BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)

The addition of Newspoll’s state breakdowns to the BludgerTrack results in a net gain of two for the Coalition on the national seat projection.

There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.

As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)”

Comments Page 8 of 12
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  1. lizzie @ #346 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 10:46 am

    Hello, more free junk. I’m tired of ‘free gifts’. They go straight to the Op Shop.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/company-news/another-shot-fired-in-the-supermarket-wars-woolworths-invests-over-dollar1-billion-towards-lowering-prices-as-coles-fights-back-with-bizarre-marketing-ploy/ar-AAA4iDb?ocid=spartandhp

    And all that unnecessary plastic! Noting that this new gimmick is being launched in Plastic-Free July.

  2. Canavan said on “Insiders’ that a power company has to give three year’s notice if they’re planning to close a power station down.

    I’m still trying to work out how that gets enforced.

    What if a key component breaks down and it’s going to cost too much to replace it?

    What if the company goes bankrupt?

    What if it’s a foreign based company which is pulling out of Australia all together?

  3. Former Watergate Prosecutor Nick Akerman dropped a bomb on Saturday, saying the details in Robert Mueller’s Friday indictment of 12 Russians indicate that the special counsel is preparing similar indictments of Trump campaign officials.

    And Republican Members of Congress. So I pray to the Lord Dog above that Mitch McConnell is one of them!

    Which brings us to a name we haven’t heard a lot from recently, Reince Priebus. He must have known where all the bodies were buried, otherwise how would he have been given the job he had, if only for a while? And/or been involved in whatever went down. Did he roll over for Mueller? I’d say probably, especially after the shameful way he was disposed of, pretty literally, by Trump.

    Revenge is a dish best served as cold as Gazpacho on a hot summer’s day in the South of the USA. 🙂

  4. When Rosenstein and Mueller come for these two with an indictment we’ll really see the Repugs lose it big time trying to save them in order to save themselves. Although they may let Melania off for being no more than Trump’s visual distraction. Still, it gets down to, how much did the wife hear, how much did she know about what was going on and how complicit does that make her?

  5. Bushfire Bill @ #268 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 9:07 am

    The one thing in this novichok search business that I have not seen any discussion of – even to dismiss it – is whether the couple most recently poisoned may have been the actual Russian agents.

    From what I heard on the BBC World Service when I was in the car yesterday, they seem to have just been litter-conscious citizens who saw an ’empty’ bottle in the area where the Skripols were poisoned and picked it up and thus became poisoned themselves!

  6. I daresay Assange wants to overstay his welcome at embassy as alternative is not looking good for this traitor

    The Sunday Times
    The Sunday Times
    @thesundaytimes
    Britain is in high-level talks with Ecuador in an attempt to remove Julian Assange from its London embassy

  7. My feeling is that Melania is looking forward to being free of Trump. Of course predicated on her being considerably financially compensated. After all, reason why she is with the Trumpster to begin with.
    She won’t be happy if it turns out he is penniless

  8. C@momma

    “litter concious” 😆 . At least one of them is a registered heroin addict and initial reports was their drug background may mean they could have picked up a phial or syringe they had come across and been poisoned that way.

  9. C@tmomma says: Sunday, July 15, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    Although they may let Melania off for being no more than Trump’s visual distraction. Still, it gets down to, how much did the wife hear, how much did she know about what was going on and how complicit does that make her?

    ******************************************************

    There was a good little sketch on Saturday Night Live regarding Melania – WTTE

    Some official – ” Mrs Trump, as his wife, legally there is no way you would be required to give evidence against your husband

    Melania character – ” But I want to ! “

  10. Someone rhwombat ? recently mentioned a viking funeral. They could have popped up to Darwin with the ashes a day or so back.

    Darwin’s taken a Viking to flaming funeral ceremony

    A longstanding tradition, Darwin’s annual Viking Funeral will see the symbolic ‘Errik the Unique’ set alight as he lies on a purpose built Viking vessel moored to a platoon on the banks of the harbour along Frances Bay Drive.

    The procession, led by a band of bagpipers, commemorates all the ships who have been retired from the sea and all the sailors who have passed away, never again to man their helms.

