Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
The company tax support question is a dead give away of the ‘leaning’ of the respondents in this poll … it is the only one I have seen where a majority support the company tax cut.
So, combined with the Redistribution, Labor are still in the box seat. 🙂
Also, maybe, as jen points out, with a high favourability rating for the Corporate Tax giveaway, we might be seeing a wash out with SMSF respondents also not being happy about the Cash Tax Refund after No Tax Paid policy from Labor.
I’d also add that the Uber Tuber’s bullishness about South African Farmers has had the desired effect of drawing some ON supporters back into the Liberal fold.
The Dow stock slide continues:
In other words, no matter what happens and how much the media desperately try to help this Government, the ALP remains ahead in the 2PP vote….
Rhetorical question: Am I too optimistic to conclude that the result of the Federal election is already locked in and the only thing left to speculate about is just the magnitude of the Coalition defeat?
C@tmomma says:
The Dow stock slide continues
Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 6:38 am
Thanks for that reminder. Bets are open on how far the fall will go. Looking at a long term graph of the DJI, it’s rather frightening to see the possibility that the magnitude of the fall could dwarf the GFC….
Trump is worryingly saying that this is just short-term pain for long-term gain… and that there is a solid buffer provided by the rise in the DJI so far during his presidency…. When characters such as Trump say that it’s all fine, it’s all under control, there is nothing to worry about… it’s time to grab your cash…. and run!
Alpo
Perhaps the only question remaining is whether the Coal will find another leader before the election. If they do, Labor mustn’t be scared by the resulting dead cat bounce. My vote is for Truffles to hang on.
“Am I too optimistic to conclude that the result of the Federal election is already locked in”
Short answer: yes.
John Howard was trailing badly in the polls in early 2001 and looked gone for all money. We were stuck with him another 6 years. It was a combination of the Howard Government addressing specific concerns (mainly kinks in the GST rollout), “events” (Tampa, 911) and the race card (Tampa).
Alpo,
Definitely too optimistic. Look at the clown they just elected Premier of SA. Just because. In an election, ANYTHING is possible.
Also, don’t forget what Abbott said, wtte that if the polls are anywhere near 51-49 the Coalition, in an election, can drag that back a couple of points to put them in a winning position. So, no matter how much of a failure they have been during the term they can always pull the wool over the electorate’s eyes, with the aid and comfort of the media, to just scrape back in again.
So, BK’s Dawn Patrol is still back on the other thread?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here’s all the lowdown from David Crowe on the latest Ipsos 52/48 poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voters-warn-liberal-mps-to-keep-malcolm-turnbull-as-prime-minister-20180406-p4z840.html
Peter Hartcher says that the Coalition is caught in a cycle of vengeance.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-coalition-caught-in-cycle-of-vengeance-20180406-p4z84d.html
PvO writes that while the looming 30th Newspoll will inevitably put more pressure on Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership, a look at the data tells us that he isn’t travelling as badly as Julia Gillard was at the same point in time.
https://outline.com/WHjH3f
And he says that coal-fired foolishness not enough to dislodge Malcolm Turnbull.
https://outline.com/gFhwKd
Karen Middleton writes that the Coalition’s Monash Forum claims its aim is to generate enthusiasm for coal-fired energy, but could it be as much about unseating Malcolm Turnbull as it is about fossil fuels?
https://outline.com/g7XEzE
And Paul Bongiorno looks at how the pro-coal right is going after Turnbull.
https://outline.com/wAsLnp
A messy proxy war over the future of coal in Australia’s power supply has slammed into a poll anniversary the PM would rather forget.
https://outline.com/rSY5f8
Van Badham wonders what the Liberal Party can do with its talent problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/what-can-the-liberal-party-do-about-its-talent-problem
Jess Irvine on how economists rate Turnbull against Abbott.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/better-than-abbott-but-not-much-economists-give-verdict-on-turnbull-20180406-p4z84y.html
Jacob Greber writes that Baby Boomers – approaching their last hurrah as Australia’s dominant political force – are the key to the next federal election.
