Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Right. Like I said. This be one poll, the significance of which will only be determined in the weeks and months to come.

  4. Happy 30th Newspoll Brian Trumble
    Congratulations from all of us at PB for your great achievement over the last 2 years.

  5. Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated

    __________________________________________

    Every time he raises his ugly head the public are reminded of what Turnbull replaced. Abbott is the best thing going for Turnbull.

  12. I found it and it’s very ugly for Turnbull. Using his own metric, “it is clear that the people have made their mind up about Mr Turnbull’s leadership.”
    He’s going to get beaten around the head very badly.

    “The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott’s leadership.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-14/malcolm-turnbulls-full-press-conference/6774744

  16. Primaries:Coalition 38, Labor 37, Greens 10, One Nation 7
    Turnbull: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
    Shorten: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
    Better PM Turnbull 38, Shorten 36

    April 5-8

  19. WB. Your correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated are all true, but it feels like Turnbull’s 30 were over a longer period.

  22. Absolutely Dio. He can’t claim the Newspoll metric wasn’t a central measure of why Abbott had to go. You can’t spin those three sentences. The trajectory is clear. The people have made up their minds.

  23. Not too bad for Malcolm, apart from it being the 3oth and all. With over a year he is still in the game despite doing nothing much except pass a tax cut for small business. Imagine if he had some good policies! and a mining boom surplus to buy votes!

  27. No love for Trumble in the Netsats or PPM then.

    A little bit of rounding at the margins moving the 2PP and otherwise same concrete just getting harder around Trumble’s boots.

  28. That’s the first time I’ve read Turnbull’s speech about replacing Abbott. I guess he didn’t want to make Gillard’s mistake of not fully explaining why she replaced Rudd. I can see why Abbott hates Turnbull. You could hear exactly this from Shorten.

    “What we have not succeeded in doing is translating those values into the policies and the ideas that will excite the Australian people and encourage them to believe and understand that we have a vision for their future.

    We also need a new style of leadership in the way we deal with others, whether it is our fellow members of Parliament, whether it is the Australian people.

    We need to restore traditional Cabinet government. There must be an end to policy on the run and captain’s calls. We need to be truly consultative with colleagues, members of Parliament, senators and the wider public.”

  29. Oz headline:

    NEWSPOLL
    Turnbull loses 30th straight Newspoll
    10:12PMSIMON BENSON
    Malcolm Turnbull has reached 30 straight Newspoll losses. The same benchmark he used when ousting Tony Abbott as PM.

  30. I think theres a delay on this Newspoll story/s in the Oz as there is probably going to be big articles written and printed about it in the morning,

  33. Geez Dan.

    Jimmy Jazz has been trumping the Ghost on Newspoll for years now. If James J tells ya what Newspoll is you can take it to the bank.

  34. Primaries:Coalition 38, Labor 37, Greens 10, One Nation 7
    Turnbull: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
    Shorten: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
    Better PM Turnbull 38, Shorten 36

    Looks like something for everyone. What 2pp do you guys get out of primaries? Last Newspoll seemed close to 54-46 from primaries but headline figure was 53-47.

  37. Obviously this poll, being #30, will get a bit of attention, but in truth it doesn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know. Labor is consistently ahead, though not out of sight, and lead seems durable enough to suggest that it will flow through to Election Day – whenever it is.

    The trend of all polls is pretty clear: the ALP moved into an election-winning lead in late 2016, and nothing has really shifted the needle much at all since then. This probably suggests that opinions on politics have now set hard, and it’s hard to see what could shift it now.

    The obvious event is a change of Liberal leadership, but Truffles is still probably the most acceptable leader for the public, and there don’t appear to be any realistic alternatives. Abbott? Dutton? Bishop? It’s hard to see how any of these would prove to be more successful than Turnbull, but politicians being what they are, I suspect we’ll see some sort of movement here before too long.

    The other possibility for the government is some sort of black swan event – a war with North Korea or Iran, a major and mass-casualty terrorist attack in Australia, some sort of confected Tampa-like event, are all possibilities. But as much as events like those often help a government, it’s often only a short-term benefit, and any long-term gains would depend on how competently the crisis is handled. A big ask for this incompetent lot.

  38. All the things the Tories and their cheersquad say about Labor and Shorten have no effect.

    It’s is going to be interesting to see what they can produce in drafting a budget they hope will win an election.

  40. POLLING NEWS
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hits 30 straight Newspoll losses
    PM Malcolm Turnbull has lost his 30th straight Newspoll. Picture: Kym Smith
    PM Malcolm Turnbull has lost his 30th straight Newspoll. Picture: Kym Smith

    The Australian
    10:12PM April 8, 2018
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    Simon Benson
    National Political Editor
    Sydney
    @simonbenson

    Malcolm Turnbull has reached the leadership benchmark he used to unseat Tony Abbott with the loss of the 30 consecutive Newspolls despite the Coalition clawing back ground against Labor.

    The latest Newspoll to be published tomorrow exclusively in The Australian has confirmed that the Government has now trailed Labor for 30 consecutive newspolls, meeting the test of failed leadership set by Mr Turnbull in September 2015.

    However, the Coalition has managed to narrow the margin by a point to trail Labor 48/52 on two party preferred basis.

    It is only the second time since April last year that the Government has come to within this striking distance, and will give Coalition MPs hope that the next election may still be theirs to be won.

    However, he leadership contest between Mr Turnbull and Labor leader Bill Shorten has also tightened with the margin held by Mr Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister closing to within two points.

    The national poll of 1597 voters conducted between April 5-8 recorded a one point gain in the Coalition’s primary vote to 38 per cent which is now four points down on the 2016 election result.

    Labor dropped back two primary vote points to 37 per cent, shaving off what had been one of its strongest primary votes since 2015.

    There was no movement for the other parties with the Greens remaining on 10 per cent, One Nation on seven per cent and other on eight per cent.

    Voters’ assessment of Mr Turnbull’s performance over the past remained largely unchanged on the last poll two weeks ago. Mr Shorten, however, suffered a two point drop in his satisfaction rating to 32 per cent – and a three point rise in dissatisfaction to now level Mr Turnbull on both measures.

  41. Kevin Bonham
    ‏

    @kevinbonham
    Following Following @kevinbonham
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    This #Newspoll again supports the view that herbs and spices are being applied to the One Nation preferences. By 2016 prefs would be c. 52.7 to ALP.

  42. I know it’s a little while off, watch Shorten’s Budget reply … I think we’re going to get more clarity on what Labor is planning to do. I think the pearl-clutching over the tax policy will finally settle from some.

  44. The Budget is around the corner.
    Labor may take the opportunity to announce personal income tax cuts to be funded from savings announced and yet to be announced.
    This will be in contrast to the govt policy of corporate tax cuts.

  49. PvO:

    Turnbull still has time
    10:11PMPETER VAN ONSELEN
    Malcolm Turnbull’s 30 straight Newspoll losses won’t knock him out, but if he can’t turn things around he should step aside.

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