Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions

    I guess something along the lines of whole roll of polls and they’ll all end up being pretty crappy.

  2. Type in ipconfig and note you DNS server ip address; then work out if the device that is something you have control over. In this day and age it will be.
    I would be looking at that.
    Can you access the site from your computer if you connect it offsite (assuming we are talking about a notebook).
    Find the password for the devise (which I bet you didn’t set to something new); log on and check the DNS settings.

  3. Bill smiles when Liberal Leigh interrupts, answers calmly, waiting for the next interruptions

    Wait a second, I’m happy to answer, you have asked it a few times

    Liberal Leigh goes for the gotcha, gotcha, gotcha

  4. Jeezuz Bill calm down….nervy, jumpy, speaking too fast, allowing Sales to bully and badger, using stupid expressions, goofy attempts at smiling….he’s like Rudd on steroids….I. Can’t. Watch.

  5. So, how true is this?

    Katharine Murphy

    Verified account

    @murpharoo
    6m6 minutes ago
    More
    Shorten will not answer a straightforward question about what he said to Geoff Cousins on Adani. It’s a simple question. Did you say what Cousins said you said, that you’d revoke the license. Y/N. What we get is *crickets* #auspol @abc730

    It appears to be what everyone in the MSM is so het up about.

  6. Shorten should be able to deal with Sales if he wants to be PM.
    Seriously, do you think Keating, Hawke or Whitlam would allow some nobody on the telly to railroad them like this….

  7. Why can’t Bill get some help from Mark Butler…or Jim Chalmers or Penny Wong…the best media performers the ALP has. Calm, confident and articulate….time for some tutoring..

  8. WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 3:41 pm

    …”Yeah and we know the kind of minds that are writing those responses, we’ve seen the Kevin loving Julia hating, and the Julia detesting Kevin adoring chants of morons over and over and over again.

    As living former PM’s Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard and Abbott all have a place in our history and our hearts, and they are not going to change what they actually achieved and failed to achieve with a foot massage on 7:30 report nor a tweet. They may change a few hearts, maybe even a mind or two every now and then.

    The way a lot of the stupider and less mature posters here go on you’d think they would consider Abbott a better mind and ex-PM than Rudd. Time for them to grow up and accept that in different and better circumstances, with less backroom stupidity and a more intelligent united team, they could both have been good, very different but both in their own ways very good, PM’s, but that given the actual circumstances and what actually happened neither of them really put any runs on the board that weren’t almost instantly wiped away. Very sad for Australia, very sad for Labor – but true.

    I think by and large I prefer the way Gillard is doing ex-PM stuff, but Rudd is a very competent, intelligent and knowledgeable world leader, and a whole lot of nasty really dumb sheep-like ALP supporters that would almost certainly embrace coal power tomorrow if Shorten said it, need to get a grip on it, and perhaps leave politics to the grown ups.”…

    …….
    Very well said, I wonder if any of “the stupider and less mature posters” you refer to, managed their way through this highly entertaining little diatribe.

  9. Me mum went to book a motel locally for later in the week. She was told she was lucky to get a room because it’s all been booked out for the Pollie Pedal!

  10. mundo @ #674 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Why can’t Bill get some help from Mark Butler…or Jim Chalmers or Penny Wong…the best media performers the ALP has. Calm, confident and articulate….time for some tutoring..

    Well he does get support from all of those people when they are interviewed by the MSM. Haven’t you noticed?
    And Chris Bowen, and Tony Burke and Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese … etc.

    But Bill is the leader and he has to front the media when appropriate. Such as tonight.

    An I thought he did quite well, sitting back with a slight smile as Sales interrupted and carried on.

  11. Absence of Empathy @ #676 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:23 pm

    WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 3:41 pm

    …”Yeah and we know the kind of minds that are writing those responses, we’ve seen the Kevin loving Julia hating, and the Julia detesting Kevin adoring chants of morons over and over and over again.

    As living former PM’s Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard and Abbott all have a place in our history and our hearts, and they are not going to change what they actually achieved and failed to achieve with a foot massage on 7:30 report nor a tweet. They may change a few hearts, maybe even a mind or two every now and then.

