Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 11
1 2 11
  1. Yes they try every day “kill Bill” “Kill Bill” then “Kill Bill” again, when are they going to learn, it’s not working for them

  2. Ch 7 Sunrise on Newspoll
    “Turnbull extends lead over Shorten”.
    It’s the only new news in this poll for the click baiting commercial news outlets.

  3. “Sorry guys but it’s 51/49 to our great LNP”

    Could you please tell Brian that, and advise him that the time is right for a snap election?

  4. Consecutive negative Newspoll N.36 for Turnbull…. and counting.
    He really wants to lose the next election on a high: “But I broke the record of negative Newspolls!!…. Don’t I deserve some sort of medal, or something?”

  5. Royal family ‘snubbed’ Trump and Melania during UK visit: They ‘simply refused to attend’

    According to the Sunday Times, members of the royal family, including Prince Charles and Prince William, refused to meet with President Donald Trump and his wife Melania during their stop-over in London.

    The report states that the family left it to Queen Elizabeth II to meet and greet the American president while everyone else avoided Trump who is highly unpopular in the United Kingdom.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/royal-family-snubbed-trump-melania-uk-visit-simply-refused-attend/

  6. Head of European Union blasts Trump and accuses him of spreading ‘Fake News’

    Literally minutes after CBS aired an interview in which President Donald Trump declared the European Union to be among America’s greatest enemies, the head of the EU struck back.

    European Council President Donald Tusk (photo, left) took to Twitter, and in an elegant mocking of Trump’s favorite phrase, declared, “America and the EU are best friends. Whoever says we are foes is spreading fake news.” The European Council represents the European Union.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/head-european-union-blasts-trump-accuses-spreading-fake-news/

  7. One BIG lesson from the winner of the World Cup to their country France, to Europe … and to the rest of the World: Ethnic and Racial diversity are…. a WINNER!

  8. phoenixRED:

    We are all impatiently waiting for special counsel Robert Mueller to complete his investigation, a nice little impeachment is coming for the buffoon in the White House, unless he resigns…. The cherry on the cake is going to be a trashing of the GOP at the mid-term Congress election.
    Headless…. and powerless… the GOP will be sliding into oblivion heading to the next Presidential election. There is only one question: Will the Democrats finally seize the opportunity to put forward a strong Social Democratic program that is credible and that can withstand the attack of the conservative propaganda machine?…. and win the battle for both Congress and the Presidency?
    …. Stay tuned.

  9. “Ch 7 Sunrise on Newspoll
    “Turnbull extends lead over Shorten”.”….

    ….. Did they also explain why this “wonderful leader” is leading his party to defeat?… Whereas the alleged “oh so hated Shorten” is leading his party to victory?

  10. Sam Dastayari May be getting a good opportunity to settle some old scores..

    “Ex-Labor senator Sam Dastyari has brushed off suggestions he might be planning a return to politics. Which, from what we hear, is certainly accurate.

    His media career on the other hand – which already includes regular spots with Kyle and Jackie O’s KISS FM show – shows signs of taking off.

    And no, Dastyari does not have a new political talk show on Sky News. This is far more interesting.

    Channel Ten didn’t confirm it, but we have good cause to believe it has commissioned a pilot episode of a show with Dastyari appearing alongside Roxy Jacenko, the Instagram-savvy Sydney PR queen and wife of convicted insider trader Oliver Curtis.

    Both have had their share of controversy and it doesn’t particularly seem to faze either of them. So the show will appropriately have the two of them discussing the week’s major scandals. Which, to be honest, we’d certainly watch.

    Though the commissioning of a pilot doesn’t mean a full show is going ahead. New Ten owner CBS last year announced it would take a leaf out of US television in introducing a pilot week, where shows can be tested in front of a station’s regular audience before any firm programming decision about a full season is taken. The first one, of which Dastyari’s show will be a part, is airing next month.

