Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Rudd had considerable advantages I never had, ditto Julia Gillard. Where I could have ended up and what I might have achieved but for the violence of male to female in this country, I will never know. PTSD plus physical damage makes it hard to do things like become Prime Minister or qualify for international roles.

    Judging by my children’s achievements I could have been made a considerable contribution in academia at least.

    Maybe that is why I resent Rudd so much. He had socially-assigned and personal advantages and used them so arrogantly and pettily without thinking of what it would do to people like me, the ones left behind, who depend on a progressive ALP gov’t to smooth the road for us. As long as he was okay, stuff the rest of us.

    So do not hold Rudd to me as some sort of icon. He can go suck on a centipede for all I care.

  2. I thought Shorten did well. Sales would learn much more if she stopped interrupting trying to be assertive. She is script bound and as such loses all opportunity to engage in informative discourse.

  3. For all the finger pointing it is actually YOU (you know who you are) that is doing the Tories work for the. … or at least you would be doing that if anyone actually gave two fucks about KRudd’s tweeter account.

    Oh please. Criticising Rudd’s comments is akin to giving the Liberals a pass? Where do you get this hysterical bullshit from?

  4. He has also held more positions, in more highly esteemed places, in the last four years, than the entire brains trust of this blog has in its collective life.

    And speaking of hysterical bullshit, you seem to have a particular penchant for it.

  5. Puffytmd says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 11:44 pm

    …”Maybe that is why I resent Rudd so much. He had socially-assigned and personal advantages and used them so arrogantly and pettily without thinking of what it would do to people like me, the ones left behind, who depend on a progressive ALP gov’t to smooth the road for us. As long as he was okay, stuff the rest of us”…


    If you truly believe this then may I suggest you do yourself a favour and read his wiki entry. He was certainly not born into any sort of advantage, possibly less than you.

    Since him, we have had one PM who, regardless of how good she might have been at the job, was never able, simply because of the means by which the position was achieved, and two others who, for varying reasons, are utterly incapable of doing so.

    I find it unfathomable that so many here, seem able to so easily dismiss the idea that this country would be in a far better place than it is right now, if we were currently half way through term 4 of a Rudd Labor government.
    Or Gillard’s first term after Rudd had retired and been pensioned off to the bloody United Nations or wherever.

  6. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 12:16 am

    …”And speaking of hysterical bullshit, you seem to have a particular penchant for it”…


    I really do try to be polite to you, but I honestly believe you are a dimwit, and should just fuck right off.

  7. I really do try to be polite to you, but I honestly believe you are a dimwit, and should just fuck right off.

    And spoken like someone who has the ability to defend his comments instead of just offering hysterical bullshit.

    And now we can add hysterical, abusive bullshit.

  8. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 12:26 am

    …”And spoken like someone who has the ability to defend his comments”…


    I tried to explain this to you last week but it clearly didn’t sink in.
    You are not worth the effort.
    Pointing out the multitude of flaws in your thinking is about as far as I am willing to go.

  9. Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott is running for the US Senate, he told Politico in an interview published Monday, setting up a serious challenge to the state’s incumbent Democrat, Bill Nelson.

    “You’re probably surprised, but I’m going to announce I’m running for senator,” Scott told Politico, joking that it’s one of the worst kept secrets in the state’s political scene. “You’re shocked, right?”

    Scott has served in the governor’s mansion since 2011 and has long been courted to join the Senate race.

    Asked if he considers himself a “Donald Trump Republican,” Scott told Politico: “I consider myself Rick Scott. I don’t consider myself any type of anything.” The governor would not tell the publication whether the President would campaign for him.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/09/politics/rick-scott-running-senator/index.html

    The NRA candidate? Would be good to see how the Parkland kids respond to this.

  10. I tried to explain this to you last week but it clearly didn’t sink in.
    You are not worth the effort.

    If that were true you wouldn’t be so sensitive to my criticism of you as just another hysterical moron and you would ignore me.

  11. Oh, and look how easy you make it:

    This:

    Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 12:16 am

    …”And speaking of hysterical bullshit, you seem to have a particular penchant for it”…

    .
    Is an excellent example of this:

    Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 12:26 am

    …”abusive bullshit”…

  12. You didn’t “critisise” me, you “abusive bullshitted” me.

    And then, accused me of doing precisely the same thing you had done, just two minutes earlier.
    You are the textbook definition of a bully.
    Unfortunately for you I can see straight through it.

