Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
Yes! I still remember the arrival of the meals. It was a special service.
But I wasn’t going to be told NSW didn’t have proper nectarines. A yellow flesh nectarine is still a nectarine and is as delicious as white flesh. Our South Australian dining companions (and the chef) were F’ing nectarine rascisrs
Absence of Empathy @ #746 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:41 pm
I have posted a link to exactly that on several occasions.
But the lies just don’t stop.
Whoever is saying Rudd can’t get a job, please stop. That statement is easily refuted by facts. You never know, he might have learned something out of the RGR years about not sh!tting in your own nest, or the one you are invited into.
I don’t know if this will make sense but reading the comments on live export I can claim to a total understanding on what is about. was w working cattle when I was 5 years old t(laugh) my father was killed in the R A AF in 1839 & my mother & her sister tried to keep the small property going & as I was too young to leave at home I was with them on horseback or in the yards.I have been around cattle all my life as my children now own a property in top end of N T & I am still there they breed live export cattle. The first cattle to leave DARWIN was many years ago % they were transported by air which was never going to be economic but established our livestock were suitable to there conditions, & then gave them help in feed rations & yard design & sanitation for animals to spend 3 months in lot feed to fatten the same system that grows your beef you get at the butcher here. Anamal farming can be cruel in cases such bad management or drought but overall the bad management get weeded out either by condemnation or not making a profit ,most of the original landholders in the 1800 hundreds were English or American such as lord vesty company which was a by word for not paying wages & not looking after the livestock,but there all gone now. Looking after animals can be heart breaking at times I always carried a rifle hopefully to shoot feral pigs and other imported live imported pests, but you can only guess my feelings when finding a cow that has been savaged by a wild dog or been attacked by a crock & got back away with no chance but for a slow death. you have to kill them to end there pain & handle your own feelings . Back to live export, the rules for handling cattle till they are on the boat are stringent & all stock are check at the holding yards bya vet & also tested for any infection or being unwell, then checked again prior to being put on the boat, this usualy takes about 7 to 10 days & about 3 t0 4 days on the boat .during this time. they put on weight which proves they are well fed an contented. I admit that some terrible things have happened in the past but the current process is controlled by inspectors at the destination including 24 hour ctc monerss 24 hours a day. NOW to the economics. there is no market in Australia for majority of these cattle ,the only market for cattle that are not prime fat for butcher shops except for manufacturing beef for small goods & hamburger trade .most local & export meat is fattened in lot feed for 2 to 3 months.The feed price has to compete with high export prices & therefore very high.when our cattle are fed overseas the cost is very much lower,with huge population there are massive by products of human food production,one of the biggest lot feed & lilling floor in INDONESIA is one of the biggest pineapple farmers in the world with his own cannery, guess where his by products go. T hiss is the same for there grain mills & all food production. If we wanted to do this in AUSTRALIA I am sorry but every owner of a pet (cats dogs polo ponies race horses even pet bird & on & on even non meat eaters in zooswould have to be put down because with a small population animal feed would have to pay what export & local buyers pay for human consumption ,Australia exports moast of its grains && other food. ABout 40 % of cattle would have no market as buyers want fat cattle not grass fed beef which is going to get shorter here when our farm lands get hotter & hotter (a nice wave to the mad munk) all best to bloggers
Rudd has a job according to Wikipedia? Really?
Then why is he wasting time on his employer’s dime with these nonsensical and vengeful tweets solely setting about satisfying his own ego?
His employer (if there actually is in fact one) needs to step in and set this asshole back on what he should be focused on on his employer’s dime. Ie his paid employment. Not whining about what happened to him 8 years ago.
Yeesh, what a baby.
WOW! A record paragraph from sam griffin.
Puffytmd @ #753 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:46 pm
The usual suspect.
I think a yellow-fleshed nectarine is actually a peacherine, a cross between a yellow peach and a nectarine.
But then I am a South Aussie.
Puffytmd @ #758 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:49 pm
I thought the white flesh nectarines were yellow nectarines that had the colour and flavour removed before sale.
Nectarine wars!
I wish I was as hard up for a job as Rudd.
Since leaving parliament:
Harvard.
Chicago University.
Royal institute of international Affairs, London.
International Peace Institute, Vienna.
Asia Policy Institute, New York.
Chair of Sanitation and Water for all.
World Economic forum, Global agenda council.
Honorary professorship at Peking University.
Member of Global Leadership Foundation.
And it goes on, and on, and on.
There is simply no way in hell, an unemployable dumbfuck like Rudd should ever have been allowed to run a country, let alone be permitted a twitter account.
BRING BACK TONY… BRING BACK TONY…
— WOW! A record paragraph from sam griffin —
I have saved it so I can break it down and digest later (probs post coffee tomorrow morn).
Simon² Katich® @ #762 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:01 pm
Next challenge is to do it in one sentence!
If a “peach” has smooth skin then it isn’t a peach. Peaches have fuzzy skin.
A smooth-skinned “white-fleshed” peach is a nectarine.
A nectarine crossed with a normal yellow “fuzzy-skinned” peach (which comes out smooth-skinned, but yellow-fleshed) is a peacharine.
The colour of the flesh, combined with the texture if the skin, tells you which is which.
You’re welcome
With all due respect to Sam’s dad, being killed in the RAAF in 1839 is no mean feat.
Sam Griffin
Thank you for your first hand account of the live cattle trade.
It is good to get the other side of the story. You do have quite a history there in the cattle industry.
I understand the reasons for the trade in cattle and the improvements that have been made, particularly since the footage of the mistreatment of cattle in Indonesia was aired.
Behind closed doors anything can happen, which is now controlled by the cameras and the other processes. But if that footage had not been shown on the ABC, nothing would have changed.
Sheep, in my humble opinion, unlike cattle, are completely unsuited for live export. Sheep can die easily from stress, overheating, getting down and not being able to get up again. In trucks they are packed tightly to prevent them from going down and to prevent panic as sheep like to be together. You cannot do this on a ship. I know about sheep because I spent time working sheep on sheep stations, but not cattle.
The only way sheep should be exported is frozen meat or in cans.
I would prefer there to be no live exports and all meat to be sold as value-added products. The logistics of this I cannot comment on as I do not know.
You might have noticed how I broke this post up into paragraphs. Readers are more likely to read your stuff if it is done this way, as people tend to slide past big slabs of text.
PLease keep posting.
mikehilliard says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 10:06 pm
…”With all due respect to Sam’s dad, being killed in the RAAF in 1839 is no mean feat”…
…
Don’t.
Just don’t.
After all the fun last night over NBN terminology, FTTN, FTTB, FTTC & FTTH, let me introduce another!
FttDP
NetComm powers FttDP solution for a million NBN customers
https://www.itwire.com/telecoms-and-nbn/82360-netcomm-powers-fttdp-solution-for-a-million-nbn-customers.html
And before there is too much excitement generated, read this:
An interesting article and includes some photographs of actual pieces of equipment for anyone who hasn’t seen them and has no idea what they look like.
The ATO piece on 4 corners was damning and disgusting.
Going after the small business as they know they don’t have the resources to defend themselves unlike the corporate fat cats.
My question would be who is driving the ATO to act this way?
As a govt owned entity the profit motive should not be an issue so as I say, who higher up is driving this?
— You’re welcome —
Racist rubbish.
As for Sam – yes puff, I agree he should keep posting. But I can’t give the post the time it needs to understand the content – on a small screen at this hour. It will have to wait.
Chinda63 @ #764 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:04 pm
Not quite right according to this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peach
I used to believe nectarines were a cross between a peach and a plum. I now know this is wrong.
How about you mob being a bit nicer to a new Bludger, eh?
Alan Tudge is a literal caricature.
Henry
Same question I asked regarding the ATO piece. The show also seemed to suggest the ATO is targeting smaller companies receiving research grants. Would this be a link to the government?
I’ve just watched the Drum and seen the Rudd tweet.
My observations;
1. It’s all about Kevin!
In something that is nothing to do with Rudd, he somehow makes it so.
2. Rudd’s removal was about his relationship with his colleagues not his Government’s position within the electorate, which is completely different to Gillard, Abbott and now Turnbull.
The tweet basically served no purpose except to say remember me! 🙂
Keep posting Sam, we’re just teasing!
Still banging on about the KRudd tweet.
For all the finger pointing it is actually YOU (you know who you are) that is doing the Tories work for them. … or at least you would be doing that if anyone actually gave two fucks about KRudd’s tweeter account. Mark Latham aside I’d say that would be about zero humans.
Move on peoples. Don’t you find it at least a bit amusing that you angrily call for KRudd to ‘move on’ on some piss ant anonymous intertgingy forum when basically everybody else in voter land has done exactly that already.
At least KRudd was a first term PM who steered us safely through the GFC and had seemingly recovered in the polls when he was knifed. You might has some reason to have some skin left in the game. What is your excuse exactly?
Here’s a tip. Just treat KRudd’s occasional musings as you would a DTT post and scroll on by.
There. Much better than the infarctions on display today. No? …
Barney in Go Dau @ #775 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:20 pm
I suppose any tweet, from someone like him, that says something non-trivial could be taken that way.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #772 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:22 pm
But we are! 🙂
mikehilliard @ #776 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:21 pm
Chinda63 @ #764 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:04 pm
Yes, like all mammals.
–How about you mob being a bit nicer to a new Bludger–
I was. I have saved the post (seriously) because I can recognise it’s worth – I just can’t possibly do it justice reading it right now.
It is always refreshing to get new posters and less of the echo chamber.
bemused @ #773 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:24 pm
One of the problems of social media, it can be quite self indulgent! 🙂
bemused @ #780 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:26 pm
Oops. Unintended post – hit wrong buttons.
But I agree.
The Tories love the live export trade.
Not only does it make their supporters lots of money it has seen the shrinking of another union.
The Australasian Meat Industry Employees Union was founded in 1906, and at a time when there were meatworks all over the country would have had a huge membership. And I recall they could be a militant lot who fought hard to preserve the conditions in what could be a demanding job.
I suspect the union is a shadow of its former self, their jobs sent overseas.
a r @ #776 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:26 pm
Peaches are mammals?
Where are their mammary glands? 🙂
To add to what Shellbell has said
I was at a work function for around 20 people at Aqua Dining, and it was really good. You do not get a private room (so if this is essential it rules Aqua Dining out), but we had a quiet corner. The food was amazing, and the view was lovely.
I can make other suggestions, for places where I live in South Sydney. They have private dining, and are very nice, but you will get traditional pub fare and no harbour view. Let me know if you need such suggestions!
Most farmer’s I worked for cared greatly for their animals and I’m sure would be outraged seeing the footage of our live sheep exports.
A dairy farmer, who new every single one of his 300 odd cows by name, once made me shoot one of those animals after it had been attacked by dingoes.
I was about 14 at the time.
I think he might have been attempting to teach me something but I was never really sure.
He only paid me $5 a day plus a bucket of milk and could never remember my name.
Old bastard loved those cows.
Let me get my hands
on your mammary glands!
https://youtu.be/zGVLcupKd84
and what is wrong with tweet about 30 newspolls by rudd? what?
is it his criticism of shorten re coup perhaps. tch tch truth hurts
he is not grand standing – this is a free society and he is entitled to make that modest comment
or was there another one tweet?
really, kevin must feel badly done by – re polls –
i an’t believe people here still seek to justify 2010
geoffrey @ #785 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:46 pm
There wasn’t much modesty in it.
If there was, he wouldn’t have mentioned himself! 🙂
geoffrey @ #791 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:48 pm
They revel in it. They recall it with glee.
It is quite unseemly.
geoffrey says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 10:46 pm
…”he is not grand standing – this is a free society and he is entitled to make that modest comment or was there another one tweet?”…
…
In the other tweet, he was begging for a job, because he is unemployable and Centrelink cut off his dole when it found out he had shacked up with his single mother ex-girlfriend and hadn’t informed them immediately of his change in circumstances.
Like any form of free speech, Rudd has every right to express himself. Just as those of us who found it an unnecessary, self-aggrandising and childish act, and saying so, is that same level of speech.
I was a huge Rudd fan, and despite knowing he had serious people-issues, the way he was removed was wrong and laid the groundwork for the ongoing instabilty we see now. But, the way he responded to it, made me lose a considerable amount of respect. Then watching The Killing Season, where neither R nor G came off well, Rudd came off as a petulant victim who was not responsible for any element of his predicament. Rudd was apparently completely oblivious to things that even us public servants knew about at the time… about his own office and management style.
But these wars need to end… we’re coming up on eight years on Rudd’s removal, five for Gillard’s and four and a half since Rudd lost the 2013 election.
Get. Over. It. No one is an innocent party.
A neglected Newspoll record: Shorten has now “lost” Better PM to Turnbull 50 times in a row. The previous record was 47 by Simon Crean against John Howard. (Better PM does skew to incumbent PMs and a lot of Shorten’s losses have been reasonably or very close, so it doesn’t really mean a lot, but with the amount that journos and insiders bang on about better PM you’d think it did …)
I’m afraid I have to disagree with you Sam, the images and descriptions of what has been happening to those sheep are appalling. They are sentient beings no less capable of feeling pain than ourselves and the economic ends can never justify the terrible treatment they receive. The camera doesn’t lie, unlike vested interests in the animal industry
Kevin Bonham @ #791 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:57 pm
Thanks Kevin,
I made the point early when Ciobo made the 30 comment today but didn’t know what it was exactly.
What’s the record for a PM being behind as the preferred PM? 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 10:22 pm
…”At least KRudd was a first term PM who steered us safely through the GFC”…
.
He has also held more positions, in more highly esteemed places, in the last four years, than the entire brains trust of this blog has in its collective life.
Maybe those pictures from the live exports ships should be broadcast in destination countries captioned ‘headed for your table’.