https://outline.com/BxcKD5
Nicholas Stuart says that resigning would allow Turnbull to pretend he was a success.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/resigning-will-allow-malcolm-turnbull-to-pretend-he-was-a-success-20180405-p4z7xv.html
Mike Seccombe’s article is headlined “Turnbull and the boomer racket”.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/04/07/turnbull-and-the-boomer-racket/15230232006058
Tom McIlroy explains how the federal electorate shake-up could hand Shorten victory.
https://outline.com/mvxW9Z
AGL’s Andy Vesey is not going to stand being bullied over Liddell.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tarred-or-feathered-agl-s-vesey-shows-no-sign-of-budging-over-liddell-20180406-p4z83c.html
Gerard Henderson mounts his usual sectarian defence of the Catholic church with respect to child sexual abuse and ABC bias.
https://outline.com/BDgkub
More embarrassment for the NSW government over the stadiums saga.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minister-s-embarrassing-email-revealed-amid-sydney-stadium-saga-20180406-p4z86p.html
Aussie Home Loans has rejected almost all of the preliminary findings that the broker breached the law and called on the Hayne royal commission to undertake a proper analysis of the consequences of banning upfront and trailing commissions for mortgage brokers. Hayne must have hit the spot!
https://outline.com/c5JeYS
Julia Baird nicely dissects a “bloody week in history wars”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bloody-week-in-history-wars-as-alan-jones-takes-aim-at-opening-ceremony-and-abbott-group-seizes-on-australian-hero-20180406-p4z86l.html
Elizabeth Knight writes that Australian banks are probably only a month away from facing one of their toughest-ever decisions – whether to increase interest rates. It comes down to a choice of profits versus popularity.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/profits-versus-popularity-the-dilemma-for-banks-20180406-p4z887.html
The big banks are tracking and recording in minute detail every card transaction you make, and at least two of the big four – Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank – are making extra money selling that information to third parties.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/06/big-banks-sell-data-customer-spending-habits/
Michael Pascoe puts it to us that populism is driving the wrong numbers with respect to the immigration debate.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/populist-drum-beats-wrong-numbers-drive-our-migration-debate-20180404-p4z7qk.html
The Australian Taxation Office uses heavy-handed tactics to target small businesses, and one of its deputy commissioner’s admits the powerful institution sometimes makes mistakes.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/calls-for-more-oversight-of-tax-office-amid-criticism-of-its-tactics-20180406-p4z866.html
Crispin Hull has penned a good article on risk aversion and behavioural psychology as they apply to budget development.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-funds-for-poorer-schools-the-rational-not-popular-choice-20180405-p4z80y.html
Kirsty Needham explains the trade stand-off that could shake the world
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trade-standoff-tariffs-trump-xi-china-20180406-p4z81h.html
Trump is kicking own gaols galore over trade.
https://outline.com/RTChAF
Madeline Albright has warned Trump about the dangers of fascism going unnoticed.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fascism-goes-unnoticed-until-it-s-too-late-albright-sounds-alarm-on-trump-20180406-p4z84p.html
Australia’s biggest light-rail project, from Sydney’s CBD to the eastern suburbs, is in disarray amid demands from its Spanish subcontractors for an extra $1.2 billion and NSW government accusations of a construction go-slow that could delay completion beyond next year.
https://outline.com/xfRcp4
With the private health insurance sector seeing double-digit profits in a dormant economic climate, all their justifications for premium hikes are spurious, writes Arthur Marusevich.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/private-insurance-rising-premiums-and-the-truth-behind-it-all,11370
David Kane tells us why Warner should have appealed his 12-month ban.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-warner-should-have-appealed-his-12-month-ban-20180405-p4z81b.html
Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekly sports column.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/folau-s-comments-are-an-anathema-to-the-greatest-of-rugby-s-values-20180406-p4z89c.html
Australia is good at sports, and double standards, writes Nicolle White.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/06/australias-real-south-african-disgrace-nothing-cricket/
Malcolm Knox has found sporting relief from the ball tampering ordure.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/after-ball-tampering-saga-here-s-how-sport-can-pick-you-back-up-again-20180405-p4z81f.html
Clive Palmer has been charged over an alleged corporate breach, uncovered in an investigation by the business watchdog ASIC..
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/queensland/2018/04/06/clive-palmer-charged-asic-management-coolum-resort/
Another Michael West exposé – UK betting giant, William Hill, is selling out of its Australian gambling operation, this country’s biggest, while it is under investigation by the Tax Office
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/taxman-closes-in-as-william-hill-skips-the-country/
The federal government will block the departure of a live export ship next week unless it makes serious improvements to the conditions and welfare of the sheep onboard.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/06/live-export-ship-banned-from-leaving-dock-unless-welfare-conditions-met
With complaints about the NBN’s shonky and inadequate service at an all-time high, and after having made compromises that have “rolled his stomach”, NBN Co CEO Bill Morrow has decided to jump this sinking ship two years before the project’s completion. Morrow’s tenure in charge of the operation has – to say the least – being turbulent, with the belligerent American being happy to defame and disparage his critics — so long as it’s under the cloak of Parliamentary privilege. Former Internet Australia boss Laurie Patton recalls one such occasion.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/goodbye-bill-morrow-the-nbn-nero-who-fiddled-and-raged-as-it-buffered,11371
The partner of disgraced former assistant tax commissioner Nick Petroulias – who is alleged to have worked with him to put together up to $30 million worth of land deals at a NSW Aboriginal land council – has failed in a bid to have an ICAC inquiry into the transactions shut down.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/partner-of-former-tax-man-nick-petroulias-fails-to-stop-icac-inquiry-20180406-p4z880.html
Cartoon Corner
Lovely work from David Rowe on the ghost of John Monash.
And he goes swampside with some disturbing imagery.
Cathy Wilcox and the Monash Forum.
Peter Broelman has some alternative events for the Commonwealth Games in Queensland.
Zanetti thinks Shorten is doing it easy. – with a bit of help from Abbott.
Mark Knight has Newspoll 30 in sight.
As does Sean Leahy.
Glen Le Lievre on energy security.
The reincarnation of John Monash.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cee128822d6ab7bf1aab8bb2306b532f
David Pope on the indigenous issue.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/31320538bddef6bea97c622e308ce07039c55974
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-7-2018-20180406-h0yg4q.html
Thanks William and thanks BK.
William and Kevin if you are around, what are your thoughts on the irregularity of Ipsos?
It is now 52-48 from 52.5-47.5 and the commentary includes statements like
“The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll for 2018 shows the Coalition has narrowed the gap against Labor after a furious debate on energy policy, with the government now trailing by 48 per cent to 52 per cent in two-party terms.”
I feel Essential and the slightly less regular Newspoll more meaningful as they have many more samples each year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-06/here-are-chinas-five-options-nuclear-trade-war
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 34 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) #auspol
Greens at 12? Ipsos were spotted with their clipboard on King St, Newtown….
Question: Does Ipsos still ring landlines only?
dave,
I thought Australia was abundantly-supplied with Rare Earths as well?
dave @ #12 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 7:28 am
Interesting article Dave
Of the five “nuclear” options some seem highly likely. Partial implementation of them all seems probable – ie not enough to start major economic spin offs but enough to hurt the US.
The rare earths one is interesting. Surely this particular reaction would be to Australia’s benefit. I could see it being only a very short term problem as pothers would ramp up the capacity.
BUT given the military tension around the world, China would perhaps have a short term military advantage by blocking sales to Japan, South Korea and the US. If this option is used then I fear my Cassandra like predictions will go up about three notches (almost hype Bemused – but not quite)
lizzie says:
Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 6:46 am
I agree lizzie, Truffles will be allowed to hang on. The Hard Conservatives are thinking long-term and it’s a far better strategy for them to wait until Turnbull and his alleged “moderates” lead the Coalition to defeat. After that happens, it looks increasingly likely that the HC will gain control of the Liberal Party and start a purge within it in opposition.
As Neoliberalism is being challenged around the world, Conservatives are becoming more and more authoritarian. My impression is that the Libs will continue to develop in the authoritarian direction.
C@tmomma @ #15 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 7:46 am
Cat – We are as are other places. Turns out rare earths are not that rare.
But vital in many modern electronics.
The rub is all sorts of nasty chemicals are used to extract the ore and that causes heaps of environmental damage. Our rare earths were and may still be being processed in Malaysia.
If China restricted supply other places would replace them but there would be disruption and price increases etc.
Does TA really believe he can achieve anything except chaos? Is he so determined on revenge that he doesn’t care what happens to the Party which has nurtured him for so long?
Dave
It would seem that there would be short term disruptionand the price of electronics would go up.
That is not especially catstrophic.
I might add that if the US or Australia or Russia or Portugal etc have allowed a situation to develop whereby they rely on ANY other nation for vital components of their military hardware, they have rocks in their heads. This of course also applies to steel, medicines, trucks etc – ie ANY vital commodity.
C@tmomma: Ipsos has never only rung landlines.
The John R: I feel Essential and Newspoll are more useful as neither perpetually exaggerates the Green vote and also because of their more regular tracking. Ipsos is also fairly volatile but I don’t think that would be a big problem by itself if it came out more often. The big problem is Fairfax writers perpetually engaging in ridiculous displays of house-pollster bias in which they have to pretend Ipsos is a big deal because it’s their poll. I suspect that the parties just ignore it.
Thanks for the heads up, Mr Bonham. 🙂
While you’re there, do you know which pollsters still only call landlines, or do they all vary the type of phones they call now?
Peter Hartcher puts his finger on it:
From Paul Karp’s analysis:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Politics+AUS&utm_term=270430&subid=7341516&CMP=ema_792
The Greens have accused Labor of a “gerrymander” after the Australian Electoral Commission published a draft redistribution creating two new Labor-leaning seats and other knock-on changes that potentially benefit the federal opposition.
How can Labor create a gerrymander? I thought the AEC was an independent body?
Well Don there is anold strory of the time when Fred Daly was the minister in charge of the electoral office.
He apparently kept a big electoral map on his wall with pins in it. If he was trying to get unruly MPs to behave he invited them to his office and the pins would move around.
It is probably just a funny story, but to assume “independence” is a bit naiive
don
I fear the Greens don’t always live in the real world. If they’re going to take charge, they need to learn the rules.
The Greens have accused Labor of a “gerrymander” after the Australian Electoral Commission published a draft redistribution creating two new Labor-leaning seats and other knock-on changes that potentially benefit the federal opposition.
How can Labor create a gerrymander? I thought the AEC was an independent body?
Yes but they take representations from all parties and others and so the ALP would have been part of that.
The sense of entitlement runs deep in the DNA of the Greens – hence they want $30k for people to do nothing AND want their seats protected.
Their inner city socialism is stronger than the Nats agrarian socialism.
Resurrection comes to once dead Guardian, with an ‘exclusive’ on Dutton.
Once a copper, always a copper, with PM clearly in his sights, rigid ideologue, break before you bend.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/07/peter-dutton-liberal-party-home-affairs-minister
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/
On 21 February 1984 following major amendments to the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 the Australian Electoral Commission was established as an independent statutory authority.
“I fear the Greens don’t always live in the real world. If they’re going to take charge, they need to learn the rules.”
