There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.
As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.
Full results through the link below.
Another sign from the anti-Trump protests:
Why would my model need to be revised if Labor did indeed win 86 seats?
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1018429782072217601/d1m285Pq?format=jpg&name=600×314
I protested for around 40 years. Some worked. Others were probably iffy in terms of their outcomes. Others did not work at all. They were FAIL.
My assessment, FWIW, is that the demonstrations against Trump are, on balance, counter productive.
Whoops. I protested on various occasions during a period of 40 years.
Boerwar @ #454 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 5:46 pm
The women’s marches in the US, principally against Trump have led to substantial numbers of women running for elected office across the country. That’s a serious win in my view and proof that demonstrations can actually lead to something meaningful.
Who was Nikki Widmar?
getting his name so horribly wrong just adds to the insults he faced
I am thinking, based in current polling Labor will get 80 seats.
Like most ALP supporters, not confident and always concerned about events, and assistance for the government by the media.
Witness the ongoing scrutiny of Dastyari compared to McGrath.
Like any general election it is 150 by elections, all with different factors.
“My assessment, FWIW, is that the demonstrations against Trump are, on balance, counter productive.”
In what sense?
From what I’ve heard / and seen the sense I get out of the US and their various days of protest is that they are building important activist networks, they are positively engaging a very very broad range of the community over a range of issues and they are keeping a growing base keep energised for November.
I can’t think of any ‘counter-productive’ outcomes.
I’ve heard some suggest that by energising this frightens the forces of evil and darkness and they feed of this energy. I don’t buy that, evil never sleeps and feeds on complacency and cynical detachment.
The broad centre left in Australia needs to be a lot less complacent and detached if we want to start killing and torturing less people in concentration camps and actually doing smart good things on climate change, on education, on the economy, on health on … you know all those things
Simon² Katich® @ #432 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
LOL
Confessions@5:31pm
1.How did coalition get away with Fraudband policy?
Answer: MSM and CPG
2. Is it compulsory to sign upto Fraudband?
Downer the latest probably too busy having High Tea (lobster and Penfolds Grange) with her fellow Adelaide Hills raised personality, Bishop, who is telling of the depth and warmth she spread around before also departing Adelaide
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-05-25/the-day-winmar-drew-the-line-in-the-sand
FYI
Essentially yes, unless you want to live with no internet access.
WWP@7:56pm
Agree with your post. I can only think of a couple of counter-productive things.
You know how nuts/ evil Trump base is. In polling it stayed at 40%. Also, it will make GOP prepare to rigg the November elections. Don’t forget GOP is in power in most states ( I thing it is over 30 states.). Do not underestimate evil.
Yes the NBN will be replacing existing land line connections, which wouldn’t be a bad thing if it were any good, or to rephrase that if it were consistently good.
The government will be able to point out certain installations or even entire suburbs with ‘good’ NBN which will muddy the message.
Who was the mainstream journalist, around 3 months ago that posted a scathing critique of the NBN, based on their own experience, after years of acquiescence, accepting the government’s, no Turnbull’s
, line?
@ Ven & Fess
“2. Is it compulsory to sign upto Fraudband?
Essentially yes, unless you want to live with no internet access.”
Umm, no. Actually. You can avoid the NBN Fraudband if:
(a) you are lucky enough to have access to the FTTP aspect oif the network (some lucky 2 million households); or
(b) lucky enough to get access to the consolation prize – FTTC or FTTB; or
(c) are willing to go mobile only via the 3G/4G/5G options.
Otherwise, yes – its either ‘off the grid’ altogether or Fraudband.
Confessions@8:02pm
I did not know that. I will hold out as long as I can. Currently it is crap.
Given I live in regional Australia, I repeat what I said earlier: Essentially yes, unless you want to live with no internet access.
I am one of the lucky households with FTTP … and we are holding off moving to downsize because of that.
It is a difficult decision — we have a massive house for 2 people BUT any nearby suburb we want too move to is not connected and our work depends on high speed broadband.
WWP
What might any protests achieve?
In this case the protests against Trump seem to me to be validating Trump for his supporters.
I don’t believe that the protests have changed anyone’s mind about anything at all.
Trump himself is a narcissist so it is certain that the protests will do anything other than confirm him in his own views.
Potentially, protests may or may not be a substitute for a conversation, or complementary to a dialogue, a discussion about policy, civil discourse. In this case, IMO, the protests do nothing of the sort.
To the extent that the protests are uncivil, they validate Trump’s incivility.
They’re absolutely not counterproductive. They’ve got more people running and more people getting involved across the board.
The scale of the protests and the diversity of the crowds help support people to be active and get involved, realising this is not a fringe.