    “https://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/dastyari-jacenko-to-star-in-tens-first-pilot-week-20180715-h12p5a

  11. phoenixRED @ #14 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 4:38 am

    Royal family ‘snubbed’ Trump and Melania during UK visit: They ‘simply refused to attend’

    According to the Sunday Times, members of the royal family, including Prince Charles and Prince William, refused to meet with President Donald Trump and his wife Melania during their stop-over in London.

    The report states that the family left it to Queen Elizabeth II to meet and greet the American president while everyone else avoided Trump who is highly unpopular in the United Kingdom.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/royal-family-snubbed-trump-melania-uk-visit-simply-refused-attend/

    But but but Trump said that people in the UK love him!!

  12. The SmearStralian is in full KillBill mode today, with the 3 lead items

    – Shorten prepares for another policy flip
    – PM extends lead over Shorten
    – Albo kicks Shorten where it hurts

    So Bill we not be lacking in name recognition amongst the old white men who make up the Smear’s readership.

  13. Sprocket ~ @ #21 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:08 am

    The SmearStralian is in full KillBill mode today, with the 3 lead items

    – Shorten prepares for another policy flip
    – PM extends lead over Shorten
    – Albo kicks Shorten where it hurts

    So Bill we not be lacking in name recognition amongst the old white men who make up the Smear’s readership.

    The Mordorcs are the apocrine sweat glands of the GReady Arseholes and Spivs Party. Turnbull, Abbott, Dutton, Morrison, Bishop(s), Cash, Hunt, Canavan etc. are the bacterial colonisers who make the sweat stink.

  14. Yep. Plain as day……..

    chris zappone
    chris zappone
    @chrizap
    ·
    1h
    Among latest outrageous things Trump said… (See a pattern?) Donald Trump calls EU a ‘foe’ before arriving in Finland for Putin summit

    Trump calls EU a ‘foe’ before arriving in Finland for Putin summit
    smh.com.au

    Chris “Cal” Carnahan
    Chris “Cal” Carnahan
    @xtrixcyclex
    ·
    6h
    So on the one hand we have indictments against the Russian military. On the other we have a @PutinRF fluffer @POTUS who believes the EU is our biggest enemy. Russia’s military attack on America was an act of war. With this messaging Trump is knowingly committing treason.

  15. Barnaby a “writer” now?

    Dr Glorious Pecora
    ‏@noplaceforsheep
    1h

    All the journos who protected Joyce so he could win the New England by-election for the LNP now appearing with him as he headlines the Canberra *Writers’* Festival. What a swamp of self congratulatory masturbators.

  16. lizzie @ #25 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:44 am

    Barnaby a “writer” now?

    Dr Glorious Pecora
    ‏@noplaceforsheep
    1h

    All the journos who protected Joyce so he could win the New England by-election for the LNP now appearing with him as he headlines the Canberra *Writers’* Festival. What a swamp of self congratulatory masturbators.

    The standard you walk past….

  17. Benson has a cushy job at Murdoch’s Oz. For every Newspoll, he only needs to do a cut and paste of what he wrote previously.