  13. Republicans are increasingly worried they will lose control of the House in the midterm elections, furiously directing money and resources to hold and potentially boost their narrow majority in the Senate.

    To many, the Senate is emerging as a critical barrier against Democrats demolishing President Trump’s agenda beginning in 2019. Worse yet, some in the GOP fear, Democrats could use complete control of Congress to co-opt the ideologically malleable president and advance their own priorities.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-increasingly-fears-loss-of-house-focuses-on-saving-senate-majority/2018/04/08/6483ffc0-39bb-11e8-acd5-35eac230e514_story.html?utm_term=.4791f696bffc

    Rick Scott’s candidacy now makes sense.

  14. You didn’t “critisise” me, you “abusive bullshitted” me.

    *Rolls eyes and sighs*

    Would you like me to hand you a tissue? Yeesh, grow a pair instead of carrying on like a whiny little hysterical so and so.

  15. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 12:54 am

    …”*Rolls eyes and sighs*
    Would you like me to hand you a tissue? Yeesh, grow a pair instead of carrying on like a whiny little hysterical so and so”…


    You’re not making this any easier on yourself.

  16. Most of the reporters on the RW tv are lousy interviewers.
    Anyone not Lib is interrupted as soon as they start answering any question. Any discussion suggesting the Govt is dead and soon to be buried is challenged and shouted over. If a sore point gets hit, immediate change of subject.
    On come the Libs. Complete opposite. Dorothy Dixers. Saw one minister interrupt the reporter asking a nice straight forward question where he could hit Labor for a six and he changed the question to include the Gs as well. No objection. Complete role reversal. He prattled on and she just kept nodding.
    Makes you sick. And Rex, even with all that help, Shorten just keeps racking them up. He goes alright because he believes in what he is promising. Unlike those liars TA and MT. They deserve whats coming.

  17. Malcolm saying why he should stay. Said we deserve a stable govt committed to a great education system, efficient health facilities, a fair home ownership plan for young people and jobs, jobs, jobs. Also cheap electricity, tax reform, super reform etc etc etc.
    Quite strange really, I think he was talking about the other lot!!

  18. Mr Ed says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 1:57 am

    …”Most of the reporters on the RW tv are lousy interviewers.
    Anyone not Lib is interrupted as soon as they start answering any question. Any discussion suggesting the Govt is dead and soon to be buried is challenged and shouted over. If a sore point gets hit, immediate change of subject”…

    I just watched a rerun of that Stan Grant show on ABC for the first ( and last) time.
    He had 3 panelists, Amanda Vandstone, Tim Wilson and for “balance” some bloke who was a former Liberal party advisor.
    It has gone beyond a joke, really.

  19. I guess he had a hard right, a centre right and an I don’t know what’s right, so all points of the political spectrum covered.

  20. Mr Ed @ #823 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 2:04 am

    Malcolm saying why he should stay. Said we deserve a stable govt committed to a great education system, efficient health facilities, a fair home ownership plan for young people and jobs, jobs, jobs. Also cheap electricity, tax reform, super reform etc etc etc.
    Quite strange really, I think he was talking about the other lot!!

    Oh no, he was talking about his lot. The Rich lot.
    * Conservative governments as far as the eye could see. Very stable.

    * A great Private Education system. All else is just penning the sheep.

    * Efficient Private Health facilities. The Public Health system is just a training ground to pick out the best to go into the Private Health system.

    * A fair home ownership plan for young people where the Interest Rates aren’t too high for the Bank of Mum and Dad and they can write the home off on tax against their SMSF.

    * Cheap electricity with subsidised Solar Panels for those that can afford Rooftop Solar.

    * Tax Reform which involves Corporate Tax Cuts for Mummy and Daddy’s business and return of the cash back dividend imputation on zero taxable income.

    * Super Reform such as smashing Industry Super Funds.

    Yeah, Turnbull was telling the truth, just not the whole truth.

  21. #peachesnectarineswaronPB:

    Peaches and nectarines are the same species. Both can have white or yellow flesh.

    The only difference is that peaches have fuzzy skin, nectarines have smooth skin. That’s it. There is a recessive allele’s difference between them. Diddley squat.

    A bit like having straight or curly hair for a human, or blue or green eyes.

