Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 17
1 … 8 9 10 … 17

  1. Compulsory Acquire Liddell?
    Why buy a clunker? And who sets the just terms? Why the f are we paying any attention to what Tony Dill Brain says anyway?

  3. Ar, when I installed my ac, the installer said I have to run it at least once a month. Something about seals drying out. This is not hard to do as when it is cool in the morning or in the evening, turn it on to heat cycle. When it is relatively mild outside say 12 – 16 degrees it is surprisingly low cost heating. Apparently, it is not a heater, but a heat pump. Apparently, it takes heat from outside and pumps it inside.

  4. 13% want Abbott as Liberal leader and Dutton 9%.Doesnt that show that RWNJs are the most unpopular politicians in the country?

  8. K Murphy tweets a reply to K Rudd’s shot at the ‘coup’ .

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 5h5 hours ago

    Enough about you.

  9. Citizen

    With the exception of maybe Coogee (Lib held – marginal) every other directly affected state electorate is held by either an independent (Sydney) or Labor (Maroubra, Heffron). I think it may only affect Coogee.

    The next two closet electorates are held by The Greens (Newtown, Balmain). After that is Vaucluse which is solid Liberal.

  10. Since most Easties can’t pronounce Albany or Derby correctly

    The locals regularly get their own ‘Nuriootpa’ wrong.

    Not to mention they have trouble spelling Harbour (Victor Harbor).

  12. Sprocket @ #320 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:16 pm

    And Abbott’s Pollie Poodle just happened to traverse the scenic Yallourn brown coal power plant today. One is reminded of Joe Hockey complaining about ugly windfarms….

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I hope they enjoyed the Global Warming-induced heat those things they are riding past have caused.

  14. “How does one pronounce Joondalup and Jandakot?”

    Don’t know about Jandakot, but one should definitely pronounce Joon-dal-up with a chosen heavy UK accent, that is what people who live there do.

  21. “Have a look at the replies to his tweet. He’s not a popular figure. I reckon most Australians just want him to naff off.”

    Nah.

  23. I’m not fussed by Rudd’s tweet as it isn’t going to do any real damage, but FMD what a narcissist. Such self absorbed shite. Yeah we get it Kev, you got knifed and everyone involved is a complete prick.

    The rest of us have more immediate concerns than revisiting your anguish. Like getting rid of this clusterfuck of a government. If you have nothing to offer to assist with that then enjoy being ignored old mate.

  25. Pity Sharri will be there.

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP

    This afternoon on @ABCthedrum I’m joined by @murpharoo @SharriMarkson & @joshbbornstein. Looking at Newspoll and other political issues of the day. Plus a preview of tonight’s #ABC4Corners investigation with @nassimkhadem. 5:15pm AEST on #ABC1, 6:15pm on #ABC24.

  26. Is PvO suddenly angling for an ABC job or has leaving SkyNews made him more acceptable to the ABC? Hes turning up in a few places.

    Not complaining though. Hes a sane commentator.

  27. “I’m not fussed by Rudd’s tweet as it isn’t going to do any real damage, but FMD what a narcissist. Such self absorbed shite. Yeah we get it Kev, you got knifed and everyone involved is a complete prick. ”

    Clearly all the very level headed intelligent observers and commenters on the problems Australia has with leadership uncertainty, change and capture of ‘leaders’ by small loud / stupid groups within party rooms would most definitely totally exclude that one from the sample. *sarcasm off*

  32. Four years into this country’s over-the-top festival of remembrance for the centenary of the first world war, Australia has passed the point of peak commemoration.

    No other country, not even Germany or Great Britain upon which the ludicrously misnamed “Great War” had a far more profound impact, have spent with such reckless abandon to commemorate dead soldiers.

    Having spent more than half a billion dollars on commemorating Anzac since 2014 alone, Australia now apparently has a plan, needless and reckless in my view, to blow another $500m – this time to renovate the Australian War Memorial.

    But wait, there’s more: Australia will this month open the $100m Sir John Monash interpretive centre at Villers-Bretonneux in Northern France – an arguably unnecessary museum dedicated to the already duly commemorated 46,000 Australians who died on Europe’s western front during the first world war.

    Add it up. From 2014 to 2028, when the (still sketchy) proposed war memorial addition would be funded, Australia will have committed or spent at least $1.1bn (in today’s terms) on new war commemoration projects, presumably excluding recurrent funding of the memorial itself.

    We should honour and never forget our war dead, of course. But this money would surely be far better spent on the living, not least the many hundreds of veterans, their partners and children, whose suffering is compounded by their struggles to win medical acknowledgment of, and government compensation for, service-related injury.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2018/apr/09/a-500m-expansion-of-the-war-memorial-is-a-reckless-waste-of-money?CMP=soc_568

  37. John Brumby once said, very smugly, that he knew the North East of Victoria so well that he could pronounce Whorouly. (W-rowly).

    He then proceeded to mispronounce Eurobin. (U-robin; he said “Euro-bin”).

  41. I didn’t realise this. We should ban live exports too.

    John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950

    Interesting one this. NZ banned live exports decades ago, 50+ years. It has fostered a massive economic boom — abbatoirs, meat processing, packing & freezing works industry. Value-add at home = jobs & growth. Australia, as always, took the lazy option. #auspol #nzpol @60mins

  42. Al Pal @ #382 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:28 pm

    Rudd is simply a narcissist suffering relevance deprivation syndrome. It’s a condition that will remain with him. And it will quietly fester in the ranks of the ALP.
    Rudd hates Turnbull, but he despises Shorten for what he sees as Shortens pivotal role in his decapitation. Kevin 18 ain’t going away.

    If I were Shorten, I would get Rudd involved as part of the team on the campaign.

  43. “WeWantPaul
    Read through those responses to Kevin.
    Just wow.”

    Yeah and we know the kind of minds that are writing those responses, we’ve seen the Kevin loving Julia hating, and the Julia detesting Kevin adoring chants of morons over and over and over again.

    As living former PM’s Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard and Abbott all have a place in our history and our hearts, and they are not going to change what they actually achieved and failed to achieve with a foot massage on 7:30 report nor a tweet. They may change a few hearts, maybe even a mind or two every now and then.

    The way a lot of the stupider and less mature posters here go on you’d think they would consider Abbott a better mind and ex-PM than Rudd. Time for them to grow up and accept that in different and better circumstances, with less backroom stupidity and a more intelligent united team, they could both have been good, very different but both in their own ways very good, PM’s, but that given the actual circumstances and what actually happened neither of them really put any runs on the board that weren’t almost instantly wiped away. Very sad for Australia, very sad for Labor – but true.

    I think by and large I prefer the way Gillard is doing ex-PM stuff, but Rudd is a very competent, intelligent and knowledgeable world leader, and a whole lot of nasty really dumb sheep-like ALP supporters that would almost certainly embrace coal power tomorrow if Shorten said it, need to get a grip on it, and perhaps leave politics to the grown ups.

  45. “If I were Shorten, I would get Rudd involved as part of the team on the campaign.”

    I most definitely would not. There would be no sign of or mention of either Rudd or Gillard anywhere near an ALP campaign I was running. Keating maybe, those two from the toxic years, yeah no.

  46. Steve777 @ #384 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:32 pm

    “Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR raised prospect of “compulsory acquisition” of Liddell power plant today re @AndyVesey_AGL , Unprompted. Says enough jawboning time for strong arm “

    Who’d have thought. Tony Abbott is a leftie pinko socialist.

    But there’s no ‘Sovereign Risk’. That would only apply if a Labor backbench said it.

    Torys have never objected to ‘Socialism for the Rich’ or ‘Socialism for the Corporates’.

  47. He then proceeded to mispronounce Eurobin. (U-robin; he said “Euro-bin”).

    I’ve always thought it was Euro-bin, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say it.

  50. WeWantPaul @ #481 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:42 pm

    “If I were Shorten, I would get Rudd involved as part of the team on the campaign.”

    I most definitely would not. There would be no sign of or mention of either Rudd or Gillard anywhere near an ALP campaign I was running. Keating maybe, those two from the toxic years, yeah no.

    I agree. They are both part of the past, not the future.

Comments Page 9 of 17
1 … 8 9 10 … 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *