Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 17
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  1. TPOF:

    If only the govt would appoint him ambassador to some nowheresville country on the other side of the globe! Or a job of any sort to keep him occupied and not causing mischief for Labor.

  2. Why would Syrian government launch a chemical attack when they are winning the war

    a) because it is a war
    b) see (a)
    Dont try to put yourself in the position of a Syrian general. Imagine instead a rabid bully in that position who is operating in an environment where not all his enemies are on the other side of the line.

  4. Confessions @ #301 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 12:49 pm

    TPOF:

    If only the govt would appoint him ambassador to some nowheresville country on the other side of the globe! Or a job of any sort to keep him occupied and not causing mischief for Labor.

    He is obviously not deserving of such a position but you can bet your house on Bill Shorten giving him a posting somewhere should Labor win Govt.

  5. Rudd is also a classic narcissist. Labor were warned about him from the get go. But did they listen. No. He and Mark Latham are embarrassments to Labor.

  6. Lately for some reason, they have Rudd doing commentary on those 20 to 1 shows on channel 9. Talk about The most annoying person going around. Sheesh!!

  7. That tweet was remarkably petty. Rudd had my sympathy when Turnbull snubbed him on that diplomatic posting (or whatever it was). Now I tend to think that perhaps the criticisms characterizing him as an immature jerkass (and Turnbull’s snubbing) were warranted.

    It’s 2018 now, nobody cares about anything that happened in 2010 anymore.

  10. It does not surprise me that Rudd sent that Tweet. He is a Labor rat through and through. He has serious issues with revenge. He is a lot like Turnbull and Abbott.

    If he can stop Shorten from winning the next election he will, it fits with his selfish political personality. Whether he is like it as an ordinary person I do not know, but the evidence of his long held political grudges and willingness to destroy the common good to salve his own bruised ego is legendary.

    Bahstard.

  11. An online publication today revealed taxpayers are forking out more than $1.1 million a year on Canberra accommodation costs claimed by 62 politicians who already own homes in the nation’s capital, and Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis is wrapped up in the rort.

    Thanks to The New Daily report, the outrage on Twitter was palpable, as taxpayers discovered they were footing hotel bill for members of parliament who are on a base salary of $200,000 and well positioned to look after themselves.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/981768972289785856/A1g03rqy?format=jpg&name=600×314

    From 2016 to 2017, Mrs Sudmalis claimed $16,008 in travel expenses, despite owning a property in the ACT suburb of Narrabundah.

    Mrs Sudmalis rents out the property at Narrabundah.

    Her series of 58 $276-per-night stays scraped in under the limit set at $285 per night.

    The rate is designed to cover the expensive costs of staying in a Canberra hotel.

    The figure now exceeds the weekly income received by a jobseeker on Newstart, at $270 a week.

    http://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/5326049/sudmalis-claims-16k-in-hotel-stays-despite-owning-canberra-home/?cs=203

  12. Victoria,
    Exactly, I thought he was the bee’s knees, almost bought the t-shirt. Then the stories about his time in Queensland in the razor-gang started filtering through and I did not want to believe them. More fool me, more fool the ALP.

  13. Lizzie

    Its an absolute rort. It should be if you own a property in the ACT as a politician you dont get the allowance. It should also be extend to properties owned by spouses and partners. Labor should seriously consider amending the allowance.

  14. Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie · 7m7 minutes ago

    I’m attempting to renew my Italian passport and discover I need the “permission” of my ex husband. This is for MY passport

  18. Puffy

    I never particularly liked Rudd. His manner was that of a pompous self important buffoon who truly thought he was the smartest one in the room. He still doesn’t get that Team Labor wanted him out of the leadership cos he was horrible. It had nothing to do with the polls. He has definitely been told this somewhere along the way, but of course, he chooses to continue to spout his own reality. What a d@@k.

  19. YES!
    And I have had dogs do that to me.

    Jolyon Wagg says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 12:20 pm
    PTMD

    Thirty newspoll wins for Labor! It is so sweet I want to nuddy roll in it.

