BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)

The addition of Newspoll’s state breakdowns to the BludgerTrack results in a net gain of two for the Coalition on the national seat projection.

There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.

As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. Well folks I have just connected to Truffles’ you beaut Fraudband, must say a very easy process. Had to before disconnection of ordinary line. Ah memories of being told that in the following March I was to get FTTP…………… unfortunately it turned out to be the first March after the Abbott government became a thing 🙁 So that dream ended.

    Intertube speed on Truffles schemozzle. Ping 0.17 Download 18.9 Mbps Upload 0.9 . Conclusion ? Tens of billions spent to get a SFA download speed difference and an even slower upload speed.

  2. poroti:

    I’m holding out until the last possible moment to sign onto Fraudband too. Not looking forward to the higher monthly cost for an inferior service.

    Seriously, how has the coalition been able to get away with this policy travesty and total waste of taxpayer funds?

  4. poroti @ #399 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    Well folks I have just connected to Truffles’ you beaut Fraudband, must say a very easy process. Had to before disconnection of ordinary line. Ah memories of being told that in the following March I was to get FTTP…………… unfortunately it turned out to be the first March after the Abbott government became a thing 🙁 So that dream ended.

    Intertube speed on Truffles schemozzle. Ping 0.17 Download 18.9 Mbps Upload 0.9 . Conclusion ? Tens of billions spent to get a SFA download speed difference and an even slower upload speed.

    I am still waiting 18 months after most of the town was connected to fttn. Some new builds have fttp. We are in a small pocket that has not been activated. We were being told August, now October. Hoping the reason is that we might get fibre to the curb.

  6. Confessions says:

    I’m holding out until the last possible moment to sign onto Fraudband too. Not looking forward to the higher monthly cost for an inferior service.

    Fraudband’s blurb tells me that I will change over to same conditions as current Telstra plan. We shall see.

  7. Are we expecting the next Newspoll tonight? It’s easy to lose track these days.

    Dont wait for Godot.

  8. @citizen

    I am interested in Alternative History and in a timeline which I started and abandoned where Coalition won the 1990 federal election, I had Mark Latham who served as a treasurer in a Beazley Labor government is now leader of a political party called “Alternative for Australia” which is similar to the Alternative for Germany party. Therefore; I don’t find it a stretch with him leading One Nation.

  11. Not every nbn story is a nightmare.

    Apart from a minor hiccup with connection dates my FTTN service has been working well for a month or so.

    The speed is about 10mbps which is what I signed up for and between two and ten times better than the adsl it replaced.

    It is costing me less than the set up I had before because I no longer pay a landline rental, just one payment to ISP for internet and phone.

    That is not to say it could not have been better but it suits me.

  12. poroti @ #404 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    Confessions says:

    I’m holding out until the last possible moment to sign onto Fraudband too. Not looking forward to the higher monthly cost for an inferior service.

    Fraudband’s blurb tells me that I will change over to same conditions as current Telstra plan. We shall see.

    Do share your experiences as the promotional material I’ve received, not just from Telstra but from other providers, has me paying anything from potentially $5 to $20 per month more than I’m currently paying, depending on which provider I go with.

  13. I haven’t given up hope on America, yet:

    I was educated a Democrat from my boyhood,” a Republican delegate confided to his colleagues at Iowa’s constitutional convention in 1857. “Faithfully, I did adhere to that party until I could no longer act with it. Many things did I condemn ere I left that party, for my love of party was strong. And when I did, at last, feel compelled to separate from my old Democratic friends, it was like tearing myself away from old home associations.”

    As often seems the case today, American politics in the 1850s were nearly all-consuming and stubbornly tribal. So it was hard—and bitterly so—for hundreds of thousands of Northern Democrats to abandon the political organization that had long formed the backbone of their civic identity. Yet they came over the course of a decade to believe that the Jacksonian Democratic Party had degenerated into something thoroughly autocratic and corrupt. It had fallen so deeply in the thrall of the Slave Power that it posed an existential threat to American democracy.

