Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
In Parliamentary terms, ‘Christmas’ means the last Parliamentary sitting Day for the year, Thursday December 6 (actually the Feast of St Nicholas). In practical terms, the day before.
– – – Can any Sydney Bludgers give recommendations for CBD private dining / function rooms for up to 20 people?- – –
With or without pole dancers?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 5:51 pm
…”The ALP has to publicly disassociate itself from him once and for all before it can move on unencumbered. Rudd would then be seen as Latham is now – a bitter man with no home and no base and no authority”…
…
The day Labor starts taking political advice from the likes of you Rex Douglas, is the same day it should give up and let the fucking tories have at the joint.
Café Sydney at Circular Quay has a private dining room but it is expensive
TPOF @ #685 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
I would never accuse Gillard of that.
Anything in the CBD with water views that isn’t a total dive will be STONKINGLY expensive.
Maybe have a look at Darling Harbour, closer towards Barangaroo. They’ll still be expensive, but not sell-your-firstborn expensive.
Absence of Empathy @ #687 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
Don’t look for logic or sense from Confessions.
zoomster @ #689 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:34 pm
Yes, I unfortunately succumbed to the impulse to return a bit of fire.
Bill Shorten doing a town hall in Wanneroo, part of Cowan, and it’s standing room only, and Briefly just walked in.
jenauthor @ #690 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:34 pm
Correct.
That gentle, indulgent smile worked well.
— Café Sydney at Circular Quay has a private dining room but it is expensive —
No pole dancers.
Intimate, CBD with harbour views and affordable…. Catered boat harbour cruise?
I reckon C@t is right. Pub or restaurant in the rocks or quay with semi private function space snd near to harbour for a stroll with views.
Or go out further. Maybe north side – Does yacht club still do catered private functions?
bemused
So did Puffy. So don’t judge.
zoomster @ #693 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:35 pm
Perhaps because of the hysterical reactions it drew.
That probably made it a story.
Shellbell @ #742 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:53 pm
Actually that looks pretty good. And not too expensive – a couple places I’ve looked at have a minimum spend on a Sat night of $10 – $15K. Cafe Sydney comes in at $2K.
Thanks Shellbell!
grimace @ #747 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:01 pm
Please give my regards to briefly and tell him that he is sorely missed at PB!!
bemused
I doubt anyone concerned had read any of your posts…
Fess
Hope it goes well.
Last restaurant I visited for dinner in the CBD, half the people kept out getting up and leaving the table and then would come back a few minutes later.
I am not sure why.
Yeah, there’s quite a few decent restaurants in Kirribilli near Milson’s Pt station on the North Side, a few will have private rooms.
zoomster @ #712 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:03 pm
She is a repeat offender.
grimace @ #709 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:01 pm
Good to hear about briefly. Is he OK?
zoomster @ #716 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:07 pm
What are you referring to?
They are there for anyone who wants to read them.
sprocket_ @ #662 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:57 pm
Had Bill had a few sherries this afternoon? – he looked a bit jolly on the 7.30 report
Shellbell @ #755 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:08 pm
Smokers? If you lived in rural/regional boganville this is what that would represent.
Really only Aqua Dining has views on the northern side of the Sydney Harbour Bridge and it does not have private dining (unless you book out whole restaurant)
“At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%”
Did you mean minus 30%?
I haven’t spoken to Briefly yet. The room is crowded and I didn’t catch his eye as he walked past near me.
I’m with my wife and am under strict orders not to go off on talking to people and neglecting her.
Confessions says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 8:35 pm
If Rudd’s tweeting is “irrelevant” it can not at the same time also be “unhelpful”, “undermining”, “vengeful” and “alienating”.
Now, can it?
…”Of course it can”…
…
How?
I just watched Leigh vs Shorten. He did stumble briefly, but overall it seemed to me a solid performance. He finished very strongly.
zoomster says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 8:35 pm
…”As it turns out, Rudd’s tweet wasn’t irrelevant, because it was discussed on national television”…
…
Could you please explain this to Confessions?
Bennelong has a private area for about 20.
Great views.
Last time I was there we got into a disagreement with the Adelaide chef about nectarine nomenclature.
I don’t need to explain to fess that Rudd’s tweet was unhelpful, undermining and vengeful.
Absence of Empathy @ #729 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:18 pm
Now that’s what I call a challenge!
Rudd has reached his expiry date.
I wish he would just fade away.
He had his chance, twice, and muffed it. Now he is just an embarrassment.
zoomster says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 9:20 pm
…”I don’t need to explain to fess that Rudd’s tweet was unhelpful, undermining and vengeful”…
…
I wasn’t suggesting the entire English language, just one confused statement.
Simon² Katich® @ #768 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:19 pm
Just been Googling it SK. I like it, really like it. And my arts and theatre loving mother who spends her time at the Opera House will love it too!
Thanks for that.
What an honour for Shorten. Briefly and Grimace at his town hall.
Joyce gives Turnbull till Christmas. He will be gone by then, I’m sticking to my October 20 election.
He needs a job. Unfortunately nobody will give him one.
Fess
There is Kirribilli Club on the Northside https://www.kirribilliclub.com.au/
Also about out west but fabulous harbour setting is Sydney Rowing Club https://www.sydneyrowingclub.com.au/
Confessions @ #737 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:32 pm
Ahh the same tired old lie for which I have provided refutation on at least 3 occasions.
The lying must be compulsive.
Bennelong has the best artistic deserts, and old school service with a besuited maître de for each table. And the location is to,die for
‘It looks like Bill’s interview with Leigh Sales was all things to all people.’
There are none so blind……..
Oh dear, Vomitorium Trioli on the telly….must……turn…….off…..ca n ‘t br e a th e….mu s
You don’t sound too healthy Mondo, time to put the cue in the rack
Anyone else catch the end of Media Watch? The Rearview columnist (Joe Aston in the AFR) is a nasty little grub. Slurring everyone he can. Complians that Darren Lehman called him a shirtlifter yet has been calling one of the Oz’s editors as only being happy when he has his mouth full for years.
I am not a repeat offender. I can post my opinion of Rudd, and nothing you say or do is going to stop me. Also, despite your best work to inhibit any mention of FPM Julia Gillard from this blog, I will post my comments about her as well.
I judge Rudd on his record and in my opinion he is a rat. He damaged his party to exact revenge at being turfed out. He acted as if it had never happened to anyone else and was too precious to take it like an adult.
That is not an offence on my part, it is my opinion, which I will express, whether you like it or not.
mundo @ #741 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:37 pm
Whilst I have been critical of her on other programs, I think she actually does reasonably well on Q&A.
Confessions says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 9:32 pm
…”He needs a job. Unfortunately nobody will give him one”…
…
From Wiki:
Since leaving the Australian Parliament, Rudd has served in senior roles for a range of international organisations and educational institutions.
In early 2014, Rudd left Australia to work in the United States, where he was appointed a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he completed a major research effort on the future of US-China relations.[264] Through 2014 Rudd joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies as a distinguished statesman,[265] and was appointed a distinguished fellow at both the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago, Illinois[266] and Chatham House, London.[267]
In September of that year, he was appointed Chair of the Independent Commission on Multilateralism at the International Peace Institute in Vienna, Austria,[268] and in October became the first President of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York City.[269]
On 5 November 2015, Rudd was appointed to chair Sanitation and Water For All, a global partnership to achieve universal access to drinking water and adequate sanitation.[270] He has also actively contributed to the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on China.[271] Rudd is also a member of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council.[272] On 21 October 2016, he was awarded an Honorary Professorship at Peking University.[273]
Rudd is also a Member of the Global Leadership Foundation, an organization which works to support democratic leadership, prevent and resolve conflict through mediation and promote good governance in the form of democratic institutions, open markets, human rights and the rule of law. It does so by making available, discreetly and in confidence, the experience of former leaders to today’s national leaders. It is a not-for-profit organization composed of former heads of government, senior governmental and international organization officials who work closely with Heads of Government on governance-related issues of concern to them.
…
Fairly impressive for a bloke who can’t get a job.
Thanks Sprocket, I’ll check those out too.
poroti @ #16229 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:24 pm
Thanks P. I don’t usually go swimming in that septic tank, but it is interesting to see how desperate the Murdochracy is.
mundo
I just re-accredited my First Aid Certificate, if that is any help for you.
They did not cover Trioli-itis though.
Puffytmd @ #744 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:40 pm
And I will express a contrary opinion when I disagree.
As for Julia Gillard, I couldn’t care less about her. Some here simply use her for their own purposes to attack another former PM.
I would prefer they wer both left alone.