    “The Top End Bow Hunters, who come along to light the vessel with flaming arrows, have also been experimenting with an alchemist this year. So they are going to be putting on a bit more of a show with different colours and different effects.”

    https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/darwins-taken-a-viking-to-flaming-funeral-ceremony/news-story/0d1e73964f760697504c9e45d1d4af1d

  11. Vic:

    I think the Ecuadoreans are sick of Assange and regret giving him asylum. I have no doubt they will come to an arrangement with the Brits to offload him.

  12. Victoria says: Sunday, July 15, 2018 at 1:30 pm

    My feeling is that Melania is looking forward to being free of Trump. Of course predicated on her being considerably financially compensated. After all, reason why she is with the Trumpster to begin with.
    She won’t be happy if it turns out he is penniless

    **********************************************

    Lots of wild internet rumours about Melania – her immigration status , is she a secret Russian mole set up to manipulating Donald ?……… and since her long disappearance some weeks back all sorts of ‘analysis’ from cosmetic surgery to more serious health problems than reported

    …… even today

    Photos of Melania Trump on Europe trip fuel new round of ‘body double’ conspiracy theories: report

    Some images of Melania Trump snapped during the president’s visit to Europe have fueled a new round of conspiracy theories.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/photos-melania-trump-europe-trip-fuel-new-round-body-double-conspiracy-theories-report/

    No different to the Obama Birther stuff that Trump spouted off at times …..

  13. poroti says: Sunday, July 15, 2018 at 1:42 pm

    phoenixRED

    Perhaps with a full Eva Gabor accent ? “But darklink I vant to”

    ***********************************

    Good one Poroti 🙂

  14. Roger Miller

    Why was the “Viking vessel moored to a platoon”?

    The archers with the flaming arrows are not very good at moving targets ? 🙂

  15. Fess

    The Ecuadorians are sick of him cos not only is he a nasty individual. He acted on behalf of the Kremlin whilst they gave him sanctuary.

  16. Bill ShortenVerified account@billshortenmp
    2h2 hours ago
    I’ve written to Turnbull asking him to help Australians with high-risk diabetes access the devices that could change – or even save – their lives.

    If he can find $17b to give to the banks, surely he can find a fraction of that to improve lives of people living with diabetes.

    :large

  17. Is there an officer in charge of the platoon? Who gave the orders for the platoon to be on the banks of the river?

  18. poroti @ #356 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 1:32 pm

    C@momma

    “litter concious” 😆 . At least one of them is a registered heroin addict and initial reports was their drug background may mean they could have picked up a phial or syringe they had come across and been poisoned that way.

    Or maybe, combining the two scenarios, they could have been collecting bottles for the refunds to support their bad habits! 🙂

  19. ‘Fess, do you mean like the device Theresa May was wearing on her arm, connected to a monitor of her blood glucose, when Trump visited this week?

  20. Would be hilarious if there was a Mueller / Russia election meddling indictment and warrant for Assange’s arrest. Now that would be sweet.

  21. Roger Miller

    Just re read the article. I guess the ‘platoon’ really does need to hope the archers are bad shots. 😆

  22. Confessions @ #372 Sunday, July 15th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    C@t:

    Yes I would assume that’s the kind of device Shorten is referring to.

    Yes it would be. The sensors like the one Theresa May was wearing cost nearly $100 each here and last about a fortnight. Expensive accessory but valuable for many. It would be for us, as my husband can’t do the finger prick himself due to a shaky hand. I have to do that for him.

  23. Interesting that it’s Ashby, not Hanson herself, telling Fairfax that Latham would make a good leader of ON after Hanson.

    It’s clear that the PHON puppeteer is Ashby who will ultimately decide Hanson’s fate. Should he fall out with Hanson at some stage, expect a monumental punch up but with the crafty Ashby ultimately prevailing over the vocal but largely clueless Hanson.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/pauline-hanson-leaves-door-open-to-latham-leading-one-nation-20180714-p4zril.html

  24. Van Badham
    ‏@vanbadham

    9 minutes ago

    No one mocks like the poms: “Fuck Trump” (in Russian, no less) greeted the despised US president in the form of a crop circle in Stoke Mandeville.
    This – this is *effort*, man.