    From Wikipedia:

    ____________________
    Peach and nectarines are the same species, even though they are regarded commercially as different fruits. In contrast to peaches, whose fruits present the characteristic fuzz on the skin, nectarines are characterized by the absence of fruit-skin trichomes (fuzz-less fruit); genetic studies suggest nectarines are produced due to a recessive allele, whereas peaches are produced from a dominant allele for fuzzy skin.

  22. FBI Raid of Michael Cohen Suggests Mueller Has Found More Crimes

    The FBI is not playing with President Trump.

    On Monday, the FBI raided the office of Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen. They took with them records related to several topics, including payments to a porn actress, according to the New York Times.

    This search was not related to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s work, but rather appears to have been something additional, possibly uncovered by Mueller’s Russia investigation and turned over to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.

    But it’s not all Stormy.

    “The F.B.I. also seized emails, tax documents and business records, the person said,” the Times reported. Including “communications between Mr. Trump and Mr. Cohen…”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/09/fbi-raid-of-michael-cohen-suggests-mueller-has-found-more-crimes.html

  23. MORE :

    Ex-federal prosecutor explains FBI’s ‘probable cause’ justification for raiding Cohen: ‘It’s not good news for the president’

    “Having a search warrant executed at your business on a Monday is never a good day,” former U.S. attorney Chuck Rosenberg told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace Monday.

    To acquire their warrant to search Cohen’s business and home, the former prosecutor said, “the government must have concluded two things: probable cause that a crime had been committed, and probable cause that stuff or evidence that would prove that crime would be located in Mr. Cohen’s office.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/ex-federal-prosecutor-explains-fbis-probable-cause-justification-raiding-cohen-not-good-news-president/

  24. Puffytmd @ #803 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 11:44 pm

    Rudd had considerable advantages I never had, ditto Julia Gillard. Where I could have ended up and what I might have achieved but for the violence of male to female in this country, I will never know. PTSD plus physical damage makes it hard to do things like become Prime Minister or qualify for international roles.

    Judging by my children’s achievements I could have been made a considerable contribution in academia at least.

    Maybe that is why I resent Rudd so much. He had socially-assigned and personal advantages and used them so arrogantly and pettily without thinking of what it would do to people like me, the ones left behind, who depend on a progressive ALP gov’t to smooth the road for us. As long as he was okay, stuff the rest of us.

    So do not hold Rudd to me as some sort of icon. He can go suck on a centipede for all I care.

    Puffy

    I am not sure why you consider rudd socially assigned to priveledge.

    He came from a stuggling family and particularly after his father dies they were pretty near destitute.

    Now being good Catholics the boys were sent to Marist Bros a Catholic boarding school, but as charity cases, not family privileged. (This seemed to be commonplace in Qld Sunshine Coast where orphan kids were all helped. I know a guy who when his father died was immediately (at age 14) given a job in the Qld Public service where he completed his education secondary and tertiary free of charge

    While the older Rudd boy enjoyed the boarding school Rudd hated it( I suspect he was seriously bullied). He chose to quit and completed his education at the local country High School.

    When at University (he was under HEX so no fees) he had to work for his living. Indeed the reason why he was so close to Laurie Oakes was that they first met when Rudd was his house cleaner. So he scrubbed Oakes’ dunny.

    So while it is generally agreed that Rudd has deficiencies in the personal arena, saying he came from privilege is just wrong and unfair.

  25. Rudd had privileges he was socially assigned (being male) and family advantages. He was not privileged compared to Turnbull but he was bloody well privileged compared to a damn lot of us.

    I was not even able to finish high school due to violence in the family. Some nights I did not know if we would all be alive by morning. At 14 I was skilled at humouring a psychopath that the cops had no interest in. He killed my little pet dog ffs just to hurt me.

    (Oh, people knew, the school knew, no one would intervene in ‘family matters’. The cops just took his word for it. Women knew too. But who cares about some poor kids living in the old broken down house miles out of town?)

    My poor mother caught rabbits so we could have protein, at one stage.

    Rudd had school, a loving stable family, did not fear his mother (whose body is still covered in old scars) being killed, every weekend. He was able to finish high school and go on to university. He had advantages I could only dream of, so do not give me the poor Ruddy boy shit. But he was for him, and the people who needed his advocacy were dumped in his selfish revenge-fest. People like me needed him to support a party that could at least give us a shot at a reasonable life. But not Rudd, he had to take Gillard down no matter whom it hurt or disadvantaged.

    F&ck him. He should have joined the Fiberal Party, he would have fit right in.

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