There is nothing civil to be done about Trump and his agenda. It has to be beaten, it cannot be reasoned with. You try to think that it can? Then you’ll get run over.
It’s why you see the surge of activity and enthusiasm. The protests are reflective, but trying to convince Trump supporters (not voters, but actual supporters) is a total waste of time.
Optus sent us notifications saying we had to contact them to continue the service (but nothing would change – we just had to ring them) or we would have no service past a certain cut off date
The contact resulted in a new Contract being entered into (the previous one had terminated some time prior so was month by month), an outcome which was not explained as was not that we could change provider (which to be fair we never considered because we only wanted the continuation of what we had)
I did read that Optus were going to refund for misleading but have seen nothing
The NBN service commenced with them coming into the home – and the drop outs were continuing and frequent resulting in complaints to the Ombudsman who was excellent
3 months free service, refunds for inconvenience and costs
The drop outs continue but now generally are fixed by switching the power off for a few minutes
But we did go days without any internet
Then there was the billing, billed for both the old and new services which were different account numbers and the credits going to the old account so in credit form the reimbursements but we were being billed on the new account
You would not believe the difficulty of trying to say “just transfer the credit to the new account” but they eventually sent us a cheque!!!
j
There is no evidence that the protests are triggering people to run. None at all.
What ‘involvement’? If the protests ARE the involvement then, IMO, they are counterproductive – as described above.
@John Reidy
That seems like a reasonable prediction if both Turnbull (near certainty) and Bill Shorten (highly probable) are the elections are their parties or Coalition’s at the election. Especially given the amount of rage from rusted on Coalition supporters on twitter towards Malcolm Turnbull and his government I have encountered on twitter is breathtaking. I believe that will seriously handicap the efforts of the Turnbull government to be re-elected. Especially given the government has had to make truly a dog mess of compromises to try and quell the base. That makes Labor’s position quite principled by comparison.
Labor does not face this sort of opposition from the party base supporters, which is good. My only fault with Labor and it’s leadership, they aren’t more radical enough.
Proposing the following; abolishing negative gearing for new property purchases (gradually phasing out negative gearing), ending capital tax gains concessions for property and severely cutting skilled migration in areas where are pretty of applicants for the positions advertised would be enough for Labor in my opinion to win in a landslide greater than 1983 or 2007.
…and when Georgina doesn’t turn up, the Libs will use the photos of the candidates together to ‘prove’ that Sharkie is aligned with Labor and the Greens.
Sometimes wonder when I read nbn conversations if people who do not have it understand how it works.
The NBN Co builds the infrastructure. That’s all. You don’t buy a phone or internet service from them.
When the NBN is available in your area you need to sign up with a third party, such as Telstra BigPond, Iinet, TPG , etc for their services such as phone and internet.
There is usually a deadline of some months in the future to make the switch but at some point after that the exisiting telephone service is turned off. There is no choice.
In my case the option to cancel the telstra home phone and the adsl service it used and switch to a faster service at less cost was a no brainer.
Edit. Observer your problem may be with Optus not nbn co.
Some third parties are better than others.
T
‘Labor does not face this sort of opposition from the party base supporters, which is good.’
What Labor DOES face is continual wear and tear and abrasion and undermining and greens-anting from the Greens.
If the Greens supporters applied to Di Natale the standards they apply to Shorten they would throw Di Natale out of the political window tomorrow.
It is an absolute scandal that not a single Greens anywhere or at any time has questioned Di Natale about where he is going to get his two trillion dollars plus to pay for his UBI.
What’s your evidence? Other than some vague offense to your sensibilities?
If you don’t think the historic surge in women running for office wasn’t linked to the movements behind the Women’s March… there were events specifically designed to get women to run… that’s just wilful.
The protests against the initial Muslim bans drove the States to sue the Government.
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good (people) to do nothing.
@Boerwar
I would argue the Greens act as a outlet for radicals to be p****** outside the tent rather
than inside it, which by the way is occurring in the federal Coalition at the moment. Because neither One Nation, Australian Conservatives, Katter’s Australia Party or the Australia Liberty Alliance can provide that kind of outlet.
And if you want internet access without using the NBN use your mobile phone or, as I do, when I am travelling, use a tablet with a SIM card.
The economics of that might not stack up too well for home use.
Or find a handy bar, cafe or Mac Donald’s with free wifi.
Ven @ #461 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
Depends on the type of NBN available in your area.
If you are already on ASDL and the NBN only offers fixed wireless for your area, then you can stay on ASDL.
But you need to check for your area.