    Placing the sanctity of the nation above the narrow bonds of party, these Democrats joined in common cause with former Whig antagonists in the epic struggle to save the United States from its own darker instincts.

    Today, a small but influential cadre of Republican elected officials, strategists and policy experts faces a similar choice. Heirs of Ronald Reagan, they have grown to believe that their party has also degenerated into something ugly and undemocratic—hostile to science and fact, rooted in an angry spirit of racial and ethnic nationalism, enamored of foreign strongmen and hostile to American institutions, and so fundamentally estranged from the nation’s founding values that it poses an existential threat to American democracy.

    During the presidential campaign of 2016, and for the better part of the past two years, these Never Trumpers could plausibly speak of extracting their party from the grip of white nationalism and angry populism. Now, with midterm elections approaching—with broad majorities of the GOP electorate firmly in the president’s thrall and the Republican Congress all but fully acquiescent to the White House—such talk is fanciful.

    Like that Iowa delegate in 1857, today’s Never Trumpers face a stark choice: passively acquiesce to the further ascent of Trumpism, or switch parties and play a vital part in stopping it.

    If they do choose the latter, they might be surprised at the result: Like the GOP’s founding generation, in the process of leaving a party they once loved, today’s Never Trump Republicans might also free themselves from partisan dogmas that have lost relevance in the current age. At the same time, they might find Democrats demonstrating a new spirit of flexibility and accommodation—leading to a new unity that could cure the country of some of its worst ills.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/14/never-trumpers-will-want-to-read-this-history-lesson-219006?__twitter_impression=true

  14. Confessions @ #410 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    poroti @ #404 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    Confessions says:

    I’m holding out until the last possible moment to sign onto Fraudband too. Not looking forward to the higher monthly cost for an inferior service.

    Fraudband’s blurb tells me that I will change over to same conditions as current Telstra plan. We shall see.

    Do share your experiences as the promotional material I’ve received, not just from Telstra but from other providers, has me paying anything from potentially $5 to $20 per month more than I’m currently paying, depending on which provider I go with.

    I pay $69 per month for Unlimited Broadband and a landline phone, which I never use but had to agree to to get the good deal on the nbn.

  15. Rossmcg,
    Considering Turnbull promised atleast 25/5 mbps to everyone by the end of 2016, then 10mbps is really poor, and is actually under NBNs guarantee of 12/1 in a coexistence period, so NBN has even failed you with that speed.

  16. Rossmcg.

    Switching over to Fraudband was uber easy peasy painless. The thing is gigabucks have been spent to give people a service no better than before. One thing about the internet is too much speed is never enough.

  19. Nicko

    You believed what Turnbull promised?

    I hardly believe anything any politician says any more.

    I am just grateful that I have a better service at less cost with minimal hassle. I don’t doubt that many people have not been as lucky.

    But as they say, if you don’t have great expectations you will rarely be disappointed these days.

  21. Considering Turnbull promised atleast 25/5 mbps to everyone by the end of 2016

    Something he has never been held to account for.

  22. Rossmcg

    I knew Turnbull was selling a turd a long time ago, still though it should make everyone angry that we are spending billions over many years on something that even fails to deliver atleast 25/5 to everyone, which is even pretty paltry by world standards.

  24. C@t:

    Perhaps it’s just me all the way over on the other side of the country and thus removed from the day to day in Sydney and NSW, but am I right in perceiving that Maguire has had a relatively easy run from the media considering his transgressions?

    I cannot help but think, what if he were a Labor MP?

  25. Thinking about the US and partisanship.
    Trump could be re-elected because of the tax cuts, not despite them.

    Given the state of the US and what Trump will have done by 2020, people will be even more fearful and resentful. So who to vote for?

    Trump has given them symbolic wins, while making their lives worse, so who to vote for?

    I think many of his voters will be lining up to vote for him again. It isn’t as if the Democrats did much for them.