    I looked at the Oz headline before reading the Newspoll results on PB. “PM extends lead over Shorten” obviously meant that Labor was ahead in the 2PP tally.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Jess Irvine is of the opinion that the brake on Australia’s addiction to property has come just in time. She makes some good points in this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/brake-on-australia-s-addiction-to-property-has-come-just-in-time-20180715-p4zrk2.html
    Ross Gittins rains on Canavan’s parade by explain why digging up a lot more coal won’t bring more jobs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/digging-up-a-lot-more-coal-won-t-bring-more-jobs-20180715-p4zrlp.html
    Greg Jericho rips into the government by saying it’s much easier to boast about being good at budget management when the income does all the heavy lifting. He tells us about what the rivers of money are hiding.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jul/15/rivers-of-revenue-hide-all-manner-of-budgetary-sins
    Michael Pascoe on the dubious achievements of outgoing Treasury boss, John Fraser. Trickle down economics is now well entrenched in Treasury he says.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/07/15/john-fraser-treasury-secretary/
    On the eve of his meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump has rattled allies once more by labelling the European Union a “foe” with regard to trade.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/trump-calls-eu-a-foe-before-arriving-in-finland-for-putin-summit-20180716-p4zroi.html
    And dumb-ass Trump said he hadn’t thought of pressing Putin on extraditing 12 Russian officials charged with hacking Democratic emails.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-hadn-t-thought-of-asking-putin-to-hand-over-russian-agents-trump-20180716-p4zrog.html
    Paul Waldman writes that personal relationships between leaders can be important in foreign relations. Trump seems to believe those relations are almost purely about personal chemistry
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/for-trump-it-s-always-personal-20180715-p4zrmx.html
    Australia’s banks are scrambling to plug a growing funding gap as super funds move more money offshore while indebted households draw on their savings.
    https://outline.com/UzFhRm
    Serious concerns have been raised by doctors and security experts about the federal government’s My Health Record system that will create a shared digital medical record for every Australian unless they opt-out in a three-month period starting today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/breach-inevitable-in-digital-health-records-20180715-p4zrmb.html
    Peter Dutton says a recent drop in the number of migrants settling permanently in Australia will be positive for the economy, contradicting Scott Morrison’s arguments that lower immigration levels cost the budget.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/15/peter-dutton-contradicts-morrison-and-says-migrant-cut-positive-for-the-economy
    And Michelle Grattan tells us how Government senator Dean Smith is urging annational debate about population.
    https://theconversation.com/government-senator-dean-smith-urges-national-debate-about-population-100002
    Nicole Hasham reports that more than $22 million in taxpayer funds will be paid directly to a private foundation hand-picked by the Turnbull government to dispense Australia’s largest single Great Barrier Reef funding package, raising fresh questions over the controversial deal.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cherry-picked-charity-to-pocket-at-least-22-5-million-in-taxpayer-funding-for-reef-20180715-p4zrne.html
    A new report finds workers, creditors and governments billions of dollars worse off as government intensifies it crackdown on dodgy company directors.
    https://outline.com/DDLLdY
    Urban Wronski asks, “Who’s the real baby, Trump or Turnbull?”
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/07/16/whos-the-real-baby-trump-or-turnbull/
    Gladys Berejiklian is upping the pressure on disgraced Liberal MP Daryl Maguire to quit as the member for Wagga Wagga, signalling she is willing to endure a byelection ahead of the state poll next March.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-pressures-disgraced-liberal-mp-to-quit-his-wagga-wagga-seat-20180715-p4zrn7.html
    Nassim Khadem explains wow the ATO is going after multinationals that abuse IP arrangements.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/as-multinationals-gear-up-to-fight-ato-it-turns-focus-on-abuse-of-ip-20180715-p4zrkk.html
    Kevin Rudd scorns News Corp these days, but that wasn’t always the case, writes former ABC reporter Jeffrey Waters.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-curious-case-of-kevin-rudd-newscorp-and-the-contract,11694
    Josh Dye reports on how the federal government has unveiled a new system that will allow consumers to compare private health insurance policies across the industry. The new classification aims to add transparency to a sector with 70,000 policies, giving them a rating of gold, silver, bronze or basic. Gold would signal the highest level of cover.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-ranking-system-to-help-public-compare-health-insurance-cover-20180715-p4zrml.html
    Victoria Police has been charged with several bullying-related offences in an unprecedented step by WorkSafe. The charges come amid allegations the force did not provide a safe work environment at a station in Melbourne’s south-east.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-police-charged-with-bullying-20180715-p4zrn6.html
    Australia has adopted a “golden rule” that means even as artificial intelligence is used increasingly in border security, any adverse decision such as a visa rejection will be made by a human being so that people are never knocked back by a machine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/top-official-s-golden-rule-in-border-protection-computer-won-t-ever-say-no-20180712-p4zr3i.html
    A petition calling on state and territory ministers to change Australian gun laws after two teenagers were murdered by their father, John Edwards, in West Pennant Hills, has garnered almost 10,000 signatures.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pressure-grows-for-tighter-controls-on-handguns-20180715-p4zrl4.html
    The key document that sparked AMP to commission Clayton Utz last year to investigate its “fees for no service” scandal was already in the sights of the corporate regulator before the consultancy’s report was ever completed and handed to the AMP board.
    https://outline.com/YHP9M4
    Michael Idato reports on Sasha Baron Cowan’s new series on America and says that vainglorious legislators and smarmy political lobbyists are easy marks. Even as the audience beggars disbelief these interviews are not only still going but worsening moment by moment, the subjects are nailing themselves into figurative coffins with the sheer force of their own ignorance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/sacha-baron-cohen-s-who-is-america-proves-satire-is-not-dead-20180715-p4zrm2.html
    The SMH editorial is delighted with the work of scientists and the international collaboration it fosters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/cosmos-yields-another-secret-20180715-p4zrnd.html
    Netflix has been so successful in foreign markets that governments around the world are now looking at measures to rein it in, with the aim (misguided or not) of protecting their local creative communities. – and Australia is no exception.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/australia-s-quota-debate-could-signal-the-next-challenge-for-netflix-20180713-p4zra9.html
    Josh Frydenberg has issued a warning to the federal government’s retail energy company owned by Snowy Hydro after it was fined twice last year by the competition watchdog for misleading consumers on discounted pricing plans.
    https://outline.com/ETEbUq
    Jane Gilmore is pleased Serena did it for mums, but asks who will do it for workplaces?
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/i-m-glad-serena-did-it-for-mums-but-who-will-do-it-for-workplaces-20180715-p4zro1.html
    Law student Jasmin Poole opines that young women are turning off a career in politics, but we can fix this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-women-are-turning-off-a-career-in-politics-but-we-can-fix-this-20180711-p4zqw5.html
    Peter Hannam tells us that days of severe pollution in Australia’s biggest cities will worsen in coming decades as a warming climate triggers more intense temperature inversion events, exacerbating health issues, according to new research.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-to-worsen-urban-air-quality-lifting-death-toll-20180713-p4zrf1.html
    Products marketed by supermarket giant Aldi using the term “naturals” don’t need to be made of mostly natural ingredients if the word is less prominent on the packaging and sold in a discount bin, the Federal Court has ruled.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/this-is-aldi-products-marked-natural-can-be-mostly-artificial-says-court-20180715-p4zrli.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe does Canavan over!