From when the NBN becomes live in your area you then have a grace period of up to 18 months to sign up any time after the 18 month period has expired so will landline as the NBN uses the real crappy VOIP system that suffers time laggs and often suffers echo’s
I’ve always thought that protest rallies were basically circle jerks. maybe in America they build some type of momentum, but given how fickle democrat leaning voters are, I reckon the support base they build is transitory.
The real problem in america is – no matter what the DNC does to make politics sexy and accessible (even permitting an old fraud like Bernie to run as a Democrat and rolling out the welcome wagon for indepedents to participate in the primaries and caucuses) in mosts elections only half of all potential demorcats find a way to do something elese – anything else – rather than cast a ballot for the democrat on the ticket. Even when some messiah like momemntum builds behind a ‘rock star’ candidate like B. Clinton or Obama and they win, the attitude is then ‘job done’ and there is no follow up by the democrat voters to turn aout again at either the mid terms or for the successor democrat candidate after the rock star retires.
I doubt there is anything that can be done about this. I reckon its a collective mental illness amongst progressives. Its a bitter irony that the dumb as all fuck republicans seem to win every god damn always simply because about 30% of their 45% by population demogaphic turns out to vote. Even for a shit gibbon.
Turning to 2020. I reckon Trump will run and win. He knows that 63 million (maybe up to 66 million with popultaion growth and a collapse in the Libertarian and ‘never Trump’ republican vote) will turn up and vote. Frankly I see no democrat ‘rock stars’ – especially a candidate that will unite ‘progressives’, moderates and middle of the road independents. It simply doesnt matter that Trumps populatity is constantly below 50%, or even 40% – he only needs 28% to turn out and vote for him and then the pressure is on for the democrats to get out 50%+ of their potential voter base.
They (democrats) are suckers for voter suppression tactics – that’s why Putin was all over that and why the various Trump proxies conspired. It was crude, treasonous, but as the last 40 years have shown (even absent the treason, remember Willy Horten) brutally effective. It’s an even money bet that democrats will ‘find a way’ to fuck it up.
True Tristo, the dissatisfaction with Turnbull from the party members is a site to behold.
I think that has been a big factor in Turnbull’s actions as a PM, trying to win over the party members, not just his backbench.
To be honest most ALP members would like to see more left policies from Shorten and his team, but the priority is to win.
That doesn’t mean sacrificing policies, but argueing for them in government.
It is noteworthy the opposition to Bill Shorten’s leadership is coming from the right and especially NSW right of the ALP. In contrast the subversion to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is coming from the right of the Liberal Party and the National Party.
@John Reidy
I sort of agree with you,
Given a increasing number of older people are becoming concerned that their children and grandchildren face poor prospects of getting a home such reforms to both negative gearing and the capital gains tax for residential property with the right pitch can be a vote winner.
I also argue deep cuts to the immigration intake is automatically a big vote winner, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where high levels of migration have contributed to massive strains on infrastructure. Arguing that high levels of immigration are not justified given the lack of genuine skills shortages in many sectors of the economy is very sensible. The authors at the Macrobusiness blog have argued that alone would ensure a landslide win for either party adopting it.
j
You are making a number of assertions as if they are truisms. You intuit therefore you believe?
Deciding to march does not necessarily make people decide to run.
There is no evidence that demonstrates that states sued the Government because of protests. In fact a better explanation is that those states which were always going to use legal recourse against the Trump Administration did so. Those states which were always going to avoid using legal recourse against the Trump Administration avoided it. There were protests in both kinds of states.
I suggest that the drivers for the ‘triumph of evil’ are many and varied. Further, good people may act effectively in other ways than protesting. I suggest that actively supporting election campaigns is probably the single most effective a good person can do: no marches or protests required.
On the basis of global evidence over the past dozen or so years in dozens of states, one would be forgiven for believing that protesting has been, if anything, an effective precursor for the triumph of evil.
‘Tristo says:
Sunday, July 15, 2018 at 8:35 pm
@Boerwar
I would argue the Greens act as a outlet for radicals to be p****** outside the tent rather
than inside it, which by the way is occurring in the federal Coalition at the moment. Because neither One Nation, Australian Conservatives, Katter’s Australia Party or the Australia Liberty Alliance can provide that kind of outlet.’
The Greens have been pissing on, all over, and into Labor’s tent since day one.
Boerwar @ #471 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 6:21 pm
How do you have “civil discourse” with these people?
And please, none of this “they go low, we go high” shit. That path leads to appeasement, and Neville Chamberlain is proof beyond all reasonable doubt that appeasement of these people is akin to surrender.
Or you can take the boerwar path instead and sit on your arse and post anti-Greens diatribes on a psephology website which is a form of appeasement by non sequitur.