    These are the voters who despise ‘Obamacare’, but have grown to rely on the ACA, or did.

    And he can campaign on ‘finishing the wall’.

  26. “I cannot help but think, what if he were a Labor MP?”

    Short answer: Sam Dastyari, except that he wasn’t corrupt.

  27. John R:

    I agree. You can see how he’d campaign based on how he’s spruiked his NATO visit: (wtte) NATO was broken and ruined before I got here. Now we have a great, fully functional NATO etc etc. Translate this to his tariffs even though they are having a negative impact on parts of the country, but never mind he’ll simply lie and say everything is all a-ok now thanks to his tariffs.

    And Trump media laps it up.

  30. Confessions @ #422 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    C@t:

    Perhaps it’s just me all the way over on the other side of the country and thus removed from the day to day in Sydney and NSW, but am I right in perceiving that Maguire has had a relatively easy run from the media considering his transgressions?

    I cannot help but think, what if he were a Labor MP?

    Yes he has. The Liberals are allowed to tidy their mess up and get on with governing!
    Maybe it’s because the media secretly love politicians like McGuire showing that sort of ‘initiative’.

  32. What a great story, and role model for all Australians.

    I can see the Tele headline

    African Gang Invades Pitch

  33. The NSW Liberals booting Maguire (but he still stays in Parliament) is like private schools booting students who cause an embarrassment to the school.

    Both the Liberals and the private schools want to protect their reputation, whether with the voting public or prospective fee paying parents.

    The trouble is that the n’er-do-wells are still circulating in the community, usually without any punishment by the legal system.

  35. NBN I pay for 25 and get 23-24 download rock solid for the last three months. My neighbor paid for 50 download and gets 46. The nbn landline comes with the internode cost of $65 a month. For me to upgrade to 50 would cost an extra $10. I am very happy with internode.

  36. Simon
    What a great,great photograph. We’ve gradually changed since the famous Nikki Widmar photo when he lifted his jersey and pointed to his skin.

  37. The trouble is that the n’er-do-wells are still circulating in the community, usually without any punishment by the legal system.

    And their shit is invariably tied to the Liberal party, that being the party of big business which uses its money and power to get what it wants at the end of the day.

    This love of coal by Canavan, Barnaby, Morrison and a slew of other Liberals I’m certain has its genesis in party donations. It’s clearly not in the national interest, but never stand in between a Liberal seeking election and a bucket of donations funding! (With apologies to former PM Paul Keating) 😀

  38. “Darn, I don’t expect Labor will win 86 seats”….

    Suggestions for William for a post-election article:

    “Oops, sorry guys, I was mistaken, Labor got more than 86 seats…”
    “I wrote ‘I don’t expect Labor will win 86 seats’ ages ago, obviously things change over time…”
    “Clearly my model will need to be revised…. I will do so in due course”

  39. We’ve gradually changed since the famous Nikki Widmar photo

    Al Pal, yes…. to a point. As we saw with Adam Goodes; if they dont know their place and dare to step out of the box, then they will be brought down to size with unrelenting vicious racism.

  41. Just saw the best anti-trump sign if you’re a woman:

    “I’d call trump a c*^t but he lacks the depth and warmth”

    The cleverness of some of the signs is quite astounding!

  43. “I’d call trump a c*^t but he lacks the depth and warmth”

    I don’t think that’s original as I’ve seen it before. Perhaps in relation to someone else other than Trump?

  46. “if they dont know their place and dare to step out of the box, then they will be brought down to size with unrelenting vicious racism.”

    Come on SK. Everybody* knows Goodes was staging for free kicks … when he wasn’t being ‘disrespectful’ by showboating an aboriginal war dance … in the indigenous celebration round.

    * every RWNJ in Melbourne

  49. Good news! I just heard the guy behind the ‘Trump Baby’ blimp being interviewed and he has promised to start following Trump around the world on his diplomatic itinerary! So we can expect to see it in Australia in November!

    I’m going to Canberra! I wouldn’t miss it for the world!

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