    As does Jon Kudelka.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/72d191e9916a8d37ac2af9f204289da8
    Pat Campbell on the trade war.

    John Shakespeare’s Team of the Century.

  19. We just might see a bit more of Albo in the coming weeks. Out there prosecuting ALP policy, of course and setting out his vision- which also of course , reflects Bills positions and vision.

  20. Alpo;

    I would love to see some actual Social Democrats emerge in the US, but its the democratic party that has been preventing that from happening (eg bernie), nothing to do with GOP.

    Mueller has his head in the clouds, he has created allegations that fit a convenient narrative, his new allegations contradicts what is already known. The Russia links are all based on an assumption that the DNC was hacked, that it wasnt an internal leak. There is strong evidence IMO that it was a leak, not a hack, and the whole Russia thing was just created as a scapegoat to protect Hillary’s ego, it just got a bit out of hand.

    Here is some info if your interested.
    https://disobedientmedia.com/2018/07/muellers-latest-indictment-ignores-evidence-in-the-public-domain/

  21. Al Pal

    Why would Albo doing that?

    Pretty stupid move on his part.

    Any chance to distable the ALP while they still in the leed is stupid.

    Most likely Murdoch is trying to disable the Labor Party.

  22. C@t, is the image on the Skunkhour link daves Gravatar?

    Interesting. Maybe Dave is a funk rock bass player?

  23. “We just might see a bit more of Albo in the coming weeks. Out there prosecuting ALP policy, of course and setting out his vision- which also of course , reflects Bills positions and vision.”

    Which is no more than he, and basically every other front bencher for that matter, has being doing since October 2013. The only difference being that now the CPG and LNP are banging a hollow log over “Albo for Leader” because they have collectively decided to open a new front on their endless “KillBill” war.

