Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll from Ipsos just about does for Malcolm Turnbull what he can apparently only dream of from Newspoll.

Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.

The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).

The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.

We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.

However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

909 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. These terrified Saffer farmers turning up on our shores with their sad bundles of belongings tied up in boxes and blankets are hardly likely to be able practice their skills in Australia. They are unlikely to buy in due to highly inflated prices for agricultural land (and water), and the rural job market is heavily skewed towards seasonal fruit picking and the like. Family farmers are leaving the land in droves as inheritance practices remove sufficient scale from farming.

  2. You are all dickhead as I’m not interested in what your say about me but when you bring my family into it
    This means war

  3. All these references to “our great LNP” by Wayne – is anyone else reminded of Chinese Communist propaganda of the 1960s and 70s, all overstuffed with adjectives?

    And why all this fuss over a party that only exists in Queensland?

  4. These terrified Saffer farmers turning up on our shores with their sad bundles of belongings tied up in boxes and blankets are hardly likely to be able practice their skills in Australia.

    I once remarked that if white Saffers were turning up in boats on our shores the govt response would be vastly different, ie they’d be welcomed with open arms and we’d be shouting our responsibilities under the Refugee Convention from the rooftops.

  5. Tom it doesn’t particularly matter what you call it.

    If its a high capacity segmented vehicle with low floors people will tend to call it a tram and I don’t care.
    All that steel wheels gives is less rolling resistance and energy consumption. A good thing but not if the cost of laying the track is crippling.

  6. I have a transport idea. Work out which one is the best solution for the problem. Then build it. Screw the cost.

  7. The Saffer farmers would find things very different here. No cheap labor.

    And this stat interested me: the dairy industry consists of around 4,300 milk producers providing employment for 60,000 farm workers and contributing to the livelihoods of around 40,000 others .

    That’s a lot of help with the milking.

  8. There are plenty of non-segmented and/or high floor trams around. Trams run on rails. No rail, no trams. You are the first person I have ever come across trying to describe non-railed vehicles as trams.

  9. For those interested to know:

    Antony Green

    @AntonyGreenABC
    12h12 hours ago

    #insiders Calling election before redistribution is complete would see Labor gain 2 seats and the Liberal Party lose 1 because both states and the ACT must elect the changed number of members. The AEC would have to do mini-redistributions before election to match new numbers.

  10. The Saffer farmers would find things very different here. No cheap labor.

    They could always use backpacker visa workers, but of course they’d have to be in locations attractive to such workers.

  11. Confessions

    But when their wives find out that there is no cheap (or free) home help …

    That is actually true. Somebody I know who was looking at recruiting in South Africa found quite a few willing men but the wives were not so keen.

    These tended to be older people with families. He said young ones with few ties were only too happy to take the punt.

  12. “The Saffer farmers would find things very different here. No cheap labor.”

    They could always come here on tourist visas and Dutton could instantly transform these to working visas like he did for the au pairs. He might even grant them instant citizenship. There’s seemingly nothing that man cannot do if he wants to.

  13. Watching again the horror of the live animal trade on 60 minutes reminds me how horrific this industry is.
    Ban it and ban it now.
    Remember the outcry when labor proposed this a few years ago?
    I’m betting we hear crickets from the msm tomorrow. It’s disgusting.
    Can’t guarantee safe passage for our live animals ?
    Fuck off then.

  14. Apparently:

    Richard Tuffin @RichardTuffin
    20s
    #Breaking
    @PatsKarvelas has just confirmed on #nationalwrap that #newspoll30 is a negative result for the LNP!!
    You heard it here first!!

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