  25. Regardless of the person’s politics I wouldn’t want anybody living in my spare room for six years, visits from Pamela Anderson or not.

  26. Matthew Canavan
    @mattjcan

    Coal fired power hit a record level last year at 9723 terawatt hours! Coal has been 40% of electricty production for 40 years! It aint going away anytime soon @murpharoo

    Murphy replies:

    Katharine Murphy
    ‏@murpharoo

    You can continue to tell people things can stay just as they are, ignore the climate science, decide someone else can deal with that problem down the track, but I’ve got higher ambitions for politicians: call it straight, pursue evidence-based policy, plan ahead #auspol

  27. Interesting the conversation here about Elon Musk.

    It always puzzles me how “successful businessman” seems to give someone God like status. Yes he has been very successful, but he’s actually a complex person who is in my opinion both a genius and an idiot.

    I have a lot of respect for him because he actually listens to engineers. His rocket company didn’t happen by accident. It happened because he took the best engineers and allowed them to design from a clean sheet of paper. I also like the fact that he isn’t afraid to scrap an idea and redo.

    Has he done a lot of good. Absolutely. Is he a product of a privileged background. That too.

    But what really fascinates me about Elon is his capacity to believe in the utterly absurd. No, I’m not talking about hyperloop here, which is simply a bad idea. I’m talking about how Elon actually believes in Mars colonisation. Can we colonise Mars? Yes we can. It’ll be a lot more expensive, take a lot longer and cost a lot more lives than Musk thinks. Should we colonise Mars? Now that’s the real question and the one where Musk and all the “multiplanetary species” enthusiasts need to take a Red Pill.

    Here’s a simple business case problem. At a million dollars a pop, who could afford to go to Mars? Well, a lot of people could. That is afford to as opposed to want to.

    Now, how many people want to go to Mars. Quite a few people are romantic enough and stupid enough to want to.

    How big is the intersection of those two groups? Elon claims its about a million. I think Elon is delusional. And that’s the essence of his “business case”.

    The reality here is that we already have the technology to get to Mars. We have the technology to send small groups there and chances are, most will come back alive. But living there is another thing. You’ve got a million bucks to spend. Your choices are a) a luxury home or b) a hole in the ground where enjoying the sunshine means deadly radiation and if you take your helmet off, you die. Even if some people do do this, how many will continue to come given the hardships and death rate?

    Want me to go on?

  28. Katharine Murphy
    ‏@murpharoo

    You can continue to tell people things can stay just as they are, ignore the climate science, decide someone else can deal with that problem down the track, but I’ve got higher ambitions for politicians: call it straight, pursue evidence-based policy, plan ahead #auspol

    Or more simply: how about just governing in the national interest, not for the vested interests?

  29. Mark Latham will fit right in:

    And when he becomes leader, they should change their name to One Violent Male-dominated Nation.

  30. People are complex, Cud Chewer. I think there probably are people who’d make that choice. Maybe not the million that Musk speaks of, but maybe enough. Musk does have form for reading markets well after all.
    There are, and have always been, plenty of folk happy to spend mindbending amounts of money to live in discomfort and danger. Long voyage sailors spring to mind, as do generations of “gentlemen explorers”.
    Also, bear in mind that being a Mars colonist would likely be, effectively, a one-way deal, so that million bucks wouldn’t need to be disposable income but could just as well be an individual’s total assets. All you need is someone with a nice house in an OECD capital and a perception that they’ve nothing to remain on Earth for. Plenty of those around I should think.

  31. This is brilliant by Murphy, the two biggest Australian failures over the last 20 years are climate change and refugees. One is a failure of both parties and there should be much more of a fight and the other is simply deliberate dishonesty by the LNP often dismissed as a simple pox on both houses, mutual ‘toxic debate’. Well the debate is certainly toxic for our country, the planet and now with renewables looking like West Coast kicking away in the last quarter our pockets as well.

    Australian Journalism doesn’t seem to know how to deal with either a bipartisan failure or a single party deceit. Makes you begin to wonder what exactly it can and does do.