    If (when) this doesn’t work, expect a similiar “Bowen for leader”, and/or “Burke for Leader” campaign of distraction.

  24. C@tmomma, yea that is a very good sign, but not sure its going to change the balance of power by itself, time will tell.

  25. Andrew Stafford
    ‏14 hours ago

    Oh I see Barnaby Joyce is continuing his national Leave Me Alone tour at the Canberra Writers Festival

  26. How government inaction fuelled Australia’s renewable energy boom.

    A good article on how consumers and the liberals have driven the renewable energy industry. and are keeping a lid on prices.

    Renewable energy may be the cheapest way to produce electricity but, because of its intermittent nature, it requires back-up. Gas turbines, which unlike coal generators can be quickly turned off and on, are ideal. the key factor behind soaring energy prices: gas.

    Last year, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull intervened, threatening gas exporters with harsh export restrictions if they continued to drain the domestic market of supplies. The threat seems to have worked. Prices have moderated and the big exporters have pumped gas back into the domestic market.

    John Howard introduced the Renewable Energy Target as Prime Minister, Tony Abbott signed the Paris Climate Accord while, a few years earlier, Malcolm Turnbull was rolled as Coalition leader for advocating the introduction of a carbon price.

    It is a similar story on policy. Under Mr Abbott, the carbon tax, which was about to revert to a flexible pricing mechanism, was abolished. It was replaced by a $2.3 billion subsidy, called the Emissions Reduction Fund.

    Rightly no mention of the labor governments of SA, Qld, Vic and ACT renewable targets fueling demand and the current upswing in wind energy. It was all consumer led, people power demanding wind. It was the liberals leading the RET with labor delaying the Abbott target.

    The liberals doing all the hard work the RET, the climate accord, the ERF and Turnbulls carbon price which was different to labors carbon tax.

    This is why we need an independent ABC and why it is so trusted to counter the propaganda that the liberals are not interested in renewables and that it is labor leading the push.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-16/how-government-inaction-fuelled-the-renewables-boom/9996458

    Verrender is a good writer who writes well researched, unbiased prescient articles.

  27. Oh I see Barnaby Joyce is continuing his national Leave Me Alone tour at the Canberra Writers Festival.

    We will see him in a ruby red dress next lizzie.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #40 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:25 am

    “We just might see a bit more of Albo in the coming weeks. Out there prosecuting ALP policy, of course and setting out his vision- which also of course , reflects Bills positions and vision.”

    Which is no more than he, and basically every other front bencher for that matter, has being doing since October 2013. The only difference being that now the CPG and LNP are banging a hollow log over “Albo for Leader” because they have collectively decided to open a new front on their endless “KillBill” war.

    If (when) this doesn’t work, expect a similiar “Bowen for leader”, and/or “Burke for Leader” campaign of distraction.

    But never Plibersek for leader, because, because…because (Pauses. Screws up face. Goes orange. Cries.) Look What Happened With That Bloody Gillard Woman!

  29. Thanks BK for today’s offerings

    The piece by Jess Irvine and the property bubble is spot on.
    As soon as the crooked banks indicated that they would be tightening lending, there was a substantial drop in auction results and price of housing.
    How unsurprising

  30. It was a real red flag to me at the time.

    Show this thread
    Carole Cadwalladr
    Carole Cadwalladr
    @carolecadwalla
    ·
    31m
    Extraordinary.
    Wikileaks is “organisation 1” in Mueller’s indictments. This is in just one month..
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    Wow – MSNBC put together video of every single time Trump mentioned @wikileaks during final month of the 2016 campaign.

    Trump mentioned stolen emails published by WikiLeaks at least 164 times in Oct. 16, but later claimed it didn’t impact a single vote (link: https://thinkprogress.org/trump-mentioned-wikileaks-164-times-in-last-month-of-election-now-claims-it-didnt-impact-one-40aa62ea5002/) thinkprogress.org/trump-mentione…
    2:20
    48.6K views

Comments Page 1 of 11
1 2 11

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *