Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
I made that very joke to someone else earlier today, Aqualung/C@tmomma. No doubt the person I said it to was as amused as I am right now.
Eh tu, BeetRooter.
Sad that the ‘band is back together’ days have vanished like another of those Turnbull Resets ™
Mari @ #634 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
JBishop has an Abbott grimace! When did that start happening?
Thought I fixed that up C@tmomma. Should have been off and on!
Help desk 101. Just call me Moss.
Says the peasant who also says he can see a surplus just around the corner . Time for new glasses.
When is Barnaby’s Baby due? I recall April but could have it wrong.
William: where does it happen (home? work? a specific device?)
Are you able to ping the ip address directly?
DisplayName: home, and no (if by the latter you mean a ping test in command line). Other devices working off the same router are fine; the problem persists on my PC when I use my iPhone as a hotspot instead.
I’ll assume you’ve already done this William but the internet cable hasn’t been accidentally knocked out of the socket?
Used to be a common problem in the early days of networks.
sprocket_ @ #589 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:55 pm
Because a guy who, as Treasurer, hasn’t been able to do anything other than increase the Gross AND Nett Debt and the Deficit, really is leadership material.
*sigh*
And it’s been like this since late last night.
William Bowe @ #599 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:04 pm
Yeah, when it really happens, it sucks.
Wireless. Ignore my last post William.
You probably already have.
William:
How in blazes can you be locked out by your own blog? That is beyond ridiculous. Have you tried logging in using an incognito Chrome window?
William Bowe @ #582 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:41 pm
That’s exactly what everyone else got last night.
I will add, that Word Press has been vanishing a lot of our posts for no good reason lately.
Did you install any new software on your pc last night William?
This is my actual favourite bit from The IT Crowd (even if he does get the German wrong).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWDdL4J2Fvg
William Bowe says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 6:41 pm
I had not, Sprocket — and when I tried just now, I got “requested timed out” messages. So now what do I do?
1)Be very careful you could be under attack.
2)You have to find out if you name is being resolved
3)run cmd
4)type in ping pollbludger.net. If you get a response then the name is being resolved
5)If that doesn’t work ping 103.18.109.167 that is you without a name resolution.
6)If that doesn’t work you can’t get to your site
Need another site on that server to ping to see if communication or firewall.
This is why I said it is server side.
I think that narrows it down to just that PC then. Given you’ve tried different browsers and ping doesn’t work (via ip or domain name), it could be: a virus, your antivirus, a firewall setting, network/internet setting, date and time setting, parental controls. Check all those things :D.
By David Crowe
9 April 2018 — 7:09pm
Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce has urged Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to do the “honourable thing” and step down if he cannot revive his political fortunes by the end of the year, in an early move within the Coalition to set a timetable to decide the leadership.
Mr Joyce named Christmas as a likely deadline to decide Mr Turnbull’s fate, breaking ranks with fellow MPs who are defending the Prime Minister in public after the Coalition suffered another loss in the polls.
The comments are certain to inflame the Coalition’s internal debate after Mr Turnbull lost his 30th Newspoll survey in a row, days after also losing a Fairfax/Ipsos poll showing the Coalition was trailing Labor by 48 to 52 per cent in two-party terms.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-suggests-malcolm-turnbull-should-resign-if-polling-doesn-t-improve-by-christmas-20180409-p4z8ml.html
Confessions
Re bishop in David Rowe cartoon u are right I hadn’t noticed that
sprocket_ @ #622 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:17 pm
Should I add Barnaby to the Libspill III sweep for Christmas 2018 then?
I’ve been trying to find an excerpt from an early episode of “Yes Prime Minister”. The correct way to express ambitions, something like “I do not seek high office for myself, but if called upon by my colleagues, I might humbly agree to serve in whichever capacity I can…”
Jim Hacker was the compromise candidate when the two main contenders had skeletons in their respective closets. Maybe Julie Bishop will come through the middle of the pack that way. And I’m sure she’ll do what the Right tells her.
If no joy
Ping netvirtue.com.au
103.18.109.10
If that works then you need to start looking at your firewall
Via Mumble.
Linda Reynolds has agreed to come down this way to do a closing out WW1 public lecture for me in the winter parliamentary recess. I’d also like to get her to do some presentations on women’s leadership while she’s here. Her career has been impressive as a woman who excelled in a male dominated profession, and no, I’m not talking about her parliamentary career with the Old White Male Libs. 😆
If William has been locked out of his blog, does this mean that nobody is policing us?
Meanwhile in the Führerbunker, a gentle calm prevails 😀
.
“Mark Connell came back to his desk to find three missed calls from an unfamiliar number. Then came the fourth call.
Shouting down the line at a million miles an hour was the principal private secretary to the Prime Minister, Sally Cray, as she tore into Connell, who is the chief of staff to NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro. It was shock-and-awe stuff.
“I’m so f..king angry,” came the tirade from Malcolm Turnbull’s senior staffer, who Connell had never met.
“Your boss will cease (talking about Turnbull) and he will step down from this talk about Turnbull and the leadership.
“You guys are on the second rung; don’t play with the big boys.
………………The incident gives an insight into the workings of Team Malcolm; an insight into what some ministers say has become a kind of “siege mentality” which is gripping the Turnbull office as the Prime Minister and his closest ally, Cray, become distrustful of people within their own ranks. This siege mentality extends to journalists and media outlets who do not toe the line constantly with favourable coverage for the PM.
The Turnbull team plays for keeps.
https://outline.com/uEznJu
How do you think he’s posting?
He’s locked out on just one device.
William can you access the C panel of your site and change or reset your password.
Steve777 @ #625 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:20 pm
That was Party Games, the transition episode between Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister.
Watch it here: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5f7j8k
(Also available on Stan and Netflix).
WB: Have you considered it might be a DNS problem, try pinging the IP instead of the domain name.
ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #666 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:24 pm
He can still comment on another device, it’s his PC that is giving him grief.
mari
Notice the “cat” handles on the draws ? 🙂
I do get a response when I ping 103.18.109.10; I don’t get one when I ping netvirtue.com.au. What does that tell me?
Bilbo
Buy a new computer.
William
Do you need a reinstall, after backing up your data.
Sometimes when you play around with VPN’s it changes your DNS settings.
In any case its generally a good idea to use a third party DNS for security and privacy, cloud flare have one that has been in the news recently.
https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/dns/what-is-1.1.1.1/
And I do get a response when I ping what I understand to be my IP address, which is 103.18.109.167.
I don’t think it’s a matter of ‘fixing’ live export – I think live export inherently has too many points where Australian regulation cannot reach effectively. Live export cannot be fixed. It should be stopped.
And:
Yup, abandon those markets. If they insist on having live animals in their control to ensure various religious practices, they can raise the animals themselves. There is no compelling reason why we should compromise our standards for animal welfare in order to facilitate this.
It’s not vote changing for me in the sense that the Libs couldn’t convince me to preference them over the ALP by moving to ban live export (even if the Libs would, which clearly they wouldn’t).
Reinstalling Windows would probably do it, right?
But but 7.30 has dregged up an economist who says that thr economy is in better shape than under Abbott and Gillard.
Funny how that the defecit doesn’t matter any more. Not even mentioned.
There are issues with your name server; now that is a complex business as you could be using a local name server and it could be compromised. Are you using windows or is it a mac? Can’t help you with a mac.
When you try and communicate with a server, the domain name first gets translated to an IP address, and then you you contact hte machine by its ip address.
If you can ping the IP address but you cant ping the domain name, it means there is a problem iwth your DNS resolver.
You could change to using a public dns server like google or cloudflare as a test, im sure you can find a document on howto do it.
Reinstalling Windows would probably do it, right?
Ok it’s windows. A this stage you do not want to do that; a new windows install is very fragile; you have to work out if your under attack.
poroti:
And the POLLS embossed on the toilet paper. Can only imagine what that is hinting at!
WB: Try this first, there is a section on changing it for windows.
https://developers.google.com/speed/public-dns/docs/using
(It could be a 5 minute fix)
Oh shit… @frednk
Wayne threatened war…
Dan G: thank you.