    Oh it chases senators out of the parliament on racist partisan rubbish and it protects grubby dishonest deputy PM’s. But I’m not sure other than in team Murdoch, outside fox and its propaganda affiliates, this is much to be proud of.

  32. Before arriving in Scotland — the birthplace of his mother, as well as that of Trump’s preferred pastime — the president managed repeatedly to plug Turnberry, one of two Scottish resorts that bear his name, as he dealt with some of the most pressing diplomatic problems facing his administration to date.

    It is a tactic that has alarmed ethics watchdogs, who say he is using his presidential platform to promote a resort that, according to financial filings, has been a burden on the family business.

    Ethics experts tend to be cynical about the president’s sentimental references to his resort: His arrival at Turnberry marks the 169th day during his presidency that he has visited a property owned, managed or branded by the Trump Organisation. Financial records show the resort has lost money since Trump purchased it in 2014.

    “I view this as kind of a forced subsidy of an infomercial for his properties,” Norman L. Eisen, chairman of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said in an interview Friday. “He’s attempting to utilise his trip to get beneficial PR.”

    Trump appears to hold a special place in his heart for Turnberry, perhaps because of his love of golf and because his mother, Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, who was born in Tong, a village about 480 kilometres from Turnberry, in the north of Scotland.

    “I feel very comfortable here,” Donald Trump said to reporters during a 2008 visit to Tong, on the island of Lewis, where he spent about 90 seconds in the modest cottage where his mother was born. “It’s interesting when your mother, who was such a terrific woman, comes from a specific location, you tend to like that location. I think I do feel Scottish.”

    90 seconds for nostalgia???

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/central-america/how-trump-makes-the-links-between-politics-and-his-business-20180715-p4zrl3.html

  33. I can’t remember whether this article was posted this morning, however, for those who are interested, here is the latest on the Victorian ALP’s attempts to hammer out a deal involving Jane Garrett, the recently-vacated federal seats of Jagajaga and Melbourne Ports/Macnamara and Marybyrnong and Fraser, involving Bill Shorten himself:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-faces-backlash-over-garrett-s-comeback-plan-20180713-p4zrdv.html

  34. It always puzzles me how “successful businessman” seems to give someone God like status.

    I hope that doesnt refer to me. My posts about Musk was in response to someone calling him a snake oil salesman which I thought was unfair so I listed some achievements.

    I absolutely agree with much of what you posted. He may well have some silly ideas. He may well have got a leg up from a privileged upbringing. Some successful people have even relied on welfare at times (Paul Ryan?). Many probably got lucky somewhere along the way.

    It takes a village to raise a child and I think it takes a society to raise a successful entrepreneur. And we need them. So while I probably wouldnt like him much I respect his achievements – they appear generally productive and tangible. And he seems to operate on more than just self interest.

  35. I think there are more people here yesterday at the Trump protest in London than there were at the Trump inauguration!

  36. I think there are more people here yesterday at the Trump protest in London than there were at the Trump inauguration!

    Brilliant!! 😆

  37. Does Trump have a thing for older women in positions of authority? Or is he talking like a salesman trying to flog something?

    Speaking of the Queen, Mr Trump was quoted as saying: “She is an incredible woman, she is so sharp, she is so beautiful, when I say beautiful — inside and out. That is a beautiful woman.”

    Asked if he felt the Queen had liked him, he said:

    “Well I don’t want to speak for her, but I can tell you I liked her. So usually that helps. But I liked her a lot,” he said.

    “Just very elegant. And very beautiful. It was really something special.

    “She is so sharp, so wise, so beautiful. Up close, you see she’s so beautiful. She’s a very special person.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-15/theresa-may-warns-there-could-be-no-brexit-at-all/9996052

  38. Some Bill Maher from his live show in Oklahoma:

    Bill MaherVerified account@billmaher
    Jul 13
    Is it really such a crime to commit a crime? That’s where the whole Republican Party is at. #WitchHuntMyAss #TrumpRussia

    https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1017887733627285507

    Bill MaherVerified account@billmaher
    Jul 12
    Donald Trump could not be where he is without all these @GOP enablers. It’s not just the clown, it’s the circus. @PressSec @FoxNews #Russia
    https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1017548585536086017

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