Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
These terrified Saffer farmers turning up on our shores with their sad bundles of belongings tied up in boxes and blankets are hardly likely to be able practice their skills in Australia. They are unlikely to buy in due to highly inflated prices for agricultural land (and water), and the rural job market is heavily skewed towards seasonal fruit picking and the like. Family farmers are leaving the land in droves as inheritance practices remove sufficient scale from farming.
And totally rocks Purple Rain.
#legend
You are all dickhead as I’m not interested in what your say about me but when you bring my family into it
This means war
And why all this fuss over a party that only exists in Queensland?
Jack Aranda @ #798 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
Yep. Also, our Wayne is great.
I cracked it.Now we all know Wayne is Beetroot and Abbotts lovechild.
Late Riser @ #806 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:00 pm
A great what?
Wayne @ #804 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:59 pm
Families are good to be. So great.
Why do people bother with feeding Wayne.
Wayne is way too needy.
William Bowe @ #799 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:56 pm
As is Howard Stern whose shindig he’s singing at.
Dan Gulberry @ #808 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:02 pm
Imagination needed.
Wayne @ #810 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:03 pm
Wayne, you are borderline illiterate. Something steve davis will never be!
Finally hit a raw nerve with Wayne.Now watch him go off like a firework.
I once remarked that if white Saffers were turning up in boats on our shores the govt response would be vastly different, ie they’d be welcomed with open arms and we’d be shouting our responsibilities under the Refugee Convention from the rooftops.
You should be worried @Steve. You’re dealing with a master of strategy, and spelling… and coherent syntax.
If i had a lower IQ, I could enjoy the conversation with him.
What time does a Newspoll usually appear? Poor enyaW taerG can’t be all the distraction there is.
Hmmm.
Hey, leave Wayne’s writing style alone. Not everyone is a Professor of English.
I am not joking. I mean it.
Tom it doesn’t particularly matter what you call it.
If its a high capacity segmented vehicle with low floors people will tend to call it a tram and I don’t care.
All that steel wheels gives is less rolling resistance and energy consumption. A good thing but not if the cost of laying the track is crippling.
Where is Newspoll? #slowHandClap
Maybe Wayne has rang Newspoll demanding a recount as Turnbull is not leading 54-46 as he expects.
Late Riser @ #818 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:10 pm
Pats Karvelas usually has the numbers by the end of her show ‘The National Wrap’.
So, about 9.45pm. 🙂
I have a transport idea. Work out which one is the best solution for the problem. Then build it. Screw the cost.
The Saffer farmers would find things very different here. No cheap labor.
And this stat interested me: the dairy industry consists of around 4,300 milk producers providing employment for 60,000 farm workers and contributing to the livelihoods of around 40,000 others .
That’s a lot of help with the milking.
Still time to get my tip on?
54 – 46 2pp to ALP.
South Australia bushfire: record temperatures fuel blaze near Adelaide
Authorities issue warning for Inman Valley as weather bureau says sustained mid-30s heat ‘has never ever happened before in April’
Yuck! Doesn’t sound good. 🙁
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2018/apr/08/south-australia-bushfire-record-temperatures-fuel-blaze-south-of-adelaide?CMP=share_btn_tw
Dan Gulberry @ #819 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:11 pm
OK. Hmm, so either problems or milking or gaming? Is this poll is a furphy?
Puffytd
Hes only just learnt to spell his first name,now hes learning to spell his second name.
I’m going to be hopeful and guess that the WOW! was referring to a Newspoll result 55-45 to the ALP.
Methinks the delay is due to the hacks, ahem, I mean scribes at The Arsetralian clocking up some overtime trying to put a positive spin on #newspoll30.
C@tmomma @ #824 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:14 pm
Ahh. THX. Back in a bit.
Wayne, one just for you…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fn36l_z3WY
Tom.
There are plenty of non-segmented and/or high floor trams around. Trams run on rails. No rail, no trams. You are the first person I have ever come across trying to describe non-railed vehicles as trams.
Puffytmd @ #818 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:11 pm
Very droll!
Your protestation is just part of your humour! 😆
Well done Puffy.
You have to keep reminding people what a bunch of hypocrites the Coalition are.
The young today are going to be tomorrows homeless if the Libs are allowed to continue.
For those interested to know:
Antony Green
@AntonyGreenABC
12h12 hours ago
#insiders Calling election before redistribution is complete would see Labor gain 2 seats and the Liberal Party lose 1 because both states and the ACT must elect the changed number of members. The AEC would have to do mini-redistributions before election to match new numbers.
They could always use backpacker visa workers, but of course they’d have to be in locations attractive to such workers.
C@tmomma @ #836 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 9:20 pm
Problem is he’s not actually lying. The young are the best (or at least the easiest) ones to …
So 15m until newspoll drops we are thinking?
Confessions
But when their wives find out that there is no cheap (or free) home help …
That is actually true. Somebody I know who was looking at recruiting in South Africa found quite a few willing men but the wives were not so keen.
These tended to be older people with families. He said young ones with few ties were only too happy to take the punt.
Cal
Its buffering like Malcolms NBN and Sydneys trains.
“The Saffer farmers would find things very different here. No cheap labor.”
They could always come here on tourist visas and Dutton could instantly transform these to working visas like he did for the au pairs. He might even grant them instant citizenship. There’s seemingly nothing that man cannot do if he wants to.
If Newspoll is tonight it’s about 11.00pm it comes in?
I think steady 52-48
Watching again the horror of the live animal trade on 60 minutes reminds me how horrific this industry is.
Ban it and ban it now.
Remember the outcry when labor proposed this a few years ago?
I’m betting we hear crickets from the msm tomorrow. It’s disgusting.
Can’t guarantee safe passage for our live animals ?
Fuck off then.
Karvelas just told Abetz it’s a loss.
Apparently:
SM, I may be wrong, but was t the last NewsPoll 53-47?