    …with this level of enjoyment:
    Harley’s mud bath

  21. And Abbott’s Pollie Poodle just happened to traverse the scenic Yallourn brown coal power plant today. One is reminded of Joe Hockey complaining about ugly windfarms….

  23. Puffytmd @ #310 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:07 pm

    It does not surprise me that Rudd sent that Tweet. He is a Labor rat through and through. He has serious issues with revenge. He is a lot like Turnbull and Abbott.

    If he can stop Shorten from winning the next election he will, it fits with his selfish political personality. Whether he is like it as an ordinary person I do not know, but the evidence of his long held political grudges and willingness to destroy the common good to salve his own bruised ego is legendary.

    Bahstard.

    There is a clear message from Rudd to Bill Shorten. If you win govt give me a posting of my choice or your next for destruction.

  24. “Which of @TurnbullMalcolm’s advisors allowed him, today of all days, to be photographed up the creek without, it seems, a paddle? “

    Not only that, but the water looks pretty brown.

  25. Apparently both SkyNews and The SmearStralian has reporters following the Abbott Peddle, breathlessly reporting on every sub-stunt.

  26. bemused

    So you’re supporting Rudd’s undermining of the present leader of the Labor party?

    How far can blind adoration go…

  27. I’m attempting to renew my Italian passport and discover I need the “permission” of my ex husband. This is for MY passport

    This happened to someone at work. I don’t think it was Italy though, but another country.

  29. Keane

    If you were sickened by the footage of abused and dying sheep on a live export vessel on 60 Minutes last night, rest assured that virtually nothing will be done to stop it. The company responsible has been getting away with it for years, and the department allegedly responsible for regulating it has done little.

    Emanuel Exports is the company responsible for the vessel in the footage, the same vessel being held in Fremantle awaiting clearance for another live export trip. Emanuel has been responsible for the heat-related deaths of many thousands of live export sheep in 2016 and 2017. The live export trade has long known of the impact of heat stress on live export animals sent to the Middle East. In the dry words of a 2004 report:
    “ animals travelling to the Middle East during the northern summer (May to October) experienced conditions over 30 °C wet bulb, often for sustained periods of several days, with nil or little diurnal respite. The air entering the decks can be hot and humid, and it can become worse with the addition of heat from the animals, so that animals further from the entry points can be subject to extreme heat and humidity… the animals … have little opportunity to escape the conditions. Depending on the stocking density, there may be limited scope for behavioural modifications to decrease heat gain or improve heat loss.

    Emanuel Exports would know all about that, as would the Department of Agriculture, because for many years the company has routinely lost huge numbers of animals on its live export voyages to the Middle East. The six-monthly “Report to Parliament on Live-stock Mortalities During Exports by Sea” by Agriculture — assuming you can get the Department’s execrable website to download the reports — details the losses, year-in, year-out. July 2011, over 1000 lost on a 27-day voyage. 1200 lost in two voyages in November 2011. In April 2014, 440 on one voyage; 1700 in one voyage in July 2016. Agriculture says a 2% loss rate is acceptable for the live export of sheep, but Emanuel on some voyages can’t even meet that pathetic standard.

    …
    What action is taken by Agriculture beyond “investigating” and declaring Emanuel in breach of ESCAS? It certainly hasn’t prevented the department from continuing to licence the company for live exports — even when other companies in the trade complain about it. Indeed, as far as the government is concerned, Emanuel is a “success story” — a 2015 Austrade presentation lauds Emanuel for its “right mix of political and commercial connectivity, local representation & appropriate resources.” The company, by the way, is a Liberal Party donor in Western Australia.

    This is consistent with Agriculture’s entire approach to animal welfare. As Crikey reported in December, the animal welfare standard-setting process in Australia has been corrupted by industry interests and Commonwealth leadership has been abandoned. That’s why, for all that the current Agriculture Minister, Nationals junior David Littleproud, might confect fury at the footage, there is no realistic prospect that the system will deliver an end to the disgusting treatment of live export animals.

