Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie
    “I’m not worried about Health Record because I shan’t be applying for employment or life insurance and it may be helpful if I lose my memory.
    BUT the situation might be very different if I were 30 years younger. I was once fired because I had a “nervous breakdown”.”

    I didn’t think of that side of it Lizzie, just as employers can now demand to see your facebook history your employment history your education history and your police history they also will be able to kindly ask with your permission of course to see your health record, why wouldn’t you?

  2. The @ #293 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 3:57 pm

    Trouble is that the ABS got it wrong by 24 years. Not sure if they are incompetent or politically motivated but getting the projection wrong by 24 years is just very, very very bad.

    I am sorry to say that I now rather think that ABS data may be totally useless which is a very sad state of affairs.

    Not disagreeing with you about the trashing of the once highly trusted ABS as an institution, but in their defence we should point out that this is an old, archived document.

    Nobody could have foreseen the sheer idiocy of increasing our migration intake to record levels and keeping it there for decades, which is essentially what we have done.

    I’d be willing to bet that even today, most people are unaware this is a deliberate – but largely unacknowledged – “Big Australia” policy.

  4. The discussion about Jewishness here just reinforces my argument that DNA tests should NOT say someone is part Jewish. The DNA testing is supposed to provide people of their biological geographical ‘origins’ yet Jewishness is not related to a specific geographic origin (despite what ‘exodus/promised land’ proponents would have everyone believe).

    Someone can be Jewish my tradition for several generations but not have a biological ethnic origin from the ‘place’ where tradition holds is the origin of Jewish ethnicity.

  5. ..the reason I raised this is that my sister has got her DNA results from ancestry.com and is all excited about them. I’m feeling a bit dubious but don’t want to rain on her parade!

    It reminds me of when my grandmother wanted to tell me stories about her forebears – I found it hard to engage because I knew (and she didn’t) that she was adopted.

  6. It’s a very interesting area Zoom. Some people ‘identify’ themselves in terms of ethnicity and I expect, like your grandmother not knowing she was adopted, having that belief/identity smashed might be quite shattering on an emotional level.

    For instance, believing you’re from one ethnic grouping and then finding out you are actually from an enemy group (if one wants to take it to the most sensational level).

  7. “Does anybody know if bananas really are bad for the heart because of their high potassium content, as some anecdotal evidence suggests?”
    Totally untrue. To start off with, bananas have less potassium in them per gram than potato and steak.

  10. ‘jenauthor says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 4:44 pm

    The discussion about Jewishness here just reinforces my argument that DNA tests should NOT say someone is part Jewish. The DNA testing is supposed to provide people of their biological geographical ‘origins’ yet Jewishness is not related to a specific geographic origin (despite what ‘exodus/promised land’ proponents would have everyone believe).

    Someone can be Jewish my tradition for several generations but not have a biological ethnic origin from the ‘place’ where tradition holds is the origin of Jewish ethnicity.’

    There is a rumour afoot that certain people in the Middle East checked to see whether a bacteria or a virus could be weaponized and then targetted at a certain enemy using DNA. According to the rumour, when it was realized that there was no real DNA variation between the target group and the targeter group this particular line of investigation was discontinued.

  12. Apologies everyone for posting that Reachtel stuff last night, somebody sent me that link and I thought it was for the newest poll, which I really did participate in.

  13. jenauthor @ #308 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    You need potassium! Just don’t overdose.

    Some diuretics are “potassium sparing” which means they tend to raise the potassium in the blood. I’m on one of them. There can be some risk of other things pushing the potassium too high, but a few bananas are unlikely to do so.

  15. Without using Google at all, I’d say the bananas and heart thing is almost certainly bullocks if it’s about potassium. Potassium channels are key to heart activity, but they are also essential to brain activity and insulin release. Things like potassium tend to be well regulated by active and passive transporters, and ion channels, making them hard to overdose on them by diet. And finally, the average American (for instance) has about 5 bananas worth less potassium than the recommended daily intake, so for a lot of people they should have more potassium.

  17. @jenauthor

    Of course there are exceptions and your GP is the best to tell you if you’re one of them. I meant in the general.

  18. “there are 46 chromosomes of which you get 23 from each parent. Theoretically you could get the total opposite of your sister and sharer nothing in common.”
    This ain’t so. You are the combination of two gametes, each containing 23 chromosomes from your parents. But each gamete chromosome is a mixture of both chromosomes from that parent as it forms during meiosis. So you share pretty much exactly 50% of your DNA with each sibling.

  21. NathanA

    I am on a ketogenic diet so I have to be careful I do not underdose on potassium (or magnesium) in my diet because of the diuretic effect of the diet. I drink the sugar free GWater from Gatorade and use litesalt just to make sure I get enough (I don’t like red meat so a steak is out of the question — as is the potato on such a diet!) 😆

  26. C@tmomma @ #297 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    Boerwar @ #295 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 4:03 pm

    GG
    There was a brief 46/54 flare of happiness on Bludger last night until someone twigged that the figures were six months old…
    I am not sure if this is a re-run of last night.