    The way a lot of the stupider and less mature posters here go on you’d think they would consider Abbott a better mind and ex-PM than Rudd. Time for them to grow up and accept that in different and better circumstances, with less backroom stupidity and a more intelligent united team, they could both have been good, very different but both in their own ways very good, PM’s, but that given the actual circumstances and what actually happened neither of them really put any runs on the board that weren’t almost instantly wiped away. Very sad for Australia, very sad for Labor – but true.

    I think by and large I prefer the way Gillard is doing ex-PM stuff, but Rudd is a very competent, intelligent and knowledgeable world leader, and a whole lot of nasty really dumb sheep-like ALP supporters that would almost certainly embrace coal power tomorrow if Shorten said it, need to get a grip on it, and perhaps leave politics to the grown ups.”…

    …….
    Very well said, I wonder if any of “the stupider and less mature posters” you refer to, managed their way through this highly entertaining little diatribe.

    Good post.

  12. bemused

    And yet you’re happy to let a former PM attack the present Labor leader.

    Pull the plank out of your own eye.

  13. mundo @ #674 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Why can’t Bill get some help from Mark Butler…or Jim Chalmers or Penny Wong…the best media performers the ALP has. Calm, confident and articulate….time for some tutoring..

    You may be right but I was very impressed with Mr. Shorten.

    Having to talk over being talked over is not easy.

    Some people will never be really at ease fronting at such an event but time will see huge improvements.

    I can recall being terrified the first time I picked up a guitar and sang before a crowd of strangers.
    For me it got easier but for other not so.

    All together now,

    Bill to Leigh

    ♫Love me, oh love me ♪love me like nobody else can do♫♪

  14. Confessions says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 3:54 pm

    …”If Rudd doesn’t quit it with the undermining tweets and unhelpful, irrelevant, vengeful commentary all he is going to do is alienate himself from his former colleagues”…


    If Rudd’s tweeting is “irrelevant” it can not at the same time also be “unhelpful”, “undermining”, “vengeful” and “alienating”.

    Now, can it?

  15. …and given your unwarranted snark about Gillard earlier tonight, you’re also being extremely hypocritical.

  16. Jeez some of you are hard markers.

    I think Bill handled Sales well. And he got in his ‘vision’ at the end.

  17. ‘An I thought he did quite well, sitting back with a slight smile as Sales interrupted and carried on.’

    I didn’t.
    It seemed to me that he was too easily intimidated by Sales.
    He came across as an eager year 11 student hoping to impress at a prefect recruiting interview.

  18. If Rudd’s tweeting is “irrelevant” it can not at the same time also be “unhelpful”, “undermining”, “vengeful” and “alienating”.

    Now, can it?

    Of course it can.

  19. Absence

    As it turns out, Rudd’s tweet wasn’t irrelevant, because it was discussed on national television.

    So it must be unhelpful, undermining, vengeful and alienating.

  20. Bill did fine. Anyone who saw the Morrison interview followed by the Shorten interview with an open mind would have more questions about the interviewer than either of the interviewees.

  21. Predictably both Price and Bolt are saying that in light of the Newspoll result Turnbull must go and go now. The party cannot afford to wait any longer they say. Joyce, on the other hand, says Turnbull should be given until Christmas to turn things around.

    Bolt also says trying to make Bill Shorten look bad is not working. Says they need policies that will get the public’s attention. He identifies energy (specifically new coal fired power stations) and curbs on immigration as the way to go and says both Abbott and Dutton understand that.

    The listeners calling in are even more feral tonight than usual towards Turnbull. The hatred is palpable; and Lucy is getting a bit of a serve from them as well. It’s makes very good listening for a died in the wool lefty like me.

  22. Easily one of the best interviews Bill has given on 7.30. He was totally in command and his final answer just about blew Sales out of her chair!

  23. Confessions @ #684 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:33 pm

    Can any Sydney Bludgers give recommendations for CBD private dining / function rooms for up to 20 people?

    Depends on the sort of cuisine you want to partake of. A lot of the better Chinese restaurants in Dixon Street have private dining rooms. The big hotels certainly have them. A lot of high end pubs with dining rooms can be booked for large parties. Sydney is a big joint! Lots of options!

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