Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll from Ipsos just about does for Malcolm Turnbull what he can apparently only dream of from Newspoll.

Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.

The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).

The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.

We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.

However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

909 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Yes Henry – live export is a bit like fracking. They say they can do it without cruelty to the animals/without environmental damage, and at first they sounded plausible. Then things go wrong and they say “Oops, sorry, we’ll fix that next time”. Then things keep going wrong and it becomes obvious that they can’t fix it. Ban them both!

  4. rossmcg:

    Yes I agree wives might be problematic in a backpacker farmer situation simply because our backpacker visa arrangements favour the young and the single.

  7. I miss PvO’s “Newspoll, wow” tweets.
    Seems to have become a much better bloke now that he is no longer under the dead hand of Murdoch.

  11. Socrates @ #856 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:42 pm

    Late riser

    Yes that is the book. Sorry it is not cheap, it is a professional eng. text.
    https://www.amazon.com/Urban-Transit-Systems-Technology-Vuchic/dp/047175823X/ref=pd_sbs_14_1?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=047175823X&pd_rd_r=8DCQSPY1QEJJP5BKZWH3&pd_rd_w=LJPaT&pd_rd_wg=1ymo6&psc=1&refRID=8DCQSPY1QEJJP5BKZWH3

    No worries. My local library doesn’t stock it but if I get motivated I’ll try a library at the local Uni. 🙂 I noticed he’s got some publications at researchgate. Maybe I can learn a bit there.

  17. While everyone is waiting, checkout this 1m45s explanation of the 5 types of trolls and how to counter them
    htttps://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/980805254282432512

  18. Newspoll is like waiting for milk to boil. nothing nothing nothing, take your eye off it, froths all over the stove.

  19. In regards Abbott and Joyce, Abbott set the benchmark by advertising in the media for the results of him “sowing his wild oats” to come forward

    So Joyce is simply a copy cat – except Joyce didn’t shoot blanks as Abbott apparantly did

    No wonder Joyce and Abbott get on

    And just on cue Section 27 has Python in its description!

    And over cobblestones

  24. Pseudo cud chewer

    Again, I do not defend what has happened in Sydney light rail. The actual track slab would not be more than 400mm deep. But services within a shallow depth of that would still be removed to avoid damage.

    A standard truck axle loading is 8 tonnes per axle. Buses can be more. The Brisbane busway runs on a concrete slab over 250mm thick, plus sub base. An LRT/tram can now be up to 11 tonnes and could run on a track slab 350mm thick. So any of these modes can trigger the need to move services.

    Australian practice is bad partly due to poor legislation covering the rights of privatised service authorities in a public road reserve. In my experience they often exploit the situation, requiring new replacement services to be built for them at the cost of the project. So part of the problem is the need for legal reform in services legislation, which assumes that service operators are well meaning public utilities, which they plainly are not any more. In several urban projects I have worked on (road, light rail and busway) service locations can be 1/3 to 1/4 of the total cost.

  25. Maybe Wayne can give us the name of the person who supplies his drugs.I wouldnt mind some of what he is on.

  26. “Pats Karvelas usually has the numbers by the end of her show ‘The National Wrap’.”

    Noted as mentioned upthread she has called it as a loss but no numbers. Actual numbers released but embargoed??

    All depends on the actual movement if any. A movement away for the Coalition and the hyenas of the press will be over Truffles like welll aged raw meat.

  27. So Joyce is simply a copy cat – except Joyce didn’t shoot blanks as Abbott apparantly did

    Tony Abbott has 3 daughters! Also, just because more have not been found…

  29. wayne
    thank goodness you are here a breath of air
    i think 57-43 LP way – the dividend tax is unfair and bill will pay a price for it – teach him to mess with retirees .

  32. my bet 52/48 – the government has gone two weeks without blasting a foot off, which looks like competence for them. primary votes, approval ratings and preferred PM will be a big factor. I slight swing to the gov might see turnbull survive a little longer.

  43. What a legend Brian Trumble is.

    Lost 30 straight Newspolls as LOTO
    Lost 30 straight Newspolls as PM

    Surely no one else could achieve such a double.

  49. Right. Like I said. This be one poll, the significance of which will only be determined in the weeks and months to come.

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