Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Cud Chewer, I drive buses in the Eastern Suburbs. Don’t get me started on the RMS. I actually like trams/light rail but someone really needs to do a thorough clean out of the recalcitrants in RMS.
    Not sure how much vision you have but if you can get hold of the dvd Shooting Through. It covers the old Sydney tram network.
    I love watching that sort of stuff. Anyway it soon becomes clear why the tram network was shut down. Private cars and ws&h or os&h.
    Instead of diving in and wasting billions on a poorly thought out and implemented light rail system they should have told rms to improve bus running times by providing more Bus ONLY lanes. Priority at traffic lights that lasts more than 5 seconds and insist the police not only enforce the give way to buses leaving the kerb road rule but actually set an example by bloody well observing it themselves.
    The light rail should initially have been a loop from Circular Quay to Central back down to CQ. Probably via George St, Eddy Ave and Elizabeth street. Terminate the buses at Chalmers Street and Railway Square which solves the alleged bus conga lines in the cbd itself. The line to High Street Randwick Junction makes no sense at all and the one to Kingsford is probably justified only by the UNSW. Just.

  2. DB Cooper @ #2350 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    Barney,

    I thought we would have been ahead of the UK, but I didn’t think it would be as long ago as the 1930s.

    My source states 1976 for the UK. (Don’t have an online link, but this is the book: https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18152723?selectedversion=NBD4216323 )

    There has been an ongoing drama in WA over lead contamination, presumably from brass welds, in the water pipes in the new childrens’ hospital here. It has sat empty for well over a year while they have tried to fix the problem.

    The Pomes seem to be behind in most things like this.

    I was amazed when I arrived there in the mid 2000s that you could do your own plumbing and electrical work including wiring your house.

    It was only at that time they brought in that you needed to have the electrics certified by a qualified electrician if you wanted to sell your house. 🙂

  3. And just like that, the war was over.

    A perfectly executed strike last night. Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine Military. Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished!

    Move along, nothing to see here.

  4. Aqua,

    The old tram system was as popular as it was because there really was no competition. You had to be reasonably wealthy to own a car. As that changed in the 60s, traffic suddenly increased and trams were seen as inefficient. You have to remember too that the old style trams were non segmented. They didn’t carry nearly as many people as a modern light rail “tram”.

    As far as the current light rail system goes. Its actually a good idea but it would have been better had it been implemented first only in the CBD up to Central and then later extended. There is an argument that the “southeast” portion really should have been a metro.

    As far as implementation goes, the real problem is that TfNSW as the agency that implemented it and they called upon their pet consultants who as you can probably guessed, only understood heavy rail. As a consequence you got heavy rail thinking and ridiculous over design. There are a lot of good implementations in Europe but TfNSW didn’t have the nous to consult widely over crucial engineering issues. Just one little detail. The track form is over a metre deep in the CBD. The initial investigations for utilities didn’t go that deep. As a consequence they didn’t know half of the the unexpected utilities and unsurprisingly, the contractor wasn’t happy. But the point is had they engineers prepared to work on the design and refine it rather than just specify blindly, this wouldn’t have happened.

    Having said that, the pedestrianisation of George Street will be an amazing thing and the tram itself is actually capable of moving a lot of people.

    Bus only lanes are a good thing. So are segmented buses, and double decker buses. But there are plenty of places we could reinstate light rail and not only that, we could do it cost effectively if it wasn’t for the heavy rail mentality getting involved. For instance, one of the RMS’s classic fuckups is Oxford Street. Turning it into a traffic sewer and killing off shops. That should be light rail and a single lane (each way) of traffic. With buses given the ability to follow the light rail path.

    Similarly they are doing their best to kill King Street Newtown. The best solution for King Street is a re-routing of the inner west light rail line past Central on Pitt Street, down Broadway and then down King Street. Using the outer two lanes for the tram with the center lanes exclusively for through traffic. Disallow cross traffic at the intersections and you now have smooth flow on the center lanes (which means you get more efficient use of the road space) and for those who want to work or shop you get to use a tram. That solution also solves Sydney Uni’s problems.

    As far as buses and the CBD goes, the real problem here is the automatic assumption of a single seat journey which means lots of long winding bus routes directed at the CBD. Rather than having a more local transport role and taking people to the nearest rail station. With the CBD one partial solution is to keep buses to the fringe of the CBD or just out of the CBD. Again relying on light/heavy rail to do the work from there. I’m not saying get rid of all buses out of the CBD, but I am saying that in many places what you need is to have the bus as a feeder to a higher tier for transport, which would in many cases be faster. For instance we have bus routes clogging streets in Surry Hills that are mostly taking people from places like Roseberry and further afield.

    Another thing worth mentioning is the CBD still suffers from too many private vehicles (as opposed to trade and commerce) and there is too much congestion caused by using surface streets to cross the city rather than go into it. What they should do is take the toll off the CCT and put it back on to those crossing the CBD on the surface. To this end you could also do things like closing Druit/Park Street between York and Pitt (exceptions for buses, taxis and a few others). That would also ease congestion.

    There’s other more radical things you can do. But we do need more capacity on rail lines into the CBD as a matter of fairness.

  5. agoo44:

    You might – stress “might” – like Gov’t Mule. They say they are heavily influenced by 1970s Brit Rock. They are my current band-of-the-month (and have been for a couple of years). A fair bit of them on YouTube, and nearly all their concerts can be downloaded, for a small consideration ($15 each for a FLAC version).

    Thanks, I’ll check it out.

    I must admit I like some of the work of Crowded House. 😉

  6. Puffytmd @ #2345 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 11:25 pm

    cud chewer
    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-that-still-use-leaded-gasoline.html

    Rank Location
    1 Algeria
    2 Iraq
    3 Yemen
    4 Myanmar
    5 North Korea
    6 Afghanistan

    But another article says that Algeria is the only country not to ban it.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/leaded-petrol-algeria-still-legal-innospec-cheshire-uk-sale-export-tel-tetraethyl-lead-a7907196.html

    This article has a map.
    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/12/prediction-terrorism-middle-east-will-decline-half-between-2020-and-2040/

    Maybe it is banned but still used in those countries. Apparently it is made illegally in China. Some countries can’t afford to re-fit their refineries to make unleaded instead of leaded petrol.

    Seeing as how it must have been known (“As mad as a hatter” was based on 19th Century hat-makers who got sick from handling lead hat moulds) it is an outrage that it was ever put in petrol.

    Puffy

    It was mercury in the hat moulds.

    Lead works to injure developing brains and results in retardation

  7. Greg Hunt was a usless dill as Minister for the Environment but if I were forced to acknowledge anything even remotely competent about our ship of fools excuse for a government, it would be health, under him.

  8. Germany in the late ninteen thirties had one of the largest and far and away the most well equiped miltary on Earth.
    By comparison Russia in 2018 has a gigantic, clapped out pile of crap.
    It couldn’t effectively suppress Turkey.
    France, Germany and Britain would together wipe the floor with it.
    The American’s could stay home and watch the superbowl and it would make no difference.
    Even the Australian navy, lined up against Russias navy in the Pacific would give it such a black eye it would crawl back into its cave like a wounded bear and wouldn’t emerge for decades.
    All the panic mechant, warmongers should just chill the fuck out.

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