Exactly it is a bit trumpesque, doesn’t matter how stupid or patently wrong what they say is a core of their sheep, opps I mean followers, will believe it.
daretotread. @ #25 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 5:25 am
Yes, it’s a funny story and only you could use it to try and give any credence to the Green’s ridiculous assertions of gerrymandering! 🙂
Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s wrap. The outline.com articles are now working and I can read them. Even the Saturday Paper ones.
Holden Hillbilly says:
Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 8:32 am
Yes but they take representations from all parties and others and so the ALP would have been part of that.
The sense of entitlement runs deep in the DNA of the Greens – hence they want $30k for people to do nothing AND want their seats protected.
Fair enough, but I would assume that the LNP and the Greens also made submissions, and the AEC took their advice, then made a decision independently of that advice.
Their inner city socialism is stronger than the Nats agrarian socialism.
I reckon it would be a very close run race!
The other absurdity is the redistribution isn’t in labor’s favour, it is just less unfavourable.
In the greens fevered imagination there must have been something like this:
ALP 1: We have the independent commissioners in our pocket lets take advantage.
ALP 2: Yeah ok lets have them work on boundaries so we can win with only 49% of the vote.
ALP 1: Hold on no no no lets fix it so the Libs can win with only 49.7% of the vote…..
Trumpesque.
lizzie @ #26 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 5:32 am
Add dtt’s support to the theory certainly helps to put it out there in LaLaLand! 🙂
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/joseph-schmitz-trump-adviser-clinton-emails/index.html
With the dreaded number 30 imminent, with the likely leadershit and probable resultant reshuffle of deckchairs, I thought that this Python clip would best describe the dramatic resignation speeches of Turnbull and his favoured ministers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYNnF3TjSEw
Tom.
The redistribution in Victoria was always likely to be favourable to Labour as they, at the last election, polled better there than the others, so they should hold more seats than the others. 🙂
This is a profile of Dutton which sheds a little light on the man, but cheers me not at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/07/peter-dutton-liberal-party-home-affairs-minister
Tom,
Malcolm’s not going to go easily! 🙂
C@tmomma: There aren’t any major pollsters that still conduct polling exclusively by landline. A recent Lonergan seat poll was all-landline and some EMRS Tasmanian polling is also all-landline.
PS: For multiple reasons, my preferred title is Dr not Mr.
I reckon Dutton will be a Liberal PM at some point.
Of course the Labor party would have made representations to the AEC during the consultation period of the electoral resdistribution. These would have addressed criteria including communities of interest, local government boundaries and so on, which by a no doubt happy coincidence would have advantaged Labor had they been adopted. The Liberals and other parties would have done the same. But the AEC has the final call.
lizzie @ #39 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 5:49 am
That it’s in the Guardian says everything about the Liberal leadershit.
It’s on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And the Potato is a contender. 🙂
jenauthor @ #1 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 5:41 am
I think you’ve nailed it. If Ipsos is right, Labor’s internal polling on this issue is stuffed. I know which one I would prefer.
If someone keeps their landline number, but it is serviced through the NBN, is that a landline poll, or a mobile poll? Asking for a friend.
Just like the non-submission to the FWC about minimum wage, were the greens too lazy or too busy fighting each other to put a submission into the AEC.
Their lying about Labor is same/same with the Libs, lowlifes.
Kevin
My mum has a PhD and used to put her title on things like plane tickets. Until one day on a flight she got asked if she were a medical doctor. Since then she has used “Ms”.
Who are the future PMs who were widely identified as such before they became PM? Hawke and Keating come to mind. Lots of future Liberal PMs were identified in the Hawke-Keating years who never made it, while Howard was written off until the last year of what must be Labor’s golden age. Likewise, Abbott was written off. Costello was all but anointed but walked away.
So is Dutton one of the future PMs? I fear he might be, especially if he isn’t ‘burnt’ now. At 47 he’s young enough to outlast a few terms in Opposition if he is prepared to stay on. In 2027 he’ll be the same age as John Howard when he became PM. On the other hand, maybe he would prefer to go back and concentrate on making money rather than spend time in Opposition.