  30. Rex:

    No way does Rudd deserve a govt-appointed position after his behaviour, but you can’t blame Shorten for wanting to get him somewhere he can’t cause trouble. Because it’s become clear the last few years that he will go the way of Latham with his vengefulness.

  32. Puffytmd @ #310 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:07 pm

    It does not surprise me that Rudd sent that Tweet. He is a Labor rat through and through. He has serious issues with revenge. He is a lot like Turnbull and Abbott.

    If he can stop Shorten from winning the next election he will, it fits with his selfish political personality. Whether he is like it as an ordinary person I do not know, but the evidence of his long held political grudges and willingness to destroy the common good to salve his own bruised ego is legendary.

    Bahstard.

    As he did in 2016, I expect Rudd will be trying to help Labor win.
    Now what will ‘wonder girl’ be doing?

  33. Why can’t Rudd concentrate on whatever job he has now, and stay the F out of Oz politics.

    It’s like the Never-Ending-Story crossed with Carrie.

    If he cannot say something good, do not say anything at all.

  37. “And Abbott’s Pollie Poodle just happened to traverse the scenic Yallourn brown coal power plant today.”

    Did he stop do worship and offer sacrifice and obeisance to the Great God Coal?

  38. Without knowing too much about dual passports etc. Emma Alberici may have been able to get an Italian Passport in the first instance via her ex husband. Therefore in order to renew, she probably needs permission via him.

  39. bemused @ #322 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:16 pm

    Care to point out the lie?

    The triple-assertion that a “coup” occurred? There can be no coup against a position which has no Constitutional basis and exists purely as a matter of Parliamentary convention.

    The PM serves at the pleasure of the GG and of Parliament, and can technically be replaced by either at any time and for any reason. Those are the rules of the game. It’s valid to dislike them. It’s not valid to claim that people abiding by those rules have performed a coup.

  44. ‘Wonder girl’ was actively involved in the Batman by election, so I expect she’ll be around during the Federal one.

  45. Bemused.
    Rudd will not be helping anyone but Rudd. Whatever fantastic jobs he is doing, he should just concentrate on those and butt out of Australian politics. He did enough damage when he was in it.

    He is starting the same thing with ALP and Shorten as he did before. Inserting himself, unwanted and uninvited, into the election campaign at just the right time to take the gloss off of a political gain, or to change the narrative to ‘all about me.’ He must hate Shorten for some reason, to start the white-anting again.

    If Rudd does want a gov’t job, I would appoint him Commissioner for Live Export. Let his wondrous skills sort that out.

  46. a r @ #339 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    bemused @ #322 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:16 pm

    Care to point out the lie?

    The triple-assertion that a “coup” occurred? There can be no coup against a position which has no Constitutional basis and exists purely as a matter of Parliamentary convention.

    The PM serves at the pleasure of the GG and of Parliament, and can technically be replaced by either at any time and for any reason. Those are the rules of the game. It’s valid to dislike them. It’s not valid to claim that people abiding by those rules have performed a coup.

    Nice of you to help zoomster out when she obviously lacked the capacity.
    “coup” has a number of meanings and was used metaphorically, as has been common in the media and elsewhere.

  48. @ a r – that fight has been lost long ago.

    The definition of coup has long since expanded from “A sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government.” You can use the full term, ‘coup d’ etat’ if you wish to unambiguously refer to that.

    Coup now also means “An instance of successfully achieving something difficult.”.

    Considering that 2nd definition is much further from the original than “a non sudden, non violent and legal seizure of power from a government”, I think the fight to keep coup just for an actual literal coup is long over.

  50. Rudd has jobs, roles and appointments. So there is no damned excuse for starting up the white-anting again.

    He has enough to keep him occupied and getting the accolades he loves. He can just p%ss off.

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