.7 – exactly where Bludger Track currently sits.

  25. Boerwar @ #471 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 8:21 pm

    What might any protests achieve?

    They register that the public does not support or approve of Trump. Which is far better than not doing that.

    In this case the protests against Trump seem to me to be validating Trump for his supporters.

    Validating in what way? Trump’s supporters supposedly elected Trump because he promised he’d fix the system and make their lives better. People protesting Trump doesn’t show that anyone’s life has been made better.

    Though anyway, I’m ready to declare anyone who still supports Trump at this point as officially being a lost cause. I don’t care if these people feel their opinions are somehow being validated. They’re enemies of humanity, decency, and the rule of law. Fuck ’em.

    Trump himself is a narcissist so it is certain that the protests will do anything other than confirm him in his own views.

    You’re saying if people didn’t protest Trump maybe he’d, like, suddenly change his mind about being a racist, Muslim-bashing, woman-abusing, proto-fascist prick?

    Trump had years and years of not being protested, and that change never happened. The idea that continued non-protest can somehow help or accomplish anything at all seems fantastical.

    To the extent that the protests are uncivil, they validate Trump’s incivility.

    Nah. I mean, that’s a line that gets run all the time, but no, just no. Trump lies, and slanders, name-calls, and gets up to any number of disgraceful and uncivil things. And he occupies the highest public office in the land.

    No amount of incivility by regular, run-of-the-mill citizens validates anything Trump does. The standards for a President are higher than the standards for Joe Schmoe in the street.

  26. Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) ON 7(+1)
    Turnbull: Approve 41 (-1) Disapprove 49 (+1)
    Shorten: Approve 32 (0) Disapprove 56 (-1)
    Preferred PM: Turnbull 48 (+2) Shorten 29 (-2)
    Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (0) ALP 51 (0)

  27. Preferred PM: Turnbull 48 (+2) Shorten 29 (-2)

    You can see why Turnbull has gone for the, ‘Vote for me for President of Longman!’ route.

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