Aux armes citoyens.
Hugh, Elon bases his “business case” on a million people going to Mars. Not 100 thousand. And certainly not a thousand, which is my estimate of the likely number of people willing and able to go to Mars on an effectively one way trip.
There have always been rich people willing to do stupid things. Just not enough to create a viable Mars colony. Also, a million dollars doesn’t really factor in the cost of creating a self sustaining economy with ten thousand different specialised skills and a trillion dollars worth of imported machinery.
One part of the government, Dutton and other Queensland MPs are well attuned to anti immigration sentiment, and will campaign on it, even if they don’t cut much more than what they have.
The rest of the government, especially Turnbull and the treasurer are relying on the ‘growth’ from immigration to meet their targets over the next 4-10 years, to pay for the personal and corporate tax cuts, they cannot cut the immigration rate.
Labor should campaign on equity, the immigration rate could halve overnight but not necessarily leave people better off. Certainly review it, and pick the best rate, but ensure the benefits of what growth we have are shared properly.
@Boerwar
The only headache the Greens bring to Labor recently has been the mandatory detention and turning back of boats what people consider asylum seekers issue.
@John Reidy
However if Labor were to propose drastic immigration cuts that would expose the Coalition’s efforts as a smoke and mirrors approach (which it is), also it puts the Greens seriously offside. Because by logic the Greens should be supporting lower immigration numbers and Zero population growth. Plus that would win votes for Labor off those intending to vote One Nation. I would argue it would be a huge game changer politically and that issue would pretty much dominate over everything else.
DG
I suggest you are making the false assumption that all of the people who support Trump are neo-Nazis. Will they listen to reason? I doubt it. Does marching against the neo-Nazis in a sort of communal cortege of contempt make the Neo-Nazis feel better or worse?
Debasing the vagina in order to make a point about Trump does not debase Trump because he is already there. It does rather call into question the common sense of the person who appears to think that because Trump is there already, it is either sensible or ethical to join him there.
My target would be decent Republicans and conservatives of whom there are many millions. Shoving them all in with the Neo Nazis both conceptually and by way of emoting, rating and hating, suits Trump and his political manipulation machine right down to the ground.
You got nicely screwed Poroti..
‘Tristo says:
Sunday, July 15, 2018 at 8:55 pm
@Boerwar
The only headache the Greens bring to Labor recently has been the mandatory detention and turning back of boats what people consider asylum seekers issue.’
Labor has to pour disproportionate resources into seats because the Greens do so. The Greens constantly wedge Labor on every single thing, damaging Labor all the time. The Greens spread lies such as Liberal and Labor are the same. Etc, etc, etc.
There is no ‘only’ with the Greens. They know they have to bash and smash Labor to gain seats. If the net result is a series of reactionary governments then the Greens have made it plain that this does not matter at all. Every single Labor Government in the past twenty years has been betrayed in important ways by the Greens.
In terms of mobilizing the youth vote, the Greens would clearly prefer a reactionary government every single time.
One of the standard Greens acid attacks on Labor is always to want more than Labor is able to commit to. The beauty of this tactic for the Greens is that they are totally unaccountable.
For example, Di Natale has committed to spending over two trillion dollars on his UBI.
For the Greens, it is as easy as that to outbid Labor.
Boerwar @ #493 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 6:56 pm
Wrong. Embarrass them into submission.
Apply the same zero tolerance to them as you do to the Greens.
Isn’t it passing strange how you continue to make posts that claim (wtte), “the only good Green is a dead Green”, yet you want to appeal to the “better nature” of people who have zero tolerance for human rights, diversity and basic freedoms. If these people had a “better nature” side to them they wouldn’t be Republicans/Tories/LNP supporters in the first place.
@Boerwar
The Greens don’t pose much of a threat to Labor, especially their vote in the polls have been pretty stable averaging 10%. However a credible, well led right wing populist party would pose a huge threat to the Coalition (especially the National Party and Liberal MP’s in outer suburban, provincial and rural and electorates). Such a party would be polling around 10-15% of the primary vote and these voters would not be likely to preference the Coalition in a 80-20 ratio like the Greens do for Labor. It is similar to the challenge the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) posed towards the Tories and could still do if Theresa May does not achieve a Hard Brexit (which the UKIP party and many Tories want).
Bummer – Porte out
DG
‘Wrong. Embarrass them into submission.’
There is no evidence that protesting is changing the minds of decent Republicans. None at all. In fact, just to close the circle, to the extent that people behave badly during protests, they are probably putting off decent Republicans.
Further, if you frame this as a battle in which decent Republicans will be forced to submit, you are probably not going to get anywhere at all.