    However, Evan stated that he was phone-polled by Reachtel this week!

    I subsequently found a 54/46 Reachtel poll from 25/2. So, you .are most likely right.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5739971623001


  28. I’d be willing to bet that even today, most people are unaware this is a deliberate – but largely unacknowledged – “Big Australia” policy.

    What do you think the “look over there, boat people” was all about?

  29. Very safe from carking it from Potassium, 1 banana = 19.2 litres whiskey

    1 bananas worth of potassium is $5,000 worth of my current favourite whiskey.

  30. warrenpeace

    My dad has 100% of his DNA, me mum has 100% of hers – giving a potential pool of 200% from which the 100% for each sibling is drawn.

    Say my parent’s share splits into four nice even blocks (it doesn’t, but it will help understand what happens) – Dad has two blocks of 50% each, which we’ll call Bing and Bang and Mum has two blocks of 50% each called Red and Blue.

    I can inherit (feasibly) Bing from Dad and Red from Mum, thus getting 50% of my genes from each.

    My sister can inherit Bang from Dad and Blue from Mum, and thus not share a shred of genetic material with me (apart from those bits we all have in common).

    No milkmen involved.

    (It’s obviously more complicated than that, but it gives you a model…)

  33. My wife is a pharmacist who does aged care reviews, helping to get people on the right medication. Her (very informed) view is that ehealth records will save lives as there are a lot of medication errors simply through people not fully knowing the patient history. Sure, find the best way to protect your privacy, but don’t be under the illusion that there are no risks to opting out.

  34. ag0044 @ #330 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    After various other government IT failures, who would have thought that people going to opt out of My Health would cause the system to crash? [sarcasm]

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/my-health-record-systems-collapse-under-more-opt-outs-than-expected/

    To be fair, my opt-out at 11.45am went through easily (for a government site).

    Gosh, after #censusfail, who could have possibly ever have predicted that? 🙂

    But seriously – this kind of debacle is exactly why people are opting out in droves 🙁

    Woud you trust this government with your most sensitive – and in many ways most commercially valuable – personal data? If so, I have a really great crypto-currency for you to invest in!


  36. Diogenes says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 5:18 pm
    ..
    50% of your DNA with each sibling.

    Isn’t it a normal distribution with a mean of 50%?

  37. zoomster @ #329 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    warrenpeace

    My dad has 100% of his DNA, me mum has 100% of hers – giving a potential pool of 200% from which the 100% for each sibling is drawn.

    Say my parent’s share splits into four nice even blocks (it doesn’t, but it will help understand what happens) – Dad has two blocks of 50% each, which we’ll call Bing and Bang and Mum has two blocks of 50% each called Red and Blue.

    I can inherit (feasibly) Bing from Dad and Red from Mum, thus getting 50% of my genes from each.

    My sister can inherit Bang from Dad and Blue from Mum, and thus not share a shred of genetic material with me (apart from those bits we all have in common).

    No milkmen involved.

    (It’s obviously more complicated than that, but it gives you a model…)

    Every one knows that every fourth person born is Chinese. This was most apparent in my children as my fourth talks Chinese all the time and I can’t understand anything she says.

  38. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/australia-to-deport-tamil-asylum-seeker-and-separate-him-from-baby-daughter

    A 30-year-old Tamil asylum seeker faces permanent separation from his wife, and 10-month-old Australian-born daughter, after being issued with a deportation notice more than six years after arriving in Australia.
    :::
    Australia routinely separates families within its immigration regime. At least half a dozen fathers on Nauru have never met their children, after their pregnant partners were taken to Australia to give birth. Husbands and wives, as well as siblings and parents, are separated by Australia’s offshore processing system.

    Family unity is a fundamental principle of international and Australian domestic law. Australia is a party to the convention on the rights of the child, which states that children have a right to know and be cared for by their parents, and should grow up in a family environment wherever possible. It is also a party to the international covenant on civil and political rights, which says the family “is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the state”.

    All the outrage about Trump and family separations. It’s happening here.

  39. NathanA

    The medical centre I attend already uses computer records. I’m assuming these could easily be loaded up to the Gov site.

    As I wrote earlier, this could be useful when dementia or memory loss is involved.

  40. Re ehealth records….garbage in, garbage out. If not opting out individuals need to ensure the information entered in computer records is accurate.

  43. Pegasus

    These policies causing family breakup are going to cause further mental anguish for the future.
    Detrimental to everyone and costly in the long run. So stupid.

  50. Re “My Health”, I won’t opt out, although I don’t trust / believe any of the reassurances or guarantees. No doubt in coming months we’ll read that a million records were accidentally disclosed, the Russians hacked the server or someone left a hard disk containing MyHealth personal data on the bus.

    However, I suffer from a few chronic conditions common among older people, being an older person. I don’t expect to be looking for a Job again. I wouldn’t be too fussed if advertisers or the Russians or even the Liberal Party knew I had high blood pressure. I figure that the advantages if I suffered a sudden health crisis away from home or collapsed in the street or had an accident would on balance outweigh the downside.

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